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Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

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  • Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

    Unashamedly a plug for my horse, Robin De Carlow, who won her maiden hurdle on Friday.

    Robin De Carlow was a clear-cut winner of the opening mares' maiden hurdle in Kilbeggan despite blundering at the last.


    In itself a fairly humdrum affair but made more interesting by looking at the two previous winners of this race.
    2016 Airlie Beach (NHF RPR 107/RPR for this race 127)
    2017 Mystic Theatre (115/131)
    2018 Robin De Carlow (112/128)

    The main stat for the short history of the Mares Novice is that the winner is a Mullins trained favourite so it's probably worth compiling a list of his possible runners and keeping an eye on how they progress. So far:

    Robin De Carlow
    Very like Airlie Beach in that she's not very big and was very green in her bumper.

    Chante Neige
    Fetching 3yo performance for Macaire but not seen since moving to Closutton. Favourite in the early betting.

    Salsaretta
    Came to Ireland with a big reputation. Fell in the race last season but won her maiden in May (RPR 126).

    Colreevy
    Near the top of the bumper fillies and mares. Yet to run over hurdles.

    Relegate
    Same as Colreevy.

    Pakora
    Whispers last season but didn't run. Won her maiden in May (RPR 132).

  • #2
    There will also be a number of expensive imports and there is currently a log-jam in mares bumpers because of the fast ground. Willie doesn't like running two in the same bumper unless one is owner ridden or there's black type up for grabs. As 7yos can't run in the Cheltenham bumper, if a current 6yo bumper mare is going to Cheltenham it will be in this race and it's worthwhile keeping an eye on the mares bumpers through the autumn.
    Last edited by archie; 22 July 2018, 12:00 PM.

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    • #3
      All the talk last year was that Salsaretta was the one and it was only when Laurina was on the track we all realised what a beast she was

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      • #4
        I had Nicky Henderson's Daphne Du Clos marked for this years race before she got injured and was put away. Has anyone heard anything with regards her fitness? Very well thought of by all accounts. Jeremiah McGrath & Noel Fehily gave her glowing references this time last year. Earmarking this race as made for her with her turn of pace.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
          I had Nicky Henderson's Daphne Du Clos marked for this years race before she got injured and was put away. Has anyone heard anything with regards her fitness? Very well thought of by all accounts. Jeremiah McGrath & Noel Fehily gave her glowing references this time last year. Earmarking this race as made for her with her turn of pace.
          Probably 'put away' as same owner had Laurina, and she was on another level. Suspect DDC will be a solid chance for same connections this season and one I certainly had on my radar too. Her & Salsaretta will be my main 2 for the time being.

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          • #6
            I like a Bhaji but Pakora looks the one for this race for me.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by quevega View Post
              I like a Bhaji but Pakora looks the one for this race for me.
              I couldn't back an early season Mullins mare for this.

              All 3 winners of this race to date haven't started their campaigns for their respective seasons before November. Also, Limini aside there is always one Mullins mare that takes the ante post market favourite yet another one emerges, last year it was Salsaretta, then Laurina took it, the season before it was Airlie Beach and then Let's Dance won the race. I'm not saying this a sure fire way of finding the winner but there are patterns emerging already, obviously the Willie Mullins runner who goes off favourite is the one, we have found that out after 3 runnings of this race already, but from an ante post perspective I can't be having any early season runners for him.

              Currently, Salsaretta, Chante Neige & the Henderson horse, Daphne Du Clos would be my early challengers, but I probably won't back either of the Mullins pair until we see when they come out.

              On a side note, does anyone know who now owns Chante Neige?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                I couldn't back an early season Mullins mare for this.

                All 3 winners of this race to date haven't started their campaigns for their respective seasons before November. Also, Limini aside there is always one Mullins mare that takes the ante post market favourite yet another one emerges, last year it was Salsaretta, then Laurina took it, the season before it was Airlie Beach and then Let's Dance won the race. I'm not saying this a sure fire way of finding the winner but there are patterns emerging already, obviously the Willie Mullins runner who goes off favourite is the one, we have found that out after 3 runnings of this race already, but from an ante post perspective I can't be having any early season runners for him.

                Currently, Salsaretta, Chante Neige & the Henderson horse, Daphne Du Clos would be my early challengers, but I probably won't back either of the Mullins pair until we see when they come out.

                On a side note, does anyone know who now owns Chante Neige?
                I’d agree with that.

                The task is to get on the right Mullins horse immediately after she hacks up first time this season.

                Laurina immediately went short for this about 15 minutes after winning first time last season. If we can get in that 15 minutes slot this year, that’s where the insane value is at. But it’s obviosuky not easy.

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                • #9
                  According to Sky Sports Horseracing C.O.D, the Owner is Mme Mt Dubuc-grassa , .and trained by G. Macaire
                  Maybe hasn't been updated. ??

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                  • #10
                    Sullivan owns Chante Neige.

                    Being held back a year when they had Laurina interests me a little.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by cpfcpatriot View Post
                      Sullivan owns Chante Neige.

                      Being held back a year when they had Laurina interests me a little.
                      Is that a recent purchase. RP has the owner listed differently.

                      and where is scooby for a line on the French form?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                        Is that a recent purchase. RP has the owner listed differently.

                        and where is scooby for a line on the French form?
                        The RP site won’t reflect it until she has an entry. She was purchased the same time as Laurina, Msassa, Saglawy etc

                        Comment


                        • #13


                          I've no idea why she didn't run last season but the two obvious reasons would be either injury or that Willie decided to give her a year out to mature. The Twitter comment that she will jump a fence in time would suggest that she has a decent frame to grow in to and Willie never rushes them.

                          Pakora has an entry on Thursday. She definitely improved the last time and you certainly wouldn't discard her at this stage.

                          Robin De Carlow came 3rd to Mason's Daughter on Friday. An improvement on her first run but she got taken off her feet in the early stages so it's unlikely that she'd be suited by two miles. Mason's Daughter was well backed and has appeared in the betting for March but I'd be slightly surprised if she turned out to be Willie's first choice.

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                          • #14
                            Pakora is declared tomorrow but we're unlikely to learn much as the opposition is very moderate.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by archie View Post
                              https://twitter.com/mufc_fan_saf/sta...011712?lang=en

                              I've no idea why she didn't run last season but the two obvious reasons would be either injury or that Willie decided to give her a year out to mature. The Twitter comment that she will jump a fence in time would suggest that she has a decent frame to grow in to and Willie never rushes them.

                              Pakora has an entry on Thursday. She definitely improved the last time and you certainly wouldn't discard her at this stage.

                              Robin De Carlow came 3rd to Mason's Daughter on Friday. An improvement on her first run but she got taken off her feet in the early stages so it's unlikely that she'd be suited by two miles. Mason's Daughter was well backed and has appeared in the betting for March but I'd be slightly surprised if she turned out to be Willie's first choice.
                              Archie, what do you think about 2 miles for colreevy ? I think she could well be the best of the bunch over hurdles, but not certain on trip.
                              https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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