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Thread: World Cup 2018

  1. #11
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    I've backed Coutinho for top scorer. 80-1 bet365.
    His goalscoring rate is improving all the time and he's scored 10 in 22 (not all starting) for Barcelona, despite not being the main man (not on penalties or free kicks) and also being substituted regularly around the hour mark.
    I think he's likely to play just behind the strikers for Brazil and should be the main playmaker. Of all the attacking midfielders in the big teams capable of going all the way, then he looks most likely to score well.
    If neymar is not fit then he may even get in on the set pieces or penalties.
    The group looks ok and potentially Brazil could score goals in the group.
    Anyhow 80-1 looked big for one of my favourite players.

  2. #12
    Another market I’ve been looking at is the Golden Ball (for best player). This is obviously a lot harder to predict with it being so subjective and voted for by the media and marketers, while it can sometimes go to a name rather than the actual best player in the tournament, as highlighted by Messi winning it last time when being far from the best player in the tournament.

    Anyway, one angle I have identified, and this might just be me being a massive cynic, is that the last four winners (Messi, Forlan, Zidane and Kahn) have all been sponsored by Adidas…one of the key sponsors of the World Cup.

    With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Messi won it again, regardless of performances, but I’m tempted to chuck a few darts at some of the more marketable/bigger name players sponsored by Adidas at longer odds – Pogba (40), Silva (33), Kroos (50), Muller (33), Suarez (33).

  3. #13
    My first bet. Sterling top goalscorer at 100/1.

  4. #14
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    Thomas Müller @ 25/1 (Skybet) stands out by an absolute mile. Won the Golden Boot in 2010 with 5 goals and Silver Boot in 2014 with 5 goals. Since 1966 the average number of goals is 6, and he is one of only three players to have netted at least five goals in his first two World Cup's. He is only 28 (I thought he was early 30's) so in his prime and part of a German team that has the right mix of talent and experience in major tournaments. The one potential negative is Germany's World Cup Group which is far more competitive than others, and historically more of the goals scored to win the golden boot are scored at the group stage. That being said, the 2014 World Cup delivered almost three goals per game on average in the first round, compared to less than two goals per game in South Africa four years before, and I can see a similar trend this time around. Yes, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea are tougher opponents, but I expect Germany to dispatch of all of them and Müller to be banging them in left and right.

  5. #15
    Senior Member MrMcGoldrick's Avatar
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    I know very little about footie so I usually try to give myself an interest in this and have done ok on occasion. I always try to look for something "outside the box", see what I did there. Anyway one small bet I've placed is for Costa Rica to make the quarter finals at 14/1, plus a bet on them winning a group game, which would cover my other bet. Probably a bit mad but you never know, I will pinch some ideas from you guys who have much more knowledge of this than me.

  6. #16
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    Although the winner of the golden ball can be a bit twisted.
    A couple that look big prices
    Nabil Fekir 100-1 Bet365 (could have similar impact as Payet in last euro's)
    Iniesta 40-1 Skybet (if Spain get to the final then both him and Silva will have the commentators and pundits reaching for the lube)

  7. #17
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    For any of the outside top scorer bets you're probably looking at the dead-heat price with several scoring 4. Essentially, Spain look to be in the weakest quarter and, although they tend to share the goals around, 100/1 about David Silva seems a decent price.
    Looking at the top of the betting, Griezmann at 12/1 will certainly give you a run for your money.

    Looking deeper into the markets, if you fancy Griezmann, a decent bet might be do both Brazil to win/Griezmann top scorer and Germany/Griezmann both at 80/1.

  8. #18
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HardyEustace View Post
    Germany or Spain for the winner.

    Cavani for top goalscorer at 25s - The Golden Boot is usually won in the group stages with four of the last six winners (five of seven if you account for joint winners in 1994) scoring at least half their total in the group stages, Uruguay are in a very weak group and should score a decent amount against poor opposition, Cavani top scored in South American qualifying and was top scorer in Ligue 1 this season, so he looks overpriced when compared to some of the bigger names at shorter prices.
    PP are 22/1 - 6 places - Cavani

    Case was so good, I couldn't resist the each way odds.

  9. #19
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by quevega View Post
    Although the winner of the golden ball can be a bit twisted.
    A couple that look big prices
    Nabil Fekir 100-1 Bet365 (could have similar impact as Payet in last euro's)
    Iniesta 40-1 Skybet (if Spain get to the final then both him and Silva will have the commentators and pundits reaching for the lube)
    Iniesta's last tournament, I fancy Spain to win it, so 40/1 about him isn't a bad shout.... UNLESS you believe the Golden Ball always goes to a player in Adidas boots.... and Iniesta is Nike?

  10. #20
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    I’ve been building up bets over the last few months and have gone out on a limb that Peru are undervalued and the same goes for Egypt. With or without Salah.

    I had gone out on a limb with Poland and England too, but I’m a little less sure about Poland now. Belgium haven’t played a decent team for the last 2 years, having spent their friendlies against crap teams! Meanwhile, England played against Germany, Brazil, Spain and France.

    Here’s my list:
    Winner: Spain 6/1, England 16/1

    Top Scorer: Isco 66/1, Gabriel Jesus 16/1, Harry Kane 16/1

    Least Goals: Iran 11/1

    Other:
    * Eric Dier - Most English Booking Points 8/1
    * Harry Kane to be Top England Scorer, England to lose in the quarters and Eric Dier to get most England booking points 50-1
    * Poland/Uruguay to reach 1/4s, Egypt/Peru to reach last 16. 66/1
    * England/Argentina to lose in 1/4s, France to lose semi-final, Portugal to lose in last 16. 125/1
    * Iran, Panama and Saudi Arabia to score 0 goals. 125/1
    * Brazil, France, Germany and Spain to be Semi Finalists. 33/1
    * Croatia, Columbia and Serbia to make the Quarters. 22/1

    Group Bets
    * Uruguay, Spain, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, England, Poland to win their group. 66.71/1
    * Egypt, Portugal, Peru, Croatia, Colombia to be group runners up. 201.62/1
    * Uruguay, Spain, Argentina, England to win their group with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Panama finishing last. 89.44/1
    * Finishing Order treble: URU/EGY/RUS/SAU, SPA/POR/MOR/IRN, POL/COL/SEN/JAP. 261.5/1
    * Uruguay, France, Brazil as Group winners, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Australia, Panama to finish last. 25.09/1
    * Egypt, Uruguay, Spain, Portugal, France, Peru, Argentina, Croatia, Brazil, Serbia, Germany, Mexico, Belgium, England, Colombia and Poland to qualify - 666.51/1 (280.06/1 without Group F)

    I’ll likely add another couple yet too.

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