Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Oli Bell was at Mullins' yesterday. My guess is that they'll air the footage on Saturday or during York but it may well give a few snippets on likely targets as things stand.

As always, it's an elimination exercise.
Past winners tend not to turn up, never mind follow up. Scratch Native River and Sizing John.
10yos don't win. Scratch Might Bite and Killultagh Vic.

Do you know if it was for ITV or RUK Archie?

[archie]

I heard ITV but not sure. This is what his twitter feed says:
https://twitter.com/olibellracing

[Faugheen_Machine]

I heard ITV but not sure. This is what his twitter feed says:
https://twitter.com/olibellracing

Thanks Archie

[Istabraq]

Istabraq, Coneygree also took his chance and took it brilliantly as a novice.

Of course billymag, short memory !
Though Coneygree was about as close as you can get to a being a 'non' novice but you are correct, he is an exception.
The point I was making is that and staying chaser rated 160 or above will head here and that novices taking their chance are rare, so from an ante post betting opportunity this race is probably the safest to invest in at this early stage....

[Istabraq]

Oli Bell was at Mullins' yesterday. My guess is that they'll air the footage on Saturday or during York but it may well give a few snippets on likely targets as things stand.

As always, it's an elimination exercise.
Past winners tend not to turn up, never mind follow up. Scratch Native River and Sizing John.
10yos don't win. Scratch Might Bite and Killultagh Vic.

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

[archie]

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.

[Istabraq]

I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.

Agree with that....

[Middle_Of_March]

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

I agree about Might Bite.

That run in second on ground like that made me even more impressed with him. Everything suited the winner that day but MB put up one hell of a battle.

I’d have MB as market favourite at this stage if I was the bookie.

[archie]

I’d have MB as market favourite at this stage if I was the bookie.

There is only a small chance that Might Bite will be an improved horse next March so you're banking on him getting ground that is claimed to be more suitable. Apart from that being far from certain, the same argument goes for younger horses like Road To Respect who, as a 7yo, is also likely to have more improvement in him.

It's too early to identify the individual horse but the stats are heavily in favour of the winner next March being one of last season's novices. For what it's worth, I just have this feeling that Presenting Percy is farther along the maturity road than some of the others and wouldn't be keen on his price either at this stage.

[PitLad]

I really like Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup, stays the trip (and more) but has speed for shorter, neat jumper, course/Festival form in the book and jockey suits style, all in all the one to beat in my book.

As for dangers I quite like Balko Des Flos, he was ultra impressive in the RyanAir last March on ground he didn't like, course/Fest form important. Back on decent ground, I think he's one to get amongst it and is solid value at 25/1