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  • #31
    Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
    the ones I'm monitoring are the ones that get steady support for a couple of hours after the first evening show
    Yes, but you will know that the time a 'rick' is made is when the odds compilers open up, and when some are wildly wrong they'll quickly correct their prices.
    Also, bookies get scared, so a 25/1 shot receiving support at 5pm the evening before is more likely to get cut to 12/1 than 20/1 to prevent big liabilities piling up, so 25/1 into 12/1 could be the result of a small number of insignificant bets....

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    • #32
      Off topic but

      Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

      Anything to read in to that?

      Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
        Yes, but you will know that the time a 'rick' is made is when the odds compilers open up, and when some are wildly wrong they'll quickly correct their prices.
        Also, bookies get scared, so a 25/1 shot receiving support at 5pm the evening before is more likely to get cut to 12/1 than 20/1 to prevent big liabilities piling up, so 25/1 into 12/1 could be the result of a small number of insignificant bets....
        I take your point and see the regular movements of that type. I have been wondering if there is a way to sort the wheat from the chaff, which is why I look for the staged decline, take this Discko des Plages, now down to 100/30, that's been a steady drop and when I first posted it was available at a decent ew price, if you waited till this morning you really only have the win option. Connections want to get their money down so some of the moves must be genuine, if we can work out 30% of those we could make a profit at the prices, and if there are days when 2, or more, develope the profit could be substantial for a very small outlay

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          Off topic but

          Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

          Anything to read in to that?

          Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p
          That does seem odd Kev, don't really see a reason why PT wouldn't be riding, maybe he has somewhere he needs to be, strange though

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          • #35
            There’s merit in your strategy Mr M and believe me, if I could split the genuine gambles from the back/lay traders I’d be a rich man, but the exchanges created a brand new industry and there are, if course, those who use this opportunity to maximise their returns, be that by legal/illegal moral/immoral means.
            You no longer need to back winners to make money gambling....

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            • #36
              Watching the Desilvano race again I think the jockey, Mitch Bastyan, had him on the wide outside nearly all the way round, maybe inexperience but he was repeatedly pushing along to maintain a position thereby using up a lot of the horses energy to do so, what's the old saying, "you can give away weight but you can't give away ground" I think it may be worth keeping an eye on this horse to see if it gets backed again, would have been much closer I think with a more considered ride, but perhaps not such a generous price nto

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                There’s merit in your strategy Mr M and believe me, if I could split the genuine gambles from the back/lay traders I’d be a rich man, but the exchanges created a brand new industry and there are, if course, those who use this opportunity to maximise their returns, be that by legal/illegal moral/immoral means.
                You no longer need to back winners to make money gambling....
                You're a cynical man isty, very much like myself, but you never know, if the folk on this forum pool their extensive knowledge maybe we can differentiate. Perhaps certain stables/owners/jockey combos will materialise as ones to follow, it used to be a regular feature seeing gambles landed by the likes of Barney Curley and Tony Martin, there will be others that ride under the radar. F O'Brien and Victor Dartnall bang in a few, perhaps others will become more obvious

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                • #38
                  Mr M - is Gofast du Sauniere on your radar ?
                  Towc 5.25.
                  What’s the thinking here, 50/1 into 16s....

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                    Mr M - is Gofast du Sauniere on your radar ?
                    Towc 5.25.
                    What’s the thinking here, 50/1 into 16s....
                    No movement on that one yesterday evening, already got DDP in from 12/1>11/4 in the same race, so would have to say that's the one that fulfills the evg movement criteria with a carryover into the next day, muddys the water somewhat though

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Off topic but

                      Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

                      Anything to read in to that?

                      Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p
                      Fine theatre heavily backed too, 10>7/2

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        That DDP race was awful to watch, talk about attritional, some of those horses were making their first appearance on a racecourse, what a terrible experience for them. I don't think I would try to read anything into that, just a case of one sloshing through the mud at slightly less of a snails pace, the market had it right with the winner though

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                        • #42
                          Socksy in the 5.0 Haydock moved a little last night and it's carried over this morning, 12>13/2, right combo for a gamble too in Fergal O'Brien/Paddy Brennan, seen a few of these landed. I tend to follow the Bowen stable and they have Rons dream in this, ran a cracker lto under top weight but just got done on the run in, that's his problem, frequently finds one too good, maybe Socksy is the one today. Might have a reverse forecast, RD definitely handles the ground and lots of these gambles are getting lost in the mud

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                          • #43
                            The Hobson/J Bowen combo have one in the first at Carlisle that has seen plenty of money, not much of a price and an odds on fav to take on. The Discko des Plages gamble fell by the wayside from the stable so not sure how reliable their money is, but DDP was in a race that didn't look like it should have gone ahead, atrocious conditions, I hope they've taken that into account with todays

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                            • #44
                              Liex Excelsa heavily punted in the first at Cork, Fozzy Stack stable so usually some merit

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                              • #45
                                Call a cab for J P McManus being backed early for the 2.20 at Fairyhouse tomorrow, 6>7/2 already

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