View Poll Results: Test: Who wins the Cleeve Hurdle

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  • Paisley Park

    14 32.56%
  • Black Op

    17 39.53%
  • Midnight Shadow

    3 6.98%
  • Something else

    9 20.93%
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  1. #1
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Stayers Hurdle 2019

    I can't help myself.... I'm starting the first individual 2019 thread and Cheltenham only finished yesterday. So sorry! (The 2019 ante-post thread is already live and kicking too)

    Oddschecker have already got the market up and it looks like this:

    8/1 - Penhill
    12/1 - Apple's Jade
    14/1 - Supasundae
    14/1 - Colin's Sister
    16/1 - Sam Spinner
    20/1 - Bacardys
    20/1 - Wholestone
    20/1 - Next Destination
    33/1 - Apple's Shakira
    33/1 - Ok Corral
    40/1 - Kilbrecken Storm

    No other horses quotes. My opinion on the horses in that list whittles a few away...

    Bacardys will be reverting back to novice chasing which was the plan all along as he retains novice status. Falling again this season won't help his cause though!

    Kilbrecken Storm, the unfancied Albert Bartlett winner, will be novice chasing next season according to Tizzard after the race.

    Two of the three mares, Apple's Shakira and Colin's Sister aren't worth considering. Shakira too young and would have other options, Colin's Sister clearly held and not up to this grade in open company.

    Apple's Jade if I KNEW the target and it was a definite target would be on the shortlist. Certainly not a backable price to take the chance, but I don't believe her true running would have her behind Midnight Tour. However, she's been to the festival three times and only won once of the three which would also need a bit of examining.

    Next Destination was eye-catching in the Ballymore... I have no idea if he's going novice chasing or not... if not, I'd be keen to have him onside at 20/1. Nothing else in the Ballymore has given me any reason to think they'd be in the Stayers with a meaningful chase.

    Same comment applies to the Albert Bartlett because the winner goes chasing, I'm not sure of the plan for Ok Corral but he isn't quoted yet. 3rd placed Santini will be novice chasing.

    Ballyward is a possible because he was lightly raced and owned by Wylie who does like a runner in the Stayers but no idea what the plan in.

    The other four I haven't mentioned yet (Penhill, Supasundae, Sam Spinner, Wholestoner) all ran in the Stayers hurdle this year. Supasundae is a possible to go novice chasing... if he didn't 14/1 is interesting as better ground would perhaps see him in better light. I'd need to KNOW he wasn't going chasing but I would back this e/w if not (let me know if anyone has seen the plan).
    Sam Spinner and Wholestone give me absolutely no reasons that they'd improve next year to the standard required to win this race...

    ....which is why PENHILL at 8/1 is a SUPERB price

    The positives for me:

    1. Two time festival winner
    2. Two time course and distance winner
    3. Won at the festival on Good
    4. Won at the festival on Soft
    5. Trained by Willie Mullins is a plus (won the last two renewals)
    6. Three from Four over 3miles (the defeat a 2nd to another festival winner in Champagne Classic)
    7. Would suit Ruby Walsh's riding style, he's amazing at cruising through beaten horses (NC last year)
    8. If for whatever reason Ruby wasn't on, Paul Townend is unbeaten on him and has given him two no-nonsense rides at Cheltenham
    9. Easy to ride...likes to be out the back, widest of all, probably travelled further than any other horse in the race and stayed on strongest
    10. Trainer wants to win the race again...
    Mullins said: "It's fantastic for connections. I want to put him away now for Cheltenham next year.
    "He's not suited to training to the Flat and he's able to do this job so well."

    The negatives:

    1. He might get injured
    An obvious concern as with any antepost bet. Knowing he can win from a huge layoff, first time out though makes that less of a concern for me, as he should be trained for 1 day in mind, Quevega style

    2. Owner might force a flat campaign
    A slight concern too, however you'd hope he listens to the best trainer in the world who advises that he isn't suited to training for the flat

    3. He got beaten by a handicapper at Punchestown
    Could be a negative, however Champagne Classic that beat him had also won at the festival and hasn't run since, so no idea how good he is. What I would say though is that he still came 2nd and had Presenting Percy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo and Moulin A Vent all behind him that day and they'll all won this season so it isn't a bad defeat by any stretch

    I can't see any other negatives at all.

    8/1 I believe to be excellent value even at this stage. It is only available in two places, 7s 6s and 5s are all available and I will be chipping away until he gets to less than 4/1.

  2. #2
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    Go on then... had a 3pt free bet so ive put that on

  3. #3
    Glad to see part 1 of the 2019 Kevloaf trixie is already up and running...haha. Only comment would be isn't their a history of the market for this race in particular looking very different by the time the race comes round, with a number of improvers and switchers not anticipated at the start of the season?

  4. #4
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Glad to see part 1 of the 2019 Kevloaf trixie is already up and running...haha. Only comment would be isn't their a history of the market for this race in particular looking very different by the time the race comes round, with a number of improvers and switchers not anticipated at the start of the season?
    I think there is bound to be something from left-field - will be trying to spot it to get some value

    I just think there is only Next Destination if he stays over hurdles that'd potentially be a player from the Ballymore, I can't see anything in the Albert Bartlett and whatever comes "back" from chasing to me would not have had an ideal prep?

    I won't be going crazy... have got Saturdays, Aintree, Punchestown and then the flat to focus on now until about September - but I thought 8/1 was a big price considering the above and the opening post.

    360 days to go though so I don't expect many will be following me in at 8/1

  5. #5
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    I'll be continuing to follow in with any free bets I get Kev

  6. #6
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    McManus seems to like having one for this with surely OK Corral the current value.

  7. #7
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Excellent case made for Penhill. I was all over Nichols Canyon straight after the festival at 9/1 to repeat his win. Slightly shorter and even though the 8's have now gone 7/1 does represent very good value for a dual festival winner still. Similar to the case made for Buveur D'Air (and NC) after last years festival as well - his preparation this year could not have been any worse so if they do target this race specifically with no setbacks then there should only be improvement to come.

    I'd also echo what Folksi says for Ok Corral - ran a superb race in 2nd in the Albert Bartlett on his first go at 3 miles. He jumped the last wrong and lost plenty of momentum but stayed on well for 2nd. Have yet to hear what future plans are but i'd imagine that with his age (8 years old, will be 9 at next year's festival) and his fragility (2 years off with numerous setbacks) they will keep him over hurdles. You'd have to be concerned with his wellbeing (as Henderson has stressed how hard he is to get right) if placing an antepost bet but he is extremely unexposed at the trip and 33/1 is a fair price.

    Next Destination is the other obvious big price at 20/1 but the early vibes (only hear say mind, nothing official by any means) are he will be going chasing next season. Quotes early on in his career would suggest that was at least the initial outset:

    He's a nice chasing type and I got him from John Costello (having won a point to point). He'll go for a winners bumper, and will go novice hurdling next season. He's a staying type and a straight forward horse
    I'm still to watch the festival races back properly so yet to have a bet but those 2 are both horses i'd be keen to add.

    edit

    Having just posted it would appear Ok Corral may very well be at least tried over fences next year. The below after his win at Kempton in February...

    A €90,000 store bred by Declan Dorgan, OK Corral is expected to be an even classier performer when going chasing next season.

    “I can’t wait to get him over fences next year – he jumps so well,” said Henderson. “Like me he is getting better with age.”
    I'd be wary about him over fences myself. I never particularly like horses going over fences in their novice season at what will be 9 years old at the festival however little they have raced before that. Thistlecrack started his novice chase season at 8 years old though I guess.
    Last edited by jono; 03-20-2018 at 08:46 PM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Excellent case made for Penhill. I was all over Nichols Canyon straight after the festival at 9/1 to repeat his win. Slightly shorter and even though the 8's have now gone 7/1 does represent very good value for a dual festival winner still. Similar to the case made for Buveur D'Air (and NC) after last years festival as well - his preparation this year could not have been any worse so if they do target this race specifically with no setbacks then there should only be improvement to come.

    I'd also echo what Folksi says for Ok Corral - ran a superb race in 2nd in the Albert Bartlett on his first go at 3 miles. He jumped the last wrong and lost plenty of momentum but stayed on well for 2nd. Have yet to hear what future plans are but i'd imagine that with his age (8 years old, will be 9 at next year's festival) and his fragility (2 years off with numerous setbacks) they will keep him over hurdles. You'd have to be concerned with his wellbeing (as Henderson has stressed how hard he is to get right) if placing an antepost bet but he is extremely unexposed at the trip and 33/1 is a fair price.

    Next Destination is the other obvious big price at 20/1 but the early vibes (only hear say mind, nothing official by any means) are he will be going chasing next season. Quotes early on in his career would suggest that was at least the initial outset:



    I'm still to watch the festival races back properly so yet to have a bet but those 2 are both horses i'd be keen to add.

    edit

    Having just posted it would appear Ok Corral may very well be at least tried over fences next year. The below after his win at Kempton in February...



    I'd be wary about him over fences myself. I never particularly like horses going over fences in their novice season at what will be 9 years old at the festival however little they have raced before that. Thistlecrack started his novice chase season at 8 years old though I guess.
    If be wary of ok corral full stop. I deffinately expect he'll go chasing. But it will be an achievement in itself just to get him there to the spring festivals sound.

  9. #9
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    Just thinking here, does anyone think Finian's Oscar could go here?

    When Bryan Cooper jumped off him at Cheltenham on trials day he said he hated the ground and finished distressed.

    Am I mad in thinking he could be a player in this?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Folski View Post
    Just thinking here, does anyone think Finian's Oscar could go here?

    When Bryan Cooper jumped off him at Cheltenham on trials day he said he hated the ground and finished distressed.

    Am I mad in thinking he could be a player in this?
    I'd prefer FO to OK Corral that's for sure.

    One attempt over 3m and 2f out he still had a chance, and completely bottomed out, could have been down to the ground, could have been down to his breathing as he has a wind op after that race. I'd be much happier backing him for this than any race he contests over fences now.

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