Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 25
  1. #11
    Morning Glory
    Guest
    De Boitron for Ferdy just in the handicap 50s in a place

  2. #12
    Garry Nutting

    2pts each-way BENSALEM (14-1 general)

    1pt win OUR MICK (10-1 Blue Square, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, )

    Our Mick was Tanya tips at one of previews too.

  3. #13
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by mayo View Post
    Garry Nutting

    2pts each-way BENSALEM (14-1 general)

    1pt win OUR MICK (10-1 Blue Square, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, )

    Our Mick was Tanya tips at one of previews too.
    Bensalem out of the Festival with an injury this morning.

  4. #14
    Morning Glory
    Guest
    Wonder if top weight will run

    His 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup winner Quel Esprit heads the page for the JLT Specialty Chase, but he does so off a 3lb lower mark than he would at home, and the vast majority of travellers have been treated in a similarly fair fashion, with hikes of between 1lb and 6lb pretty much the norm.

  5. #15
    Senior Member Lester's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    855
    Mccoy

    I missed winning on Alfie Sherrin last year because he had 10st and I rode Quantitativeasing, but if he runs in the JLT Specialty I’d probably ride him.

  6. #16
    Sefton
    Guest
    Timeform's Matt Gardner endeavours to find an ante-post play in this year's JLT Handicap Chase...

    Attempting to fathom a Cheltenham Festival handicap at this stage is akin to having a crack at a Rubik's Cube whilst blindfolded. I first looked at the JLT Handicap Chase prior to the weights being released, which is a bit like lopping your hands off prior to donning your blindfold and bashing away at the cube of many colours, and swiftly decided that the sensible thing to do was to wait for Phil Smith to pontificate at the official Cheltenham weights unveiling lunch, where I expect much champagne was quaffed and many canapés were devoured, prior to suggesting a bet in this contest as you are never entirely sure quite what fettling he will have done to the BHA ratings.

    Clearly at this juncture it is impossible to be dogmatic about who may line up in this race, and were the David Pipe-trained Ballynagour to take his chance he would almost certainly be the selection, but market vibes suggest he is more likely to head to the Byrne Group Plate so, for now at least, we will discount him from our calculations.

    It is often said that jumping is the name of the game, and if you can't get from A to B in a relatively tidy manner then you're essentially stuffed, but Synchronised put paid to that idea somewhat by winning the Welsh National, the Lexus Chase and the Gold Cup and it is far from beyond the realms of possibility that Our Mick can belie a less-than-desirable fencing technique to score in this event. The seven-year-old was often let down by his jumping over hurdles and that trait has continued in his chasing career, not clearing his obstacles with any panache when finishing third in this race last year on his first crack at three miles; but for that he could well have gone close to spoiling Alfie Sherrin's party, as he was beaten only five lengths at the finish.

    Our Mick's reappearance, at Cheltenham in January, was a highly encouraging one and he actually jumped fairly well for much of the way. Coming to the third last he had every chance upsides eventual winner Katenko but his old tendencies surfaced once more as he jumped badly left, bumping into that rival and jettisoning jockey Jason Maguire from the saddle. Despite obvious concerns surrounding his jumping he is of definite interest here, allowed to compete from a mark just 1 lb higher than 12 months ago, and the suspicion remains that he may prove to be a better horse at this trip.

    Our Mick's main rival in the market at present is Cantlow, whose season looks to have been geared around a crack at the Festival with this race seemingly his target. The eight-year-old is yet to go any further than two miles and three furlongs over fences but he was a useful stayer over hurdles, finishing third in last year's Pertemps Final over three miles, and any improvement that he may have to offer in this sphere is likely to be brought about by more emphasis being placed on his stamina. The factor that is off-putting with regards to his chances is that he is yet to have his mettle tested over fences, with connections keeping him to races with relatively few rivals, and he may just get found out in a big-field scenario, particularly coming up against opponents that boast greater chasing experience.

    With far too many others to discuss the best option may be to take a quick spin through several, so here it goes. Loch Ba is pretty consistent and has been in excellent form this season but probably needs to improve again to defy a mark 12 lb higher than for his Newbury win, White Star Line has a definite chance of this sort of mark but seems more likely to contest the Pulteney, Gullinbursti hasn't convinced with his jumping in four starts over fences and Fruity O'Rooney is likely to give it a good go from the front, and will be suited by a return to three miles, but probably doesn't have much wiggle room in terms of his handicap mark.

    Alfie Sherrin, last season's winner of this race, is worth a brief mention in his quest to defend his crown but it is difficult to get excited by his two starts this term, for all that he is likely to prove a different proposition come March 12.

    Despite worries over his jumping the selection for the 2013 JLT Handicap Chase is Our Mick, as he looks fairly well treated judged upon his effort in this race last year and he could prove to be a superior horse at three miles. Were his jumping to be slicker than usual his chances would clearly be enhanced, but his obvious ability could easily make up for any deficiencies and he seems sure to go close.

    Recommendation:
    Back Our Mick @ 9.4 in the JLT Handicap Chase

    Click here to open a betfair account
    Last edited by Old Vic; 03-02-2013 at 12:43 PM.

  7. #17
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    473
    Will be aged either 9 or 10 and have run before at the Festival or will be 8 yrs and below and improving i.e. with a rising handicap rating. Will have already won at least a Class 3 chase. If a novice, will have won a hurdle worth at least £10k to the winner. Won over 3 miles or at least placed over 3 miles in two of last three runs. Will have run between 5 and 11 times over fences in UK and/or Ireland. No more than 4 chase starts this season. Will have been 1st or 2nd this season and in either of last two runs. Unlikely to carry over 10st 12lb or be more than 3lb out of the handicap. Will not be ridden by a conditional jockey. Winner’s handicap rating to be between 129 and 143. Any price. One of the top weights to be placed. Will have at least two runs this season. Wasn't unplaced in this years Racing Post Chase and unlikely to have run in this season's Newbury Hennessey. Winner to be 'held up' or 'off the pace'. Could be trained by anyone but P Nicholls has a poor record. Respect Pipe trained 7/1 and below. Won't be blinkered unless worn for first or second time.

    AGE Spot the Difference ’05, Uncle Ernie ’97, Foyle Fisherman ’91 and Three Counties ’89 are the only 12 year olds to have won a race at the Festival since ’84. Nothing aged 11 or over has been placed in this since ’97 (4 triers in '12). Chief Dan George and Offshore Account '10, Joes Edge '07 slightly improving the return from 10yr olds. After those three nothing above a 9 yr old in the first four in '08 or '09 ('09, 8 ten year olds in field of 21). Younger theme had been increasing with Kelami ’05, Dun Doire ’07 and An Accordion '08 first seven yr olds to win since Tipping Tim ‘92.

    Only 3 winners outside of 7 to 10 year age group from last 38 runnings.

    FORM 3 winning novices in last 9 runnings. Fork Lightning '04 first in 30 years, then Dun Doire ’06 who was still technically a novice but had already won a Thyestes Chase and the ill fated Wichita Lineman. 2010 Might have been 4 winning novices but for a poor enough ride by Timmy Murphy on the 7 yr old, The Package or Bensalem who fell 2 out when going well. Also Our Mick, Reve De Sivola and Ogee all recently placed when novices.

    History of horses being placed more than once in this e.g The Package, Juveigneur, Irish Hussar, Kelami, Ad Hoc, Unguided Missile, Boraceva. Bensalem may well have been. None in '10 or '09. Fair Along, 4th in 2011, had been previously placed in a QM and an Arkle.

    WEIGHT CARRYING Alfie Sherrin (1lb wrong) the third winner out of 63 runnings from out of the handicap (only Maamur ’96 paid any sort of return of those who have more than 3lb ‘wrong’ since then). Only 2 from last 28 winners have won carrying over 11st 2lb and Bensalem first to carry more than 10st 12 to victory since Unguided Missile's 11st 10 in '98. Between '05 and '09 Dear Villez, Keen Leader, Irish Hussar and Juveigneur were all placed carrying over 11st. 2010 All 4 placed horses 10st 10 and below. 2011 both Caroles Legacy and Fair Along carried 11st 2. 2012 Our Mick had 11st 1lb.
    IRISH TRAINED Before Youlneverwalkalone ‘03 and Dun Doire ’06 the last Irish trained winner was Arkloin ’66 carrying 12st 5lbs. Both came here having just won major Irish handicaps. No Irish trained runners in ‘04, ‘05 or ‘07. Two 4th places ’08 and '10. 3 tried between last 2 renewals, all unplaced.

    M. and D Pipe. Improving. Great Endeavour still in contention when fell 2011. The Package 2nd last year and 4th 2010. An Accordion won in '08. None of those priced above 7/1. In previous 15 races 30 losers for them of which only 4 paid a place.

    F Murphy - 07 Winner and 08 third. Riguez Dancer unpl last year
    N Henderson - One winner and 5 placed from last 12 runners (2 unpl last year including Quantitiveeasing 11/2jfav. 2011 Caroles Legacy beaten 1/2l). All his placed horses returned between 11/2 and 66/1.

    Paul Nicholls yet to win this - His handicap chasers over burdened at this time of year? 2012 Noland 25/1 ridden by Ruby PU.

    PROFILE 16 from last 19 had all won over 3 miles (Alfie had won a 3m hurdle). Exceptions-Bensalem, Rough Quest ‘95 and Frenchmans Creek’ 02 but those had been placed over three miles in at least two of their last three runs. 9 of last 22 winners (including Alfie) had already tried 4 miles sometime during their career. 13 hadn’t.

    11 from last 15 had won handicap chase Class 3 or above. Exception were the two English trained novices, Bensalem (who didn't try a handicap between Chelt 2010 and 2011) and Alfie Sherrin. All of these had won a Class 3 novice chase and all had previous won a hurdle worth £10k to the winner. Only Fork Lightning had not won at least a Cl2 Hurdle.

    13 from last 15 had between 5 and 11 chase runs in UK and Ireland (Alfie had 6, Bensalem, 5).

    7 from last 15 placed at least at a previous Festival. 8 hadn't.

    1st and 2nd last year both had cheekpieces. Alfie Sherrin first time. An Accordion only other blinkered winner from last 37 that tried. His second time.
    All former winners at least two runs this season (coincidentally both Alfie and Bensalem finished 5th the run before in a 3m h'cap hurdle) .

    17 of last 20 had run in the past 45 days (31st January). Not Wichita, Dun Doire or Joe’s Edge. The latter hadn’t been out since November.

    4 of the last 16 runners up in Racing Post Chase went on to Cheltenham that year to run in 3 mile + chases. Two winners. '00 Marlborough WH Chase, '97 KIng Lucifer Kim Muir. The others were L'Ami who finished 4th in the Gold Cup and Possol unplaced in this '09. (Rolling Aces)
    Ignore those that finished unplaced in Racing Post Chase. 13 tried recently, only Shardam of the lot has been placed (2012 Mount Oscar PU).

    10 from last 12 'held up in rear' or 'well off the pace' (Not sure that AP had much choice on Wichita).

    No Newbury Hennessey runners have won this since Seagram ‘91 (Billie Magern '12, Razor Royale '11, Niche Market, Nenuphar Collonges tried and failed and Offshore Account '10 got placed here. The latter fell at the first at Newbury which saved him that usual brutal pace). Be advised that the 2012 Newbury Hennessey form is standing up well at present with Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant and Teaforthree amongst others

    Last three favourites to oblige are Gay Vulgan ’77, Antonin ’94, Wichita Lineman '09. He was also AP's first ever winner in this race. Was the worst race at Festival for favourites, that mantel has moved on somewhere else. Bensalem, Marlborough and An Accordion were solid morning favourites but drifted before the race itself. (Sunnyhillboy 9/2 fav in 2011)

    Monkerty Tunkerty won the same Doncaster Veterans Chase as Chief Dan George did before coming here.

    18 of last 21 winners had been 1st or 2nd sometime that season. 15 had won. Not Alfie.

    20 from last 24 had been 1st or 2nd in either of last two runs. Not Alfie.

    6 from last 10 won last time out. 3 last time out winners in 2012, best was 7th. Blazing Bailey only last time winner in 2011, 9th. In 2010 the 1-2-3 were all last time out winners from only 5 such qualifiers from the 24 runners.

    11 from last 13 no more than 4 chase starts that season.

    Last 18 winners had run previously at the Festival or were aged 8 and below and improving i.e handicap mark is going up. (Alfie had been unpl in a Pertemps Final)

    HANDICAP RATINGS Since ’83 Ratings of winners between 129 and 150. Last 12 have been 143 or under. Fork Lightning was 136, Kelami 133, Dun Doire 129, Joes Edge 130, An Accordion 143, Wichita 142, Chief Dan 142, Bensalem 143, Alfie Sherrin 129. No winner rated 150+ since Scot Lane in '79.

    JOCKEY No claimer has ridden the ridden the winner of this since at least 1990. 10 unpl over the last three years.

    BETTING 3 of the last 12 were not from the first 4 in the market but only one favourite has won. You might expect that.

  8. #18
    Can you update entries Vic ?

    Posted some news about Midnight chase on his thread http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...-P-Mullholland ..great ew shout imo.

  9. #19
    racecaller13
    Guest
    The JLT Specialty Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.



    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    6yo: 0-2-12

    7yo: 3-8-28

    8yo: 3-3-42

    9yo: 2-11-48

    10yo: 2-4-28

    11yo+: 0-0-32

    10 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places

    Horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have failed to fill a single placed from 32 runners in the past 10 renewals.



    Breeding

    Irish bred: 8-11-98

    French bred: 1-10-46

    British bred: 1-6-35

    Other: 0-1-11

    Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.



    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

    Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-14-67

    Horses carrying 10-5 to 10-13: 7-11-84

    Horses carrying 10-4 or lower: 2-3-39

    7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.

    Top Weight: UP23P0787597 (0-2-12)



    Official Ratings

    Horses rated 144 or higher: 0-12-61

    Horses rated 130 to 143: 8-16-112

    Horses rated 129 or below: 2-0-17

    All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.



    Recent/Past Form

    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)

    8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start

    8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

    10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase

    10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences

    10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

    9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire

    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

    8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+

    9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham

    3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February



    Other Races

    Previous year's winner (Alfie Sherrin): F (0-0-1)

    Thyestes Chase winner (Jadanli): 1 (1-0-1)

    32Red Casino Veterans' Handicap Chase winner (Monkerty Tunkerty): 1 (1-0-1)

    Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 2 (0-1-1)

    Shloer Novice Chase winner (Super Duty): 3 (0-1-1)

    Kim Muir winner (Sunnyhillboy): 20 (0-1-2)

    BetVictor.com Handicap Chase winner (Nadiya De La Vega): 75 (0-0-2)

    Masters Handicap Chase winner (On Trends): P9 (0-0-2)

    Racing Plus Chase winner (Opening Batsman): PP (0-0-2)

    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 05

    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing B7

    2 of 2 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

    2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P



    Trainers

    Alan King (2-1-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-11) have each saddled 2 winners since 2003.

    David Pipe (1-2-9) and Ferdy Murphy (1-1-7) have also both trained 1 of last 10 winners.

    Nicky Henderson (0-5-11) trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his 11 runners get placed in past 10 runnings.

    Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) has gained 3 places from 11 runners while Donald McCain (0-1-2) and Gary Moore (0-1-3) each saddled a placed finisher last year.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-15) and Venetia Williams (0-1-9) have managed just 2 places from their collective 24 runners since 2003.

    There had been no Irish trained (2-1-15) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003 but the Irish have landed 2 of the 10 renewals from about 8% of the total runners. Both Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.



    Price

    7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1

    The market principals have done well in this, with 22 of 38 places being filled by horses priced 11/1 or lower however there have been 2 big shocks in the last 6 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007 and a 33/1 in 2010.

    Favourites (1-5-14) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    · Aged 6 to 10

    · Irish bred

    · Carrying 10-5 to 10-13

    · Officially rated 129 to 143 (especially 139-143)

    · Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

    · Posted an RPR of 134+ last time

    · Won over 3M+

    · First or second season chaser

    · Won 2 to 5 times over fences

    · Won a class 3 or better handicap chase

    · Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+

    · Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

    · Priced 11/1 or below

    · Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland

  10. #20
    Morning Glory
    Guest
    Think midnight chase is a great each way shout ...

    At the time of writing the final declarations have yet to be made but here are my thoughts on some of the entries in the three-mile handicap chase. Our Mick has 'previous' in this race, Donald McCain's horse was third in it last year when still a novice and he has had just the one start since, when unseating his jockey at this track in January. I don't think that will have done him any harm and he was in the process of running a good race at the time of his departure. Katenko won that contest and he is very well regarded by Venetia Williams.

    Our Mick is only 1lb higher in the handicap this year he can make his presence felt once again at a track that suits him well. Paul Webber's Cantlow has multiple entries at the meeting and wherever he runs he is of interest. This horse is owned by JP McManus and falls into the unexposed and improving category, always dangerous in a race like this. He has won his last two starts in novice chases and is two out of four over fences. He is a winner over this trip over hurdles so there are no stamina worries.

    Opening Batsman represents up-and-coming trainer Harry Fry who did a great job for his owners (and those who backed the horse) to win the Racing Plus Chase last time out. He is 8lb higher here.

    It would be very dangerous to dismiss Midnight Chase despite the fact he is now 11 years old. Neil Mulholland's horse loves it round Prestbury Park and is looking very well handicapped nowadays. He would be my each-way selection at the prices (he is 20s at the time of writing).

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •