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  • #16
    Skybet paying 1/5, 4 places on the MM race

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Unhomme View Post
      Skybet paying 1/5, 4 places on the MM race
      Small profit would have been made backkng it last night, was 7/1 and finished third, might be able to refine this with enough data

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      • #18
        Big priced one tomoz, Desilvano Warwick 3.50, 40>25>16, worth keeping an eye on.
        Also Literale ci Winc 3.05, more than halved in price, J P McManus horse
        Last edited by MrMcGoldrick; 27 March 2018, 08:56 PM.

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        • #19
          Checked this out last night and 33s was still available so paid no attention

          Now best priced 12s!

          Had a 0.5U play just in case you are on to something

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          • #20
            Around 9's now, so pretty sustained gamble

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            • #21
              That wasn't so good, ran out of steam but still better than some priced much shorter, a better than others run doesn't provide much profit though, needs to be better than all.

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              • #22
                Interresting reading each day.

                Keep it up

                Do you have any opinion on whether there is a difference between the money coming from a horse on the flat compared to over jumps?

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                  Interresting reading each day.

                  Keep it up

                  Do you have any opinion on whether there is a difference between the money coming from a horse on the flat compared to over jumps?
                  Hi Kev
                  The jumps money looks a bit more considered to me, by that I mean the smaller stables and lesser known owners appear to have more targeted plots, so you may have one big mover compared to 2 or 3 in the equivalent type flat races. I suppose the small prize money on offer means a plot horse is more attractive, and warm up runs easier to hide

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                  • #24
                    Zamparelli, 5.15 at Wetherby has already halved in price to 3/1, what makes this more interesting is the Skelton boys have a couple of very fancied runners earlier on the card, but this one must look like value to them

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
                      Big priced one tomoz, Desilvano Warwick 3.50, 40>25>16, worth keeping an eye on.
                      Also Literale ci Winc 3.05, more than halved in price, J P McManus horse
                      Literale Ci was interesting with over £165K bet on her in the last few minutes on BF Ex - approximately £360K of the total £680K traded on that race making the BSP 2.86 - so whatever we lost, someone lost a whole lot more.
                      Fascinating stuff MrMc

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                      • #26
                        Discko des plages, Towc 5.25, R Hobson/James Bowen, steady money 12>9>8>7, concerted effort, often seems like connection money gets on early eve, then flattens out, can then continue the following day before drifting towards the off. Will watch the pattern, be interested to know if the early backers are creating lay opportunities, or just backing to win

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                        • #27
                          Just for future ref, G Elliot has The Game changer running in the 9.0 tonight at Dundalk, and it's really been smashed up

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
                            be interested to know if the early backers are creating lay opportunities, or just backing to win
                            This is your biggest danger Mr M.
                            There are professional teams doing just that, setting off rumours and manipulating machines on the exchanges that are pre-programmed to follow trends/activity, if you had the inclination to monitor the price of every horse every day there will be scores of horses backed from 16/1 into 6/1, then back out to 10/1 who run like pigs, but the only ones who get hurt are the backers....

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                              This is your biggest danger Mr M.
                              There are professional teams doing just that, setting off rumours and manipulating machines on the exchanges that are pre-programmed to follow trends/activity, if you had the inclination to monitor the price of every horse every day there will be scores of horses backed from 16/1 into 6/1, then back out to 10/1 who run like pigs, but the only ones who get hurt are the backers....
                              It is a problem isty that's true, the ones I'm monitoring are the ones that get steady support for a couple of hours after the first evening show, those moving in several stages. There are plenty that open at a price and drop 5 or 10 points within an hour, that suggests alignment to me, but the gradual decrease is what I find interesting. Might be a dead end in which case I stick to my normal methods, this is just a possible way of finding something at a bigger price

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
                                Just for future ref, G Elliot has The Game changer running in the 9.0 tonight at Dundalk, and it's really been smashed up
                                2nd to a 20/1 shot, obviously not as reliable on the flat

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