Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[ComplyOrDie]

Jumped on Sizing John @ 20/1.

Must admit, he seems a bit of a forgotten horse, given he is a winner of the race which included having this years winner behind in 3rd.

His well being is obviously something that needs to be proved, but for a horse that won the Irish Gold Cup, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Punchestown Gold Cup and then the John Durkan, 20/1 seems a bit disrespectful IMO, based on one bad run where clearly something was amiss.

Quite remarkably he is only going to be 9 years old too which fits within the trends/stats, added to the fact he wasn't racing after the new year means he should be a lot fresher than some of the others who went on to compete in some tough old races, including this years Gold Cup, which ultimately was a slog.

As I had mentioned earlier in the post, the only basis for his price must be his well being, but I'd have every belief that Jessie and the team would be able to get him back on track, otherwise, IMO, no reason why we wouldn't have heard of his retirement, because they surely would not ask him to run in lesser races.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Jumped on Sizing John @ 20/1.

Must admit, he seems a bit of a forgotten horse, given he is a winner of the race which included having this years winner behind in 3rd.

His well being is obviously something that needs to be proved, but for a horse that won the Irish Gold Cup, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Punchestown Gold Cup and then the John Durkan, 20/1 seems a bit disrespectful IMO, based on one bad run where clearly something was amiss.

Quite remarkably he is only going to be 9 years old too which fits within the trends/stats, added to the fact he wasn't racing after the new year means he should be a lot fresher than some of the others who went on to compete in some tough old races, including this years Gold Cup, which ultimately was a slog.

As I had mentioned earlier in the post, the only basis for his price must be his well being, but I'd have every belief that Jessie and the team would be able to get him back on track, otherwise, IMO, no reason why we wouldn't have heard of his retirement, because they surely would not ask him to run in lesser races.

He's in training and ready to run before Xmas. Kate Harrington said he could even reappear over 2 miles

[ComplyOrDie]

He's in training and ready to run before Xmas. Kate Harrington said he could even reappear over 2 miles

That'll be the cobweb blower then.

Ultimate goals will always be the Gold Cup's. Good news though, thanks FM!

[Faugheen_Machine]

That'll be the cobweb blower then.

Ultimate goals will always be the Gold Cup's. Good news though, thanks FM!

Yep. She said they have the option of running over 2, 2.5 or 3 miles. He'd be a leading contender providing the injury hasn't taken its toll but that is a big question mark imo

[ComplyOrDie]

Yep. She said they have the option of running over 2, 2.5 or 3 miles. He'd be a leading contender providing the injury hasn't taken its toll but that is a big question mark imo

20/1 for that question mark, happy to have a play

[Kevloaf]

20/1 for that question mark, happy to have a play

As a previous C&D winner 20/1 is fair about any horse when they're only 9.

He has fewer question marks to answer.... however the one question he does have to answer is a big one... does he retain his ability - if so, is that good enough to win this years renewal.

I'd want a yes in both at this stage however I'm closer to backing him at 20s than I am Native River at 8/1!

[mayo]

Anyone got any news on Rathvinden?

Apart from the ride of the year thing

[BigChaang]

Jockey Sean Flanagan talking about Road to Respect today in R.Post , say's he's stronger and bigger ,
Think's it will be a gold cup campaign this season , also mention's Disko.

[mayo]

Looking for second season chasers ...is Percy only one on the radar

[SeanRock]

Looking for second season chasers ...is Percy only one on the radar

If Monalee has matured and strengthened up over the summer he has to be a player Mayo, same goes for Shattered Love & ABP! Think last years RSA was a good quality field personally.

[Istabraq]

Looking for second season chasers ...is Percy only one on the radar

I wouldn’t totally dismiss Kemboy Mayo.
Given a strange campaign for me, needing stamina tests they opted for the JLT instead of the RSA and was well fancied that day but never really landed a blow, they then gave him a crack at the Irish National only for him to fall at the first but recovered to land two valuable prizes before his Summer off.
This one could have flown under the radar....

[Kevloaf]

My good friend Terrefort must be worth serious consideration at 33/1 for this race musn't he?

Hendo sums up last season nicely in his ATR stable tour... "He doesn’t show you anything at home but I like horses like him and he progressed out of recognition as the season went on."

I like horses like him too, that save the best for the track - and he isn't wrong, he has progressed from very average French form to winning a Grade 1 at the Aintree Fesival!

Positives
The 2nd in the JLT to Shattered Love has to be taken as a positive, it gives me no doubts he can handle the track - He went off fav for the JLT and although SL has been beaten twice since - you can make excuses for the run at Punchestown (well worth watching back just for the drama at the final fence) and Al Boum Photo did beat SL 1L but I really rate ABP so wouldn't knock that run.

The biggest amount of improvement though came with Terrefort stepping up to 3m. Be beat Ms Parfois by nearly 4L, who we know is a strong stayer - having only gone down half a length over 4 miles at Cheltenham behind Rathvinden. The way he asserted in the final furlong was really impressive and the trip has to be the angle in to him being a good value bet.

The form at Aintree seems to not give him the credit he deserves - I know it's a completely different track and day, but in 3rd at Aintree he had Elegant Escape 12L back - and Elegant Escape was 14L behind Presenting Percy in the RSA. I do love Percy and think he's better but when PP is 6/1 and Terrefort is 33/1 and more unexposed you do have to take another look at the collateral form (albeit not a strong case) I think if Terrefort improved again this season he will be right in the mix come March!

Hendo has also said:
"We are thinking of that Intermediate Chase that Might Bite won last year then have a look at the Ladbrokes trophy. That is the thought subject to a lot of changes."

Following the same path that Might Bite took is a positive for me too, the trainer is fantastic and there aren't many trainers who you'd rather have training a Gold Cup horse than Nicky.

Negatives:
Ground? Does Terrefort need soft ground? He's had 9 runs in his life, 8 on soft and 1 on good. I can't recall any good ground over the winter and it doesn't look like he avoided good ground, but it is a slight unknown so has to be in the negative section.

Irish horses much stronger? - Presenting Percy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo, Shattered Love - on form, all 4 of those are better than Terrefort at the moment. When Terrefort won at Aintree, he did only beat British horses (with the exception of Snow Falcon who PU and didn't run his race) - even if Terrefort rises to near the top of the British 3m chase divison, will he just get chinned by the (seemingly) top class bunch of Irish Novice chasers from last season - The Flogas and Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown for me were easily the best form races of last season and we're all dominated by Irish horses. The only notable contender from England was Finian's Oscar was carried out whilst in 2nd in the latter race, but that horse was an enigma and clearly very talented on his best day. Overall I think it's really hard to say that the Irish don't have the upper hand with the second season chasers and that has to be a negative for Terrefort. even if he had a stellar season leading to Cheltenham, I fear he'd still come up short.

Too Young? Will only be 6 for his Gold Cup year, it was too much for Bristol De Mai. Long Run was the last 6 year old winner (which does have its positives as he was also French bred and with Nicky Henderson) but before Long Run is was Mill House in 1963. I won't be doing an in-depth look into how many 6yo runners there have actually been, but logic tells you it isn't a race that would suit younger horses in general.

Conclusion

He is 3 wins from 4 chases, form reads 1121, has a top class proven Gold Cup winning trainer, is young and improving and unexposed at 3 mile trips with some nice Cheltenham form in the bag. It may be a year too soon for him but I think he's underestimated at 33/1 for the 2019 Gold Cup.

[BigChaang]

Agree with your thoughts on Terrefort Kev., may be a year too soon ??, Ladbrokes Trophy this year,
/ G.C next year as per Native river ??.

[Folski]

My good friend Terrefort must be worth serious consideration at 33/1 for this race musn't he?

Hendo sums up last season nicely in his ATR stable tour... "He doesn’t show you anything at home but I like horses like him and he progressed out of recognition as the season went on."

I like horses like him too, that save the best for the track - and he isn't wrong, he has progressed from very average French form to winning a Grade 1 at the Aintree Fesival!

Positives
The 2nd in the JLT to Shattered Love has to be taken as a positive, it gives me no doubts he can handle the track - He went off fav for the JLT and although SL has been beaten twice since - you can make excuses for the run at Punchestown (well worth watching back just for the drama at the final fence) and Al Boum Photo did beat SL 1L but I really rate ABP so wouldn't knock that run.

The biggest amount of improvement though came with Terrefort stepping up to 3m. Be beat Ms Parfois by nearly 4L, who we know is a strong stayer - having only gone down half a length over 4 miles at Cheltenham behind Rathvinden. The way he asserted in the final furlong was really impressive and the trip has to be the angle in to him being a good value bet.

The form at Aintree seems to not give him the credit he deserves - I know it's a completely different track and day, but in 3rd at Aintree he had Elegant Escape 12L back - and Elegant Escape was 14L behind Presenting Percy in the RSA. I do love Percy and think he's better but when PP is 6/1 and Terrefort is 33/1 and more unexposed you do have to take another look at the collateral form (albeit not a strong case) I think if Terrefort improved again this season he will be right in the mix come March!

Hendo has also said:
"We are thinking of that Intermediate Chase that Might Bite won last year then have a look at the Ladbrokes trophy. That is the thought subject to a lot of changes."

Following the same path that Might Bite took is a positive for me too, the trainer is fantastic and there aren't many trainers who you'd rather have training a Gold Cup horse than Nicky.

Negatives:
Ground? Does Terrefort need soft ground? He's had 9 runs in his life, 8 on soft and 1 on good. I can't recall any good ground over the winter and it doesn't look like he avoided good ground, but it is a slight unknown so has to be in the negative section.

Irish horses much stronger? - Presenting Percy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo, Shattered Love - on form, all 4 of those are better than Terrefort at the moment. When Terrefort won at Aintree, he did only beat British horses (with the exception of Snow Falcon who PU and didn't run his race) - even if Terrefort rises to near the top of the British 3m chase divison, will he just get chinned by the (seemingly) top class bunch of Irish Novice chasers from last season - The Flogas and Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown for me were easily the best form races of last season and we're all dominated by Irish horses. The only notable contender from England was Finian's Oscar was carried out whilst in 2nd in the latter race, but that horse was an enigma and clearly very talented on his best day. Overall I think it's really hard to say that the Irish don't have the upper hand with the second season chasers and that has to be a negative for Terrefort. even if he had a stellar season leading to Cheltenham, I fear he'd still come up short.

Too Young? Will only be 6 for his Gold Cup year, it was too much for Bristol De Mai. Long Run was the last 6 year old winner (which does have its positives as he was also French bred and with Nicky Henderson) but before Long Run is was Mill House in 1963. I won't be doing an in-depth look into how many 6yo runners there have actually been, but logic tells you it isn't a race that would suit younger horses in general.

Conclusion

He is 3 wins from 4 chases, form reads 1121, has a top class proven Gold Cup winning trainer, is young and improving and unexposed at 3 mile trips with some nice Cheltenham form in the bag. It may be a year too soon for him but I think he's underestimated at 33/1 for the 2019 Gold Cup.

Kev, I only said the exact same thing myself last week. The thing with Terrefort is that he is 5, five, which is insane, I know he's a french bred and started early but still. Look at the improvement in Footpad from 5 to 6 which obviously had to do with going over fences but not all of it, surely, some of it was to do with growing up. Surely Terrefort can improve for simply growing up and filling out, can he find 10-15lb, I would think so, it's not unreasonable and if he does, he will go close.

I had a look at 6 year old chasers recently that had run in novice chases and the amount of improvement from 6 to 7 was huge. Al Boum is definitely on my radar for the GC and at the prices I am going to add these two.

[BigChaang]

Road to Respect and Don Poli have entries for the Irish daily Star Chase at Punchestown .4-10 next wed 17th.Oct.