Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019

[Scooby91]

You don't KNOW he'd have finished second in the Arkle. That's a bit like me saying I KNOW Saint Calvafos would have won the Arkle on all known form if Petit Mouchoir didn't run.

Definitely not a valid reason to back him, the rest of the points are valid enough to have a go at 25/1 though.

I expect he'll come up short but wouldn't rule it out now

That wouldn't make sense as st calvados ran in the race got his ground and came up well short, that was the 1st time he'd faced some real opposition and On all known form he's beat nothing to date.
Tycoon Prince, Diego du charmil whos average, NHH who just dosent act on heavy and tree of liberty.


Whether you want to believe it or not, take out footpad completely from his run last week who clearly diddnt run his race, and he's shown no improvement there.

[Kevloaf]

That wouldn't make sense as st calvados ran in the race got his ground and came up well short, that was the 1st time he'd faced some real opposition and On all known form he's beat nothing to date.
Tycoon Prince, Diego du charmil whos average, NHH who just dosent act on heavy and tree of liberty.


Whether you want to believe it or not, take out footpad completely from his run last week who clearly diddnt run his race, and he's shown no improvement there.

So saint calvados' true running is the Arkle run?

You genuinly are saying that SC ran to the same mark in the Arkle as he did in Ireland at the weekend?

All I'm saying to you is you can't say for sure Sceau Royal would have been second in the Arkle.

[Scooby91]

So saint calvados' true running is the Arkle run?

You genuinly are saying that SC ran to the same mark in the Arkle as he did in Ireland at the weekend?

All I'm saying to you is you can't say for sure Sceau Royal would have been second in the Arkle.

I don't know how close to his ability he ran in the arkle, until he runs in a simular quality race I can't say either way for certain.
My point is just that he's stepped up twice against the top tree and got beat out of sight both times. His run in Ireland wasn't a step up on what he'd done pre Cheltenham he just beat a very limited bunch there. Aslong as your willing to remove footpad (which Imo i personally think is a given that he diddnt run to anything like he had previous, when he's spanked the 2nd 25L eased down as a novice)

I can't say for certain and I'm not that SR would have 100% been 2nd, he literally could have won the arkle. all i can say is he was the rightful 2nd fav pre injury and he beat the horse that finished 2nd in the arkle on the bit cruising to victory.
So IF he retains his ability after injury and beats him in a simular style in the schloer. He's a very solid bet imo at 25s ew 1/4 when nobody can say for a fact that SR couldn't have won that arkle and be potentially better than footpad.

Where as imo with st calvados there's no way he would have beat that footpad that won the arkle. And its hard to argue it when hes ran in the race. And he's beat little to suggest his form should have been dramatically different in that context. As anyone he's beat would have been a back marker.

[Kevloaf]

I'm out pretty much all of tonight I think, so will reply when I can ... but you've said he's been against the top tree twice and come up short.

He had won every race bar two, the Arkle, where he clearly got lit up and didn't run his race, and over hurdles in France when he went off 2nd fav to the wonder horse De Bon Couer ... so give me chance to reply to your latest message, but I'm right in thinking you're rubbishing St Calvados as a grade 1 horse on his Arkle run, and a run over hurdles in France?

[Scooby91]

I'm out pretty much all of tonight I think, so will reply when I can ... but you've said he's been against the top tree twice and come up short.

He had won every race bar two, the Arkle, where he clearly got lit up and didn't run his race, and over hurdles in France when he went off 2nd fav to the wonder horse De Bon Couer ... so give me chance to reply to your latest message, but I'm right in thinking you're rubbishing St Calvados as a grade 1 horse on his Arkle run, and a run over hurdles in France?

That's the 2 runs yes he wasn't 2nd behind de bon Coeur he literally ran the same race as the arkle and badly dissapointed when he was upped to that grade.

He's done exactly the same over fences beat a few limited horses then gone and done that.

And he's just gone and beat a limited bunch in ireland (if you agree footpad wasn't right)

He's just about to go up in grade again. Which is where well see if he does the same And get beat by something else as well as Altior.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Incidentally @PolzeathRatings who gets mentioned a bit on here has been banging on about Saint Calcados as a fantastic e/w proposition against Altior in the Tingle Creek for about 6 months, largely based on the rating he gave him after his win last year at Warwick which he describes as freakish. Anyway, he's twisted my arm for a couple of points each way at 5s with BFSB

[archie]

Saint Calvados:
Well below par in the Arkle.
No better at Naas than at Warwick. High 150s about right.
Probably about right at 5/1 for the Tingle Creek given the likely field.
Little chance of winning the QM but fancy prices for a place have every hope.

[boopa]

They all have little chance of winning if Altior turns up. Playing for places.

[jack1092]

His Arkle run was down to the fact him and PM murdered eachother out in front and set it up for Footpad.

I see no reason why he would've beat Footpad in the Arkle, but if PM and him hadn't raced as they did, i suspect Footpad would've been less impressive and SC would've run much better.

If's + buts.....He is probably one dimensional, and when he gets races hes suited to tactically- he will be very good and clock good figures for the times boys.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

His Arkle run was down to the fact him and PM murdered eachother out in front and set it up for Footpad.

I see no reason why he would've beat Footpad in the Arkle, but if PM and him hadn't raced as they did, i suspect Footpad would've been less impressive and SC would've run much better.

If's + buts.....He is probably one dimensional, and when he gets races hes suited to tactically- he will be very good and clock good figures for the times boys.

I know we are digressing a bit from this race, but part of the thinking for the Tingle Creek is that Sandown will suit SC much better than Altior, and that race is his chance

[Istabraq]

I know we are digressing a bit from this race, but part of the thinking for the Tingle Creek is that Sandown will suit SC much better than Altior, and that race is his chance

RC - what makes you think that Sandown will suit Saint Calvados more than Altior ?
Altior has pretty much lobbed along and then sprinted up the hill after the last, that's not to say that Saint Calvados won't act at the track but he is some way short of Altiors ability and if you don't think he can beat Altior then would you not be better off waiting for the day and betting without the fav or play the 2 and 3 place markets ?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

RC - what makes you think that Sandown will suit Saint Calvados more than Altior ?
Altior has pretty much lobbed along and then sprinted up the hill after the last, that's not to say that Saint Calvados won't act at the track but he is some way short of Altiors ability and if you don't think he can beat Altior then would you not be better off waiting for the day and betting without the fav or play the 2 and 3 place markets ?

Hey Ista, don't get me wrong I don't think this is the greatest antepost bet I've ever placed and a couple of points each way is more of an interest than anything. I've enjoyed reading @PolzeathRating last 18 months and as this is one he has been particularly keen on from a long way out happy to follow him in. In terms of the value I think it comes from having Altior in the race. If it cuts up I imagine he'll be around a 7/2 shot on the day (so 5s not massive value) and possible around Evens or less without Altior. 5/1 each way is a bet to nothing so the theory goes. Looking at Polzeath's comments on the track he thinks he might be able to get an easy lead and big enough lead that Altior might not be able to reel him in.

[Istabraq]

Fair points RC, to me tying money up and having the risk of ante post terms wouldn’t be enough to entice me to play now when, on the day, those issues disappear and similar value exists but of course we all bet in different ways.
Good luck !

[Kevloaf]

That's the 2 runs yes he wasn't 2nd behind de bon Coeur he literally ran the same race as the arkle and badly dissapointed when he was upped to that grade.

He's done exactly the same over fences beat a few limited horses then gone and done that.

And he's just gone and beat a limited bunch in ireland (if you agree footpad wasn't right)

He's just about to go up in grade again. Which is where well see if he does the same And get beat by something else as well as Altior.

I don't want to get into a long debate about this, neither of us really think Altior will be beaten, but it is price related and I'm on Saint Calvados at 50/1 (as highlighted here before he ran). IF your point is that Sceau Royal has a better chance in the QMCC than Saint Calvados, I'm not saying that is incorrect - I am saying, I'd much rather have 50/1 Saint Calvados than 25/1 Sceau Royal right now.

That doesn't mean I don't think Sceau Royal is a good bet, or that he wouldn't shorten... what I did want to pick up on was that you seem to be totally disregarding Saint Calvados for reasons that aren't very strong in my opinion.

The first is stepping up into 'top company' and flopping. One of those races was a HURDLE, and therefore I don't see how it is a stick you can beat him with when talking about a horse that is quite clearly superior as a chaser? (you may argue that but I think it's clear cut). The other race Petit Mouchoir clearly spoiled him, and therefore you have to put a line through the race. You are happy enough to forgive Footpad, because you assume he wasn't giving his true running... why does it have to be one or the other? I think Footpad didn't give his true running first time out this season, and Saint Calvados didn't give his true running in the Arkle.


IF the point you are making, is that when he goes up in class again, and one horse heads him, he'll crumble - then you may well be proved right in time. If he compeltely folds when Altior runs past him in the Tingle Creek, then the 50/1 bet I have in the CC will feel effectivly feel like a win only bet. There is also the very real possibility that he is "too one dimensional" and can be spoiled... which would be another negative - however, 50/1 I don't need too many positives.

You did say "on decent ground" you wouldn't be bothered about x,y and z - again a fair enough point... but (and this is the easiest part I know) at 25/1 Sceau Royal you can pick holes is. 1. He has to overcome his injury and prove he's the same horse. 2. No real form other than winning the Sandown race that fell apart a bit. 3. Calvados beat NHH 39L versus 11L for Sceau and NNH beat SR earlier in the season too.

The whole point was that you said on "all known form he'd have finished 2nd in the Arkle".
We don't know that and I don't see where you're getting that from - if it is on a line through Brain Power, then you are saying Brain Power beat Saint Calvados on merit in the Arkle... so we come back to that race where you haven't acknowledged SC didn't give his true running.


Probably rambled on too much there... as it's only a minor quible about a hypothetical that we'll never know haha

[Scooby91]

IF the point you are making, is that when he goes up in class again, and one horse heads him, he'll crumble - then you may well be proved right in time. If he compeltely folds when Altior runs past him in the Tingle Creek, then the 50/1 bet I have in the CC will feel effectivly feel like a win only bet. There is also the very real possibility that he is "too one dimensional" and can be spoiled... which would be another negative - however, 50/1 I don't need too many positives.



*********

That's the one.
That's what I think personally has happened twice. And will continue to happen at the very top grade. He either dominates and wins in a small field against lesser horses or goes to pot, tbf you could argue the same for getabird over hurdles . But he dosent have Altior etc... to face and might get a soft lead. But he's a win only bet.