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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

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  • Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

    Well ,., here goes ........, The Blue riband , Arguably THE Race of the Festival.
    Last March we witnessed the spectacle of Native river and Might bite doing battle for the
    Festival's major prize ,.
    For the 2019 renewal , the two above are at the head of the betting along with R.S.A winner Presenting Percy .
    Currently the market is Headed by Presenting percy @ 6-1.
    followed by ............. Might bite - 6-1
    Native River at - 8-1
    Footpad - 16-1
    Sizing John at - 20-1
    Bellshill - 25-1
    Douvan - 25-1
    Road to Respect - 25-1
    Shattered love - 25-1
    Al Boum Photo -33-1
    Terrefort - 33-1
    Waiting Patiently - 33-1
    Killultagh Vic - 33-1
    Monalee -33-1
    Thistlecrack -33-1
    Bristol de mai -33-1
    Faugheen -33-1
    Balko des flos -40-1
    Disko -40-1
    Anibale fly -40-1
    Definitely red -40-1
    Benie des dieux -40-1
    Willoughby court -50-1
    Clan des obeaux -50-1
    Blaklion -50-1
    Kemboy -50-1
    Coney island -50-1
    Minella rocco -50-1
    Total recall -50-1
    Altior -50-1
    Samcro -50-1
    Invitation only -66-1
    Black corton -66-1
    And Last But not Least- Tiger Roll -100-1.
    .
    So the List is Long , Too long for me to detail every one ,. But i suppose you could pick
    maybe 6 or 8 who probably won't line up , and maybe another half dozen ??, who are
    probably not the most likely winners, But that still leaves a Tidy puzzle to pick .
    For me personally , I'm in the Presenting percy camp , BUT , I also think that if he's lightly
    Campaigned again , Native river could have a say.I Was all over Might bite last season ,
    But the 10 year old stat niggles me . I really think Last march was his Best chance of
    success, Road to respect has to have a shout , and if Anibale fly runs again and does'nt
    go over longer trips , i.e the G,national ,also in my reckoning .. So my net is cast wide at the
    moment , But right now if i had to pick one out , it's Percy for me.
    68
    Presenting Certainty
    55.88%
    38
    Presenting P*sstake
    44.12%
    30

  • #2
    Assuming it’s not heavy ground, Might Bite will go very well. I’d have him favourite at about 4/1 at this stage. Have been nibbling at the 13/2 available.

    I don’t trust the trainer of PP to not prep him weirdl like he did before the RSA. He got away with it then but he won’t for a Gold Cup.

    For me, Might Bite (13/2) wins the 2019 Gold Cup

    Comment


    • #3
      All things considered, I think Might Bite should be favourite at this stage. If the ground wasn't like a ploughed field last season, he'd (more than likely) already be a gold cup winner.

      PP will have to improve but he appears to be heading in the right direction. I have no concerns over the trainer at all, in fact, I see him as a positive given his Cheltenham record.

      Comment


      • #4
        Currently have:

        Bellshill @ 90
        Minella Rocco @ 150
        Road To Respect @ 44
        Presenting Percy @ 8
        Sizing John @ 22
        Disko @ 70
        Blaklion @ 370
        Coney Island @ 170
        Anibale Fly @ 150
        Yorkhill @ 380
        Politilogue @ 150

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
          Assuming it’s not heavy ground, Might Bite will go very well. I’d have him favourite at about 4/1 at this stage. Have been nibbling at the 13/2 available.

          I don’t trust the trainer of PP to not prep him weirdl like he did before the RSA. He got away with it then but he won’t for a Gold Cup.

          For me, Might Bite (13/2) wins the 2019 Gold Cup
          What is the thinking behind him being a 4/1 shot for you MoM? I'm always interested if people make their own market.

          I'd agree he (Might Bite) sets the standard but I think the staying novices were a very good bunch overall with some very exciting horses (like Presenting Percy) at the top of the class ... so I'm not in any rush to get Might Bite in the book, but I wouldn't be in a rush for PP at his price either!

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
            All things considered, I think Might Bite should be favourite at this stage. If the ground wasn't like a ploughed field last season, he'd (more than likely) already be a gold cup winner.

            PP will have to improve but he appears to be heading in the right direction. I have no concerns over the trainer at all, in fact, I see him as a positive given his Cheltenham record.
            Pat Kelly is am excellent pot hunter and target trainer for me as well. No way I'd see him as a negative. You don't win an RSA or Festival handicap or two with such a small string unless you've got a lot of talent.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              What is the thinking behind him being a 4/1 shot for you MoM? I'm always interested if people make their own market.

              I'd agree he (Might Bite) sets the standard but I think the staying novices were a very good bunch overall with some very exciting horses (like Presenting Percy) at the top of the class ... so I'm not in any rush to get Might Bite in the book, but I wouldn't be in a rush for PP at his price either!
              There’s not much science to it tbh Kev. I just think of it that if I had to make a market, I’d have him at about 4/1.

              Family often ask me what I’d price up a race/football match etc and I’m isually pretty close to what the real betting market turns out to be. All guessing really isn’t it.

              For what it’s worth, I’d have it:
              Might Bite - 4/1
              Presenting Percy - 5/1
              Native River - 15/2
              Sizing John - 10/1
              Road To Reapect - 12/1
              Thistlecrack - 16/1
              Annibale Fly - 16/1
              Balko Des Flos - 18/1
              Douvan - 20/1
              Bellshill - 20/1
              Waiting Patiently - 25/1
              Footpad - 25/1
              Monalee - 28/1
              Al Boum Photo 33/1
              Shattered Love - 33/1
              Samcro - 40/1
              Bristol De Mai - 40/1
              Bar - 50/1

              Comment


              • #8
                a bit from Donn ( from a while back)

                RSA Chase form gets stronger still
                The form of this year’s RSA Chase continues to get stronger.

                The winner Presenting Percy has not run again since, but the second Monalee would surely have gone close to winning the Grade 1 Growise Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown had he not come down at the second last fence. Henry de Bromhead’s horse had just hit the front and he appeared to be travelling better than any of his rivals when he got the second last fence wrong.

                Al Boum Photo would have finished third in the RSA Chase had he not come down at the second last fence. Willie Mullins’ horse followed up by winning the Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, and he probably would have won the Growise Chase after Monalee’s departure had the race not taken the bizarre twist that it did take.

                The RSA Chase third and fifth, Elegant Escape and Black Corton, were both beaten in the Mildmay Chase at Aintree, as long seasons probably caught up on the two of them. They were having, respectively, their seventh and 12th runs of the season.

                But Ballyoptic, fourth in the RSA Chase, went very close to winning the Scottish National at Ayr two weeks ago off a mark of 149. And even Allysson Monterg, pulled up in the RSA Chase, ran out an impressive winner of a handicap chase off a mark of 137 at Perth 10 days ago.

                It is not surprising that Presenting Percy is at the top of most lists for the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Disko at 40/1 interests me, he has good novice chasing form and has shown he can stay 3 miles. I would be concerned about how he returns from injury must admit I haven't seen much since he's been ruled out to be honest. Noel Meade also does have Road To Respect who ran fairly well I thought to take 4th last year so whether he will keep Disko back for the Ryanair potentially.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Pat Kelly is am excellent pot hunter and target trainer for me as well. No way I'd see him as a negative. You don't win an RSA or Festival handicap or two with such a small string unless you've got a lot of talent.
                    Absolutely correct lads! Pat Kelly is genius he has a very small stable compared to the big hitters but he more than punches above his weight and he knows exactly how to prep a specific horse for a Cheltenham target (It's his stand out skillset), thinking outside the box re: prep races shouldn't be seen as a negative, I'm hopeful his current price will most likely drift out during the winter because of this, so I think he's one to sit tight on!

                    Presenting Percy & Davy Russell were made for each other which is also a big plus, he'll have him switched off and sitting comfortably off the pace with plenty in the tank for the hill, can we say the same of Might Bite who can race freely enough.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I watched back a few of the Festival races at the weekend , A few horses that really impressed me , Have to say P.P
                      definitely one of them. Monalee too .Happy to have them in
                      my A/P bets.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Native River View Post
                        Disko at 40/1 interests me, he has good novice chasing form and has shown he can stay 3 miles. I would be concerned about how he returns from injury must admit I haven't seen much since he's been ruled out to be honest. Noel Meade also does have Road To Respect who ran fairly well I thought to take 4th last year so whether he will keep Disko back for the Ryanair potentially.
                        I'd like to know where he was going. He got a poor ride when 3rd in the JLT behind Yorkhill. As he gets 3m I feel he should have been bowling along infront and in the same vain, I'd have him as one on my mind for the Ryanair.

                        I think he's a little bit below the class you'd need to win a normal Gold Cup however 'a little bit' isn't hard to make up;. He was part of the form with Our Duke that I was so keen on. He did beat Our Duke and Anibale Fly (by 5L) on different occasions over the intermediate trip, and was beaten by them over 3m.... so I still think the Ryanair would be the better angle so far.

                        I Wouldn't back him though at this stage - at very least I'd want to hear a positive bulletin.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          My current Gold Cup situation:

                          I'm a big fan of creating a book in the Gold Cup - as I am sure you all know. It's one of the most obvious races in terms of targets and is unsurprisingly one of the more formed ante-post markets every year. The bookies don't take many chances and certianly towards the head of the market the 'value' is hard to spot, and plenty of horses don't make it there... staying chasers are (I'd imagine) the hardest type of horse to train and keep sound!

                          With that being the case, at this stage of the season (well, technically its befire the season, so pre-season) I am looking to utilise as many free bets as I can to back horses that I don't think are CERTAIN or even highly likely to run, but ARE potentially going to shorten dramatically if they did.

                          For example, Douvan is 25/1 for the Gold Cup.
                          Do I think he'll run at this stage? No.
                          Is it implausable that they do step him up in trip this year? No.
                          Would Douvan go off 25/1 if he lined up in a Gold Cup? No.
                          I'd be surprised if he was double figures in any race her ever contested though, so worth getting in the book? Yes

                          If the was 25/1 NRNB I'd have an almighty big bet on Douvan (as I think this is one of the best ante-post betting angles available for punters) - but obviously that concession is at least 4 months away yet - so I am using free bets in a similar vain to how I'd look at exploiting NRNB markets.

                          I've only staked 5 pts so far, all of which were actually placed before this year's festival:

                          Presenting Percy 40/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return = 102.5 pts
                          Monalee 33/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return would be = 85 pts
                          Douvan 25/1 - win return = 50 pts
                          Al Boum Photo 33/1 - win return = 49.5 pts
                          Anibale Fly 40/1 - win return = 20 pts
                          Balko Des Flos 40/1 - win returns = 40 pts
                          Shattered Love 25/1 - win returns = 50 pts

                          Balko Des Flos is probably a better example that Douvan - not a chance he'd go off 40/1 as the previous years Ryanair winner. More likely to go for the Ryanair sure, but being owned by Gigginstown I don't think Balko Des Flos should be anywhere bigger than 20/1 even with the uncertainty about the target.

                          In terms of who I actually fancy the most, its Presenting Percy. He's the one going in the majority of my multiples and the horse I am most excited about. I don't think he's particularly good value this far out at 6/1. I don't want to speculate on what his starting price would be at this stage because there are way too many factors involved and we have no idea what would show up on the day as just one that would affect it massively. I do know though, that if by time we get to Gold Cup day, if Presenting Percy is favourite, it'll be the most important race in my life for financial interest (lots of ifs and buts before we get anywhere near that though!)

                          Despite being what may seem as quite bullish thoughts regarding Presenting Percy, my approach to the Gold Cup and making a book does mean that I'd still make money even if I was wrong (or if he got injured and missed the race!). I appreciate that won't be everyones cup of tea but it works for me.

                          Near the head of the market the 1-2 from this year both have obvious chances in Might Bite and Native River. I absolutely won't be getting them in my book with free bets at this stage because I won't collate enough free bets (I do spread them around rather than focus on just 1 race) but I've found leaving the horses at less than 10/1 has worked well over the years - Thistlecrack was a huge ante post loser for me the season he won the King George and if I'd had the approach I have now, and waited until the day to back him, and used free bets elsewhere, I'd have had a much better race... it's simialr this year with Might Bite.... if Might Bite lines up on the day, he won't be likely to be 13/2 that I could take now... however because he's as short as he is now, the difference in price isn't going to be big enough to be worthwhile in my opinion, when the chances are I'd fancy his cahnces and be in a good position to back him on the day for profit using the poitential returns from any 'outsiders' winning that I already have in my book as the justification to be able to have a bet on him. I might not be explaining this very well but I'll be as open as usual through the season with what I'e staked and where/when.

                          Of the horses I haven't got backed yet that are above 10/1 ....
                          Footpad 16/1 and Sizing John 20/1 are next in the betting, Footpad is another obvious candidate for shortening if he turned up. I don't think he will turn up however, backing it at 16/1 with free bets will be nice if I am wrong! To be fair, Mullins has literally said "he could be a Gold Cup horse" and while I'd consider somebody close to barking mad if they backed a Mullins horse for a target based on that this far out, using up 'free bets' when he'd clearly be at least half the price isn't barking mad in my eyes...

                          Sizing John I'm in less of a rush to back, although a former Gold Cup winner at 20/1 only has to re-appear and show he's in good working order and that price also gets cut right up. I'd sooner have a £20 free bet on Sizing John at 20/1 than Might Bite at 13/2 (however the bookies that offer free bbets, it looks like 16/1 with PP is about as good as you could get)...

                          Bellshill 25/1 I can leave, Douvan and Shattered Love are next who I've covered...
                          Road To Respect 25/1 isn't bad considering the ground also was against him.... he's one I'll end up covering probably... altrhough no real rush.
                          Thistlecrack if I could get 33/1 possible, Killultagh Vic I was keen on last year but nah?
                          Waiting Paitently 25/1 I don't think you can back before NRNB unless its with free bets
                          Al Boum Photo I've backed, I think he's a decent price for real money at this stage.
                          Monalee is still 33/1 - I'd consider that with free bets if I hadn't already backed him... Presenting Percy did put him in his place but he was a good 2nd and if PP wasn't there, he'd be a player (and you never fear one horse!)

                          I won't go through them all, that's enough.... but that is my position so far

                          Welcome any thoughts/questions/critisisms ...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            My current Gold Cup situation:

                            I'm a big fan of creating a book in the Gold Cup - as I am sure you all know. It's one of the most obvious races in terms of targets and is unsurprisingly one of the more formed ante-post markets every year. The bookies don't take many chances and certianly towards the head of the market the 'value' is hard to spot, and plenty of horses don't make it there... staying chasers are (I'd imagine) the hardest type of horse to train and keep sound!

                            With that being the case, at this stage of the season (well, technically its befire the season, so pre-season) I am looking to utilise as many free bets as I can to back horses that I don't think are CERTAIN or even highly likely to run, but ARE potentially going to shorten dramatically if they did.

                            For example, Douvan is 25/1 for the Gold Cup.
                            Do I think he'll run at this stage? No.
                            Is it implausable that they do step him up in trip this year? No.
                            Would Douvan go off 25/1 if he lined up in a Gold Cup? No.
                            I'd be surprised if he was double figures in any race her ever contested though, so worth getting in the book? Yes

                            If the was 25/1 NRNB I'd have an almighty big bet on Douvan (as I think this is one of the best ante-post betting angles available for punters) - but obviously that concession is at least 4 months away yet - so I am using free bets in a similar vain to how I'd look at exploiting NRNB markets.

                            I've only staked 5 pts so far, all of which were actually placed before this year's festival:

                            Presenting Percy 40/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return = 102.5 pts
                            Monalee 33/1 - 2.5 pts win - win return would be = 85 pts
                            Douvan 25/1 - win return = 50 pts
                            Al Boum Photo 33/1 - win return = 49.5 pts
                            Anibale Fly 40/1 - win return = 20 pts
                            Balko Des Flos 40/1 - win returns = 40 pts
                            Shattered Love 25/1 - win returns = 50 pts

                            Balko Des Flos is probably a better example that Douvan - not a chance he'd go off 40/1 as the previous years Ryanair winner. More likely to go for the Ryanair sure, but being owned by Gigginstown I don't think Balko Des Flos should be anywhere bigger than 20/1 even with the uncertainty about the target.

                            In terms of who I actually fancy the most, its Presenting Percy. He's the one going in the majority of my multiples and the horse I am most excited about. I don't think he's particularly good value this far out at 6/1. I don't want to speculate on what his starting price would be at this stage because there are way too many factors involved and we have no idea what would show up on the day as just one that would affect it massively. I do know though, that if by time we get to Gold Cup day, if Presenting Percy is favourite, it'll be the most important race in my life for financial interest (lots of ifs and buts before we get anywhere near that though!)

                            Despite being what may seem as quite bullish thoughts regarding Presenting Percy, my approach to the Gold Cup and making a book does mean that I'd still make money even if I was wrong (or if he got injured and missed the race!). I appreciate that won't be everyones cup of tea but it works for me.

                            Near the head of the market the 1-2 from this year both have obvious chances in Might Bite and Native River. I absolutely won't be getting them in my book with free bets at this stage because I won't collate enough free bets (I do spread them around rather than focus on just 1 race) but I've found leaving the horses at less than 10/1 has worked well over the years - Thistlecrack was a huge ante post loser for me the season he won the King George and if I'd had the approach I have now, and waited until the day to back him, and used free bets elsewhere, I'd have had a much better race... it's simialr this year with Might Bite.... if Might Bite lines up on the day, he won't be likely to be 13/2 that I could take now... however because he's as short as he is now, the difference in price isn't going to be big enough to be worthwhile in my opinion, when the chances are I'd fancy his cahnces and be in a good position to back him on the day for profit using the poitential returns from any 'outsiders' winning that I already have in my book as the justification to be able to have a bet on him. I might not be explaining this very well but I'll be as open as usual through the season with what I'e staked and where/when.

                            Of the horses I haven't got backed yet that are above 10/1 ....
                            Footpad 16/1 and Sizing John 20/1 are next in the betting, Footpad is another obvious candidate for shortening if he turned up. I don't think he will turn up however, backing it at 16/1 with free bets will be nice if I am wrong! To be fair, Mullins has literally said "he could be a Gold Cup horse" and while I'd consider somebody close to barking mad if they backed a Mullins horse for a target based on that this far out, using up 'free bets' when he'd clearly be at least half the price isn't barking mad in my eyes...

                            Sizing John I'm in less of a rush to back, although a former Gold Cup winner at 20/1 only has to re-appear and show he's in good working order and that price also gets cut right up. I'd sooner have a £20 free bet on Sizing John at 20/1 than Might Bite at 13/2 (however the bookies that offer free bbets, it looks like 16/1 with PP is about as good as you could get)...

                            Bellshill 25/1 I can leave, Douvan and Shattered Love are next who I've covered...
                            Road To Respect 25/1 isn't bad considering the ground also was against him.... he's one I'll end up covering probably... altrhough no real rush.
                            Thistlecrack if I could get 33/1 possible, Killultagh Vic I was keen on last year but nah?
                            Waiting Paitently 25/1 I don't think you can back before NRNB unless its with free bets
                            Al Boum Photo I've backed, I think he's a decent price for real money at this stage.
                            Monalee is still 33/1 - I'd consider that with free bets if I hadn't already backed him... Presenting Percy did put him in his place but he was a good 2nd and if PP wasn't there, he'd be a player (and you never fear one horse!)

                            I won't go through them all, that's enough.... but that is my position so far

                            Welcome any thoughts/questions/critisisms ...
                            Fair play Kev, it's not a race I get too stuck into tbh, but the only 2 I am interested in right now are Might Bite & Presenting Percy, which is incredibly boring and how the bookmakers see the race, at this current, extremely early stage.

                            You are right though, the value in these 2 horses can be disputed, I think it is minimal, the way PP is campaigned he is very likely to lose some sort of race before he makes it to the festival, just like he did the season just gone before routing the RSA field, this alone will likely affect his price, even if it is only small amounts. I think of the 2 at the head of the betting it will be Might Bite that will shorten quicker leading up to the festival, as I have no doubt that the King George will be a big target of his this coming season yet again.

                            One thing Pat Kelly is not scared of is getting his horses beat, and his training performances and races contested by PP will be geared towards the Gold Cup.

                            The only way I will be backing Native River is if the forecast is looking grim, and soft/heavy is likely, but I think we'd be pretty unlucky to have 2 festivals in a row under them conditions.

                            I can't, hand on heart, find it in me to back anything else at this stage, my 2 bets on PP & MB are incredibly small to date anyway so they wouldn't create much of a dent should neither win anyway.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
                              I watched back a few of the Festival races at the weekend , A few horses that really impressed me , Have to say P.P
                              definitely one of them. Monalee too .Happy to have them in
                              my A/P bets.

                              I love Monalee. He’s one of my favourite horses in training.

                              I’ll have a few quid on him for this but it’s the Ryanair that he will run in (and win). Both he and PP are high class.

                              Personally, I think Monalee goes for the Ryanair to avoid Percy but Percy gets beat in the Gold Cup by Might Bite.

                              Comment

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