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Thread: RSA Chase 2019

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Now this RSA thread is up and running....personally, I'm in the minority that think Samcro will end up in this race.

    To my mind, Gigginstown are working backwards from the Gold Cup 2020. (I think thats fair to say and don't think anyone disagrees?) If he stayed over hurdles then obviously I'm a million miles off, but I can't see it!

    After Cheltenhan I thought the RSA was by far and away the most likely target, and do have to admit that ending up in the Arkle or the JLT is not as unlikely as I thought it was.

    However, he's shortest for the JLT and that just doesn't sit right with me. Part of the reason he's shortest for the JLPT, is because the JLT is always likely to be the weakest of the novice chases at Cheltenham. It doesn't hold the prestige of an Arkle or RSA. That might sound stupid but I don't think it can be discounted - you only need to look at Colin Tizzard's campaigning of Finian's Oscar to see where the novice chases stack up in terms of importance to people in the game. To use a possbily more relevant example, Don Poli was put in the RSA over the NH Chase because Gigginstown don't care about the NH Chase. Now that race is 4th in the pecking order of prestige, with the RSA and Arkle ahead, and then the JLT.

    Now Samcro is shortest for the JLT of all 4 of the novice events (and we'll class it as 3 events from now on as there is zero percent change he would run in the NH Chase) and that doesn't quite sit right with me. The best horse to ever win the JLT was without a doubt Vautour. He went on to win a Ryanair over course and distance. He got outstayed in a King George but was obviously a magnificent horse. Yorkhill and Black Hercules turned to mush after the race (perhaps the trends fans will start saying that the JLT bottoms horses with enough time to pass). Sir Des Champs won the race when Gigginstown were still with Mullins and he was a very good horse too. That year though, they had First Liutenant who came 2nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA (Bob's worth funnily enough the horse to beat Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup the year after). Now time may have shown Sir Des Champs to be a better horse than First Liuetenant - however going IN to Cheltenham 2012 First Liutenant was rated 6lbs superior to Sir Des Champs backing up my theory that their BEST HORSE runs in the RSA. Another example would be the public switching of Don Poli to the RSA when the trainer wanted to run him in the 4 miler. WInning over the Ballymore trip seems to be the 'lazy' guide to where he'll run in my opinion. For some horses and operations I'd go along with it, but 4/1 for Gigginstown, absolutely not for me!
    I also have to acknowledge they won the race with Shattered Love this year, however, she's a mare... and O'Leary is quite outspoken with his views on mares and I don't think her winning the race makes a difference to how they'll campaign their most exciting horse in years.

    I can't rule out the Arkle. I want to, I just can't. They've had a Gold Cup winner (War of Attrition) run in the Arkle, although he did come 7th which isn't as strong a trend as I've seen made out in the racing media as a solid reason as to why they'd go that route with Samcro. However, they've said "he's got the pace for 2m" so many times that you can't ignore it - because of the prestige of the race it is definitely a consideration. We do know Mengli Khan is going chasing and will be going over 2 miles, and although I know they weren't moving Samcro to avoid Menglhi Khan, MK still placed in the Supreme on ground that didn't suit and was a G1 novice hurdle winner. As opposed to the other potential Gigginstown chasers, for all that I like Delta Work and Blow By Blow, they were HANDICAP winners, not novice hurdle festival winners, and we'd be foolish to over-rate them. If we're UPGRADING the potential RSA Gigginstown horses because they're going chasing, surely we allow the same for Samcro, and nobody at all would think BBB or DW was a better hurdler than Samcro, and therefore, they aren't better horses...so whether they're suited to the RSA or not, Samcro is different class.

    The way Samcro is able to look like he's not in top gear yet still be travelling at such pace is special and until I know he's not going for this race, I don't want to be getting TOO excited about anything else. I think Samcro will take to fences incredibly with his P2P background and he wasn't exactly 'slick' over his hurdles. He doesn't hurdle like a Champion Hurdler at this stage so there is genuine reason to believe he'd be BETTER over fences. If he is better over fences than he is over hurdles, then he'd win at any trip and the 3 mile 'test' won't look like a test for him. The way he cruises, I can't see a horse taking him out of his comfort zone, even though I am very excited about Santini and Topofthegame, they'd need to improve some way to leap ahead of SAmcro in terms of ability.

    All of this is before we see Samcro jump a fence, and for that reason you'd be brave and foolish to go to wild on him in any of these races.... but a double figure price about the race I feel is most likely for connections is tempting all the same!
    I think I remember discussing this with you immediately after Cheltenham this year on here but I’m in the JLT camp.

    I absolutely see your point about the RSA being the obvious choice for a Gold Cup hope the following year. But the RSA is the novice race for the stamina ridden horses. For the horses that would rattle Home over the JLT distance after being abit outpaced down the hill. Samcro isn’t like these horses. He’s absolutely brimming with cruising speed. He could win an Arkle. He could win an RSA. And I think Gigginstown will know that (he’s favourite for both races obviously too).

    So with that cruising speed element, I think they won’t test his stamina this season. I expect them to test his jumping (so that’s the unlikely scenario of the Champion hurdle ruled out) but leave his stamina test for 2020. Leaving him to get a test of the Cheltenham fences, use his cruising speed to full effect whilst still keeping him at a relatively decent trip for a future golf cup horse - all without the need of the RSA slog.

    Samcro - the JLT winner of 2019.

  2. #12
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    I'm not a fan of translating old PtP form to chasing particularly when they've had a year to get 'bad' hurdling habits.

    Samcro has a PtP RPR of 92 which is good but not outstanding (Finian's Oscar 93, Bacardys 94) so while it's legitimate to say that he has the scope for chasing, it's difficult to be confident that he'll be better over fences than hurdles. However, unless he has schooling issues I am fairly confident that he'll be chasing next season.
    The Cheltenham target is, for me, still wide open. The JLT is such a young race that it's place in the education of novice chasers is still being established. What I am sure of though is that the shorter the race, the more important the jumping becomes because even though there are fewer fences to be jumped they are jumped quicker and there is less time to recover from a mistake.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I think they think he's a lot better than hte Ultima at this stage..... obviously if the prices are the same its a no brainer but if he's not one of the favs for the RSA he'll have had a disappointing season.

    Santini isn't a wild price at all, and he's yet to jumpa fence and so on.... but he's in my book at 16s and 12s so far and then in 4 multiples. However a few of those were the sky specials, so I will actually add him in to the same trixie you have mentioned (I did the same bet with Topofthegame but he's 25/1 at this stage so can't knock that)
    I donít disagree Kev but Un Temps Por Tout won off 155 and thatís about where Santini is now.
    I donít think thereís a great deal of difference between the Ďcap and the Gold Cup, this would be the best quality 3m chase in the calendar and can be a stepping stone to the Gold Cup, Holywell went this route and only a deluge prevented him from going close.
    But yes, RSA/Gold Cup would be the obvious 2 year plan...

  4. #14
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    I've got Samcro at 8/1 (4pts) & Santini 15/1 (2pts). Put Samcro on the day after the festival, I have a similar thought trail to what Kev has said, personally don't see the JLT so that leaves Arkle & RSA. Now I'm a huge fan of Mengli Khan and think his run on very unsuitable ground in last years Supreme was impressive and think that Gigginstown will be happy to target the Arkle with him thus leaving Samcro to take on the RSA, well that's my hope.

    Must admit I think this could be shaping up to be a fantastic race, I can certainly see very strong cases for a lot of the top half of the market.

  5. #15
    I'm all over SANTNI here.
    After watching him last season I had my eye on the RSA for 2019, he just seems the perfect type to me and Hendo can train a Cheltz winner.
    I'm on single for a nice pay out already and got him in loads of doubles with other fancies horses.
    Got coverage savers on Next Destination and Delta Work for about £100 or so each - but it's SANTINI all the way for me.

    PS - I think Samcro will go Arkle, he looks a speedy traveller to me and the Arkle will suit his style.

    Roll on March

  6. #16
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PitLad View Post

    PS - I think Samcro will go Arkle, he looks a speedy traveller to me and the Arkle will suit his style.

    Roll on March
    Interesting view PitLad, given Giggs obsession with staying chase prizes and in particular the Gold Cup the Arkle wouldn't be the natural stepping stone to the blue ribband.
    I think the JLT would be almost be a penalty kick for Samcro as I it wouldn't surprise me if his main challengers were RSA bound, but plenty to happen over coming months before we'll know for sure....

  7. #17
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
    I think I remember discussing this with you immediately after Cheltenham this year on here but I’m in the JLT camp.

    I absolutely see your point about the RSA being the obvious choice for a Gold Cup hope the following year. But the RSA is the novice race for the stamina ridden horses. For the horses that would rattle Home over the JLT distance after being abit outpaced down the hill. Samcro isn’t like these horses. He’s absolutely brimming with cruising speed. He could win an Arkle. He could win an RSA. And I think Gigginstown will know that (he’s favourite for both races obviously too).

    So with that cruising speed element, I think they won’t test his stamina this season. I expect them to test his jumping (so that’s the unlikely scenario of the Champion hurdle ruled out) but leave his stamina test for 2020. Leaving him to get a test of the Cheltenham fences, use his cruising speed to full effect whilst still keeping him at a relatively decent trip for a future golf cup horse - all without the need of the RSA slog.

    Samcro - the JLT winner of 2019.
    I don't think he'd find the RSA a slog though with his cruising speed. I don't think the RSA is a slog particularly anyway... Presenting Percy certainly didn't look like he was slogging it out.

    I do agree with you that he'd won the JLT and like Ista says, it could be a penalty kick ... I'd be a shade disappointed if he'd gone the entire season without seeing what he's like over 3m. They already know he's good enough to win G1s over 2m and 2m4f don't they ... id love him in the Flogas!

    Long way to go though

  8. #18
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    All of the protagonists mentioned have big futures over fences. Iíd like to get the main 2 covered though Iím hoping Samcro goes each way so Iíd rather tie him up in ďwin any raceĒ multiples.

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