Champion Hurdle 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

The fact they are considering the 2m hurdle option would suggest to me they can't be thinking about 3m chases just yet which could potentially rule out the RSA, but then again you could also argue that they probably think it doesn't matter what race Samcro ends up in, he wins. I'd be that confident about him.

Personally I don't see him going hurdling, I actually think he'll get beat if he does, and is the one race I am happy to not back him in at this stage. Between the Arkle & JLT for me.

[BigChaang]

I'm thinking along a similar line C.O.D , I think they are prepared to take their time , confident he Will be a staying chaser ,
But don't want to overcook him ., If the Ch. hdl is an option , then I think the Arkle
must also be a consideration too. and obviously if he does go chasing the J.L.T too.
Your'e probably right , the R.s.a may be off their horizons this season.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm thinking along a similar line C.O.D , I think they are prepared to take their time , confident he Will be a staying chaser ,
But don't want to overcook him ., If the Ch. hdl is an option , then I think the Arkle
must also be a consideration too. and obviously if he does go chasing the J.L.T too.
Your'e probably right , the R.s.a may be off their horizons this season.

I'm also thinking that Giggs have Cracking Smart, Champagne Classic, Delta Work & Blow By Blow, plus others, to fire at the Novice chase scene this season, that's already one hell of a battalion, before you add Samcro into the mix. I think it's clear to see, Samcro does not need a trip to win, he just wins, bar a fall, wherever he goes.

Looking at the above horses I have changed my mind (over night) about the potential of Samcro now heading to the CH

[Folski]

I'm also thinking that Giggs have Cracking Smart, Champagne Classic, Delta Work & Blow By Blow, plus others, to fire at the Novice chase scene this season, that's already one hell of a battalion, before you add Samcro into the mix. I think it's clear to see, Samcro does not need a trip to win, he just wins, bar a fall, wherever he goes.

Looking at the above horses I have changed my mind (over night) about the potential of Samcro now heading to the CH

You are forgetting grade 1 winner Dortmund Park who has won over 2m6f. Farclas also a grade 1 winner but he may stay over hurdles as only a 5 year old (by the festival next year). Mengli Kahn also available for 2m chases.

Some army to go to war with.

[billymag]

I also wonder if the patient approach adopted by Footpad (different owners and trainer) has encouraged them about the possible benefits of a CH education, I realise they will be different ages but Footpad seems to of been campaigned brilliantly.

[ComplyOrDie]

I also wonder if the patient approach adopted by Footpad (different owners and trainer) has encouraged them about the possible benefits of a CH education, I realise they will be different ages but Footpad seems to of been campaigned brilliantly.

Maybe deploying the same tactics with Melon this coming season too?

[thistlecracker]

Ruby comes out and says he thinks they should go over fences this year, mentioning it would be harder to then go over fences after another year of hurdles

[Kevloaf]

I'd MUCH prefer to see a horse go Arkle, Champion Chase than win a Champion Hurdle!

Look at Altior! Superstar of the game!

Look at Buveur D'air, a two time Champion Hurdler and people are falling over themselves to get him beat with a novice. If winning a CH is so special, then Buveur D'air is the most under-apreciated horse in the last ten years

[SeanRock]

I'd MUCH prefer to see a horse go Arkle, Champion Chase than win a Champion Hurdle!

Look at Altior! Superstar of the game!

Look at Buveur D'air, a two time Champion Hurdler and people are falling over themselves to get him beat with a novice. If winning a CH is so special, then Buveur D'air is the most under-apreciated horse in the last ten years

I agree Kev! Despite connections sounding like the Champion Hurdle is the preference I still think he'll go chasing! I'd hazard a guess he's more likely to go the 2m/2M 5 route rather than the 3m. He's hoping anyway it would make me even more confident over Topofthegame's chances in the RSA.

[BigChaang]

Ruby walsh think's Samcro should go Chasing , on the R.P. site today .

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd MUCH prefer to see a horse go Arkle, Champion Chase than win a Champion Hurdle!

Look at Altior! Superstar of the game!

Look at Buveur D'air, a two time Champion Hurdler and people are falling over themselves to get him beat with a novice. If winning a CH is so special, then Buveur D'air is the most under-apreciated horse in the last ten years

Faugheen is a superstar and had never jumped a fence under rules. I think BD is underrated/underappreciated due to the way NJH has campaigned him. I hope they take him to the Dublin Racing Festival this season instead of taking in that awful race at Sandown.

[Toffees]

Didn't think id be on here till at least Christmas but Samcro brought me here a few months earlier than expected

I was firmly in the JLT camp and would have laughed off anyone trying to persuade me to back him for the Champion Hurdle. But Gordon/Giggi would have a right shot at all the Novice Chases with the likes of Cracking Smart, Champagne Classic, Blow By Blow, Delta Work, Mengli Khan, Dortmund Park.....any more? Even the likes of The Storeyteller would have to come into conversation about targets. Gordon wants to win everything at the Festival And maybe Im falling for the annual early season antepost hype but what do we think the current market would be priced as if the Champion Hurdle was a confirmed target for Samcro??

Id personally respect a current Champ and price it 7/2 joint fav, probably Samcro fav if that fall never happened but it did. So with the current 7/1 available if people can get hands on a 365 account, is the 7/1 worth a bet? Bare in mind if he does start a Novice Chase campaign, this target mindfuck will probably go on until January at the very least, so a cash out would be available.

[ComplyOrDie]

Id personally respect a current Champ and price it 7/2 joint fav, probably Samcro fav if that fall never happened but it did. So with the current 7/1 available if people can get hands on a 365 account, is the 7/1 worth a bet? Bare in mind if he does start a Novice Chase campaign, this target mindfuck will probably go on until January at the very least, so a cash out would be available.

Haha, this had crossed my mind, to back him in the CH, Arkle & JLT, then cash out, most likely for profit on all 3, when 365 start offering their ridiculous cash outs again, and make profit that way, if only it was that straight forward!

It's as hard as Mullins bingo to guess where he will end up, fingers crossed he just makes it to the festival first and foremost, as with all the horses. I thought I was pretty comfortable thinking chasing, as many were I imagine, but now I am not so sure!

[archie]

If you feel you have to back Samcro 6 months ahead of any race you should decide what price he would start if he got there and apply risk factors of fitness and the choice of race.

This far ahead, I don't think that any horse should be shorter than 1/2 to be fully fit and firing.

The received wisdom is that Samcro is 50:50 for hurdles or chases. Applying a little subjective thought to chase target, you can make the case for a percentage likelihood per race of:
50 Champion Hurdle = 1/1
10 Arkle = 9/1
30 JLT = 2.3/1
10 RSA = 9/1

Do a treble of the likely SP if it runs (your call), the chance of turning up (1/2) and the likelihood of running (as above). That will give you a guide to what price you might consider value at this moment. You cannot guarantee that bet365 will repeat their cash-out offer this season.

[ComplyOrDie]

If you feel you have to back Samcro 6 months ahead of any race you should decide what price he would start if he got there and apply risk factors of fitness and the choice of race.

This far ahead, I don't think that any horse should be shorter than 1/2 to be fully fit and firing.

The received wisdom is that Samcro is 50:50 for hurdles or chases. Applying a little subjective thought to chase target, you can make the case for a percentage likelihood per race of:
50 Champion Hurdle = 1/1
10 Arkle = 9/1
30 JLT = 2.3/1
10 RSA = 9/1

Do a treble of the likely SP if it runs (your call), the chance of turning up (1/2) and the likelihood of running (as above). That will give you a guide to what price you might consider value at this moment. You cannot guarantee that bet365 will repeat their cash-out offer this season.

Agree, and that's why I put "if only it was that straight forward", we know full well it is never that simple I actually prefer the 5/2 'Any Race' Coral have on offer, can use this in Multiple bets too.

The only race he doesn't go off shorter than 5/2 IMO, will be the Champion Hurdle, should he make it and go that route.