May Festival Yankee

[Middle_Of_March]

Hope I’m not stepping on anyone’s toes by starting the ball rolling with this thread.

Some names to throw into the early hat we’ve not included in a yankee yet and who have fairly obvious targets:
Might Bite - Gold Cup @ 13/2
Tiger Roll - Cross Country @ 4/1
Next Destination - RSA @ 12/1
Kalashnikov - Arkle @ 14/1


I would also hope to be able to convince you lads into possiblyf Monalee for the Ryanair but I know that may take a few months yet.

Think Next Destination is an enormous price tbh.

[Kevloaf]

Thinking about Next Destination... I'd like to see a price for Cracking Smart for the RSA.

I fancied him to turn the tables on Next Destination in the Albert Bartlett (neither ended up running).

Not one for the May yankee but interesting all the same.



Slight concern Kalashnikov could be tried over further next year?


Benie Des Dieux for the Mares race? I know Ricci keeps saying he wants to go over fences, but even if she does in the meantime, she'll be going for the Mares race again surely? 4/1 ... nah, not putting that forward but not going to delete it.

Annamix for the Supreme 20/1

[Kevloaf]

Actually, Call Me Lord at 20/1 I think is over priced. His win at the weekend was excellent.

JAcob on the SL podcast said he was looking forward to riding him and I can only assume didn't get the choice and was put on Wholestone....

Wholestone is a good horse, and on a line through him I think CML is able to throw his hat in the ring.

GOing right handed is a concern, although he's not actually tried it yet so hard to knock and he's unexposed and I like that angle every year going in to the stayers hurdle race in particular.

Call Me Lord 20/1 Stayers Hurdle. Certainly fancy him more than Identity Thief now and I like IT too.

[Middle_Of_March]

Thinking about Next Destination... I'd like to see a price for Cracking Smart for the RSA.

I fancied him to turn the tables on Next Destination in the Albert Bartlett (neither ended up running).

Not one for the May yankee but interesting all the same.



Slight concern Kalashnikov could be tried over further next year?


Benie Des Dieux for the Mares race? I know Ricci keeps saying he wants to go over fences, but even if she does in the meantime, she'll be going for the Mares race again surely? 4/1 ... nah, not putting that forward but not going to delete it.

Annamix for the Supreme 20/1

I’d forgotten all about Cracking Smart. I backed him antepost for the Albert Bartlett. Good shout that Kev. I too fancied him to overturn form with ND if they both stepped up in trip. Certainly one to debate.

I looked at mentioning BDD (my best bet for the 2018 Cheltenham at 16s any race) but Willie and Ricci both want her over fences. The former has already mentioned that the possible Mares chase race being introduced would help him as she’d be sent there. Can’t include her at 4/1 for a race that’s a serious doubt. I could perhaps see her as a VVM type super sub role next year with the potential for her in multiple races like the Mares Hurdle, Mares Chase (If it is a race), Ryanair or Champion Hurdle. Many possibilities.

Annamix is clearly well thought of but the supreme is such a hard race antepost, I wouldn’t recommend betting anything at this stage. In fact, I’ll be trying y absolute hardest not to back anything in that antepost for as long as my willpower allows me. It’s a nightmare antepost and ITCF shortening to 7/2 this year before getting injured was the proverbial kick in the spuds.

I think Kalashnikov is an Arkle type personally. But it’s so early that it’s hard to know. I could see Samcro in the JLT if he goes chasing and connections of Kalashnikov choosing to swerve him and hence put their horse in the Arkle.

I can’t be the only one that finds themselves having a look almost daily at the Cheltenham markets to see if anything’s happened. Even at this stage.

[Middle_Of_March]

Actually, Call Me Lord at 20/1 I think is over priced. His win at the weekend was excellent.

JAcob on the SL podcast said he was looking forward to riding him and I can only assume didn't get the choice and was put on Wholestone....

Wholestone is a good horse, and on a line through him I think CML is able to throw his hat in the ring.

GOing right handed is a concern, although he's not actually tried it yet so hard to knock and he's unexposed and I like that angle every year going in to the stayers hurdle race in particular.

Call Me Lord 20/1 Stayers Hurdle. Certainly fancy him more than Identity Thief now and I like IT too.

He’s one of those horses that I can’t work out. Whenever I back him he seems to run moderately and the other day I left him alone as I thought he was too short in the market and he hacked up.

He seems quite mentally immature from what I’ve seen though. If he grows up over the summer, he could certainly prove a danger next year in the Stayers. He’s clearly talented.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I've had a bit on Annamix, as you say though Kev it's a difficult race to put a selection into a yankee at this early stage, like him though

[MrMcGoldrick]

Hope I’m not stepping on anyone’s toes by starting the ball rolling with this thread.

Some names to throw into the early hat we’ve not included in a yankee yet and who have fairly obvious targets:
Might Bite - Gold Cup @ 13/2
Tiger Roll - Cross Country @ 4/1
Next Destination - RSA @ 12/1
Kalashnikov - Arkle @ 14/1


I would also hope to be able to convince you lads into possiblyf Monalee for the Ryanair but I know that may take a few months yet.

Think Next Destination is an enormous price tbh.

Liking all those MOM, might put that on anyway, as isty says, you can never have too many festival yankees

[cpfcpatriot]

I would worry about Tiger Roll at 4/1 coming off a Grand National, but happy with Might Bite and potentially Next Destination/Kalashnikov.

I’d be interested in trying to get Laurina into one of these bets, but which race is the issue. Arkle or Champion?

Paloma Blue is another one I’d really like in the Arkle market at 16/1 and Salsaretta as a 2nd season novice in the Mares hurdle as she had some very good vibes earlier on in the season and tired before her fall at Cheltenham.

[Hurricane fly]

I think some of the best value is in horses who missed the fez

Will be interesting to see what cracking Smart is priced up as, Hollowgraphic is available at 25s and upwards for the novice races, Willoughby Court available at 25s for the Ryanair, if the cap fits is only priced up for the CH from what I can see but again is 25/1+

[charlie]

I think some of the best value is in horses who missed the fez

Will be interesting to see what cracking Smart is priced up as, Hollowgraphic is available at 25s and upwards for the novice races, Willoughby Court available at 25s for the Ryanair, if the cap fits is only priced up for the CH from what I can see but again is 25/1+

That's a really good point HF, I agree 100%. Would throw Waiting Patiently into the mix as well.

I think there is a case to be made that in May we do a 'horses who missed the fez' yankee. Some superb prices about for horses that missed the fez for fairly insignificant reasons. Willoughby Court had a minor injury and was 70-30 for a long time. Waiting Patiently was a trainer preference call, and there is no question bookmakers have pushed out very talented british trained horses who missed the fez, against a backdrop of Irish dominance.

[Istabraq]

I agree (HF and Charlie) but although Waiting Patiently has plenty of appeal he is ground dependent and this years soft ground is likely to be an exception, would they risk him on quicker ground ?
I'd say not, so whilst we know he can only realistically target the Ryanair he could well be a horse that Cheltenham never sees or never sees the best of....

[Kevloaf]

I think some of the best value is in horses who missed the fez

Will be interesting to see what cracking Smart is priced up as, Hollowgraphic is available at 25s and upwards for the novice races, Willoughby Court available at 25s for the Ryanair, if the cap fits is only priced up for the CH from what I can see but again is 25/1+

Strongly agree with Willoughby Court at 25/1

So much so I am tempted to back that in a single now.

[archie]

I'd be very careful about backing any horse that missed the Festival because of injury. Let's face it, the price won't change until the horse comes out and proves his fitness so you're just tying up funds for 6 months for no reason.

I'd prefer horses that missed Cheltenham but looked good at Aintree, Fairyhouse or Punchestown. Also, I'd be looking at younger horses who may have more improvement left in them. Willoughby Court, at 7, is pretty much on the cusp age-wise.

That's not knocking the idea of backing the likes of Willoughby Court, it's just the timing. He's exactly the kind of horse that you'd look at in September/October. I realise that this approach limits the candidates for these spring and summer yankees but that's life.

[Kevloaf]

Certainly wouldn't want to tie up and significant funds and certainly agree with the cautious approach based on the injury. It's a good point.

I am really keen on Willoughby Court and the 25/1 did jump out to me because I had him earmarked as the most likely winner of the JLT for a while and thinking about the price he'd be for the Ryanair with a good show (or win) in the JLT is significantly shorter than I think he'd be in the Ryanair.

but you're right, his price will not be going anywhere. I'd suggest until September at the easliest and that'd be stable tours and him being talked up rather than us seeing him retaining ability as that'd be October probably.

As one of the more trigger happy members, if I've managed to hold off on the single, I imagine most can.... but I wouldn't mind having him in a yankee. Whether it would be popular enough a case to convince everyone else when the points archie's raised are very valid remains to be seen... but I might have him in one myself later on in the month if the flat weekends start reaping rewards.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think there's an element of speculation about everything for the fez at the mo. Even those with confirmed targets have lots of potential hazards to overcome in the next ten months, so value is the name of the game for me. If Willoughby Court turns up at the fez in top form he will be more of a 3/1 shot than 25/1, so if we can get 2 or 3 yankees with that kind of value we'll be ecstatic, one will do, but if we don't try we won't get. As the year goes on we will get a clearer idea of what goes where, and with what sort of chance, so I'm all for dreaming big, even if it means coming up with speculative ones then alternating with more realistic ones, come on guys, MrM wants a Porsche