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  1. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    Probably been brought up, but can anyone see Champagne Classic staying over hurdles?

    Let's just take a moment to appreciate his win at Punchestown, beating Penhill, Tin Soldier, Monalee, Al Boum Photo AND Presenting Percy in the process, now given how well them horses have done since this I think we can presume this was a fairly hot race, and the fact he has beaten Penhill too must make the idea of a Stayers' tilt quite attractive.

    Admittedly, the problem with my theory is that Elliott has come out and said he is basically heading down the novice chase route, as you'd expect with the majority of Gigginstown runners, however should that not work out for whatever reason or a he doesn't turn out to be as good as some of the others Giggs have then surely a turnaround is possible?

    I'm a little disappointed he is only a 16/1 shot 'any race' given he has been off the track for some time and if I can get a price about the Stayers' route that is attractive enough, then I'd be happy to have a small play.
    I was thinking him or Delta work would have a crack at the stayers myself but it doesn't look to be.

    The one I'm thinking that could revert and have a big chance is Coney Island but I'm only basing this on his terrible jumping last season and the fact JP likes to have something in this race.

  2. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    My fear for Sam Spinner is pretty much all his best form is on flatter tracks, Haydock & Catterick are solid tracks to lead from the front and suit him, hence 4 of his 6 career wins come from them.

    I do like the horse, think he is brilliant on certain tracks, but Cheltenham wouldn't be one I'd be backing him at personally. Also, the ground, surely this years festival was perfect for him with cut in it, he's never raced on 'Good' which is what we usually expect at the festival, so if that's the case I struggle further to see him causing a problem.
    All fair points but I think his need for soft/heavy has purely come from the Haydock romp, but he didn’t really beat anybody there. The Long Walk win was on GS and he has plenty of 1s next to his name in those conditions albeit at lower standards.

    At 6 going on 7 I think it’s reasonable to expect some progression. If his odds were 14/1 I wouldn’t be backing him but he’s twice the odds of L’ami Serge who he’s beaten both times they’ve raced and I think 33/1 is fantastic value given there are a lot of question marks over almost all of the horses infron of him in the market bar Penhill.

    I also added Arctic fire in a speculative e/w lucky 15 at 33s that is a big step towards retirement before 30 if it comes in!

  3. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hurricane fly View Post
    All fair points but I think his need for soft/heavy has purely come from the Haydock romp, but he didn’t really beat anybody there. The Long Walk win was on GS and he has plenty of 1s next to his name in those conditions albeit at lower standards.

    At 6 going on 7 I think it’s reasonable to expect some progression. If his odds were 14/1 I wouldn’t be backing him but he’s twice the odds of L’ami Serge who he’s beaten both times they’ve raced and I think 33/1 is fantastic value given there are a lot of question marks over almost all of the horses infron of him in the market bar Penhill.

    I also added Arctic fire in a speculative e/w lucky 15 at 33s that is a big step towards retirement before 30 if it comes in!
    Apologies HF, I hadn't even noticed the huge odds about him and from a 'value' perspective I can see why he may be of interest, especially, as you say, comparing L'ami Serge's odds!

    I was surprised to see 33's, and clearly the bookmakers have hugely differing views with PP & BetBright both going 16's, that's a big contrast!

  4. #74
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Is Sam Spinner definitely staying over hurdles? I found the article below that says he may go chasing.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/spor...sson-1-9068592

    I can't find any quotes from after the Aintree race ...

  5. #75
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Is Sam Spinner definitely staying over hurdles? I found the article below that says he may go chasing.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/spor...sson-1-9068592

    I can't find any quotes from after the Aintree race ...
    Found something ATR website....

    STAYING HURDLE DIVISION

    SAM SPINNER was ultimately disappointing in the second half of last season. He could have been ridden more positively at Cheltenham but there was no obvious excuse of his defeat at Aintree. Every horse has his price however and quotes of up to 33/1 for the 2019 Stayers' Hurdle are simply far too big. Jedd O’Keeffe reports the horse has thrived on his break and looks in great shape for the season ahead. He’s staying over hurdles with a defence of his Long Walk crown one of this first priorities.

    Identity Thief is an enigma of a horse. He has enormous ability but sometimes looks scared of his own shadow. He showed in the Champion Hurdle that the class is still there and I was delighted to see him pick up a Grade 1 success over a longer trip at Aintree. I’d assume that longer distances may be the plan but he’s a difficult horse to rely on. He’s well worth keeping on side though on those occasions where the market under rates him.

    1.5 pts e/w Sam Spinner 36.75/1 WH
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 10-14-2018 at 10:31 AM.

  6. #76
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    Well , that sounds like good news to me , At least i may get a run for my money !.
    I thought at the time 33-1 was too big , even if he did disappoint at the festival.
    when someone mentioned him going chasing ,i thought oh well . so i'm pleased to read that,
    and hoping he is a better horse this year . ( pocket talking obviously ).

  7. #77
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Without a doubt my most important horse this festival at the moment is still Penhill

    Sending him to the Stayers’ Hurdle fresh worked out well last season, so I’m happy to try and do something similar with him this season.
    Could there be a "smoother" season? No news is good news until we get to around February

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