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  1. #51
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    For the yankee?

    Mares Hurdle
    Benie Des Dieux 4/1

    Won it this year and confirmed the form over the same distance at the Punchestown Festival - looks to have Apple's Jade held to me and I can't see her rocking up anywhere else. Laurina's owners will be aiming higher if staying over hurdles and literally higher if she's going over fences.... and she has the rest of the Mullins Mares covered too...

  2. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    For the yankee?

    Mares Hurdle
    Benie Des Dieux 4/1

    Won it this year and confirmed the form over the same distance at the Punchestown Festival - looks to have Apple's Jade held to me and I can't see her rocking up anywhere else. Laurina's owners will be aiming higher if staying over hurdles and literally higher if she's going over fences.... and she has the rest of the Mullins Mares covered too...
    I was on her at 14s to win any race last year after seeing Mullins gushing about her in a stable tour.

    My fear for her is that Rich Ricci wants her over fences. She’s a brilliant jumper of a fence. Mullins has actually said he’d love to see a Mares chase introduced as she’d be aimed at that all season. That doesn’t bode well for a Mares Hurdle defence.

    I heard a whisper this week that Laurina is going over fences. If that’s true and BDD did stay at hurdling, the Mares Hurdle is at her mercy. So I’m planning to back BDD again in some multiples at 4/1 but won’t be backing her as a single just yet. That can wait until we know where she’s going. As any race is pointless for her as she’d be 10/1 antepost for the Ryanair, the Mares Chase is currently non existent but she’s a fair price for her other target - the Mares Hurdle. So for that reason, anyone backing BDD antepost will surely have to play her for either the Mares Hurdle if they think she will run in that. Or not at all. The any race option is pointless for her.

    I certainly wouldn’t be against her for this yankee that’s for sure.

  3. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Would a bad result in a race really put you off for the next year? I think you should take the positives!

    Burning Ambition was no where near my biggest bet, but I stuck to a 'points' system and am always happy to beat the SP so emphatically in this case too (especially with him trading odds on in running!)

    Whatever you did to beat the SP so well, is worth learning from and trying to do again, but perhaps this year take a more cautious approach and lay off your stake, or lock in a small profit no matter what.... or of course you can let it run for the hell of it... but I wouldn't take it as a negative at all.....certainly wouldn't put me off the race.

    I'd be put off a race if I Was throwing ante post mone4y at it and not getting a runner, or not beating the SP... not beating the SP is where you'd have huge problems

    Iím not against it as such. Iím just against it right now - with 9 months to go.

    Itís so often a race for horses on the decline. Last year I felt like I had to back BA at the double figure price because of how he was the upcoming star and I knew his price would contract for that reason.

    But asides from him, itís a likely field of the same type of horse again. Some may be in a quicker decline than others so getting a grasp of that from a betting proposition is impossible in my view. It just makes it a race with no betting angle for me. Similar to betting antepost on the Sandown Veterans Final to some extent.

    Your point about beating SP is a good one though. I suppose I should take some positive out of that.

    The race to completely ignore antepost at this stage for us all really should be the Supreme thlugh. For everyone that is. Itís a nightmare of a race prior to about February in finding value antepost. Very very tough. Iíve banned myself from playing on the race until it becomes NRNB this year.

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