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7-1, but do we not see his odds lengthening throughout the season with other horses running well and Penhill possibly not even having a prep again?
Given that he managed it last year with no prep. I think that the bookies will be wise to it.
They will no doubt shorten others, but I would doubt that Penhill's odds will get bigger (unless he DOES have an outing and runs badly)
Key to Penhill’s defence is whether he globetrots in November, if Bloomy sends his others to Melbourne then I’ll be pressing Penhill for the Stayers, prep or no prep...
Being given 2 x 1U free bets which I’ve added on Penhill and Penhill/Chelsea double
Takes me up to 4.5U on Penhill assuming Chelsea win tomorrow
That’s a position I’ll probably stay at all the way up to Cheltenham, rewatched last years race and Supersundae performed a lot better than I remembered but so too did Sam Spinner in 5th, in my head he faded badly but rewatching I saw how well he plugged in for 5th. SS will still only be 7 when the fez comes around. .
His best win came on GS and I don’t believe he’s ever run on good ground but given his long walk performance I’m not worried that he’s a mud lark, and willing to forgive the Aintree 3rd as I would think the stayers took a lot out of him.
I’m not one for making books up on races as I haven’t got the cash to but as big as 33/1 with WH and betfred I’d be shocked if that’s not atleast double his SP and maybe the location of my next free bet with WH
Edit: hadn’t even thought about the idea SS could go over a fence, O’keefe said after Cheltenham it would depend on how Aintree went, nothing since but he is priced up 20/1 any race and/or 25/1 RSA with WH
Last edited by Hurricane fly; 19 September 2018, 11:42 PM.
Kevin Blake was quite downbeat on Penhill after the Cheltenham Festival in the review. Was along the lines of the fact that two years in a row he's won off a "joke" pace, so no idea how good a stayer he actually is.
For me, he's still top drawer... he was beaten fair and square by Faugheen after the festival, and Mullins was quite clear he'd "come on for the run" at Cheltenham.... which makes Faugheen the one to beat. Which he is.... but I don't expect him to be there.
It's the only thing putting me off having a massive stake on Penhill though...
I think you're right regarding Sam Spinner - I do like to make a book where I can and as a very general rule 'd certainly take last seasons SP fav in a championship race at 33/1 the next year.
20/1 is JUST about too short in the any race market as I probably wouldn't fancy him in the RSA (too classy standard) and I would in the 4 miler but would the trainer/owner gert a decent jockey? - I can leave him for now but he's on the radar!
Probably been brought up, but can anyone see Champagne Classic staying over hurdles?
Let's just take a moment to appreciate his win at Punchestown, beating Penhill, Tin Soldier, Monalee, Al Boum Photo AND Presenting Percy in the process, now given how well them horses have done since this I think we can presume this was a fairly hot race, and the fact he has beaten Penhill too must make the idea of a Stayers' tilt quite attractive.
Admittedly, the problem with my theory is that Elliott has come out and said he is basically heading down the novice chase route, as you'd expect with the majority of Gigginstown runners, however should that not work out for whatever reason or a he doesn't turn out to be as good as some of the others Giggs have then surely a turnaround is possible?
I'm a little disappointed he is only a 16/1 shot 'any race' given he has been off the track for some time and if I can get a price about the Stayers' route that is attractive enough, then I'd be happy to have a small play.
In Sean Boyces antepost view he puts up Sam Spinner and mentions he is staying over hurdles.
Is there any further proof of this? That’s the only thing stopping me backing him at the moment
My fear for Sam Spinner is pretty much all his best form is on flatter tracks, Haydock & Catterick are solid tracks to lead from the front and suit him, hence 4 of his 6 career wins come from them.
I do like the horse, think he is brilliant on certain tracks, but Cheltenham wouldn't be one I'd be backing him at personally. Also, the ground, surely this years festival was perfect for him with cut in it, he's never raced on 'Good' which is what we usually expect at the festival, so if that's the case I struggle further to see him causing a problem.
Probably been brought up, but can anyone see Champagne Classic staying over hurdles?
Let's just take a moment to appreciate his win at Punchestown, beating Penhill, Tin Soldier, Monalee, Al Boum Photo AND Presenting Percy in the process, now given how well them horses have done since this I think we can presume this was a fairly hot race, and the fact he has beaten Penhill too must make the idea of a Stayers' tilt quite attractive.
Admittedly, the problem with my theory is that Elliott has come out and said he is basically heading down the novice chase route, as you'd expect with the majority of Gigginstown runners, however should that not work out for whatever reason or a he doesn't turn out to be as good as some of the others Giggs have then surely a turnaround is possible?
I'm a little disappointed he is only a 16/1 shot 'any race' given he has been off the track for some time and if I can get a price about the Stayers' route that is attractive enough, then I'd be happy to have a small play.
I was thinking him or Delta work would have a crack at the stayers myself but it doesn't look to be.
The one I'm thinking that could revert and have a big chance is Coney Island but I'm only basing this on his terrible jumping last season and the fact JP likes to have something in this race.
My fear for Sam Spinner is pretty much all his best form is on flatter tracks, Haydock & Catterick are solid tracks to lead from the front and suit him, hence 4 of his 6 career wins come from them.
I do like the horse, think he is brilliant on certain tracks, but Cheltenham wouldn't be one I'd be backing him at personally. Also, the ground, surely this years festival was perfect for him with cut in it, he's never raced on 'Good' which is what we usually expect at the festival, so if that's the case I struggle further to see him causing a problem.
All fair points but I think his need for soft/heavy has purely come from the Haydock romp, but he didn’t really beat anybody there. The Long Walk win was on GS and he has plenty of 1s next to his name in those conditions albeit at lower standards.
At 6 going on 7 I think it’s reasonable to expect some progression. If his odds were 14/1 I wouldn’t be backing him but he’s twice the odds of L’ami Serge who he’s beaten both times they’ve raced and I think 33/1 is fantastic value given there are a lot of question marks over almost all of the horses infron of him in the market bar Penhill.
I also added Arctic fire in a speculative e/w lucky 15 at 33s that is a big step towards retirement before 30 if it comes in!
All fair points but I think his need for soft/heavy has purely come from the Haydock romp, but he didn’t really beat anybody there. The Long Walk win was on GS and he has plenty of 1s next to his name in those conditions albeit at lower standards.
At 6 going on 7 I think it’s reasonable to expect some progression. If his odds were 14/1 I wouldn’t be backing him but he’s twice the odds of L’ami Serge who he’s beaten both times they’ve raced and I think 33/1 is fantastic value given there are a lot of question marks over almost all of the horses infron of him in the market bar Penhill.
I also added Arctic fire in a speculative e/w lucky 15 at 33s that is a big step towards retirement before 30 if it comes in!
Apologies HF, I hadn't even noticed the huge odds about him and from a 'value' perspective I can see why he may be of interest, especially, as you say, comparing L'ami Serge's odds!
I was surprised to see 33's, and clearly the bookmakers have hugely differing views with PP & BetBright both going 16's, that's a big contrast!
I can't find any quotes from after the Aintree race ...
Found something ATR website....
STAYING HURDLE DIVISION
SAM SPINNER was ultimately disappointing in the second half of last season. He could have been ridden more positively at Cheltenham but there was no obvious excuse of his defeat at Aintree. Every horse has his price however and quotes of up to 33/1 for the 2019 Stayers' Hurdle are simply far too big. Jedd O’Keeffe reports the horse has thrived on his break and looks in great shape for the season ahead. He’s staying over hurdles with a defence of his Long Walk crown one of this first priorities.
Identity Thief is an enigma of a horse. He has enormous ability but sometimes looks scared of his own shadow. He showed in the Champion Hurdle that the class is still there and I was delighted to see him pick up a Grade 1 success over a longer trip at Aintree. I’d assume that longer distances may be the plan but he’s a difficult horse to rely on. He’s well worth keeping on side though on those occasions where the market under rates him.
1.5 pts e/w Sam Spinner 36.75/1 WH
Last edited by Kevloaf; 14 October 2018, 10:31 AM.
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