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Thread: RSA Chase 2019

  1. #1
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    RSA Chase 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanRock View Post
    Few snippets from previous threads of my angle on Topofthegame, cpfcpatriot!

    "Topofthegame looks a nice prospect for the RSA. He’s a huge scopey type that looks made for jumping a fence. I think it was a shrewd move from Nicholls keeping his novice status for next season after he fell on his chasing debut. A backward type he should fill out into his massive frame in time and will be a lot stronger come next year. I wasn’t sure if Cheltenham would suit him but he ran a blinder in the Coral Cup and 16/1 isn’t too bad a price."

    "Iv probably mentioned before but I think Topofthegame @ 25’s with Ladbrokes for the RSA is great value, he’s built for chasing so the fact he finished 2nd in the Coral Cup speaks volumes including a fondness for the track, very similar profile to Presenting Percy before his win this year! Nicholls keeping his novice status intact was a shrewd move as imo being a 7yr old is a big plus given how much endurance is required! I’ve included him in a large e/w single & quite a few multiples already!"

    Watch his chase debut at Newbury from last year he reminds me a little of Might Bight with his athleticism & natural scope for fences (before his novice like clumsy fall obviously). Whatever he did over hurdles was "only a bonus before he goes chasing" in Harry Derhams words.

    Noel Fehily (Paul Ferguson's JTF 17/18)
    "A big lean horse, he will nothing but improve as he gets a bit stronger. I was very pleasantly surprised with his run at Cheltenham. He should be a much better chaser and is a horse to look at, that it is hard to believe he achieved what he did of hurdles. He is massive and will improve as he strengthens up"

    Nick Scholfield (Paul Ferguson's JTF 17/18)
    "He's a lovely horse, he's taken a bit of time, a big raw horse, a really old fashioned Denman style of horse. He ran well over hurdles, but he's a proper staying chaser in the making and, while he will probably do well this season, looking forward ahead he will probably be even better."
    I think this deserves to start this thread. I believe Topofthegame is an excellent selection.

    The market at on 11/08/18 looks liks this:

    12/1 Next Destination
    12/1 Samcro
    12/1 Santini
    16/1 Black Op
    16/1 Champagne Classic (one bookmaker quoting)
    16/1 Faugheen
    16/1 Coquin Mans
    20/1 On The Blink Side
    20/1 Wholestone
    20/1 Cracking Smart (one bookmaker quoting)
    25/1 Blow By Blow
    25/1 Delta Works
    25/1 Topofthegame (14s with sky)
    25/1 Ok Corral
    25/1 Supasundae
    33/1 Ballyward
    33/1 Kilbricken Storm
    40/1 White Moon
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 08-11-2018 at 09:17 AM.

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    I was lucky enough to attend our Million in mind parade today and the one thing ill take away from today is that Nicky really seems to like Santini and ill be taking 12/1 about him for this race. He didn't go overboard in his praise for him but you could tell he really like this lad and I wouldn't be surprised if he went to the top.

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    Quote Originally Posted by billymag View Post
    I was lucky enough to attend our Million in mind parade today and the one thing ill take away from today is that Nicky really seems to like Santini and ill be taking 12/1 about him for this race. He didn't go overboard in his praise for him but you could tell he really like this lad and I wouldn't be surprised if he went to the top.
    He's 12s for a/r with Hills & Lads, Billy.

    Backed him before I went on holiday, so didn't need much encouragement to top up after seeing you say that.

    Cheers

  4. #4
    I’ve taken the 12/1 for Next Destination. Think both he and Cracking Smart are high class stayers and the step up in trip will suit.

    Just watch ND in last years Ballymore. He flies home.

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    I really like Santini too for this , Got him in more multiples than any other horse . Apart from P.percy maybe.,
    But also think Next destination worth serious consideration .
    Still think Black op will go J.L.T chase , Delta work & Topofthegame
    in the mix too .

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    Cheers for heads up on the any race TimR and used my bet boost but only for a fraction of what i wanted. Ill see if they will take it over the till in shop though

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    I thought Cracking Smart would get the better of Next Destination over 3m so think there is value there at 20/1

    Also Kilbricker Storm clearly loves Cheltenham, only lost by a neck-1/2 a length at punchestown to ND and is 33/1!

  8. #8
    Good info billmag.
    Included Santini in RSA in a trixie/treble with Presenting Percy and Penhill.
    RSA would seem the obvious race unless they get a mark they think they could work with for the day one 3m handicap chase...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    Good info billmag.
    Included Santini in RSA in a trixie/treble with Presenting Percy and Penhill.
    RSA would seem the obvious race unless they get a mark they think they could work with for the day one 3m handicap chase...
    I think they think he's a lot better than hte Ultima at this stage..... obviously if the prices are the same its a no brainer but if he's not one of the favs for the RSA he'll have had a disappointing season.

    Santini isn't a wild price at all, and he's yet to jumpa fence and so on.... but he's in my book at 16s and 12s so far and then in 4 multiples. However a few of those were the sky specials, so I will actually add him in to the same trixie you have mentioned (I did the same bet with Topofthegame but he's 25/1 at this stage so can't knock that)

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    Now this RSA thread is up and running....personally, I'm in the minority that think Samcro will end up in this race.

    To my mind, Gigginstown are working backwards from the Gold Cup 2020. (I think thats fair to say and don't think anyone disagrees?) If he stayed over hurdles then obviously I'm a million miles off, but I can't see it!

    After Cheltenhan I thought the RSA was by far and away the most likely target, and do have to admit that ending up in the Arkle or the JLT is not as unlikely as I thought it was.

    However, he's shortest for the JLT and that just doesn't sit right with me. Part of the reason he's shortest for the JLPT, is because the JLT is always likely to be the weakest of the novice chases at Cheltenham. It doesn't hold the prestige of an Arkle or RSA. That might sound stupid but I don't think it can be discounted - you only need to look at Colin Tizzard's campaigning of Finian's Oscar to see where the novice chases stack up in terms of importance to people in the game. To use a possbily more relevant example, Don Poli was put in the RSA over the NH Chase because Gigginstown don't care about the NH Chase. Now that race is 4th in the pecking order of prestige, with the RSA and Arkle ahead, and then the JLT.

    Now Samcro is shortest for the JLT of all 4 of the novice events (and we'll class it as 3 events from now on as there is zero percent change he would run in the NH Chase) and that doesn't quite sit right with me. The best horse to ever win the JLT was without a doubt Vautour. He went on to win a Ryanair over course and distance. He got outstayed in a King George but was obviously a magnificent horse. Yorkhill and Black Hercules turned to mush after the race (perhaps the trends fans will start saying that the JLT bottoms horses with enough time to pass). Sir Des Champs won the race when Gigginstown were still with Mullins and he was a very good horse too. That year though, they had First Liutenant who came 2nd to Bobs Worth in the RSA (Bob's worth funnily enough the horse to beat Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup the year after). Now time may have shown Sir Des Champs to be a better horse than First Liuetenant - however going IN to Cheltenham 2012 First Liutenant was rated 6lbs superior to Sir Des Champs backing up my theory that their BEST HORSE runs in the RSA. Another example would be the public switching of Don Poli to the RSA when the trainer wanted to run him in the 4 miler. WInning over the Ballymore trip seems to be the 'lazy' guide to where he'll run in my opinion. For some horses and operations I'd go along with it, but 4/1 for Gigginstown, absolutely not for me!
    I also have to acknowledge they won the race with Shattered Love this year, however, she's a mare... and O'Leary is quite outspoken with his views on mares and I don't think her winning the race makes a difference to how they'll campaign their most exciting horse in years.

    I can't rule out the Arkle. I want to, I just can't. They've had a Gold Cup winner (War of Attrition) run in the Arkle, although he did come 7th which isn't as strong a trend as I've seen made out in the racing media as a solid reason as to why they'd go that route with Samcro. However, they've said "he's got the pace for 2m" so many times that you can't ignore it - because of the prestige of the race it is definitely a consideration. We do know Mengli Khan is going chasing and will be going over 2 miles, and although I know they weren't moving Samcro to avoid Menglhi Khan, MK still placed in the Supreme on ground that didn't suit and was a G1 novice hurdle winner. As opposed to the other potential Gigginstown chasers, for all that I like Delta Work and Blow By Blow, they were HANDICAP winners, not novice hurdle festival winners, and we'd be foolish to over-rate them. If we're UPGRADING the potential RSA Gigginstown horses because they're going chasing, surely we allow the same for Samcro, and nobody at all would think BBB or DW was a better hurdler than Samcro, and therefore, they aren't better horses...so whether they're suited to the RSA or not, Samcro is different class.

    The way Samcro is able to look like he's not in top gear yet still be travelling at such pace is special and until I know he's not going for this race, I don't want to be getting TOO excited about anything else. I think Samcro will take to fences incredibly with his P2P background and he wasn't exactly 'slick' over his hurdles. He doesn't hurdle like a Champion Hurdler at this stage so there is genuine reason to believe he'd be BETTER over fences. If he is better over fences than he is over hurdles, then he'd win at any trip and the 3 mile 'test' won't look like a test for him. The way he cruises, I can't see a horse taking him out of his comfort zone, even though I am very excited about Santini and Topofthegame, they'd need to improve some way to leap ahead of SAmcro in terms of ability.

    All of this is before we see Samcro jump a fence, and for that reason you'd be brave and foolish to go to wild on him in any of these races.... but a double figure price about the race I feel is most likely for connections is tempting all the same!

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