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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019

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  • #16
    I would say one of the two will change trips this year in an attempt to avoid eachother..

    Obviously no idea which!

    Comment


    • #17
      I can't see Altior changing trips, and tbh IF Footpad isn't as good as Douvan (Willie will know) then he may step up, but I can't see Douvan not running in this either, as I don't see him as anything other than a 2 miler.

      Ultimately, Douvan has been incredibly unlucky in this race so far, I think from this years running we can see he wasn't 100% the previous year, whether you believed the original diagnosis or not. He was a different animal this time around when unfortunately falling.

      Douvan is better than Min (despite my best efforts not to believe this ) and for that reason I think Min will also step up in trip.

      Douvan doesn't seem to be spoken of as much now Footpad is on the scene, yet Douvan could be better than Footpad at home, I don't get the price discrepancy between the 2 at this moment in time, aside from the potential Footpad has, he is still plenty short enough right now IMO.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
        I can't see Altior changing trips, and tbh IF Footpad isn't as good as Douvan (Willie will know) then he may step up, but I can't see Douvan not running in this either, as I don't see him as anything other than a 2 miler.

        Ultimately, Douvan has been incredibly unlucky in this race so far, I think from this years running we can see he wasn't 100% the previous year, whether you believed the original diagnosis or not. He was a different animal this time around when unfortunately falling.

        Douvan is better than Min (despite my best efforts not to believe this ) and for that reason I think Min will also step up in trip.

        Douvan doesn't seem to be spoken of as much now Footpad is on the scene, yet Douvan could be better than Footpad at home, I don't get the price discrepancy between the 2 at this moment in time, aside from the potential Footpad has, he is still plenty short enough right now IMO.

        Was thinking about this over the weekend, and agree with everything you've said.

        Thanks for saving me ten minutes tapping away, and putting them across better than I likely would have

        Comment


        • #19
          The difference with Footpad and Douvan is that the owner picks the face for the former, and that isn't the case in the latter.

          If Munir/Suede want Footpad in the Champion Chase, he'll be in the Champion Chase. I feel like their switch of him to be aimed at the Aintree Festival despite knowing full well Willie wanted Footpad to run in Ireland to help win him the Trainers Title was a very large statement and unfortunately he didn't make either.

          The fact he didn't make it just goes to show you should strike while the iron is hot, and in my opinion if Footpad is fit that week in March, he'll be taking on Altior rather than avoiding him. (Also, Altior won't be avoiding anything, he's the Champion Chaser).

          That way Ricci can still have a runner, and Ruby will be on the one with the best chance. That wouldn't be Min.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            The difference with Footpad and Douvan is that the owner picks the face for the former, and that isn't the case in the latter.

            If Munir/Suede want Footpad in the Champion Chase, he'll be in the Champion Chase. I feel like their switch of him to be aimed at the Aintree Festival despite knowing full well Willie wanted Footpad to run in Ireland to help win him the Trainers Title was a very large statement and unfortunately he didn't make either.

            The fact he didn't make it just goes to show you should strike while the iron is hot, and in my opinion if Footpad is fit that week in March, he'll be taking on Altior rather than avoiding him. (Also, Altior won't be avoiding anything, he's the Champion Chaser).

            That way Ricci can still have a runner, and Ruby will be on the one with the best chance. That wouldn't be Min.
            I agree, I think both Footpad & Douvan end up in this race, which is why the price discrepancy has me perplexed.

            Footpad has done nothing Douvan hasn't already done.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              I agree, I think both Footpad & Douvan end up in this race, which is why the price discrepancy has me perplexed.

              Footpad has done nothing Douvan hasn't already done.
              I think the price is mainly down to it being more likely Footpad gets placed here by the owners and Ruby will not let anyone else ride Douvan if he's in with a chance of winning that week.

              If Ruby can't move Footpad, then he has to choose between Douvan and Footpad.... OR, he can convince Ricci to have Min in the Ryanair and step Douvan up in trip and pick off the Ryanair (all in theory of course).

              In terms of betting at this stage, there are way too many possibilities... Min might beat Footpad in Ireland, Yorkhill might have realised he's a horse and not a cabbage? Douvan might get injured... I'm trying hard NOT to get too caught up in where the Mullins horses go (*scans through my posts - whoops!*)

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                I think the price is mainly down to it being more likely Footpad gets placed here by the owners and Ruby will not let anyone else ride Douvan if he's in with a chance of winning that week.

                If Ruby can't move Footpad, then he has to choose between Douvan and Footpad.... OR, he can convince Ricci to have Min in the Ryanair and step Douvan up in trip and pick off the Ryanair (all in theory of course).

                In terms of betting at this stage, there are way too many possibilities... Min might beat Footpad in Ireland, Yorkhill might have realised he's a horse and not a cabbage? Douvan might get injured... I'm trying hard NOT to get too caught up in where the Mullins horses go (*scans through my posts - whoops!*)
                8/1 Douvan 'Any Race' is a tempter then, as all bar injury he goes off shorter than that regardless of the race I think.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                  8/1 Douvan 'Any Race' is a tempter then, as all bar injury he goes off shorter than that regardless of the race I think.
                  Yeah that is how I played him last year. I actually expecting him to go for the Ryanair and that late 'teaser' from Ricci was gutting in the end!

                  This far out I want to see him, Footpad and Altior all in the same race... I'm sure they'll all be aimed at it until decisions need to be made!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Yeah that is how I played him last year. I actually expecting him to go for the Ryanair and that late 'teaser' from Ricci was gutting in the end!

                    This far out I want to see him, Footpad and Altior all in the same race... I'm sure they'll all be aimed at it until decisions need to be made!
                    Altior 100% goes to the CC. He’s the greatest 2m (Sprinter Sacre asides) since Master Minded.

                    Douvan probably ought to be aimed at the CC. It’s stunning to think he hasn’t even placed in the race yet. Arguably the 2nd best 2m behind Altior in training.

                    Footpad has he potential to be very good. But it’s nothing more than potential. And he could be going Ryanair.




                    As a betting proposition, Footpad is in absolutely no way attractive to me.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Willie Mullins - Footpad -
                      "He has come back in from grass looking very well. In terms of his trip, much will depend on what his owners want to do. It is easier to keep chasers sounder over shorter trips than longer trips, but he is bred to stay, has form over further and is a very efficient jumper of a fence, so he has the option of running over longer trips too. I’ll have to have a good discussion with his owners before we make any firm decisions on him."
                      Mullins had this to say after the Arkle:

                      "We know he stays. It's a surprise to us that he's able to win an Arkle. We had him down as our two-and-a-half-mile horse for this year, JLT or possibly RSA, but then when he came out and did what he did in his first two races we said we were in the wrong division and should go back for the Arkle and he's done that now.

                      "I doubt I've had one improve so much from hurdles to fences. His jumping has just brought him up another gear."

                      He added: "This fellow could be a Gold Cup horse. Lots of Gold Cup horses have won the Arkle and this fellow is much more laid back than some.

                      "I think we will have a good chat with connections and see if they would like to go in that direction.

                      "He has plenty of stamina."
                      This will be REALLY interesting won't it? I am starting to believe he SHould be in the Gold Cup! I feel like Willie is convinced Footpad is a Gold Cup horse. With Altior around, and Douvan, Min and Great Field all available to fire at the Champion Chase... he could "avoid" one big clash?

                      I'd fear Altior more than Might Bite or Presenting Percy if I was Footpad.

                      He is an uninviting 16/1 for the Gold Cup, which is disappointing but byu the same token, if you knew he was going for Gold you'd definitely want a piece. One for the "free bet brigade" in my opinion and I imagine I'll start backing accordingly if I pick any free bets up on sly.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        I really hope Great Field makes it over this year, would add another dimension to the race


                        Douvan is shorter for the Ryanair but I suppose that’s as much because of Altior as anything

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
                          I really hope Great Field makes it over this year, would add another dimension to the race


                          Douvan is shorter for the Ryanair but I suppose that’s as much because of Altior as anything
                          Top price with PP for Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup.... so they don't seem to mind anyone having a bet, and implies it really isn't clear where he is going?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I’d agree, I think Douvan and Footpad are the stables top chasers and the two they will split. Mullins seemed to confirm that Min was CC bound, and Great Field you would think the same, but Min has been proven to be a step behind Altior twice and GF is a great unknown as for all his high rating he’s beaten not much.

                            I don’t see Douvan going to the GC at all so an Altior CC/Douvan R/Footpad GC trixie could be a play, however I’d like to think they take Altior on with one of them, preferably a fully fit Douvan as that’s a race I’ve wanted for years

                            *a lot of rambling to myself there

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
                              I’d agree, I think Douvan and Footpad are the stables top chasers and the two they will split. Mullins seemed to confirm that Min was CC bound, and Great Field you would think the same, but Min has been proven to be a step behind Altior twice and GF is a great unknown as for all his high rating he’s beaten not much.

                              I don’t see Douvan going to the GC at all so an Altior CC/Douvan R/Footpad GC trixie could be a play, however I’d like to think they take Altior on with one of them, preferably a fully fit Douvan as that’s a race I’ve wanted for years

                              *a lot of rambling to myself there
                              Great that Cheltenham is 5 months away, and we're up at gone midnight wondering where Mullins will send his chasers

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Cadmium cut yesterday to 25s from 40s. My mate has a part share in this (SHR club) and would just be happy to bowl along and get home safe as he doesn’t think he will trouble the major players. I’ll keep you posted on any change but This is his target.

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