Champion Hurdle 2019

[robith]

I can't believe I'm going to post this, but does any one else not really fancy him for this race?

[ComplyOrDie]

I can't believe I'm going to post this, but does any one else not really fancy him for this race?

Yes, I thought exactly the same, but I held my money tight until the market move came, whether it's the right decision or not (assuming it is this race, after all, nothing confirmed at such an early stage), only time will tell.

[Faugheen_Machine]

IF they choose to go this route they must be happy with the team they have for novice chases, I mean, we've mentioned a load of them already on Fatjockey, so we know they have strength, I guess the Champion Hurdle makes sense on that basis alone.

Also makes me think Melon will go chasing this season, I mean, he just come up short last season, and would now have Samcro to contend with also, I don't think that will happen, could well be wrong though, obviously.

Samcro will only be going hurdling because they think he can win a champion hurdle. The other novice chasers in the stable will not have had an impact on this decision imo. Gigginstown always have a decent number of novice chasers and they just look an average bunch to me, Samcro aside

[ComplyOrDie]

Samcro will only be going hurdling because they think he can win a champion hurdle. The other novice chasers in the stable will not have had an impact on this decision imo. Gigginstown always have a decent number of novice chasers and they just look an average bunch to me, Samcro aside

Brave call that FM. Blow By Blow & Champagne Classic both won the Martin Pipe, that same race Don Poli won, he didn't turn out to be average, having then went on to win the RSA and finish 3rd in a Gold Cup, won by a horse of the same ownership. I believe we only see the best of the Gigginstown runners once they go chasing, and would think of myself a little fool hardy should I think otherwise.

I respect your opinion though, and just wondered why you believe them to be an average bunch at this stage of their careers?

Agree regarding Samcro though, Giggs would decide his route before the others as he is the best they have.

[Istabraq]

Samcro will only be going hurdling because they think he can win a champion hurdle. The other novice chasers in the stable will not have had an impact on this decision imo. Gigginstown always have a decent number of novice chasers and they just look an average bunch to me, Samcro aside

I'll go a step further FM, should the champion hurdle be the route I think they're effectively saying the horse will never jump a fence.
If he wins a champion hurdle then why go chasing ?
And if he fails then he's wasted a year and won't compete an RSA/JLT until he's 8, there's never been an 8yo winner of the JLT and only 2 8yo winners of the RSA in the last 22 years, and given the difficulty 10yo have in winning a Gold Cup he would have just one realistic shot.

All seems a bit strange to me for connections obsessed with staying chases and in particular Gold Cups...

[Scooby91]

I can't believe I'm going to post this, but does any one else not really fancy him for this race?

I couldn't get on, (my own fault deposit limits) straight shoot out between him and buveur dair, id possibly shade samcro with the improvement necessary, but likely. You'd have to mention melon, but id expect samcro to go very short at some point as theres nothing really over there quite upto buveur dairs level to really see him at it. I diddnt think he hosed up against black op (bad jump at the last) and lost in translation wouldn't be getting close to beating buveur dair. So it's very hard to weigh up and almost certain they won't meet until Cheltenham , if they both make it there sound.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It's just a feel I have CoD. When I say average, I mean in terms of what Gigginstown have had in recent seasons.

Blow by Blow got a soft lead in the Main Pipe and took full advantage. His runs at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring doesn't put him at the top of novice hurdle ranks.

Champagne Classic has missed a year and I'm always wary of horses who miss such a long period.

Mengli Khan is ok but not top notch.

They don't have a horse shorter than 20/1 in any of the novice chase markets and I'd say that was about right, they certainly don't have a standout candidate for any of the races.

[ComplyOrDie]

It's just a feel I have CoD. When I say average, I mean in terms of what Gigginstown have had in recent seasons.

Blow by Blow got a soft lead in the Main Pipe and took full advantage. His runs at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring doesn't put him at the top of novice hurdle ranks.

Champagne Classic has missed a year and I'm always wary of horses who miss such a long period.

Mengli Khan is ok but not top notch.

They don't have a horse shorter than 20/1 in any of the novice chase markets and I'd say that was about right, they certainly don't have a standout candidate for any of the races.

Fair points FM.

I've just had a look back for the past 5 seasons festivals and it doesn't seem they are prolific in the Novice Chase department anyway, had the odd one win, Shattered Love this season, Tiger Roll last season and of course Don Poli before that, but aside from them they are not quite successful as I first thought. I do still believe the majority of their horses are better once chasing, but maybe after their novice seasons.

[Marty973]

Obviously a big assumption but if both Samcro and Buveur D’Air go unbeaten before the festival what prices do they go off at?

[Vautour]

I’m rather deflated with this news - really wanted to see him go chasing but hopefully he might do the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double in the years to come - not asking or expecting too much!

[Faugheen_Machine]

GE said no decision has been made yet on ATR earlier. I'm not sure I believe him

[Kevloaf]

I’m rather deflated with this news - really wanted to see him go chasing but hopefully he might do the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double in the years to come - not asking or expecting too much!

I'm going to let the dust settle before I properly react to the news and the prices. I have just spent 20 minutes writing a post but I've deleted it in case I say something I regret

I haven't actually staked any points at all in singles in the CH market yet, my book is completely made up in "Free Bets" (Which is due to the uncertainty around targets so far) and I doubt very much it'll be a race I can make a book in now.... the positive being I have plenty of time to assess the situation and 'pick a side'.

The incredibly pragmatic view is that the there is less that a quarter of a point between them (best prices)
3.77/1 - 2 time Champion Hurdler
4/1 - Ballymore winner

As I said though, I'm going to let the dust settle!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Don't be sitting on the fence Kev. We need a statement to hold you to.

I'm in the Samcro camp. It's a tight call but I just can't see them staying over hurdles unless they believe he'll beat Buveur D'air - and they have to be confident to make that call.

All that said, BD is a bigger winner for me at the moment.

[somer1]

Can see Michael O'Leary mopping up the price for which race Samcro goes for now

[Hurricane fly]

I know BDA is a two time winner but I really don’t rate him.

I don’t believe Melon had some miraculous stone + improvement in order to be able to push him so close. Or if you use Mick Jazz as the the reference point as he seems pretty consistent do I believe a 3.5-4 length beating of him suggests a real animal? Not particularly.

BDAs peak RPR(insure where to find top OR) is 8 pounds below Faugheen and below other champion hurdlers such HF and Binocular and level with Oscar Whisky.

Samcro has 9lbs to find on official ratings, there was a stat in another thread showing that 6year olds in the Arkle OM average improve 15.5lbs. Now that’s a)not an exact science and b)different circumstance but BDA has improved 15lbs since his supreme 3rd so nothing make me think it can’t be replicated

I no doubt lost out on plenty of winnings in March thanks to my view but I’ll be sticking to them this year even more so if Samcro does turn up