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RSA Chase 2019

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  • #16
    Originally posted by PitLad View Post

    PS - I think Samcro will go Arkle, he looks a speedy traveller to me and the Arkle will suit his style.

    Roll on March
    Interesting view PitLad, given Giggs obsession with staying chase prizes and in particular the Gold Cup the Arkle wouldn't be the natural stepping stone to the blue ribband.
    I think the JLT would be almost be a penalty kick for Samcro as I it wouldn't surprise me if his main challengers were RSA bound, but plenty to happen over coming months before we'll know for sure....

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
      I think I remember discussing this with you immediately after Cheltenham this year on here but I’m in the JLT camp.

      I absolutely see your point about the RSA being the obvious choice for a Gold Cup hope the following year. But the RSA is the novice race for the stamina ridden horses. For the horses that would rattle Home over the JLT distance after being abit outpaced down the hill. Samcro isn’t like these horses. He’s absolutely brimming with cruising speed. He could win an Arkle. He could win an RSA. And I think Gigginstown will know that (he’s favourite for both races obviously too).

      So with that cruising speed element, I think they won’t test his stamina this season. I expect them to test his jumping (so that’s the unlikely scenario of the Champion hurdle ruled out) but leave his stamina test for 2020. Leaving him to get a test of the Cheltenham fences, use his cruising speed to full effect whilst still keeping him at a relatively decent trip for a future golf cup horse - all without the need of the RSA slog.

      Samcro - the JLT winner of 2019.
      I don't think he'd find the RSA a slog though with his cruising speed. I don't think the RSA is a slog particularly anyway... Presenting Percy certainly didn't look like he was slogging it out.

      I do agree with you that he'd won the JLT and like Ista says, it could be a penalty kick ... I'd be a shade disappointed if he'd gone the entire season without seeing what he's like over 3m. They already know he's good enough to win G1s over 2m and 2m4f don't they ... id love him in the Flogas!

      Long way to go though

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      • #18
        All of the protagonists mentioned have big futures over fences. I’d like to get the main 2 covered though I’m hoping Samcro goes each way so I’d rather tie him up in “win any race” multiples.

        Comment


        • #19
          Decided to have my first decent bet in this race on On the blind side 22/1 price boost with Ladbrokes. As mentioned elsewhere he is one of only 2 Cheltenham ante-post tips put up by Paul Ferguson in his book Jumpers to Follow. He clearly rates the horse very highly, was very impressed with his first half of the sason, the way he got up the Cheltenham hill, and thinks his return run at Aintree can be ignored, he's even put him on the front cover. What also highlighted the potential value to me were the comments made by Jeremiah McGrath who rides for Henderson: 'we like him an awful lot at home and I would hope he will end up in the RSA chase'.

          Contrast that with these comments he had on Santini: '... He was still a big baby last year and he might be a horse we don't see the best of for another 2 or 3 years'. He obviously says encouraging things about Santini (clearly the horse surprised them on the track) but I couldn't help get the impression that OBTS is the one they think has the most potential this season, and with the price (boost) difference of 13s versus 22s I'm happy to take the plunge on OTBS at this early stage.

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          • #20
            RC - unless they’ve resolved OTBS shin issues I’m not expecting him to head to the festival.
            Like you and many more in here I was very taken by his run at Cheltenham but the downhill run was uncomfortable/painful for the horse and in an ultra competitive festival heat he’s unlikely to get away with it compared to a 5/6 runner G2 race...

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
              RC - unless they’ve resolved OTBS shin issues I’m not expecting him to head to the festival.
              Like you and many more in here I was very taken by his run at Cheltenham but the downhill run was uncomfortable/painful for the horse and in an ultra competitive festival heat he’s unlikely to get away with it compared to a 5/6 runner G2 race...
              Fair point Ista and something to consider. Ferguson does mention that in his write up but the fact he still got up the hill the way he did then won impressively next time out a month later implied he thinks this may not be such a big issue. Also if they were that concerned about his previous Cheltengam experience I would have expected McGrath to mention it (if he is as close to the stable as he implies). Anyway good point to raise and bring into the calculation.

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              • #22
                Always thought OTBS more of a JLT type?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Innoko View Post
                  Always thought OTBS more of a JLT type?
                  So did I at this stage. I thought OTBS was a 3 miler last year then Henderson (quite publically) disagreed with Nico and 'proved his point' with the impressive win over the intermediate trip the next time out.

                  Chasing is a different beast though with the pace of the races being different, so I suppose I may just be being lazy thinking the distance transforms quite as simply.

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                  • #24
                    Just noticed a few firms cut Santini last night for the RSA. 12-1 still avaliable at bet365 and betfred.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by SAMCRO View Post
                      Just noticed a few firms cut Santini last night for the RSA. 12-1 still avaliable at bet365 and betfred.
                      Bet365 must be watching....9's

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Innoko View Post
                        Bet365 must be watching....9's
                        & now PP. 10s into 7s

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                        • #27
                          Still 10s any race, too.

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                          • #28
                            Seems strange to cut him before he does anything doesn't it. It isn't like anyone had any doubts at all around his target?

                            I was in the camp that thought Samcro would be going Chasing and for the RSA.... which is the only link I can think of as to why to cut him, but that is extremely tenuious anyway...

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Horses arriving back from Summer breaks, some will have Summered better than others so could be plenty of talk from yards and don't forget these yards are all sponsored by bookmakers these days.
                              Probably one or two stable tours kicking around ?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                                Horses arriving back from Summer breaks, some will have Summered better than others so could be plenty of talk from yards and don't forget these yards are all sponsored by bookmakers these days.
                                Probably one or two stable tours kicking around ?
                                That probably does explain it... but if I read a stable tour in the next few days and see Henderson say "Santini could be an RSA type"... I'll know I was way ahead of the game!

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