View Poll Results: Which camp are you in ....

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  • Presenting Certainty

    22 53.66%
  • Presenting P*sstake

    19 46.34%
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  1. #11
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    I watched back a few of the Festival races at the weekend , A few horses that really impressed me , Have to say P.P
    definitely one of them. Monalee too .Happy to have them in
    my A/P bets.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Native River View Post
    Disko at 40/1 interests me, he has good novice chasing form and has shown he can stay 3 miles. I would be concerned about how he returns from injury must admit I haven't seen much since he's been ruled out to be honest. Noel Meade also does have Road To Respect who ran fairly well I thought to take 4th last year so whether he will keep Disko back for the Ryanair potentially.
    I'd like to know where he was going. He got a poor ride when 3rd in the JLT behind Yorkhill. As he gets 3m I feel he should have been bowling along infront and in the same vain, I'd have him as one on my mind for the Ryanair.

    I think he's a little bit below the class you'd need to win a normal Gold Cup however 'a little bit' isn't hard to make up;. He was part of the form with Our Duke that I was so keen on. He did beat Our Duke and Anibale Fly (by 5L) on different occasions over the intermediate trip, and was beaten by them over 3m.... so I still think the Ryanair would be the better angle so far.

    I Wouldn't back him though at this stage - at very least I'd want to hear a positive bulletin.

  3. #13
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    My current Gold Cup situation:

    I'm a big fan of creating a book in the Gold Cup - as I am sure you all know. It's one of the most obvious races in terms of targets and is unsurprisingly one of the more formed ante-post markets every year. The bookies don't take many chances and certianly towards the head of the market the 'value' is hard to spot, and plenty of horses don't make it there... staying chasers are (I'd imagine) the hardest type of horse to train and keep sound!

    With that being the case, at this stage of the season (well, technically its befire the season, so pre-season) I am looking to utilise as many free bets as I can to back horses that I don't think are CERTAIN or even highly likely to run, but ARE potentially going to shorten dramatically if they did.

    For example, Douvan is 25/1 for the Gold Cup.
    Do I think he'll run at this stage? No.
    Is it implausable that they do step him up in trip this year? No.
    Would Douvan go off 25/1 if he lined up in a Gold Cup? No.
    I'd be surprised if he was double figures in any race her ever contested though, so worth getting in the book? Yes

    If the was 25/1 NRNB I'd have an almighty big bet on Douvan (as I think this is one of the best ante-post betting angles available for punters) - but obviously that concession is at least 4 months away yet - so I am using free bets in a similar vain to how I'd look at exploiting NRNB markets.

    I've only staked 5 pts so far, all of which were actually placed before this year's festival:

    Presenting Percy 40/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return = 102.5 pts
    Monalee 33/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return would be = 85 pts
    Douvan 25/1 - win return = 50 pts
    Al Boum Photo 33/1 - win return = 49.5 pts
    Anibale Fly 40/1 - win return = 20 pts
    Balko Des Flos 40/1 - win returns = 40 pts
    Shattered Love 25/1 - win returns = 50 pts

    Balko Des Flos is probably a better example that Douvan - not a chance he'd go off 40/1 as the previous years Ryanair winner. More likely to go for the Ryanair sure, but being owned by Gigginstown I don't think Balko Des Flos should be anywhere bigger than 20/1 even with the uncertainty about the target.

    In terms of who I actually fancy the most, its Presenting Percy. He's the one going in the majority of my multiples and the horse I am most excited about. I don't think he's particularly good value this far out at 6/1. I don't want to speculate on what his starting price would be at this stage because there are way too many factors involved and we have no idea what would show up on the day as just one that would affect it massively. I do know though, that if by time we get to Gold Cup day, if Presenting Percy is favourite, it'll be the most important race in my life for financial interest (lots of ifs and buts before we get anywhere near that though!)

    Despite being what may seem as quite bullish thoughts regarding Presenting Percy, my approach to the Gold Cup and making a book does mean that I'd still make money even if I was wrong (or if he got injured and missed the race!). I appreciate that won't be everyones cup of tea but it works for me.

    Near the head of the market the 1-2 from this year both have obvious chances in Might Bite and Native River. I absolutely won't be getting them in my book with free bets at this stage because I won't collate enough free bets (I do spread them around rather than focus on just 1 race) but I've found leaving the horses at less than 10/1 has worked well over the years - Thistlecrack was a huge ante post loser for me the season he won the King George and if I'd had the approach I have now, and waited until the day to back him, and used free bets elsewhere, I'd have had a much better race... it's simialr this year with Might Bite.... if Might Bite lines up on the day, he won't be likely to be 13/2 that I could take now... however because he's as short as he is now, the difference in price isn't going to be big enough to be worthwhile in my opinion, when the chances are I'd fancy his cahnces and be in a good position to back him on the day for profit using the poitential returns from any 'outsiders' winning that I already have in my book as the justification to be able to have a bet on him. I might not be explaining this very well but I'll be as open as usual through the season with what I'e staked and where/when.

    Of the horses I haven't got backed yet that are above 10/1 ....
    Footpad 16/1 and Sizing John 20/1 are next in the betting, Footpad is another obvious candidate for shortening if he turned up. I don't think he will turn up however, backing it at 16/1 with free bets will be nice if I am wrong! To be fair, Mullins has literally said "he could be a Gold Cup horse" and while I'd consider somebody close to barking mad if they backed a Mullins horse for a target based on that this far out, using up 'free bets' when he'd clearly be at least half the price isn't barking mad in my eyes...

    Sizing John I'm in less of a rush to back, although a former Gold Cup winner at 20/1 only has to re-appear and show he's in good working order and that price also gets cut right up. I'd sooner have a 20 free bet on Sizing John at 20/1 than Might Bite at 13/2 (however the bookies that offer free bbets, it looks like 16/1 with PP is about as good as you could get)...

    Bellshill 25/1 I can leave, Douvan and Shattered Love are next who I've covered...
    Road To Respect 25/1 isn't bad considering the ground also was against him.... he's one I'll end up covering probably... altrhough no real rush.
    Thistlecrack if I could get 33/1 possible, Killultagh Vic I was keen on last year but nah?
    Waiting Paitently 25/1 I don't think you can back before NRNB unless its with free bets
    Al Boum Photo I've backed, I think he's a decent price for real money at this stage.
    Monalee is still 33/1 - I'd consider that with free bets if I hadn't already backed him... Presenting Percy did put him in his place but he was a good 2nd and if PP wasn't there, he'd be a player (and you never fear one horse!)

    I won't go through them all, that's enough.... but that is my position so far

    Welcome any thoughts/questions/critisisms ...

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    My current Gold Cup situation:

    I'm a big fan of creating a book in the Gold Cup - as I am sure you all know. It's one of the most obvious races in terms of targets and is unsurprisingly one of the more formed ante-post markets every year. The bookies don't take many chances and certianly towards the head of the market the 'value' is hard to spot, and plenty of horses don't make it there... staying chasers are (I'd imagine) the hardest type of horse to train and keep sound!

    With that being the case, at this stage of the season (well, technically its befire the season, so pre-season) I am looking to utilise as many free bets as I can to back horses that I don't think are CERTAIN or even highly likely to run, but ARE potentially going to shorten dramatically if they did.

    For example, Douvan is 25/1 for the Gold Cup.
    Do I think he'll run at this stage? No.
    Is it implausable that they do step him up in trip this year? No.
    Would Douvan go off 25/1 if he lined up in a Gold Cup? No.
    I'd be surprised if he was double figures in any race her ever contested though, so worth getting in the book? Yes

    If the was 25/1 NRNB I'd have an almighty big bet on Douvan (as I think this is one of the best ante-post betting angles available for punters) - but obviously that concession is at least 4 months away yet - so I am using free bets in a similar vain to how I'd look at exploiting NRNB markets.

    I've only staked 5 pts so far, all of which were actually placed before this year's festival:

    Presenting Percy 40/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return = 102.5 pts
    Monalee 33/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return would be = 85 pts
    Douvan 25/1 - win return = 50 pts
    Al Boum Photo 33/1 - win return = 49.5 pts
    Anibale Fly 40/1 - win return = 20 pts
    Balko Des Flos 40/1 - win returns = 40 pts
    Shattered Love 25/1 - win returns = 50 pts

    Balko Des Flos is probably a better example that Douvan - not a chance he'd go off 40/1 as the previous years Ryanair winner. More likely to go for the Ryanair sure, but being owned by Gigginstown I don't think Balko Des Flos should be anywhere bigger than 20/1 even with the uncertainty about the target.

    In terms of who I actually fancy the most, its Presenting Percy. He's the one going in the majority of my multiples and the horse I am most excited about. I don't think he's particularly good value this far out at 6/1. I don't want to speculate on what his starting price would be at this stage because there are way too many factors involved and we have no idea what would show up on the day as just one that would affect it massively. I do know though, that if by time we get to Gold Cup day, if Presenting Percy is favourite, it'll be the most important race in my life for financial interest (lots of ifs and buts before we get anywhere near that though!)

    Despite being what may seem as quite bullish thoughts regarding Presenting Percy, my approach to the Gold Cup and making a book does mean that I'd still make money even if I was wrong (or if he got injured and missed the race!). I appreciate that won't be everyones cup of tea but it works for me.

    Near the head of the market the 1-2 from this year both have obvious chances in Might Bite and Native River. I absolutely won't be getting them in my book with free bets at this stage because I won't collate enough free bets (I do spread them around rather than focus on just 1 race) but I've found leaving the horses at less than 10/1 has worked well over the years - Thistlecrack was a huge ante post loser for me the season he won the King George and if I'd had the approach I have now, and waited until the day to back him, and used free bets elsewhere, I'd have had a much better race... it's simialr this year with Might Bite.... if Might Bite lines up on the day, he won't be likely to be 13/2 that I could take now... however because he's as short as he is now, the difference in price isn't going to be big enough to be worthwhile in my opinion, when the chances are I'd fancy his cahnces and be in a good position to back him on the day for profit using the poitential returns from any 'outsiders' winning that I already have in my book as the justification to be able to have a bet on him. I might not be explaining this very well but I'll be as open as usual through the season with what I'e staked and where/when.

    Of the horses I haven't got backed yet that are above 10/1 ....
    Footpad 16/1 and Sizing John 20/1 are next in the betting, Footpad is another obvious candidate for shortening if he turned up. I don't think he will turn up however, backing it at 16/1 with free bets will be nice if I am wrong! To be fair, Mullins has literally said "he could be a Gold Cup horse" and while I'd consider somebody close to barking mad if they backed a Mullins horse for a target based on that this far out, using up 'free bets' when he'd clearly be at least half the price isn't barking mad in my eyes...

    Sizing John I'm in less of a rush to back, although a former Gold Cup winner at 20/1 only has to re-appear and show he's in good working order and that price also gets cut right up. I'd sooner have a 20 free bet on Sizing John at 20/1 than Might Bite at 13/2 (however the bookies that offer free bbets, it looks like 16/1 with PP is about as good as you could get)...

    Bellshill 25/1 I can leave, Douvan and Shattered Love are next who I've covered...
    Road To Respect 25/1 isn't bad considering the ground also was against him.... he's one I'll end up covering probably... altrhough no real rush.
    Thistlecrack if I could get 33/1 possible, Killultagh Vic I was keen on last year but nah?
    Waiting Paitently 25/1 I don't think you can back before NRNB unless its with free bets
    Al Boum Photo I've backed, I think he's a decent price for real money at this stage.
    Monalee is still 33/1 - I'd consider that with free bets if I hadn't already backed him... Presenting Percy did put him in his place but he was a good 2nd and if PP wasn't there, he'd be a player (and you never fear one horse!)

    I won't go through them all, that's enough.... but that is my position so far

    Welcome any thoughts/questions/critisisms ...
    Fair play Kev, it's not a race I get too stuck into tbh, but the only 2 I am interested in right now are Might Bite & Presenting Percy, which is incredibly boring and how the bookmakers see the race, at this current, extremely early stage.

    You are right though, the value in these 2 horses can be disputed, I think it is minimal, the way PP is campaigned he is very likely to lose some sort of race before he makes it to the festival, just like he did the season just gone before routing the RSA field, this alone will likely affect his price, even if it is only small amounts. I think of the 2 at the head of the betting it will be Might Bite that will shorten quicker leading up to the festival, as I have no doubt that the King George will be a big target of his this coming season yet again.

    One thing Pat Kelly is not scared of is getting his horses beat, and his training performances and races contested by PP will be geared towards the Gold Cup.

    The only way I will be backing Native River is if the forecast is looking grim, and soft/heavy is likely, but I think we'd be pretty unlucky to have 2 festivals in a row under them conditions.

    I can't, hand on heart, find it in me to back anything else at this stage, my 2 bets on PP & MB are incredibly small to date anyway so they wouldn't create much of a dent should neither win anyway.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by BigChaang View Post
    I watched back a few of the Festival races at the weekend , A few horses that really impressed me , Have to say P.P
    definitely one of them. Monalee too .Happy to have them in
    my A/P bets.

    I love Monalee. He’s one of my favourite horses in training.

    I’ll have a few quid on him for this but it’s the Ryanair that he will run in (and win). Both he and PP are high class.

    Personally, I think Monalee goes for the Ryanair to avoid Percy but Percy gets beat in the Gold Cup by Might Bite.

  6. #16
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    My Gold cup bets are - Presenting percy -6-1. (biggest bet)
    - Native river -8-1. (2nd biggest bet)
    - road to respect -25-1.
    - Shattered love -25-1.
    - Monalee -33-1.
    - Al boumphoto -33-1.
    - Anibale fly - 40-1.(3rd biggest bet)
    - Black corton - 50-1. - small bet
    - coney island -50-1. -small bet

  7. #17
    This has the best race to bet in AP no ?
    Targets are clear and there is unlikely to be a wildcard that rises through the ranks unexpectedly, Thistlecrack aside no novice will take their chance.
    6/1-7/1 the top two look good on any AP book, we know they have talent and only injury will stop them lining up.
    I’ll be pressing PP and Might Bite for the next few months....

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I'd like to know where he was going. He got a poor ride when 3rd in the JLT behind Yorkhill. As he gets 3m I feel he should have been bowling along infront and in the same vain, I'd have him as one on my mind for the Ryanair.

    I think he's a little bit below the class you'd need to win a normal Gold Cup however 'a little bit' isn't hard to make up;. He was part of the form with Our Duke that I was so keen on. He did beat Our Duke and Anibale Fly (by 5L) on different occasions over the intermediate trip, and was beaten by them over 3m.... so I still think the Ryanair would be the better angle so far.

    I Wouldn't back him though at this stage - at very least I'd want to hear a positive bulletin.
    Yeah I must admit the form being over the intermediate trip does tend to point towards the Ryanair for Disko. Have noticed 20/1 any race on William Hill though which I might have a think over.

    As MOM mentioned though, I see Monalee running the Ryanair and winning it which would put me off backing anyone else for it as I think over that distance Monalee is a tough contender to beat!

  9. #19
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    Istabraq, Coneygree also took his chance and took it brilliantly as a novice.

  10. #20
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    Oli Bell was at Mullins' yesterday. My guess is that they'll air the footage on Saturday or during York but it may well give a few snippets on likely targets as things stand.

    As always, it's an elimination exercise.
    Past winners tend not to turn up, never mind follow up. Scratch Native River and Sizing John.
    10yos don't win. Scratch Might Bite and Killultagh Vic.

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