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  1. #21
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    Great write up Kev and congratulations on another good festival - you have a brilliant record.

    If I was in your boots I'd be increasing my stake to 25 a pt. I made the same change a couple of seasons ago and my profit has increased in line with my increase of stakes.
    Thanks FM. Do you do the same pts for flat and NH - I assume so, but do you stake differently "overall"?

    I've been lucky since 2015 in that I've not once been behind (first bet of 2015 was Ptit Zig at Kempton that won - and never been behind since) but Cheltenham is where I make the majority of my money so I don't want to effectively "wipe out" my bankroll or have any cash flow issues in ante post punting during the season - one of the reasons (I feel) I do well at Cheltenham is I would ALWAYS back a horse whenever I think its too big... I hardly ever miss out because I "couldn't afford" to place the bet... and there is a chance with 25 stake instead of 10 that could happen... .especially if I have a weekend where I miss completely...a 300 loss becomes 750 and that may affect me in the long run

  2. #22
    Senior Member
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    Jan 2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by quevega View Post
    Thanks for this Kev, excellent read.

    I do a hell of a lot of similar things to yourself and only became successful at the festival when beginning to back multiple horses in races and using NRNB with over 60% of my bets for the week. Been going for 16 years and was pissing in the wind for the first ten years.

    I've now had 6 consecutive profitable years ranging from 40-100% profit (don't keep exact records unfortunately) since adopting this approach. Which is essentially looking to get a profit on each race.

    This year my learning points are as follows.

    Reduce antepost bets (have said this last two years, but not managed it yet) - I only probably stake less than 10% antepost but my stats aren't great and I tend to shy away as I find it difficult (pyschologically) not getting a run. Added to that the NRNB market has always offered up plenty of value for me anyway.

    Use forums for information and other ideas (especially this one). First time I've used this and it was a great help, and made a change from staring at oddschecker and watching stuff on youtube.

    I think I'll use each way NRNB a lot more, I seem to have done it a little sporadically and looking back can't really see why, but I had some very good priced horses chinned, Glenloe 25-1, Rather Be 16-1, Mall Dini 16-1.

    Use specials more- the nicholls one this year was very good (even though it scraped home). Only special i've ever really looked at prior to this year was the prestbury cup which i had my biggest ever bet on a couple of years ago (40pts) when they drew until Any Currency was disqualified weeks after. (blow was only softened as i backed any currency)

    Leave the supreme alone for as long as possible.

    Focus on the handicaps I think can be narrowed down (in the NRNB market), Close Brothers, Pertemps, Ultima, KIm Muir, to lesser extents the plate and fred winter.

    Leave the County and Coral cup in particular until very near the day. The form comes from so many angles in these races it makes it almost impossible, whereas there are reasons I could give for the others being slightly easier puzzles to solve.

    General golden rules I would advise for others (if they don't already)

    Golden rule that everyone should follow until it changes, is apart from one or two races, whenever you look at a race, look at what Mullins has entered, Elliott has entered and Henderson has entered.

    And for anyone that hasn't already got it (novices, for want of a better word) but can organise a reasonable bank roll to be available in January 2019 for the NRNB markets should ensure they have accounts with the following bookmakers.
    Bet365
    Skybet
    Paddypower
    William Hill
    I would say they are the four most likely to continue to offer the earliest markets, and the top 3 generally have the best offers during the week also, without there offers I'm sure my profits would be less.

    And finally, when it's just a 2-4 point bet on a 33-1 shot and your already in front for the week . don't get clever and cash it out, at worst just reduce your stake.
    MOHAAYED.
    Excellent stuff Quevega , and Kev's too , will add my two penneth worth soon. ( but not as detailed and informative as your's.)

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