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Stayers Hurdle 2019

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  • Would take a really weak renewal of the stayers for an 11yr old to win it, even one as good as thistlecrack.
    Would want double figure price minimum.

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    • Since the race took on its modern incarnation in 1972, only one horse (Crimson Embers, 11yo, in 1986) older than 9 has won and no 5yo has won. Age in this race is one of the strongest stats out there.

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      • Originally posted by archie View Post
        Since the race took on its modern incarnation in 1972, only one horse (Crimson Embers, 11yo, in 1986) older than 9 has won and no 5yo has won. Age in this race is one of the strongest stats out there.
        And there's a very strong trend towards younger horses, the only horses older than 8 to have won in the last 30 years are multiple winners Inglis Drever and Big Bucks whose will go down in history as legends in this sphere, and Solwhit who won an average renewal.
        Thistlecrack, should he take his chance, will arrive with a unique profile so cannot be immediately discounted but he would certainly have several trends to overcome in order to succeed

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        • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
          And there's a very strong trend towards younger horses, the only horses older than 8 to have won in the last 30 years are multiple winners Inglis Drever and Big Bucks whose will go down in history as legends in this sphere, and Solwhit who won an average renewal.
          Thistlecrack, should he take his chance, will arrive with a unique profile so cannot be immediately discounted but he would certainly have several trends to overcome in order to succeed
          Like most of the Championship races, unless you get a stand out Champion (multiple winner) the second season hurdler or chaser is the likeliest winner. There's no doubt that the majority of horses are peaking at ages 6-8, but no horse can be completely ruled out as things can fall right for the general trends to be upset every now and then.
          But the peak age trend has to be one of the most logical and scientifically sound IMO.

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          • bit of hope for those on him for stayers , based on todays comments

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            • Originally posted by quevega View Post
              http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/...f-the-cap-fits

              bit of hope for those on him for stayers , based on todays comments

              Thank you.
              Iv cashed and will hold fire for now. But I'd be keen on him here should they allow him to go down that route
              https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
              Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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                • Tom Segal seemed quite keen on him for the CH still ("Need a stayer" and all that).
                  Although he does like to go against the grain now

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                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Tom Segal seemed quite keen on him for the CH still ("Need a stayer" and all that).
                    Although he does like to go against the grain now
                    Tom Segal appears to be morphing into a Gobshite every time I hear him. Don't think Podcast's suit him.

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                    • Elliott has said Sutton Place will run in the Hatton's Grace this weekend. Ground is an issue with the horse but they were willing to run him at Punchestown in April 2017 on good to yielding ground and any type of soft in the ground in the Spring and I think they'll take their chance.

                      I can't help but feel there's still a huge race in him at some point in his career if he stays sound. Rated 160 after just 4 runs over hurdles as a 6 year old with the most noticeable beating of Supasundae twice giving him weight. Something went amiss in that Punchestown race but he was well fancied at 4/1 2nd fav.

                      Chasing appears to be put on hold this season. He didn't look a natural over fences but even then he beat Kemboy on his chase debut and went of 11/4 joint fav in the hottest Flogas Novice Chase for years.

                      25/1 with bet365. Seems a bet to nothing with the cash out?

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                      • Originally posted by jono View Post
                        Elliott has said Sutton Place will run in the Hatton's Grace this weekend. Ground is an issue with the horse but they were willing to run him at Punchestown in April 2017 on good to yielding ground and any type of soft in the ground in the Spring and I think they'll take their chance.

                        I can't help but feel there's still a huge race in him at some point in his career if he stays sound. Rated 160 after just 4 runs over hurdles as a 6 year old with the most noticeable beating of Supasundae twice giving him weight. Something went amiss in that Punchestown race but he was well fancied at 4/1 2nd fav.

                        Chasing appears to be put on hold this season. He didn't look a natural over fences but even then he beat Kemboy on his chase debut and went of 11/4 joint fav in the hottest Flogas Novice Chase for years.

                        25/1 with bet365. Seems a bet to nothing with the cash out?
                        Wonder if they'd drop him back in trip. CH tilt?

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                        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                          Wonder if they'd drop him back in trip. CH tilt?
                          They tried him in the Punchestown Stayers Hurdle in April 17 and has raced at 2m5f both times since so I can't imagine they would.

                          It isn't like Barry is desperate for a ride in the CH either. He's on the two time reigning Champion right now...


                          On the other hand, he needs to find one better than Unowhatimeanharry for the Stayers?

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                          • Sam Spinner out on Friday

                            Would hope for a win but not expecting fireworks as the others have a race under their belt

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                            • Gonna throw this out their..... Samcro - travels like a dream but doesn’t have a change of gears and finds little off the bridle. A grinder not a speedster..... assuming Newcastle is too sharp for him I personally think this should be his target

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                              • Just went to top up on the 36/1 Sam Spinner placed a few weeks ago (I've got him down as the winner today), and he's now best priced 20/1. What happened there!

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