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What to learn from Cheltenham 2018 (with 2019 in mind)

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  • #16
    Originally posted by archie View Post


    Didn't mean it to sound too abrupt, Isty, so apologies if it sounded like that. To be fair, last year there was a fair amount of whingeing from UK trainers like Nicholls who had previously been able to farm the handicaps so you did have recency on your side.
    Not at all, far better to have debate that challenges views, I'm always on the lookout to learn something.

    We could create a number of new questions in analysing this but I randomly took the Coral Cup and the Pertemps final as two big handicaps, ironically, and not designed to suit my argument, the Irish have won the past three renewals of each but the interesting question is representation.

    Coral Cup:
    2016 26 runners 6 Irish
    2017 25 runners 12 Irish
    2018 26 runners 9 Irish

    Pertemps:
    2016 24 runners 5 Irish
    2017 24 runners 5 Irish
    2018 23 runners 5 Irish

    So no the Irish success, even in years they performed less well, is disproportionate to number of horses.

    No doubt these trends are reversed in the opening day 3m 'cap or the 2m 4f novice handicap chase where UK horses tend to do well and when I have more time I might look at the difference in hurdle 'caps compared to chases.

    Again, and from memory, the Mildmay/Flete is a race the Irish never even contested let alone competed in until recently, yet I'm sure they've won the past 3/4 renewals having.

    So what has changed ?
    Are Irish trainers better than UK trainers, do they have better facilities, are their horses better prepared, are they deliberately run in wrong races, is there a difference in the approach adopted by each Nations handicapper ?
    I don't know the answer to any of those questions but there has to be a reason why there is a disproportionate number of Irish handicap successes compared to percentage of runners.

    No desire to do this to death if there's nothing to be gained but it would be useful to see how others view this....

    Comment


    • #17
      Dodgy stats I'm afraid, Isty. To equate the number of runners with the chance of winning is purely random. The fact is that it's very expensive to transport a horse from Ireland to Cheltenham so most Irish trainers only send horses that have a sporting chance of prize-money. UK trainers are much more likely to have social runners as a jolly for the owners.

      I'd also worry about the particular 'random' sample that you used. While it's true that the Irish won both races in 2016/17/18, the UK triumphed in both races in 2012/13/14/15 so I'd have to question your cut-off point as to any emerging pattern with 3 years being too small a sample to be significant.

      For this year in particular, the abnormally soft going would almost certainly have favoured the Irish. Gordon and Willie were keeping plenty of ammunition back to gain prize-money in Ireland so it would have been prudent to note any of their runners that were quite high in the handicap and, therefore, half decent performers. They were either there to manage the weights for others in the same stable and/or ownership or to take their best chance of getting prize-money.
      Last edited by archie; 17 May 2018, 11:16 AM.

      Comment


      • #18
        I went back three years because I wasn't prepared to spend chunks of life on what is a fairly unending argument with no rights/wrongs or winners/losers.
        And I have no idea why the Pertemps and Coral Cup first came in my head as with just a single winner in the races between them this millennium they are races I would rather forget.

        We'll move on....

        Comment


        • #19
          Thanks for this Kev, excellent read.

          I do a hell of a lot of similar things to yourself and only became successful at the festival when beginning to back multiple horses in races and using NRNB with over 60% of my bets for the week. Been going for 16 years and was pissing in the wind for the first ten years.

          I've now had 6 consecutive profitable years ranging from 40-100% profit (don't keep exact records unfortunately) since adopting this approach. Which is essentially looking to get a profit on each race.

          This year my learning points are as follows.

          Reduce antepost bets (have said this last two years, but not managed it yet) - I only probably stake less than 10% antepost but my stats aren't great and I tend to shy away as I find it difficult (pyschologically) not getting a run. Added to that the NRNB market has always offered up plenty of value for me anyway.

          Use forums for information and other ideas (especially this one). First time I've used this and it was a great help, and made a change from staring at oddschecker and watching stuff on youtube.

          I think I'll use each way NRNB a lot more, I seem to have done it a little sporadically and looking back can't really see why, but I had some very good priced horses chinned, Glenloe 25-1, Rather Be 16-1, Mall Dini 16-1.

          Use specials more- the nicholls one this year was very good (even though it scraped home). Only special i've ever really looked at prior to this year was the prestbury cup which i had my biggest ever bet on a couple of years ago (40pts) when they drew until Any Currency was disqualified weeks after. (blow was only softened as i backed any currency)

          Leave the supreme alone for as long as possible.

          Focus on the handicaps I think can be narrowed down (in the NRNB market), Close Brothers, Pertemps, Ultima, KIm Muir, to lesser extents the plate and fred winter.

          Leave the County and Coral cup in particular until very near the day. The form comes from so many angles in these races it makes it almost impossible, whereas there are reasons I could give for the others being slightly easier puzzles to solve.

          General golden rules I would advise for others (if they don't already)

          Golden rule that everyone should follow until it changes, is apart from one or two races, whenever you look at a race, look at what Mullins has entered, Elliott has entered and Henderson has entered.

          And for anyone that hasn't already got it (novices, for want of a better word) but can organise a reasonable bank roll to be available in January 2019 for the NRNB markets should ensure they have accounts with the following bookmakers.
          Bet365
          Skybet
          Paddypower
          William Hill
          I would say they are the four most likely to continue to offer the earliest markets, and the top 3 generally have the best offers during the week also, without there offers I'm sure my profits would be less.

          And finally, when it's just a 2-4 point bet on a 33-1 shot and your already in front for the week . don't get clever and cash it out, at worst just reduce your stake.
          MOHAAYED.
          Last edited by Quevega; 17 May 2018, 08:21 PM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
            Not at all, far better to have debate that challenges views, I'm always on the lookout to learn something.

            We could create a number of new questions in analysing this but I randomly took the Coral Cup and the Pertemps final as two big handicaps, ironically, and not designed to suit my argument, the Irish have won the past three renewals of each but the interesting question is representation.

            Coral Cup:
            2016 26 runners 6 Irish
            2017 25 runners 12 Irish
            2018 26 runners 9 Irish

            Pertemps:
            2016 24 runners 5 Irish
            2017 24 runners 5 Irish
            2018 23 runners 5 Irish

            So no the Irish success, even in years they performed less well, is disproportionate to number of horses.

            No doubt these trends are reversed in the opening day 3m 'cap or the 2m 4f novice handicap chase where UK horses tend to do well and when I have more time I might look at the difference in hurdle 'caps compared to chases.

            Again, and from memory, the Mildmay/Flete is a race the Irish never even contested let alone competed in until recently, yet I'm sure they've won the past 3/4 renewals having.

            So what has changed ?
            Are Irish trainers better than UK trainers, do they have better facilities, are their horses better prepared, are they deliberately run in wrong races, is there a difference in the approach adopted by each Nations handicapper ?
            I don't know the answer to any of those questions but there has to be a reason why there is a disproportionate number of Irish handicap successes compared to percentage of runners.

            No desire to do this to death if there's nothing to be gained but it would be useful to see how others view this....
            I think your original comment that Archie picked up on (was you just being a bit mardy) in the nicest sense.
            This last post you've made actually provides a basis (for the handicaps) of where to start for next year.
            I.E it looks like you know the score so make sure you don't ignore the obvious clues, and it goes without saying that the whole idea of the handicap means it should be difficult, so a lack of success should not surprise or upset.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
              Great write up Kev and congratulations on another good festival - you have a brilliant record.

              If I was in your boots I'd be increasing my stake to £25 a pt. I made the same change a couple of seasons ago and my profit has increased in line with my increase of stakes.
              Thanks FM. Do you do the same pts for flat and NH - I assume so, but do you stake differently "overall"?

              I've been lucky since 2015 in that I've not once been behind (first bet of 2015 was Ptit Zig at Kempton that won - and never been behind since) but Cheltenham is where I make the majority of my money so I don't want to effectively "wipe out" my bankroll or have any cash flow issues in ante post punting during the season - one of the reasons (I feel) I do well at Cheltenham is I would ALWAYS back a horse whenever I think its too big... I hardly ever miss out because I "couldn't afford" to place the bet... and there is a chance with £25 stake instead of £10 that could happen... .especially if I have a weekend where I miss completely...a £300 loss becomes £750 and that may affect me in the long run

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by quevega View Post
                Thanks for this Kev, excellent read.

                I do a hell of a lot of similar things to yourself and only became successful at the festival when beginning to back multiple horses in races and using NRNB with over 60% of my bets for the week. Been going for 16 years and was pissing in the wind for the first ten years.

                I've now had 6 consecutive profitable years ranging from 40-100% profit (don't keep exact records unfortunately) since adopting this approach. Which is essentially looking to get a profit on each race.

                This year my learning points are as follows.

                Reduce antepost bets (have said this last two years, but not managed it yet) - I only probably stake less than 10% antepost but my stats aren't great and I tend to shy away as I find it difficult (pyschologically) not getting a run. Added to that the NRNB market has always offered up plenty of value for me anyway.

                Use forums for information and other ideas (especially this one). First time I've used this and it was a great help, and made a change from staring at oddschecker and watching stuff on youtube.

                I think I'll use each way NRNB a lot more, I seem to have done it a little sporadically and looking back can't really see why, but I had some very good priced horses chinned, Glenloe 25-1, Rather Be 16-1, Mall Dini 16-1.

                Use specials more- the nicholls one this year was very good (even though it scraped home). Only special i've ever really looked at prior to this year was the prestbury cup which i had my biggest ever bet on a couple of years ago (40pts) when they drew until Any Currency was disqualified weeks after. (blow was only softened as i backed any currency)

                Leave the supreme alone for as long as possible.

                Focus on the handicaps I think can be narrowed down (in the NRNB market), Close Brothers, Pertemps, Ultima, KIm Muir, to lesser extents the plate and fred winter.

                Leave the County and Coral cup in particular until very near the day. The form comes from so many angles in these races it makes it almost impossible, whereas there are reasons I could give for the others being slightly easier puzzles to solve.

                General golden rules I would advise for others (if they don't already)

                Golden rule that everyone should follow until it changes, is apart from one or two races, whenever you look at a race, look at what Mullins has entered, Elliott has entered and Henderson has entered.

                And for anyone that hasn't already got it (novices, for want of a better word) but can organise a reasonable bank roll to be available in January 2019 for the NRNB markets should ensure they have accounts with the following bookmakers.
                Bet365
                Skybet
                Paddypower
                William Hill
                I would say they are the four most likely to continue to offer the earliest markets, and the top 3 generally have the best offers during the week also, without there offers I'm sure my profits would be less.

                And finally, when it's just a 2-4 point bet on a 33-1 shot and your already in front for the week . don't get clever and cash it out, at worst just reduce your stake.
                MOHAAYED.
                Excellent stuff Quevega , and Kev's too , will add my two penneth worth soon. ( but not as detailed and informative as your's.)

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Folski View Post
                  I think my big thing to learn from the last festival and it's something I didn't learn from the year before. Is don't read too much into trainers performances early in the festival. I got it into my head back in 17 after Douvan's injury, Melon being stuffed, both VVM & Limini being beat that Mullins was out of form, and didn't go in heavy on him on the Thursday despite, fancying Yorkhill, UDS & Let's Dance.

                  I did a similar thing this year with Gordon after Apples' Jades flop, his two fancied horses in the Novice handicap were pulled up, he'd a pretty poor Tuesday. It turned me off Samcro and a few more.

                  Probably my biggest mistake though was self doubt as I wasn't having a great week, when I really should have been. For example, I had been really talking up Farclas as the triumph winner before the festival, but having heard he was a maiden, said I would go with Mr Adjudicator instead.
                  I think that is a good rule if you can stick to it... hindsight obviously helps.

                  jono made an interesting point a year or so ago about momentum and positive runs, I agree with that for jockeys and although trainers can "run hot"... it is way too hard to factor that in to any value really in my opinion.

                  Surprised you didn't have a great week to be honest Folski, you certainly highlighted a few ante post big priced selections.

                  Are you a "back-on-the-day" kind of punter? (Obviously with your well thought out ideas and notes leading up to it?)

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    I will definitely try to be more selective this year , had a lot of non runners and horse in the wrong race . Any race market i
                    hear you say !. My holy grail is the big priced multiple , not easy with injured horses and multiple entries .
                    My best bets were early A/p bets and bets the week before and during the festival , so will try to be restrained
                    this Autumn .!. apart from the Obvious trials ,.
                    Agree with you Quvega , leave the supreme as long as possible,. And the handicaps and bumper probably till the
                    festival week. unless N.r.n.b.
                    Anyway , Had a Brilliant week at cheltenham this year . roll on the next./

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      I've been doing some statistical analysis of my book. I had a nightmare in 2017, and my outputs were

                      - Reducing my point stake back down to £5
                      - Focusing on one or two horses in a race, and not rebacking all the time
                      - A greater focus on singles over multiples
                      - Striking early on the ante post market - a big part of my success in the past
                      - Using free bets for multiples
                      - Going back to each way (I went win only in 2017 - each way would have meant I'd have broken even)

                      It mostly seemed to work

                      82.4 point profit on singles (of which a £20 bet on Samcro accounted for 44 of them!)
                      20 point loss on multiples - but here's the rub - due to using free bets for multiples, my average multiple stake was less than 1point, which hugely mitigated the risk

                      Some sickeners in there as well - Apple's Jade and Cause of Causes were the last legs in about 7 multis. Very different if either (or both!) won.

                      More importantly (and maybe it's just winners since I didn't have any till Thursday last year) a stricter approach meant I enjoyed the festival so much more this year. Definitely sticking to this!

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Interesting stuff robith, one thing I wouldn't dismiss is multi's during the week, if you have the choice of bookies you can take advantage of the enhanced place terms and a trixie/yankee where you have 5/6/7 places in several races can pay dividends.
                        But what is crucial is learning year on year, you appear to do that well...

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                          Interesting stuff robith, one thing I wouldn't dismiss is multi's during the week, if you have the choice of bookies you can take advantage of the enhanced place terms and a trixie/yankee where you have 5/6/7 places in several races can pay dividends.
                          But what is crucial is learning year on year, you appear to do that well...
                          Good point Ista, I absolutely love multiples, but I can get carried away - for EG, at least ten points of the multis loss was idiot accas I dropped on Thursday cos I'd missed the Samcro/PP/Altior train. in 2017 I didn't adequately cover Yorkhill, UDS and Let's Dance in singles and was let down by UKWIMH getting turned over is probably the best example. This year I'd have had solid singles on all of them (I only really had Yorkhill).

                          The main thing is, this year loads didn't come off at all, but they didn't cost me any money! But agree you need to be in it to win it

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I guess you guys are specifically talking about the festival, but multiples in general are a bookie's favourite.

                            I try to stay away from them nowadays and focus on mostly singles.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by jack1092 View Post
                              I guess you guys are specifically talking about the festival, but multiples in general are a bookie's favourite.

                              I try to stay away from them nowadays and focus on mostly singles.
                              They are my only real hope of early retirement though Jack.

                              I do agree that most multiples favour the bookmakers given that you are usually multiplying up the over-round. I have it in my head ante post is different though.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by jack1092 View Post
                                I guess you guys are specifically talking about the festival, but multiples in general are a bookie's favourite.

                                I try to stay away from them nowadays and focus on mostly singles.
                                The beauty of using Free Bets on multiples...

                                Comment

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