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Champion Hurdle 2019

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I just realised it was a year ago to the day I backed Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle at 4/1 - 12 months on he's available at 7/2

    I am not really tempted though this time. It must be the vulnerability he showed last season in the CH, despite getting the job done. When backing him last year I didn't think anything could get near him... now I know that at least one of them can... and even though I'd back him to beat Melon in a match every time, he isn't one I want to start building up a large single on.
    I absolute agree with that Kev.

    That vulnerability (despite him winning) in last years renewal makes me have a strong feeling something will improve past him this year. His prep of beating everything on the bridle easily in small fields surely couldn’t have helped him with the likely war of a CH to come though.

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    • #17
      I don't think NJH will be giving Buveur D'air his final prep in the contenders hurdle at Sandown next season. It'll be much more likely that he turns up at the Dublin racing festival imo.

      He looked undercooked in the Champion Hurdle and I doubt they'll be making the same mistake again. He's a solid favourite and should be hitting his peak this season.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
        I don't think NJH will be giving Buveur D'air his final prep in the contenders hurdle at Sandown next season. It'll be much more likely that he turns up at the Dublin racing festival imo.

        He looked undercooked in the Champion Hurdle and I doubt they'll be making the same mistake again. He's a solid favourite and should be hitting his peak this season.
        Totally agree with you there Faugheen , May not just be Buveur D'air either . I can see the Dublin Festival being a stepping
        stone to the Festival for a few more in the future.

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        • #19
          Enjoyed the read very much .keep up the good work

          Comment


          • #20
            Great write up Native River. Very similar feelings to myself at this stage as well.

            I posted my early thoughts for 2019 in April (here: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...le-2018/page92) and it (unsurprisingly) is still pretty much the same viewpoint now.

            Buveur D'Air unfortunately didn't run at Aintree in the end but the plus side is that if he had of run and won/ran well, the 7/2 may no longer be available. I'd agree with a few posts above in that i'd expect him to run at the Dublin Festival this season. JP McManus was a huge supporter of the festival and though I wouldn't expect him to be able to force the target on a trainer like Henderson, Henderson made it clear he struggled to get Buveur D'Air ready and fit throughout the season and particularly going into the race. It's the only proper race he can take in that side of Christmas

            Buveur D'Air takes an awful lot of work, but he did work this morning. He has not really had a race yet (this season) and he didn't have a race at Sandown.
            Add in the fact that despite him pulling up at Christmas, Faugheen would have still been a horse they wouldn't have wanted to face before Cheltenham. This year there looks to be no big Irish star that'll be taking in the Irish trials (imo Samco will definitely be going chasing)

            In terms of where to look for with 2019 in mind...

            Marty973 had a great post in the Arkle thread on where the horses ran in at the festival the year prior. It obviously doesn't necessarily dictate what will happen or have a gauge on what will happen in this race in 2019 but it was a great little insight and made me do similar in this race:

            Over the last 5 Champion Hurdles and (2018 - 2014) : 51 Runners

            Bypassed/Injured = 20 runners (39.2%) = finished 34689890P2678967578 = 0% win / 10% place
            Champion Hurdle = 9 runners (17.6%) = finished 172543454 = 11% win / 33% place
            Supreme = 7 runners (13.7%) = finished 2513812 = 29% win / 40% place
            Triumph = 7 runners (13.7%) = finished P4650PF = 0% win / 0% place
            Neptune = 4 runners (7.8%) = finished 7313 = 25% win / 75% place

            County Hurdle = 1 runner (2%) = finished 2nd
            Fred Winter = 1 runner (2%) = finished 6th
            Mares Hurdle = 1 runner (2%) = finished 1st
            JLT = 1 runner (2%) = finished PU

            I was surprised with the amount of horses who bypassed the previous years festival, whether by choice (the vast majority) or injury. At almost 40% of the runners it suggests not to forget about any horses who didn't run at this years festival however when you look at how they fared, they very rarely had any impact on the race with just My Tent Or Yours (2nd in 2016) and Mick Jazz (3rd in 2018) filling the places. No surprise to see the poor finishing places of the 7 Triumph runners and as expected it's really worth just focusing on the previous years Champion Hurdle, Supreme or Neptune

            In April I had Buveur D'Air (prev ran in CH) and If The Cap Fits (injured) as the main interests for me. Since then though there has been a horse who has come into the betting that I hadn't touched on...

            Supasundae - 20/1

            He's only available with SkyBet which may say a lot on where he'll be running next season and it also wouldn't be a typical route for a Champion Hurdle runner having run over 3 miles the year prior (and doesn't bode well on the above!). Annie Power did of course run in the World Hurdle 2 years prior to her win in 2016 but she was an exceptional horse with a Mares allowance so it couldn't really be used as much of a positive for Supasundae. That said a few positives...

            Robbie Power

            After his win at Punchestown Robbie Power said this coming off the horse:

            Maybe we got it wrong and Supasundae should have run in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. I felt going to the third-last Melon was flat to the boards and I was starting to close in on Samcro. We'll never know the answer, but my horse deserved a bit of luck."
            We know Jessica Harrington values his input greatly and he's been a key factor in deciding targets of other horses, in particular in pushing for Sizing John to go up in trip over 3 miles. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he would be pushing more towards a CH bid and not another crack over 3 miles.

            There will also be no Faugheen or single big Irish horse that could make connections want to swerve the race either imo

            Festival Record

            His last 2 festivals have resulted in winning the Coral Cup and coming 2nd in the Stayers (when it could be argued the ground went against him) so there's no doubt whatsoever if he is a 'festival horse'.

            Grade 1 Performer

            His hurdle record in grade 1 company reads 12212327. Though he may not have won many, he has only finished outside of the top 3 once (7th in that Supreme)

            2 Mile record last season

            He won both his runs over 2 miles last season (one being a key CH trial and the other the Irish CH). The Punchestown race may have fallen into his lap slightly after both Samcro and Melon fell and though I would have had at least Samcro beating him, we cannot say for sure. Connections must have been tempted having won in February to reroute the horse down to 2miles but stuck to their original plan. Looking back they must have seen him beating both Melon (2nd at Cheltenham) and Mick Jazz (3rd at Cheltenham) that day and thought they could have at least equaled their efforts.

            To counter those positives I have a few doubts (putting aside the possibility he may go elsewhere)

            Hard Season

            3rd in the Hattons Grace, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle and 1st in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He then ran in all 3 festivals. Whether this could have a knock on effect this year?

            9 Years Old

            9 Year Olds have won the race in the past (Hurricane Fly being the last in 2013) so although it's not a massive barrier, for this race I do tend to lean towards horses who are younger and are more 'up and coming' purely on the fact that as horses get older, they start to lose some of their natural speed.

            Weighing it all up I feel there's probably slightly too many doubts right now to go in at the 20's at 1/5 odds when I do find it hard to see him beating Buveur D'Air but out of all the other horses in that market, at his price of 20/1 he does actually appeal by far the most outside of the fav.

            Thoughts on Supasundae?
            Last edited by jono; 19 July 2018, 09:51 PM.

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            • #21
              You make a very very strong case Jono.

              20s is a big price. The stat about his consistency in Grade 1s is a very big positive for me.

              If I had to have a bet right now, it would be one of If The Cap Fits or Summerville Boy - probably the latter. But Supasundae is now well in my considerations.

              Comment


              • #22
                Fantastic write up Jono, really good stuff, but I'd strongly fancy Summerville Boy @ 20's over Supasundae @ 20's, purely on the basis that I am fairly confident (as you mention) that Supasundae couldn't beat BVD, whereas Summerville Boy to me is a question mark and could reach that level. Having watched the supreme back yesterday I completely underestimated just how impressive that performance was from Summerville Boy. 3 mistakes, 1 of which should have been race ending and he still won. I'd rather take 20's about a horse that has done that at Cheltenham and unexposed in grade 1 2m hurdle company, than Supasundae who is more of a known quantity.

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                • #23
                  His 7th in the Supreme is enough to put me off at 20/1 - despite him showing improved form the older he's gotten. He was way behind BVD still in that race
                  Tracked leaders, hit 5th, ridden after 2 out, soon outpaced, 5th and held when hit last, no extra
                  I don't see him being fast enough over 2 miles, despite the races he won that you highlighted...but I'm sure you wouldn't put any stock in the literal form of beating Faugheen by 2L - as Faugheen wasn't the same Faugheen that'd won a CH. Supasundae is better than Mick Jazz over 2 miles IMO but I also won't be using Mick JAzz's CH run as literal form to bash BVD or Melon with either...
                  and
                  as you touched on, the beating of Wicklow Brave, is fair form, but not CH winning form.

                  I am not saying he COULDN'T win a Champion HUrdle... but he'd definitely need it to be a weak race and something to under perform... so I can see them going for the stayers again on better ground.

                  He may well face BVD in Ireland as he defends his Irish CH crown, and that'll be great, but if all has gone smoothly I would make BVD odds on to beat him, so wouldn't fancy the win part of a 20/1 bet.... and the actual returns for the place at 1/5 aren';t good enough with doubts on the target.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by charlie View Post
                    Fantastic write up Jono, really good stuff, but I'd strongly fancy Summerville Boy @ 20's over Supasundae @ 20's, ...
                    Where can you see 20/1 charlie for Summerville Boy? Best price 16's as far as I can see? (if I can get 20's I will be adding)

                    Personally I'm not reading too much into the Supreme run. It of course does provide some (and actually the only direct) correlation between BVD and Supasundae and over the same course and distance. The way BVD was ridden during the race means you could say he was value for further but I wouldn't have said Supasundae was way behind - 4, hd, 1.25, shd separated the 4 horses so approx 5-6 lengths between the pair. A big distance yes but reflected in the price difference.

                    All and especially BVD have improved but just in isolation of Supasundae and not looking at other horses - Different trainer, jockey and 2 years have passed since where he does look a different horse - notably his jumping has improved considerably so how he handled the 2 miles then, I'd expect better now. That side I do think he fell into the 2 mile division last season only from a lack of competition / merely prep runs rather than a change of stance where connections thought it was his best trip which is always slightly off putting.

                    I guess i'm just looking at the market as it is now, and seeing how it may evolve once targets have been confirmed for some and some of the trials have taken place. Focusing on just the first 9 in the betting right now and 25/1 and shorter i'd expect...

                    English Trials
                    Buveur D'Air 7/2
                    Summerville Boy 16/1

                    Irish Trials
                    Melon 8/1
                    Supasundae 20/1
                    Laurina 14/1??? (or chasing)

                    Samcro 8/1 chasing
                    Min 16/1 chasing
                    Faugheen 25/1 stayers
                    Yorkhill 25/1 who knows?! (and in this form who cares ha!)

                    Putting Laurina to one side right now, i can't see much of a fight in the Irish trials and I could easily see Supasundae turning over Melon in one/more of those trials. Hence the 20/1 being pretty big for me and one that if he goes down the division (which i'm thinking they may well do) will definitely get shorter and into single figures later on.

                    However he's right now probably one of those prices and bets where i'm caught in the middle... He's certainly big enough to get my attention and represents some value but at the same time because i'm taking a risk on the target and the fav more than likely has the beating of him - isn't a big enough price to make me back him

                    ...yet

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      I misread what you wrote Jono, I thought they were both 20's but its my mistake as SB is 16's across the board.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Labaik could be the forgotten horse going into this race next year. If his injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his pace 33/1 seems a nice price about a previous Supreme winner. I’ve seen photos of him back in training at Cullentra recently so he’s being readied for racing anyway.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
                          Labaik could be the forgotten horse going into this race next year. If his injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his pace 33/1 seems a nice price about a previous Supreme winner. I’ve seen photos of him back in training at Cullentra recently so he’s being readied for racing anyway.
                          I thought he was being readied for fences but I can't find any quotes at the moment... things could have changed with the time off the track though...

                          Tough horse to back ante post.... avoiding injury, not knowing if he's the same horse, not sure where he'll go....and even if you nail all of those, he might plant himself at the start

                          33/1 way too big on his actual ability but the price reflects the doubts for sure

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            I thought he was being readied for fences but I can't find any quotes at the moment... things could have changed with the time off the track though...

                            Tough horse to back ante post.... avoiding injury, not knowing if he's the same horse, not sure where he'll go....and even if you nail all of those, he might plant himself at the start

                            33/1 way too big on his actual ability but the price reflects the doubts for sure
                            He’s a bit of a monkey alright Kev but I’d be more worried about him planting at the post in Ireland where there’s not someone down there cracking the long whip to encourage them off (not allowed in Ireland). A prep campaign in England might suit him better. I never seen any mention of fences dont see the point really he never struck me as a natural jumper of a fence and he’s flat bred as far as I know.
                            Last edited by SeanRock; 24 July 2018, 11:04 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
                              He’s a bit of a monkey alright Kev but I’d be more worried about him planting at the post in Ireland where there’s not someone down there cracking a whip to encourage them off (not allowed in Ireland) A prep campaign in England might suit him better. I never seen any mention of fences dont see the point really he never struck me as a natural jumper of a fence and he’s flat bred as far as I know.
                              Yeah absolutely right with the UK starting. The best workhorse in the Elliott yard was the quote from Elliott after the race - and he said they don't know what they'll be doing next. That is all I've found.

                              I'd agree he's much more likely to stay hurdling anyway, certainly one for the shortlist.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                First antepost bet today 1pt ew on IF THE CAP FITS for the Champion hurdle at 50/1, this division looks fairly weak-ish. Hoping he has an injury free season so we can see how good this lad is, he looks to be quick and slick enough to make an impression over 2 miles, and at that price worth taking a punt as i feel he will be the best novice from last year to stay hurdling (assuming Samcro goes chasing)

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