Page 19 of 19 FirstFirst ... 9171819
Results 181 to 189 of 189
  1. #181
    5lb Claimer
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    67
    Quote Originally Posted by PadstheFish View Post
    So we've had the second forfeit stage published. BDM still in, but if Aintree is the target, he could still go for the Bowl - IMO probably the better choice, with Anibale Fly at a big weights advantage.

    BDM's possible participation remains a significant variable for GN weights and ratings, but time and tide wait for no man. So, with essentially all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - it's unlikely the cut will come below that.

    They're ranked below in order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my previous model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with "winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune) were one notch below this range, normally considered as having "Strong Place Potential".

    An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. As much as we'd like it to whittle the field down to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it - as it must if it's to be of any value over time.

    As will be seen, unfortunately, this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.

    In the past it’s identified between 3 and 6 horses with winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home.

    However, with that many on the shortlist, sadly, instinct had to come into play, and I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out where possible on 3rd placed Bless The Wings.

    The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company was the first statistical outlier in the model to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.

    I'd hoped the new model might deliver a shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for my picking and choosing, but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most competitive GNs for years:

    • BDM would be the highest (uncompressed) Officially Rated GN runner (172) since Master Oats in 1997.
    • Even with 4lbs OR compression for the race, his presence would keep the absolute weights at levels that elevate the stat-ratings of several from "strong place potential" to "winning" calibre, depending on the going.
    • The model's two highest-rated runners would have “top-quartile” ratings (i.e. in the top 25% of the ratings-range of former winners and near-missers since 2005).


    That said, in 2012, the old model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since 1988. Desperately sadly, that runner (Synchronised) never came home.

    While the model wasn't necessarily wrong, nor is it a crystal ball. All it does is hopefully improve returns and the bottom line over time, and despite the occasional mis-translation when putting fancies on the betting slip, it's worked well down the years.

    ---------------------------------------

    So, to business.

    ---------------------------------------

    With two key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the context of four alternative scenarios. Despite having two stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN, but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies!).

    Odds are current best price for NRNB 5 places (1/4 or 1/5 odds) - some of these may not line up of course:

    A. BDM scratched / GS or better:

    #1 Ramses De Teillee (33/1), Tiger Roll (9/2)

    #3 General Principle (33/1), Anibale Fly (12/1), Abolitionist (33/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1)


    B. BDM scratched / Softer than GS:

    #1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

    #3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly

    #6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)


    C. BDM runs / GS or better:

    #1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

    #3 Anibale Fly

    #4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant Company


    D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:

    #1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

    #3 Anibale Fly

    #4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden

    #8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue


    A notch below the aforementioned horses in the ratings are those who could run a huge race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions), but are considered Place Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini (25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).


    How does this, therefore, translate to the betting slip? (TBC)
    Padsthefish historically how have you done with this model
    In previous grand nationals mate?

  2. #182
    Came on here for a quick read before selecting a few antepost pokes and blooming glad I did, what a read that is pads! Would Ms Parfois having run so recently put you off her?

  3. #183
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Nantwich, Cheshire
    Posts
    10,659
    Quote Originally Posted by Seven Towers View Post
    I wish I knew Billy! His damsire Broken Hearted was the sire of Numbersixvlverde but the thing with N6VV was that he stayed because of the masses of stamina influences on his own damside. He had a triple winning Grand National stallion VUlGAN in his pedigree. The other significant horse that had Broken Hearted as the damsire was/is old slowboat and Welsh National winner Emperors Choice but again he had a GN winning stallion and Eider Chase winning stallion BUCKSKIN in him plus Random Shot who was in my namesake's pedigree Seven Towers.

    The pedigree of Jury Duty doesn't scream Grand National winner to me but neither did Ballabriggs'. Quite interesting that the last three winners have been by 120+ rated top class Flat performers. The shape of things to come possibly.
    Welcome to the forum.

    Interesting angles.

    Which other horses do scream national winner on pedigree (aside from the ones you've highlighted).

    It's so rarely a tool I use to narrow a field.

  4. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by Tigerroll View Post
    Padsthefish historically how have you done with this model
    In previous grand nationals mate?
    This is the first spin of the current one - modifications made post-2012 necessitated a revamp - but the prior incarnation was as follows:

    2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum)
    2007: 2nd (0.75L) (McKelvey)
    2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings)
    2009: winner (Mon Mome)
    2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud) & 6th (Snowy Morning)
    2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) & 4th (State Of Play)
    2012: 2nd (Nose - aghh!!) (Sunnyhillboy)
    2013: 2nd (Cappa Bleu), 3rd (Teaforthree) & 6th (Swing Bill)
    2014: 6th (Chance Du Roy) (screwed up my data input for the winner, Pineau De Re, which should have put him on my slip – 4th best rated)
    2015: 3rd (Monbeg Dude)
    2016: 3rd (Vics Canvas)
    2017: 2nd (Cause Of Causes) & 3rd (Saint Are)
    2018: 5th (Milansbar), though both Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings were in consideration

    Fair to say a winner is due!

  5. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
    Came on here for a quick read before selecting a few antepost pokes and blooming glad I did, what a read that is pads! Would Ms Parfois having run so recently put you off her?
    No. From post on P15:

    It may be said that the GN comes too soon, just 21 days after such a tough race, but her sequence of runs last year read 3111222 (the last six on Soft) and came at an average 24-day gap, with just five days between 2 of the wins. She tends to take her races well but, in any event, has had a much lighter campaign this season – 2 runs. First of the season was a disappointing 6th in the Hennessy in December, after noticeably sweating up prior to the race, but she did likewise on debut the previous season. Handled the hullabaloo of Cheltenham and the GN meeting last season well enough, and won't be "fresh".

  6. #186
    Hi Kev. I certainly wasn't surprised by Pleasant Company last year because he is from a Grand National winning family. He is closely related to Comply Or Die through the mare Lady Flame.

    Go Conquer is related to the 1986 Irish National winner Insure through the mare Audacity. However, I won't be backing him because you are backing him to stay in front for 4 1/4 miles. Once he has been passed I've never then seen him go back past a horse.

    Lake View Lad does interest me a lot. Generally speaking, when you see the combination of a horse that is by Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare they turn out pretty good. Dual placer and Becher winner Oscar Time was one. But you have also had the likes of Black Jack Ketchum, At Fishers Cross, Kilbricken Storm etc. Lake View Lad is actually from the family of a Triumph Hurdle winner (!) but that's ok as a Triumph Hurdle winner won the National last year!

    I will get on to the Frenchies later. There are three or four incredibly important stamina influences in French racing.

  7. #187
    This forum just gets better. Thanks for sharing guys.

  8. #188
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    294
    ....no intention of adding to my portfolio, just hope 3 or 4 turn up;

    Rathvinden @ 40-1 (backed 30.09): 33-1 (backed 14.02)
    Ms Parfois @ 45-1 (backed 30.09)
    Rock the Kasbah @ 35-1 (05.03)
    PairofBrowneyes @ 40-1 (17.03)
    Noble Endeavor @ 50-1 (20.03)

  9. #189
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Nantwich, Cheshire
    Posts
    10,659
    Quote Originally Posted by PadstheFish View Post
    This is the first spin of the current one - modifications made post-2012 necessitated a revamp - but the prior incarnation was as follows:

    2006: winner (Numbersixvalverde) & 4th (Nil Desperandum)
    2007: 2nd (0.75L) (McKelvey)
    2008: winner (Comply Or Die), 2nd (King Johns Castle) & 4th (Slim Pickings)
    2009: winner (Mon Mome)
    2010: winner (Don’t Push It), 4th (Big Fella Thanks), 5th (Hello Bud) & 6th (Snowy Morning)
    2011: 2nd (Oscar Time) & 4th (State Of Play)
    2012: 2nd (Nose - aghh!!) (Sunnyhillboy)
    2013: 2nd (Cappa Bleu), 3rd (Teaforthree) & 6th (Swing Bill)
    2014: 6th (Chance Du Roy) (screwed up my data input for the winner, Pineau De Re, which should have put him on my slip – 4th best rated)
    2015: 3rd (Monbeg Dude)
    2016: 3rd (Vics Canvas)
    2017: 2nd (Cause Of Causes) & 3rd (Saint Are)
    2018: 5th (Milansbar), though both Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings were in consideration

    Fair to say a winner is due!
    An impressive set of results.

    Is there anything anyone can do to help?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •