Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

2019 Grand National

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #91
    Originally posted by quevega View Post
    5 of last 10 have carried 11 stone or more.
    It's definitely inching up.
    4 of last years first 5 carried less, but are you sure of your figure quevega, because if yours is correct then my stat can't be, which weakens my argument. I wouldn't personally back anything carrying more than a couple of lbs over that mark, but that's just me.

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
      4 of last years first 5 carried less, but are you sure of your figure quevega, because if yours is correct then my stat can't be, which weakens my argument. I wouldn't personally back anything carrying more than a couple of lbs over that mark, but that's just me.
      Neptune Collonges, Many Clouds, Ballabriggs, Don't Push It, Mon Mome.

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
        4 of last years first 5 carried less, but are you sure of your figure quevega, because if yours is correct then my stat can't be, which weakens my argument. I wouldn't personally back anything carrying more than a couple of lbs over that mark, but that's just me.
        It's all down to who includes the bang on 11 stoners or not, and you didn't. I did.
        I was just trying to point out that these type of comments (like 6 out of 10 etc) can be turned around more often than not or tweaked a little to look like a different trends altogether

        Comment


        • #94
          Well you couldn’t argue with that seasonal debut for Rathvinden

          Comment


          • #95
            Yep couldn't ask for more. The one now that still looks overpriced is Ms Parfois. Maybe shes had another setback.
            Last edited by boopa; 23 February 2019, 06:42 PM.

            Comment


            • #96
              Missed approach OUT

              Comment


              • #97
                THE FOLLOWING 10 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (FR), ALLYSSON MONTERG (FR), AUVERGNAT (FR), BALLYARTHUR (IRE), CALETT MAD (FR), JAROB, MISSED APPROACH (IRE), ROGUE ANGEL (IRE), THE DUTCHMAN (IRE), WESTERNER POINT (IRE)

                SKIPTHECUDDLES (IRE) & LIEUTENANT COLONEL not qualified

                Comment


                • #98
                  Some thoughts:

                  With BDM still in, there are still big weights variables for most contenders in the race. But two stand out at this point regardless as to whether he competes - Tiger Roll (of course) and Abolitionist. Both are intended for the race.

                  ABOLITIONIST - 33/1 ante-post 5 places (1/4), 25/1 NRNB 5 places (1/5)

                  - 10-01 is an appealing weight, with the possible rise not really a worry.
                  - Top two (always within 5L of winner) in 8 of 9 chases at 3m+, and was 3rd (15L to Our Duke, RIP) in the other chase.
                  - Won 2017 Leinster Nat (soft to heavy), 2nd in 2016 Troytown (yielding to soft), are probably two best form pieces.
                  - Has not faced GN fences, but other than slipping up in his second chase, has a 100% completion rate.
                  - Good record in springtime. Probably wants a sound surface, despite handling most ground.
                  - Stamina in pedigree.
                  - Newland bought him for this race last year, until an injury setback. Says he's working well and prep is good for his qualifying chase.
                  - Newland is having a pretty good season: 29% wins (53% making frame) from 173 NH runs (ahead of his 5-year average: 23% & 48%).

                  TIGER ROLL - 12/1 ante-post 5 places (1/4), 11/1 NRNB 5 places (1/5)

                  I'd paraphrase this, but the arguments are so sound I can't do justice in reducing them:

                  Official Rating and Weight:

                  - Since Papillon’s win (2000), when the practice of compressing the handicap (and artificially raising the GN OR for course performers) commenced, 8 of the 12 GN winners to attempt back-to-back victories have made the first 6 home. 2 of them were 2nd. It's not "if" but "when" one will come home in front.

                  - Both runners-up (Hedgehunter in 2006 and Comply or Die in 2009) carried 11lb more absolute weight (11.12 and 11.06 respectively) than when winning the prior year at OR +12 and +15.

                  - Tiger Roll’s OR is +9 on last year and if BDM runs as 11.10 top weight (since BDM’s OR168 will be the highest in a GN since Suny Bay’s OR169, carrying 11.13, in 1999), TR will carry 11.01, only 2lb more absolute weight than last year. Even if BDM doesn’t run, he’d probably carry 11.05, just 6lb higher.

                  - 11.05 is a big weight, especially for a small “rat of a horse”, but there have been 3 GN winners with 11.05+ since 2010 and a rise in the weights will, disadvantage him much less than a number of notable rivals, while still leaving him with a winning stat-profile.

                  Form:

                  - Hedgehunter had been in great form in 05/06 season – 2nd (2.5L) in the 2006 Gold Cup, 22 days prior to his gallant 2nd to Numbersixvalverde at Aintree. But Tiger Roll is only the 2nd GN winner since 2000 to return with another victory under his belt – a surprise but impressive win in a Grade 2 hurdle (said to be only 75% fit and looking like a mare in foal in the paddock). Many Clouds was the other to do so in 2016 but his failure could well, sadly, have reflected physical issues.

                  - Of course, Tiger Roll still has the Cheltenham XC ahead, which he won last year. A safe spin round would be fine for his GN stats but the strength of that run may decide whether he lines up as favourite or not on 6 April. In the meantime, he’s a worthy 12/1 favourite.

                  Now, Tiger Roll likely won't be on the betting slip, as 12/1 as a scaled each-way bet (the preferred method) wouldn't be profitable. Nearer the day this might change, depending on what happens in the interim, of course. There's so much to consider.
                  Last edited by PadstheFish; 20 March 2019, 10:45 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by Tigerroll View Post
                    Missed approach OUT
                    disappointed with that one unfortunately wasn't NRNB, thankfully not too big a hit though!!!

                    Comment


                    • “True Believers” of GN trend-following adhere to an article of faith so strong it was surely inscribed on Moses’ tablets, ………shortly after “Thou Shalt Not Kill” but, naturally, well ahead of “Thou Shalt Not Covet Thy Neighbour’s Wife”.

                      Yet, on 6 April 2019, the unthinkable could happen - yes, you better believe it …… for the first time in 79 years a 7 year-old could win The Grand National.

                      To explain this heresy, a few points about my brand new GN stat-model (feel free to skip or use as a sleep-aid):

                      a) Like its predecessor, it is NOT elimination-style, so doesn’t rule out a runner based solely on 1 offending stat – no matter how robust that stat appears. Rather, it uses a Formula (designed by the fruitcake that is yours truly) to evaluate each runner’s stats (+ and -) against a range of factors to establish an overall Rating for that runner.

                      b) Nowt unique about that but less conventional is that, as before, the Formula is derived from the career-to-date stats not only of GN winners but of the first 6 home and it makes no distinction between a winner and a “near-misser” (<5L). Referencing near-missers has been the key to it anticipating apparent “trend-breakers”, e.g. Mon Mome in 2009 (the first French-bred winner) and Don’t Push It in 2010 with 11.05 (the biggest winning weight for 28 years) and it’s why it rates Tiger Roll, despite +9lb OR, a strong contender to defy a 45 year-old trend and win back-to-back GNs.

                      c) My old model (given its first spin for the 2007 GN and using a database from 1988) had been re-tuned annually after each race to reconcile better- and worse-than expected performances. But until last year, there had never been a complete “outlier” near-missing (Pleasant Company, by just a Head). Time to bow to the inevitable - either my model was knackered or changes to the GN course and distance (after 2012), and to the complexion of a typical field, had materially altered the test that is the GN and, thus, the profile of potential GN winners. Either way, tune-ups no longer cutting it - time for a tearful adieu to Mark I and a rebuild from scratch.

                      d) Ideally, we’d now use a database just from 2013 but a sample of 6 races is too small. We’ll get there eventually but, for the time-being, the new model is based on the 14 GNs from 2005 – when compression of the weights produced the first entire field “in the handicap” for years and which saw the first winner with 11-00+ since 1988 (Hedgehunter). New factors have been unearthed, some jettisoned and the Formula completely rewritten and subjected to back-testing - all 36 winners and <10L since 2005, including Pleasant Company, are now fully reconciled.

                      So, with no little trepidation (and a loud wealth-warning) I’m giving Mark II its first spin, though the 2019 renewal could hardly make for a trickier debut.

                      The Big Question

                      …… is will Bristol De Mai line up or will the weights rise by 4+lbs?

                      If he runs, BDM will be off the (5lb compressed) handicap mark of OR168 – the highest of any GN runner since SunyBay, off (uncompressed) OR169, carried 11.13 in Bobbyjo’s1999 GN. That year, 17 of the 32 runners ran from “out of the handicap” and the first 2 home were 14 and 16lbs “wrong” at the weights. It’s a stark illustration of how markedly the complexion of a GN field has changed in 20 years that it’s unlikely that there will be any runners out of the handicap if BDM runs this year, despite the lower top-weight of 11.10.

                      5lbs well-in is a big incentive to run but it will depend on BDM’s Gold Cup run and recovery, 22 days prior to the GN. So, we still have at least a 2-week wait for a decision that's crucial to my model’s Ratings of several runners.

                      And, of course, there’s also the other usual moving parts: final preps and the going.

                      Current Top Rated Runners

                      However, there are a handful of (definite or probable) runners that have winning stat-profiles irrespective of a weight-rise, the going and (barring catastrophe) their final preps.

                      Abolitionist (backed) and Tiger Roll, both with definite intentions to run, already flagged but there's another that I've decided to add to my betting slip, despite being a probable, rather than 100% definite runner.

                      And so...... the proof, beyond all reasonable doubt, that I’ve finally lost my marbles. To my betting slip, I've added …………….

                      [To be continued ……]

                      Comment


                      • RAMSES DE TEILLEE (ante-post 33/1, 5 places [40/1, 4 places], NRNB 25/1) – probable runner (subject to going)

                        This needs some explanation because, to put it in its unexpurgated context, not only has no 7 y-o won the GN since WWII but none has made the first 5 home and none has finished within 20L of any GN winner for at least 31 years.

                        In 14 GNs from 2005 onwards, a total of 31 runners were 7 y-o. Of these, only 1 made the first 6 home (Big Fella Thanks, 6th in 2009). In other words, 7 y-o representation has been 5.6% of total runners but just 1.2% of those filling the first 6 places. That’s stark under-performance.

                        So, how should we (or even can we) assess the chances of a 7 y-o in the GN? Surely we should just put a line through them all.

                        Well, this is why I believe we shouldn’t do that:
                        • There is logic to why a young horse might underperform in a GN, given the unique atmosphere of the prelims and ensuing test (even Aintree-stalwart and 2016 runner-up The Last Samuri was noticeably unsettled before running poorly in both subsequent GNs, as a 9 and 10 y-o). “Immaturity” probably makes for greater risk of being unsettled and so is a credible reason to apply a “penalty” in a GN algorithm specifically to a 7 y-o. But to eliminate every 7 y-o would imply that, but for their immaturity, this 31-strong phalanx of 7 y-o failures had lined up with stat-profiles proportionately representative of those of any other age group.
                        • Back-testing my model (with no “age penalty”) shows that’s patently not the case. Of these 31:


                        - Only 1 had a winning stat-profile - Double Honour (2005). Actually, he ran conspicuously well for a long way (prominent from the off and 2nd when unseating at the 21st fence).

                        - 4 others had stat-ratings consistent with minor place potential (10~30L behind the winner). Of these, 2 broadly ran to expectations: BFT 6th (23L) in 2009 and Cause of Causes 8th (27L) in 2015. The other 2 (Tricky Trickster 2010 and Baie Des Iles 2018) still seemingly had the chance to do so before being badly hampered and put out of the race (20th and 23rd fences respectively).
                        • So, 3% of 7 y-o runners from 2005 had a winning stat-profile (vs. typically c. 10% of a GN field), 0% had strong place potential (vs typically c. 10%) and 13% had a 10~30L stat-profile (typically 30~40% of a GN field). Put the other way around: 84% of 7 y-o runners from 2005, irrespective of their age, had zero chance of figuring, according to their stats (vs 40~50% of a typical field).
                        • While 7 y-os have certainly under-performed in terms of their representation it’s far from proven that they’ve materially underperformed in terms of their actual potential, stats-wise.


                        An age (immaturity) penalty is probably appropriate for a stat-model and, though it’s a ludicrously tiny sample, the fact that both BFT and Cause of Causes had unimpeded runs and were about 8~15L behind “par” for their (unpenalised) stat-ratings, gives me a crude steer to the degree of penalty to apply to a 7 y-o in my model.

                        So, to business: what’s so compelling about RAMSES DE TEILLEE?

                        Put simply, despite applying this age penalty, he has by far the strongest GN stat-profile of any 7 y-o runner for at least 14 years (my old model says at least 31 years) and a winning one on any surface to boot:
                        • Last run, close 2nd with 11.05 in the 29f GN Trial at Haydock on GS - significantly, just 10 secs slower than standard, dispelling fears that RDT needs a soft surface (or the undulations of Chepstow) to be effective. When last run on decent ground, the first 2 home in the 2017 GNT (Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion) came in 6th and 4th at Aintree. Neither stayed the GN trip but, unlike either of them, RDT ticks a stiffer stamina box.
                        • Close 2nd with 11.01 to Elegant Escape in December’s Welsh GN on Soft (5lbs pull at the weights vs EE for the GN). The correlation of strong runs in Welsh and Aintree GNs is long-established and (especially with those lumping 11.00+ at Chepstow) still evident post-2012 GN race and course changes:


                        - Cappa Bleu (3rd at Chepstow with 11.03) = 2nd in 2013 GN with 10.11

                        - Teaforthree (2nd with 11.03) = 3rd in 2013 (same season) with 11.03

                        - Monbeg Dude (winner and 9L 4th with 11.09) = 3rd in 2015 (same season) with 10.07
                        • Carries just 10.05 at Aintree if BDM runs (a 4lb weight-rise won’t materially damage his rating) off OR149 - 5lbs “well-in” after his fine Haydock run, which also notched a career-high RPR158.
                        • 56% win and near-miss record in 9 chases at 3m+ (including those at 23.5f)
                        • Yet to face the GN fences but 100% completion (1st or 2nd in 70%) in 10 chases.
                        • 4 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior - fine
                        • Will he line up? Now 41st in the list effectively guarantees the opportunity and, despite original plans to wait until 2020, David Pipe’s most recent comments (“it will be hard to not go there as long as there is enough cut in the ground”) and no other entries suggest he’s Aintree-bound, assuming weather or watering keeps it no quicker than GS.


                        Caveat emptor, of course.

                        Comment


                        • Interesting Pads

                          Comment


                          • Afternoon all.

                            A quick update on the first 2 days racing ahead at The Festival as it may affect the model's stat-ratings. Those declared to run that could meaningfully boost their ratings are:

                            Ultima Handicap (Tuesday):
                            • Vintage Clouds (win or near miss needed – GN 25/1, Ultima 25/1) [first run after wind op]
                            • Singlefarmpayment (win or near-miss needed – GN 50/1, Ultima 16/1)
                            • Royal Vacation (win or near-miss needed – GN 40/1, Ultima 33/1)
                            • *Noble Endeavor (win or near-miss needed - GN 50/1, Ultima 20/1)


                            X-Country (Wednesday):
                            • Ultragold (win or near-miss needed but would turbo-charge GN rating – GN 40/1, XC 10/1)
                            • *Bless The Wings (competitive run needed – GN 100/1, XC 33/1)


                            (*GN rating potentially significantly impaired if weights rise)

                            However, also declared for Tuesday’s Ultima is another GN entry that I've been hoping wouldn't run until the bookies offer 5+ places and ¼ odds with NRNB (alas still ante-post for those e/w terms, though a cash-out facility can come in handy).

                            He needs only a safe spin round to confirm his existing winning GN stat-rating (a rating that’s also resilient to a possible weight-rise and the going). Though a 20/1 shot for the Ultima, rain-softened ground will suit him and I don’t want to risk a really strong show and his GN price collapsing. So, I’ve taken the 25/1 e/w (5 places ¼, ante-post) for the GN.

                            Thus, alongside Abolitionist (50/1) and Ramses De Teillee (33/1), on my GN betting slip is now:

                            GENERAL PRINCIPLE (25/1)
                            • Stamina his forte (evident in breeding and chase form), making the frame in all 3 attempts at 28f+, all highly competitive and on a range of surfaces:


                            - 5th (17.5L) in Our Duke’s 2017 Irish GN (OR140) on Gd/Y

                            - Won Irish GN last year (OR139) on desperate ground (Folsom Blue would probably have won if not hampered at the last but GP would still have been a close 2nd)

                            - 3rd (5L) in the recent Irish GN Trial at Punchestown off OR142 on Gd/Y (his last outing, notably achieving a career-high RPR149)
                            • Penultimate run was a creditable 5th in January’s quality renewal of the Thyestes - moving into contention nicely until unable to match the finishing burst of classier rivals.
                            • Set to carry just 10-00 in the GN (in the handicap) or 10-04 at (probable) worst. OR144, up 2lbs for Punchestown but that’s no issue over the extra 6f of the GN, for which he now has a decent chance of making the cut (58~62 - though that may ultimately lie in his trainers’ hands)
                            • Best hurdle and chase form in April (made-frame in 83% [5 of 6 runs and in all 4 chases] – 44% at other times of the season) - the Irish GN trip twice played to his strength of course but 2 other April chase wins were over 20f and 24f, albeit on heavy and soft.
                            • Yet to face the GN fences but 1 F (as a Beginner) in 18 chases, otherwise 100% completion.
                            • A safe spin round on Tuesday would suffice for his GN stats, making 5 runs this season, the last 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
                            • One of Elliott’s legion of entries (Gigginstown) but said to be Aintree-targeted.


                            Watching the others very closely this week and may well take a tactical (cash out-able) position on one or two.

                            Comment


                            • I’ve backed General Principle already, but Rathvindens debut win impressed me so much I’m switching #1 and will be piling in on him

                              Comment


                              • Excellent post.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X