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  1. #1
    Professional Fat Jockey Middle_Of_March's Avatar
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    Jan 2018

    MOMs Racing Preview - Aintree Day 3

    After a disappointing day two, we move on to Grand National day in the hope of finding the winner – like One For Arthur last year. I have to admit to having less confidence than last year about my bet but I still fancy him to run well. I also have a couple of small each way selections for you too. Good luck to everyone who plays and, more importantly, let’s hope all 40 runners make it back safe and sound like they have done in the last few years.

    1:45 - Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
    I backed Louis Vac Pouch at Cheltenham but he ran a stinker. Before the race, I was actually stood next to the stable girl of the horse up until the month before the race and heard how he had bled the first time the new stable girl had ridden him. His poor run that day is certainly ominous as horses who bleed once often bleed again after. For that reason, as good as he has been this season prior to that last run, I will have to oppose him here despite this being a weaker race. Stamp Your Feet has creeped in at the bottom of the weights but is improving and has a chance. Dream Berry looks set for a huge run off 11st 10lb after a good return last time after an absence. If coping with the step up in trip in likely shocking ground, he must go close. The selection, however, is for Tim Vaughan’s DEBECE who has been off the track for a year but ran a cracker to finish third in a grade 1 at this meeting a year ago. He will relish the conditions and, if anywhere near his best, will surely go close. I’ve had to have a play at 10/1 in what looks like a decent handicap to open the curtains on day 3 at Aintree.

    2:25 - Betway Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
    This is a hard one to judge as one or two of the big guns’ ability to go well on the ground has to be taken on trust. Black Op was outstayed up the hill by Friday’s grade 1 winner Santini in his Cheltenham trial before stepping back in trip to chase home the brilliant Samcro at the Festival. He’s clearly a good horse and will cope with conditions. Western Ryder was a good sixth in the Supreme and this step up in trip should suit but he may find one or two have more class. Momella is a battler but was beaten fair and square by ON THE BLIND SIDE (NAP) previously. The latter missed the Ballymore but was touted as England’s best chance of beating Samcro had he not suffered a setback. He needed every yard on his penultimate race (when beating Momella) but looked much better last time when trouncing his field at Sandown. The big unknown is the ground for him but he will almost definitely be the best horse in the long run and looks an exciting prospect for when he is sent chasing.

    3:00 - Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
    The absence of the brilliant Footpad makes this a simple task for PETIT MOUCHOIR. The Arkle third was sent off at a blistering pace that day off the front and cut his own throat up the hill. Without the need to set his own gallop today, this should be far more routine. At 4/7, he’s still too short for me as a single. Instead, I will have him in some multiples. Diego Du Charmil is held by Shantou Rock on their form together but has class on a going day. Lady Buttons is progressive but this is a big jump in class whilst Shantou Rock is a frustrating type. He’s clearly got ability but doesn’t always show a willing attitude when asked for an effort in the closing stages. Saying that, the forecast at 4/1 could be a tempting alternative here. The other two would need to show improvement to threaten in this company.

    3:40 - Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
    A proper tricky staying handicap now as we warm up for the big one in around about an hour and a half. Few are certain to stay but one who surely will is market leader Thomas Patrick who finished quickly to beat a decent field by 8 lengths. Aintree’s long run in will almost certainly suit and it’s hard to see him not going well. Rocklander has looked good this season and will run his standard race off the front. Ibis Du Rheu is a lovely looking horse but the heavy ground here won’t play to his strengths. Doubts surround Oldgrangewood after an explicably poor run last time but he’s capable on his day. One who will love this stamina test is PAPER LANTERN. If over his exploits of 12 days ago when winning at Fairyhouse, I feel he will run a massive race at a nice price.

    4:20 – Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1)
    L’Ami Serge won on Thursday here so surely won’t line up whilst the ground has turned against Lil Rockerfeller. Old Guard and Identity Thief are both vulnerable stepped up to three miles. The Worlds End won at this meeting last year but is inconsistent. Wholestone seems to run best at Cheltenham and is held generally (though he did beat him narrowly last time – third and fifth in the race) by SAM SPINNER. I was against him in the Stayers Hurdle when he was given a poor ride by Joe Colliver. The horse’s biggest strength is his stamina and relentless galloping and yet the race was run too steadily with a sprint finish separating nine with a chance at the last hurdle. He proved before the race that he likes the soft ground and can get back in the winners enclosure here.

    The world’s greatest steeplechase looks as open as ever with five horses at 12/1 joint favourites at the time of writing. Total Recall has been fancied by many for this after a fantastic run earlier this season when winning the Ladbrokes Trophy (The Hennessy). He won a hurdle race after before falling in the Gold Cup. Attempting the National on the back of a fall is not the best preparation but he’s clearly talented and improving steadily. Seeyouatmidnight attempts back to back wins in this race for Scotland whilst Blaklion loves the unique test the Aintree fences bring. Tiger Roll won the Cross-Country last time and is a remarkable horse but is very small for a horse in this race and that would worry me. The gamble of the race is the grey Baie Des Iles from 50/1 a fortnight ago into 14/1. Captain Redbeard is proven on this ground but steps up in trip. Shantou Flyer finished strongly in the Kim Muir and this trip may well prove to his liking. The same can be said of I Just Know who has looked like a different horse when running over three miles and further. My 2018 bet for the race is ANNIBALE FLY who must go close if coping with the weight of 11st 8lb. He finished strongly when third in the Gold Cup after previously falling when travelling strongly in the Irish Gold Cup. That fall was a rare mistake and he is due to go up 9lb in the weights. He’s my winner for the 2018 running of the Grand National in my attempt of back to back winners.
    1 – ANNIBALE FLY @ 12/1
    2 – I Just Know @ 18/1
    3 – Baie Des Iles @ 14/1
    4 – Shantou Flyer @ 28/1
    5 – Raz De Maree @ 25/1
    6 – Milansbar @ 25/1

    Horse by horse:
    1) Thunder And Roses (66/1) – Got in as a reserve. Looks to be past his best after being classy on his day. Jumping frailties latest. My rating out of 10 for his chances: 3
    2) Blaklion (12/1) – Daunting task of top weight. Loves these fences. Didn’t stay well enough last year and tired quickly in his prep. 7
    3) Annibale Fly (12/1) – Classy type. 9lb well in. Finished strongly in Gold Cup. Smoothe traveller. Will cope with the ground. Must go well. 10
    4) The Last Samuri (20/1) – 2nd in 2016. Struggled last year but better this campaign. Bit high in the weights now. Would prefer better ground. 7
    5) Valseur Lido (50/1) – Top class on his day. Struggled this term. Will cope with the ground but it’s hard to see him challenging. 5
    6) Total Recall (12/1) – Improving type. Fell latest which is a big negative. Classy horse who has run well in big handicaps previously. Big run expected. 8
    7) Alpha Des Obeaux (33/1) – Inconsistent. Can perform well on a good day. Tendency to break blood vessels is a worry. Not without a chance. 6
    8) Perfect Candidate (50/1) – Went well for a long way last year but seemingly didn’t stay. Hard to see how he will cope this year. 5
    9) Shantou Flyer (28/1) – Been in good form this year. Didn’t threaten last year but has looked a better stayer since. Each way claims. 8
    10) Tenor Nivernais (100/1) – Looks past his best. Beaten into 17th last year. Shown nothing since. Oppose. 3
    11) Carlingford Lough (50/1) – Top class on his best form. Two time Irish Gold Cup winner but looked a shadow of that this season. Hard to fancy. 4
    12) Delusionsofgrandeur (80/1) – Consistent type. Should finish. May lack the class of plenty and could be a shade high in the weights. 6
    13) Tiger Roll (12/1) – Brilliant in the cross country. Stout stayer. Generally a good jumper. Perhaps best at Cheltenham though. Small horse which is a worry. Contender. 7
    14) Regal Encore (33/1) – Inconsistent. Will stay on. Hard to access. Each way chance. 6
    15) Vieux Lion Rouge (33/1) – Leading contender last year. Failed to stay. Ground will make this a slog which probably won’t suit. Not for me. 5
    16) Chase The Spud (40/1) – Won 2017 Midlands National. Dissapointed this season. Has questions to answer. 6
    17) Warriors Tale (50/1) – Been running over shorter. Massive step up in trip makes him a wildcard. Seen worse bets. 6
    18) Seeyouatmidnight (12/1) – Laid out for this. Loves the mud. Will improve for his reappearance. 7
    19) Gas Line Boy (25/1) – Gallant fifth last year. Loves these fences. Running as well as ever even at the age of 12. Each way shout. 7
    20) The Dutchman (20/1) – Burst blood vessel latest. Strong stayer previously. Chance. 7
    21) Loves the mud. Beautiful jumper. Didn’t stay last year. 6
    22) Ucello Conti (20/1) – Generally consistent. Ran no race last time. Back from a break. Interesting. 7
    23) Saint Are (66/1) – Loves this race. Ground is against him. Never say never. 6
    24) Walk In The Mill (100/1) – Reserve in at the last hour. Hard to fancy stepped up in distance. Huge jump in class here. 5
    25) Raz De Maree (25/1) – Incredible horse. Welsh National winner this term. Loves heavy ground. Stays all day. As genuine a horse as you will find. Placer. 8
    26) I Just Know (18/1) – Appears to be at his best when up in trip. This marathon could suit. Will relish conditions. 9
    27) Virgillio (66/1) – Unknown quantity. Big step up in trip today. Looks uncomplicated. Could be on a nice mark off 10st 8lb. Lively outsider. 7
    28) Baie Des Iles (14/1) – Beautiful grey. Monster gamble on her in the recent weeks. Trip should suit. Mudlover must go well. 9
    29) Maggio (100/1) – Laid out for this. Likes Aintree. Not shown much this season. Lively outsider. 7
    30) Pendra (100/1) – 13th last year. Major stamina concern. Hard to see him going close. Oppose. 4
    31) Buywise (66/1) – Won the big Veterans race this year. 12th two years ago. Usually finishes well but had nothing left in 2016 at the end. 6
    32) Children’s List (100/1) – Talented but fragile. Faded quickly last time. Big stamina doubt. 5
    33) Lord Windermere (66/1) – Won 2014 Gold Cup. Pulled up in 2015 Grand National. Lost his way. Retirement beckons. 3
    34) Captain Redbeard (16/1) – Getting better. Handles heavy ground. Step up to marathon trip may suit. 6
    35) Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1) – Inconsistent. Often hits a flat spot. No hiding places here. 6
    36) Bless The Wings (50/1) – Big price. Inconsistent but talented. If still going at the last, he will finish strongly. Not one to trust though. 6
    37) Milansbar (25/1) – Paceless but stays all day. The extreme test will suit him and he’s one of few you’d expect will definitely complete. 7
    38) Final Nudge (50/1) – Started the season well. Likes the mud. Sound stayer. Has an each way chance. 6
    39) Double Ross (100/1) – Will set the tempo. Doubtful he can keep galloping for as long as some. Game type though. 6
    40) Road To Riches (66/1) – Superb at his best. In as a reserve. Looks gone at the game. Couldn’t back him with counterfeit. 2

    - Annibale Fly @ 14/1 e/w

    6:20 - Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys' And Amateur Riders' Race)
    Michael’s Mount looked good on the flat and coped well on soft ground which will help here. He won easily last time and there is surely more to come with James Bowen on board in this conditional riders race. Final Choice ran a good race last time and could go well at a price. The selection in the lucky last instead goes to DEAR SIRE who goes well on this ground. He bounced back from a poor run recently with a resounding win and has ran with credit in better class than this.

    1:45 – DEBECE @ 10/1
    2:25 – ON THE BLIND SIDE (NAP) @ 2/1
    3:00 – PETIT MOUCHOIR 4/7 (multiples only)
    3:40 – PAPER LANTERN @ 12/1
    4:20 – SAM SPINNER @ 6/4
    5:15 – ANNIBALE FLY @ 14/1 e/w
    6:20 – DEAR SIRE @ 11/1

  2. #2
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) Faugheen_Machine's Avatar
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    Sep 2014
    Good luck MoM. Another great read!

    The scatter gun has been out for me today. I'll post all my bets later this morning. *Dream Berry in the first is possibly going to be my biggest bet of the day.

    *Dream Berry a NR
    Last edited by Faugheen_Machine; 14th April 2018 at 05:55 AM.

  3. #3
    Professional Fat Jockey charlie's Avatar
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    Jul 2017
    Great read MOM as always. My selections for day 3 are:

    1.45 - Louis’ Vac Pouch @ 11/1
    2.25 - On The Blind Side @ 2/1
    3.40 - Paper Lantern @ 12/1
    4.20 - The World's End @ 8/1
    6.20 - Scheu Time @ 8/1 & Solatentif @ 25/1

    Grand National

    Maggio @ 100/1
    Milansbar @ 33/1
    Saint Are @ 66/1
    Vieux Lion Rouge @ 33/1

    *Captain Redbeard @ 66/1
    *Raz De Maree @ 50/1
    *Baie Des Iles @ 33/1

    *taken AP EW

  4. #4
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) Muswell's Avatar
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    Mar 2018
    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    Good luck MoM. Another great read!

    The scatter gun has been out for me today. I'll post all my bets later this morning. *Dream Berry in the first is possibly going to be my biggest bet of the day.

    *Dream Berry a NR
    Regal Encore and Walk in the Mill also NRs

  5. #5
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) Faugheen_Machine's Avatar
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    Sep 2014
    1pt ew Fix Le Cap 20/1
    0.75pt ew Jeanot De Nonont 40/1
    0.5pt ew Ah Littleluck 20/1

    5pt On The Blindside 7/4
    0.5pt ew Aye Aye Charlie 100/1

    0.5pt ew Diego De Charmil 10/1

    0.75pt ew Pearl Swan 14/1
    1.25pt ew Ibis Du Rheu 8/1

    5 pt Sam Spinner 6/4

    Tiger Roll 60/1ew, 50/1ew, 25/1win, 14/1win
    Ucello Conti 33/1ew
    Total Recall 20win, 14/1win
    Maggio 100/1ew, 130/1ew
    Raz De Maree 25/1ew

    Scheu Time 9/1ew
    Last edited by Faugheen_Machine; 14th April 2018 at 11:25 AM.

  6. #6
    I have been looking for a couple away from the nash that look overpriced ew and two I like are, Stamp your feet in the first and Identity Thief in the 4.20. I really liked this last one before he went chasing and has shown he's happier back over hurdles this season, decent effort lto, both look good value at 20's.
    2 in the nash for me are Gas line boy, 33's, and Warriors tale 50's.
    Last edited by MrMcGoldrick; 14th April 2018 at 12:58 PM.

  7. #7
    Stable Fat Jockey Scooby91's Avatar
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    Oct 2017
    Just the 1 bet for me
    hammersly lake 50/1 ew in the 3.45 of a huge mark of 155. Obviously a huge task off that mark but I believe he's been crying out for 3 miles and he's the classiest horse in the field, he powers away at the finish over 2m4 and we might not have seen the best of him yet. Genuinely won't be suprised to see him win here. All be it optimistic at the odds

  8. #8
    Stamp your feet was nr, best result I've had all week

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