Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[jack1092]

I have to admit, i've never quite jumped on the Percy bandwagon, and therefore have missed two festival winners...so i won't start backing him now for the hardest of them all. Scooby has put up a good argument above, and that's just the novices. To me, Road to Respect is the one albeit, i would want decent ground for him to have his best chance- which is no certainty.

Al Boum Photo would need to prove he can jump consistently for me to be interested in him, but he's full of ability.

Shattered Love at 33s is the closest i'd be to having another proper fancy, but even though the quotes suggest GC, i wouldn't be surprised with Giggy having a few for this, they might send her back for the Ryanair. Just a hunch.

[Folski]

No proof he's the one.ill stress that I'm not saying he can't win.

Shattered love has beat him the once they lined up , not taking that literal ofcourse but she's improved considerably too. (No suprise as shes huge) Alboum photo would have been within 2 lengths either way in the rsa iv no doubt of that, in what was the 7th run of his life. He's improved too since then.
Percy had the experiance last year we'll soon find out in the Lexus if the others have caught up. I really think they have . With Alboum photo and shattered love being the main 2 imo.

And I'd have to mention rathvinden and monalee as having there own chances. The former stays all day. The latter has learned to harness his energy but needs to improve a little.

Scoob, I honestly think only Al boum Photo is the only one of those that would get close to PP.

[Scooby91]

Scoob, I honestly think only Al boum Photo is the only one of those that would get close to PP.

I think shattered love too. Both atleast on a par with PP for me.
We'll soon see

If I had to narrow the gold cup and Lexus to 3.

Would be
shattered love
Al boum photo
Road to respect

If you gave me an equal price id add PP and make it a 4

[archie]

I'd just reflect on the fact that Willie was prepared to run Kemboy in the Ladbrokes off 157 plus up to 4lb penalty rather than Al Boum Photo off 159 and Rathvinden off 153. I'd still prefer he went for the Ryanair this season but we'll find out more at Leopardstown so fingers crossed they all get there.

[Folski]

I think shattered love too. Both atleast on a par with PP for me.
We'll soon see

If I had to narrow the gold cup and Lexus to 3.

Would be
shattered love
Al boum photo
Road to respect

If you gave me an equal price id add PP and make it a 4

I thought ABP beat SL fair and square at Fairyhouse and I think there is far more improvement in him. Winning a lexus on his first run seems a huge ask though and his jumping needs to improve. The other 2 you have mentioned have the benefit of having had a run and I can see them in the mix as they should be in the Lexus but I think PP is all about one day and a decent run in the Lexus will be enough for me to see him as the most likely winner come March.

[jack1092]

I'd just reflect on the fact that Willie was prepared to run Kemboy in the Ladbrokes off 157 plus up to 4lb penalty rather than Al Boum Photo off 159 and Rathvinden off 153. I'd still prefer he went for the Ryanair this season but we'll find out more at Leopardstown so fingers crossed they all get there.

Not sure i'd read into that literally, it was probably more Kemboy's target than the others....still a good sign all the same and he's a horse full of potential. Completely agree i think he's much more of a Ryanair horse at this stage of his career.

Both him + Al Boum Photo would need to jump better consistently.

[boopa]

It's a shame so many will be on their first run in the Lexus.

[charlie]

No proof he's the one.ill stress that I'm not saying he can't win.

Shattered love has beat him the once they lined up , not taking that literal ofcourse but she's improved considerably too. (No suprise as shes huge) Alboum photo would have been within 2 lengths either way in the rsa iv no doubt of that, in what was the 7th run of his life. He's improved too since then.
Percy had the experiance last year we'll soon find out in the Lexus if the others have caught up. I really think they have . With Alboum photo and shattered love being the main 2 imo.

And I'd have to mention rathvinden and monalee as having there own chances. The former stays all day. The latter has learned to harness his energy but needs to improve a little.

Whilst there is no 'proof' he is the one, there is plenty of information to support that statement.

For Gordon Elliot to say before cheltenham that PP is the best novice chaser in Ireland by a country mile and he'll win the RSA this year and then the Gold Cup, is one hell of a statement, even more so when you think of the strength and depth in his own yard. Extremely strong words backed up (and some) by a brilliant performance in the RSA. As Davy said in his post race interview (which I encourage anyone to watch) it wasn't just the fact he won, it was how he won. He was impressive and didn't look remotely tired having done it in the way that he did. We know the RSA has been a stepping stone for 3 GC winners in the last 11 years. Had it been better ground I am convinced that would read 4/11 with Might Bite. PP is now 2/2 at Cheltenham. No ground concerns, he has won there on good ground and on soft/heavy. He jumps very well and we know the trip will be no issue. There is a hell of a lot to really like. Yes, looking at some of the novices from last year, they may have improved and caught up, but then you could equally say there is improvement to come from PP as well.

I completely understand him not being 'the one' from a betting perspective because 6/1 would probably be quoted 10 years ago after he had won the Lexus much less beforehand with no prep

[Kevloaf]

Agree with that Charlie.

When I said he's "the one", I meant for me and not as a tip. I'll be heavily weighted behind him and respect fully all the opposition, but I don't mind being wrong on him because if I'm right it'll make my year.

I'll definitely profit from the gold cup, no question. Only Percy will be a huge win though

[bobbyvalentino]

No proof he's the one.ill stress that I'm not saying he can't win.

Shattered love has beat him the once they lined up , not taking that literal ofcourse but she's improved considerably too. (No suprise as shes huge) Alboum photo would have been within 2 lengths either way in the rsa iv no doubt of that, in what was the 7th run of his life. He's improved too since then.
Percy had the experiance last year we'll soon find out in the Lexus if the others have caught up. I really think they have . With Alboum photo and shattered love being the main 2 imo.

And I'd have to mention rathvinden and monalee as having there own chances. The former stays all day. The latter has learned to harness his energy but needs to improve a little.

Have to agree, I wouldn't be taking 6/1 antepost about a Gold Cup horse.

ABF and Shattered Love are my two at the moment. ABF probably more speculative of the pair based around potential improvement and my belief he will be Mullins #1. He looks to have plenty of pace for a stayer. Shattered Love with the mares allowance and I really fancied her for the RSA last year (that went well). She's a proper three-miler and has been battle hardened through her races.

33/1 for both is too big.

[Can't Catch Me]

No proof he's the one.ill stress that I'm not saying he can't win.

Shattered love has beat him the once they lined up , not taking that literal ofcourse but she's improved considerably too. (No suprise as shes huge) Alboum photo would have been within 2 lengths either way in the rsa iv no doubt of that, in what was the 7th run of his life. He's improved too since then.
Percy had the experiance last year we'll soon find out in the Lexus if the others have caught up. I really think they have . With Alboum photo and shattered love being the main 2 imo.

And I'd have to mention rathvinden and monalee as having there own chances. The former stays all day. The latter has learned to harness his energy but needs to improve a little.

I backed ABP that day, but don't think he would have got within ten lengths myself. Interesting how we all read things differently.

[Scooby91]

I backed ABP that day, but don't think he would have got within ten lengths myself. Interesting how we all read things differently.

Iv watched it about 50 times I see him either winning by 2 or losing by 2. Ruby haddnt asked for him and positioned him by the stands to get at him after he landed. He diddnt land and that's that. I think he improved since anyway in the airyhouse gold cup and punchestown. He always finishes his races very strongly


We all see things differently.

[Can't Catch Me]

Iv watched it about 50 times I see him either winning by 2 or losing by 2. Ruby haddnt asked for him and positioned him by the stands to get at him after he landed. He diddnt land and that's that. I think he improved since anyway in the airyhouse gold cup and punchestown. He always finishes his races very strongly

We all see things differently.

Ive watched it countless times as well. Was the final leg of an antepost ew trixie with Mengli Khan and Footpad all at big prices and the place part alone was worth a nice few quid. Took me a while to get over it.

At the end of the day neither of us will ever know.

[Scooby91]

Great to catch up with Presenting Percy’s owner Philip Reynolds yesterday - “He’s in terrific form”, says the man who pays the bills. Check the wink when the King George is mentioned…

https://mobile.twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1072061187414781952

[Quevega]

I'd say we all see the same thing,
But the brain interprets it differently, dependent upon a whole host of factors.

A dangerous factor for a gambler (although it can be a positive in terms of boosting confidence) is seeing something that most people don't see out of some sense of wishful thinking/self reinforcement or Love. Then following that to your cost.

I thought Don Cossack was going to win the King George when he fell and so backed him heavily for the Gold Cup.
It turned out well and whilst I never felt Cue Card would win (him falling certainly helped my cause)
A lot of people I know thought his Fall in the King George was out of tiredness (even though the comparative times between the fences told a different story)

Now that was a positive outcome for me but I've fooled myself in the way I've described above on far too many occasions to mention,
I try not to get married to many horses these days but this is often easier said than done.