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  1. #11
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanRock View Post
    Superb write up NR. I'd be inclined to side with Summerville Boy at this stage i feel he'd have won the supreme by at least 5 lengths had he not blundered two of the last few hurdles. Tom George is also on record saying he'd be more suited to good ground as he has a good action and just needs a good even pace set to be seen at his best which he should get in a CH.

    Plenty of schooling over the small obstacles needed over the summer however.
    I hadn't seen any quotes to that effect - he's only raced once with good in the going and that was on debut for the yard and you can't blame the defeat on that if you take the form literally because he's ended the season about 34 lbs higher according to RPRs.

    How do you feel about Tom George and how accurate/unbiased he is? I can't think of enough examples to have a strong opinion either way but I am intreagued at this.

    Summerville Boys two main negatives would be (Needs Cut in the Ground) and (Can't hurdle very well) ... the latter is easily dealt with and I imagine is being done over the summer - his technique is something I'll be looking at FTO this year.... and therefore isn't a major concern.

    The former, if the trainersz comments CAN be believed, may not be a concern, making his current odds well worth investing in.

    Not going to do anything yet and unfortunately not a good enouigh judge myself of a horses action to watch back the replays and tell hopw ground dependant he is/isn't!

  2. #12
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    NR a very enjoyable read of your thoughts of the Champion Hurdle.

    Buveur has been responsible for delivering many favours to me over the past few years.

    But I am also in the Summerville Boy fan club. I think he has the potential to build on his achievements to date, and the 16/1 represents a nice each way bet.

  3. #13
    Great write up, much appreciated.

    I'm in the same camp as most here, BVD has been there and done it before and the 7/2 at Hills is very fair.
    I'm on several times already, singles and doubles, trebles, likely to win or go very close.

    Melon should go well and improvement to come, likely to stay hurdling I think.

    Summerville Boy needs to brush up him jumping but his Supreme win was in the same time as BVD win last March so the 16s is proper value, I'm on single and a few doubles, trebles.

    These are the three to concentrate on right now.

    Laurina I think will go Mares, it's the Mullins way to win races they can win - which is fair enough and I
    I've been backing her in doubles with footie bets.

    Samcro is off chasing, no doubt (and backed him several times for the Arkle).

  4. #14
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    i think BVD was under cooked at the fes but what melon did on ground he wouldn't have liked was massively impressive. Think it'll be between these two again.

  5. #15
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I just realised it was a year ago to the day I backed Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle at 4/1 - 12 months on he's available at 7/2

    I am not really tempted though this time. It must be the vulnerability he showed last season in the CH, despite getting the job done. When backing him last year I didn't think anything could get near him... now I know that at least one of them can... and even though I'd back him to beat Melon in a match every time, he isn't one I want to start building up a large single on.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I just realised it was a year ago to the day I backed Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle at 4/1 - 12 months on he's available at 7/2

    I am not really tempted though this time. It must be the vulnerability he showed last season in the CH, despite getting the job done. When backing him last year I didn't think anything could get near him... now I know that at least one of them can... and even though I'd back him to beat Melon in a match every time, he isn't one I want to start building up a large single on.
    I absolute agree with that Kev.

    That vulnerability (despite him winning) in last years renewal makes me have a strong feeling something will improve past him this year. His prep of beating everything on the bridle easily in small fields surely couldn’t have helped him with the likely war of a CH to come though.

  7. #17
    I don't think NJH will be giving Buveur D'air his final prep in the contenders hurdle at Sandown next season. It'll be much more likely that he turns up at the Dublin racing festival imo.

    He looked undercooked in the Champion Hurdle and I doubt they'll be making the same mistake again. He's a solid favourite and should be hitting his peak this season.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    I don't think NJH will be giving Buveur D'air his final prep in the contenders hurdle at Sandown next season. It'll be much more likely that he turns up at the Dublin racing festival imo.

    He looked undercooked in the Champion Hurdle and I doubt they'll be making the same mistake again. He's a solid favourite and should be hitting his peak this season.
    Totally agree with you there Faugheen , May not just be Buveur D'air either . I can see the Dublin Festival being a stepping
    stone to the Festival for a few more in the future.

  9. #19
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    Enjoyed the read very much .keep up the good work

  10. #20
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Great write up Native River. Very similar feelings to myself at this stage as well.

    I posted my early thoughts for 2019 in April (here: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...le-2018/page92) and it (unsurprisingly) is still pretty much the same viewpoint now.

    Buveur D'Air unfortunately didn't run at Aintree in the end but the plus side is that if he had of run and won/ran well, the 7/2 may no longer be available. I'd agree with a few posts above in that i'd expect him to run at the Dublin Festival this season. JP McManus was a huge supporter of the festival and though I wouldn't expect him to be able to force the target on a trainer like Henderson, Henderson made it clear he struggled to get Buveur D'Air ready and fit throughout the season and particularly going into the race. It's the only proper race he can take in that side of Christmas

    Buveur D'Air takes an awful lot of work, but he did work this morning. He has not really had a race yet (this season) and he didn't have a race at Sandown.
    Add in the fact that despite him pulling up at Christmas, Faugheen would have still been a horse they wouldn't have wanted to face before Cheltenham. This year there looks to be no big Irish star that'll be taking in the Irish trials (imo Samco will definitely be going chasing)

    In terms of where to look for with 2019 in mind...

    Marty973 had a great post in the Arkle thread on where the horses ran in at the festival the year prior. It obviously doesn't necessarily dictate what will happen or have a gauge on what will happen in this race in 2019 but it was a great little insight and made me do similar in this race:

    Over the last 5 Champion Hurdles and (2018 - 2014) : 51 Runners

    Bypassed/Injured = 20 runners (39.2%) = finished 34689890P2678967578 = 0% win / 10% place
    Champion Hurdle = 9 runners (17.6%) = finished 172543454 = 11% win / 33% place
    Supreme = 7 runners (13.7%) = finished 2513812 = 29% win / 40% place
    Triumph = 7 runners (13.7%) = finished P4650PF = 0% win / 0% place
    Neptune = 4 runners (7.8%) = finished 7313 = 25% win / 75% place

    County Hurdle = 1 runner (2%) = finished 2nd
    Fred Winter = 1 runner (2%) = finished 6th
    Mares Hurdle = 1 runner (2%) = finished 1st
    JLT = 1 runner (2%) = finished PU

    I was surprised with the amount of horses who bypassed the previous years festival, whether by choice (the vast majority) or injury. At almost 40% of the runners it suggests not to forget about any horses who didn't run at this years festival however when you look at how they fared, they very rarely had any impact on the race with just My Tent Or Yours (2nd in 2016) and Mick Jazz (3rd in 2018) filling the places. No surprise to see the poor finishing places of the 7 Triumph runners and as expected it's really worth just focusing on the previous years Champion Hurdle, Supreme or Neptune

    In April I had Buveur D'Air (prev ran in CH) and If The Cap Fits (injured) as the main interests for me. Since then though there has been a horse who has come into the betting that I hadn't touched on...

    Supasundae - 20/1

    He's only available with SkyBet which may say a lot on where he'll be running next season and it also wouldn't be a typical route for a Champion Hurdle runner having run over 3 miles the year prior (and doesn't bode well on the above!). Annie Power did of course run in the World Hurdle 2 years prior to her win in 2016 but she was an exceptional horse with a Mares allowance so it couldn't really be used as much of a positive for Supasundae. That said a few positives...

    Robbie Power

    After his win at Punchestown Robbie Power said this coming off the horse:

    Maybe we got it wrong and Supasundae should have run in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. I felt going to the third-last Melon was flat to the boards and I was starting to close in on Samcro. We'll never know the answer, but my horse deserved a bit of luck."
    We know Jessica Harrington values his input greatly and he's been a key factor in deciding targets of other horses, in particular in pushing for Sizing John to go up in trip over 3 miles. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he would be pushing more towards a CH bid and not another crack over 3 miles.

    There will also be no Faugheen or single big Irish horse that could make connections want to swerve the race either imo

    Festival Record

    His last 2 festivals have resulted in winning the Coral Cup and coming 2nd in the Stayers (when it could be argued the ground went against him) so there's no doubt whatsoever if he is a 'festival horse'.

    Grade 1 Performer

    His hurdle record in grade 1 company reads 12212327. Though he may not have won many, he has only finished outside of the top 3 once (7th in that Supreme)

    2 Mile record last season

    He won both his runs over 2 miles last season (one being a key CH trial and the other the Irish CH). The Punchestown race may have fallen into his lap slightly after both Samcro and Melon fell and though I would have had at least Samcro beating him, we cannot say for sure. Connections must have been tempted having won in February to reroute the horse down to 2miles but stuck to their original plan. Looking back they must have seen him beating both Melon (2nd at Cheltenham) and Mick Jazz (3rd at Cheltenham) that day and thought they could have at least equaled their efforts.

    To counter those positives I have a few doubts (putting aside the possibility he may go elsewhere)

    Hard Season

    3rd in the Hattons Grace, 2nd in the Christmas Hurdle and 1st in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He then ran in all 3 festivals. Whether this could have a knock on effect this year?

    9 Years Old

    9 Year Olds have won the race in the past (Hurricane Fly being the last in 2013) so although it's not a massive barrier, for this race I do tend to lean towards horses who are younger and are more 'up and coming' purely on the fact that as horses get older, they start to lose some of their natural speed.

    Weighing it all up I feel there's probably slightly too many doubts right now to go in at the 20's at 1/5 odds when I do find it hard to see him beating Buveur D'Air but out of all the other horses in that market, at his price of 20/1 he does actually appeal by far the most outside of the fav.

    Thoughts on Supasundae?
    Last edited by jono; 07-19-2018 at 10:51 PM.

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