Rocky Creek : Grand National 2015 Contender

[Lester]

PF Nicholls

But I gather that when The Times' Alan Lee put up Rocky Creek as a possible Gold Cup outsider for next year, Matt Chapman was more than a touch dismissive.

That in itself is no bad thing, as I remember Chapman telling me after Al Ferof won at Taunton that the horse had no chance in the Supreme. You know the rest!!

But, being serious, I would like to think that Alan was more on the mark on this occasion. I am not getting carried away at all after a couple of wins in novice chases, but I do think Rocky Creek is a proper horse.

And the evidence has probably been there all along. Look at his first point-to-point win in Ireland.

He beat Rolling Aces by four lengths, and Rocky Creek is now rated 149 after his Warwick win. And Rolling Aces is rated 145 after his 11 length defeat of Thursday's Wincanton winner Opening Batsman last time, and is a possible for the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton.

That was some point-to-point, with even the third horse home, who was some eight lengths further behind, Bar De Ligne, currently rated 131 after winning in bumper and hurdles.

Rocky Creek travelled and won really impressively at Warwick, and he will obviously be given an entry in the Sun Alliance.

But I view Rocky Creek as very much a horse for next season, and I am already looking forward to the Hennessy with him. So I wouldn't mind missing Cheltenham with him, like we did with Silviniaco Conti last year, and going to Aintree.

But obviously nothing will be decided until I sit down with Andy Stewart and David Johnson, though I think a race such as the Reynoldstown at Ascot could be an option for his next start.

Wherever he goes next, and whatever he does this season though, he is a proper horse for the future.

[mayo]

Donn

Then there was Rocky Creek. Nice, progressive staying novice chaser, a worthy favourite for the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot on Saturday, looked like a real player in the RSA Chase picture, although there had been rumblings about the National Hunt Chase.

Interestingly, Reynoldstown winners have a terrible record in the RSA Chase, which is surprising given that, as a Grade 2 three-mile novices’ chase run at Ascot three and a half weeks before Cheltenham, it should be an ideal pointer to the staying novices’ championship race. The 2008 winner Albertas Run is still the only Reynoldstown winner since Killiney in 1973 to go on and win the RSA Chase in any of its guises at Cheltenham.

It is also interesting that the last time Rocky Creek’s trainer Paul Nicholls won the race (Gungadu, 2007), he ran the horse in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, not the RSA Chase. That was probably more out of necessity than out of choice, mind you, as the trainer had the monster that was Denman for the RSA Chase that year.

The latest chapter in the Rocky Creek story is that he won the Reynoldstown at Ascot on Saturday, and was fairly impressive in so doing. Three of his four rivals blundered away their chances, but the one who didn’t, Houblon Des Obeaux, was his main danger anyway, and Venetia Williams’ horse is probably a bit better than the press that he gets. Nevertheless, Rocky Creek beat him fairly comprehensively, probably with more in hand than the one-and-three-quarter-length winning margin, despite jumping notably to his left, not ideal at right-handed Ascot. He should be better back on a left-handed track like Cheltenham.

But RSA Chase ante-post-betting-voucher-holders went from elation to deflation when part-owner David Johnson ventured afterwards that “there are only just over three weeks until the Festival and my gut feeling is that we’ll probably wait for Aintree.”

Interestingly, Team Nicholls adopted that strategy with their Reynoldstown horse Silviniaco Conti last year – Aintree instead of Cheltenham – and that one hasn’t worked out too badly this term. Rocky Creek is, of course, a different horse to Silviniaco, and Silviniaco actually got beaten in the Reynoldstown, but it was a strategy of patience, and it has been well-rewarded to date.

Nicholls mentioned the Hennessy next November as a possible intermediate target for Rocky Creek and, a stamina-endowed progressive young novice chaser, that makes a lot of sense. He is sure to go up from his mark of 149 for Saturday’s win, but he shouldn’t go up by that much (a one-and-three-quarter-length defeat of a horse rated 148 dictates as much) and a rating in the low 150s would be an interesting Hennessy rating for him.

[JohnC]

Mordin

The Reynoldstown Novices Chase was run in rather an odd way this year. Sectional times show the early gallop was strong over the first eight fences and then slowed down mid race before picking up again. My calculations suggest the mid-race slow down hurt the final time.

ROCKY CREEK (34-pace adjusted 37) won the race and is a strong, attractive sort. He may not have been suited by the near sprint from six out to two out. But nonetheless if he was a serious RSA Chase candidate he would surely have been able to put a lot more daylight between himself and the runner up.

The record of Reynoldstown winners in the RSA Chase does not exactly inspire confidence. If the same proportion of Reynoldstown winners have contested the RSA Chase since 1973 as they have since 1988 then only one of the last 25 horses to attempt the double has pulled it off (Alberta’s Run in 2008).

Horses that have filled second place in the Reynoldstown have a better record in the RSA Chase. Three of the last twelve to run in the big Cheltenham race have scored.

[Old Vic]

2 hrs charlotte hodges charlotte hodges @hodges_c2kauto

@BetfairRacing #askpaul Do you think Rocky Creek is a gold cup horse for next year?

Betfair Racing @BetfairRacing

PN: Yes if he wins the Hennessy!
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thread well named

[Hoof]

Nicholls


"Deserves to take his chance in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase on Friday. Three miles and a furlong is fine and we missed Cheltenham to go for this. I just hope the faster ground is OK for him."

[Old Vic]

Straight to Hennessy ?

From owners day

Rocky Creek A big, scopey chasing horse, he won last season as a novice at Doncaster, Warwick and in the Reynoldstown at Ascot. He ran at Aintree in the spring but it's not a track that really suits him, with the emphasis on speed. He might go straight for the Hennessy Gold Cup, which is a really good race for a second-season novice. There's no point running somewhere else beforehand, winning and picking up a 15lb penalty. He could end up with an entry in the Grand National. He should make a great staying chaser.

[Sefton]

later update

Unioniste 5g Dom Alco - Gleep Will John and Lisa Hales 13114-3 RPR 153c, OR 153c He had a stiff task at the weights in the Charlie Hall and looked a bit burly beforehand so I was thrilled with his run; he blew up and will improve enormously. Wetherby was a nice starting point, but let’s not forget he won his handicap off 143 and there he was against a Gold Cup winner. After he’d finished third to Dynaste at Cheltenham last November we thought he had quite a nice mark, so we took him back there the following month for the Paul Stewart Ironspine Gold Cup and he became the first four-year-old to win it. His form tailed off a bit in the spring; like a lot of French horses who come here he’d been on the go all the previous summer and was in need of a nice long break, so that’s exactly what he had. He’s entered for the Hennessy as I hope he’ll get further than 3m as he matures, but we must remember he’s only five and the Hennessy would be a tough ask for such a young horse. He mirrors Neptune Collonges and if ever there’s a future National horse in the yard, it’s him – plus Rocky Creek. He’s already achieved an awful lot and I’m sure he’ll progress as he gets stronger.

[Old Vic]

After Denman's two Hennessy wins, Paul knows all about landing the big prize at*Newbury and, in Saturday's runner Rocky Creek, he sees many similarities to that great chaser...

I have been lucky enough to land the Hennessy three times as a trainer and twice as a jockey, and my runner this year, Rocky Creek, is not unlike my dual winner Denman in appearance.

He is nearly the size of that bruiser, and as big as a tank.

In fact, let's hope that we will be calling Rocky Creek the "New Tank" just after 3pm on Saturday afternoon.

And I think that he has everything you look for in a Hennessy horse.*

The only negative is that I wish the ground was slower. I have heard some question his lack of experience in big fields, but that is often the case with second-season chasers, as so many of the novice chases cut up.*

He fits into the right rating category for the race these days - and I would hope that by the end of the season he is rated higher than his current mark of 151 - is a second-season chaser with more than a touch of class, who gallops, and jumps well in the main.

And he is fit enough, having had two racecourse gallops. And they were fair pieces of work, too, with pretty decent hurdlers. Okay, I'll tell you their names. He did separate pieces of racecourse work over 2m with Celestial Halo and Black River, and I liked what I saw.

I don't think that he will be beaten for lack of fitness. I have done as much as I possibly can have with him, bar a run.

Draw a line through his Aintree run - the ground was too quick, and so many disappoint there after a long season that I am not losing much sleep over it - and Rocky Creek has a lot going for him. The way he progressed up until then, winning the Reynoldstown, always had me thinking of this race and he has obviously had this as a long-term target.

He has done plenty of work, has schooled at least once a week for the last two months - in the indoor school and on grass - and comes here primed to run a big race.

I am confident that he will run his race - he wouldn't in the line-up if I wasn't - but whether that will be good enough we will see.

I hope and pray it is good enough because I would like nothing better than to win this race for the David Johnson and Andy Stewart families, for obvious reasons.*

There is no end of serious rivals, but if I had to pick one horse out among the opposition it would be Our Father.

I am sure that David Pipe will have him fit and firing for this race for similar reasons to me - it's a massive prize and the horse is also part-owned by the family of the late David Johnson - and first time up is the time to catch him. It wouldn't surprise me in the least were he to prove a very well-handicapped horse off 147.

In many ways, if Rocky Creek doesn't win the Hennessy, then I hope the Pipe yard, with their long association with David, will be leading the winner in tomorrow afternoon.

[Yeehaa]

2013 Hennessy Runner Up

Andy Stewart

"We can't go for the Welsh National now off 155 so we'll go for the Lexus instead.

"That will tell us where we stand with him, I think, and it should be a good race for him.

"I don't think the ground really matters to him. I know Ruby Walsh used to say he'd prefer a bog but it was perfect jumping ground on Saturday and he seemed to go all right on it.

"I think sometimes too much is made of ground conditions."

[Old Vic]

Nibbled at for Gold Cup

Nicholls

Hennessy runner-up Rocky Creek is fine after his little setback after Newbury and goes for the Argento at Cheltenham on January 25, and he will get an entry for the Gold Cup as well as the Grand National.

Rocky Creek 2014 Antepost Odds as at 10/12/2013 BetVictor Odds are NRFB Bet365 NRNB on Gold Cup
Gold Cup	25/1	25/1	25/1	33/1
Grand National	25/1	25/1	N/Q	25/1

[Old Vic]

Rocky Creek

He's still got an entry in the Grand National but he'll be going for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup. I still think he needs a bit more experience to run at Aintree and he's not exactly thrown in with 11 stone 5lb. He ran a cracking race in the Hennessy when still upsides the winner jumping the last and he had a setback after that with a little bit of colic. I think we rushed him a bit when running him in the Argento and he got a bit tired from the back of the last. I don't think I've had him as fit as he should be yet due to plenty of circumstances and he's a horse that needs plenty of work and he'll have a racecourse gallop somewhere before Cheltenham. I think he could run a big race in the Gold Cup. He beat Harry Topper at Cheltenham and that horse has shortened up but he's still 40/1. He wants good ground and he's capable of running a big race, he's a decent staying chaser and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

[Sefton]

Rocky Creek (IRE) 8-11-05

Breeding: Dr Massini (IRE) - Kissantell (IRE) (Broken Hearted)

Breeder: Colm Griffin

Born: March 28, 2006

Owner: The Johnson & Stewart Families

Trainer: Paul Nicholls

Form: /218/21113-22



*Brother to high-class Tell Massini and joined current connections after beating Rolling Aces by four lengths in an Irish point-to-point at Carrigtwohill in February, 2011.

*Scored once in three starts over hurdles, taking the Grade Two River Don Novices' Hurdle over three miles at Doncaster in January, 2012.

*Won three of his first four starts over fences, including the Grade Two Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot in February, 2013, before finishing third to Dynaste in the Grade Two Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices' Chase at the Grand National Festival.

*Found only Triolo D'Alene too strong on his seasonal reappearance in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November, beaten two and three quarter lengths.

*Second to subsequent Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup third The Giant Bolster, who was in receipt of 5lb, in the Grade Two Argento Chase at Cheltenham on January 25.

Race Record: Starts: 10; Wins: 4; 2nd: 4; 3rd: 1; Win & Place Prize Money: £118,534



The Stewart Family

The Stewart Family - Background: The Stewart Family comprises London-based husband and wife, Andy and Judy Stewart, and their two sons, Mark and Paul. The latter broke his back in a snowboarding accident in December, 2008, but has made tremendous progress to walk again and the family have sponsored several races at Cheltenham, including the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and the December Gold Cup for the benefit of Spinal Research. Andy Stewart, 62, went to Felsted School in Essex and bunked off to go point-to-pointing at Marks Tey. He would also hitchhike to Liverpool to attend the Grand National Festival. He began work aged 17 in the fixed-interest department of Simon & Coates, eventually becoming a senior partner at that stockbroking firm. He became chief executive of Chase Manhattan Securities when it took over Simon & Coates. He founded broker Collins Stewart in 1991 and was executive deputy chairman when it floated on the Stock Exchange in 2000 before leaving the business in 2003. He then founded Cenkos Securities, named after his first top-class racehorse, but resigned in 2010. Cenkos won 15 races and over £500,000 in prize money and was twice third in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Racing interests: Andy was first involved with ownership in 1986 and the family enjoyed the first of six Cheltenham Festival successes when Celestial Halo won the JCB Triumph Hurdle in 2008. Outstanding staying hurdler Big Buck's became the first horse to win four renewals of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle in 2012 and broke Sir Ken's record by winning his 17th consecutive race over jumps in the Liverpool Hurdle at the 2012 Grand National Festival. Crabbie's Grand National Record: 2007 Le Duc (UR 6th); 2008 Turko (Fell 25th), 2009 My Will (3rd); 2010 My Will (Fell 4th); 2011 Ornais (Fell 4th); 2012 Tatenen (UR 8th); 2013 Tatenen (Fell 12th)

The Johnson Family - Background: Horses owned by the late David Johnson continue to run in his famous blue and green silks under The Johnson Family following his death from cancer on July 6, 2013. David was a self-made businessman and is survived by his wife Shirley, who he married in 1968, and two children - Stephen and Lisa. A docker's son, born in 1944, from the East End of London, he began working at the Midland Bank in East Ham for £9 a week aged 16. He subsequently built up some very successful mortgage companies and established himself as one of the most innovative figures in the sector. Racing interests: David formed a formidable partnership with Martin Pipe (now retired) and then his son David. He enjoyed 13 winners at Cheltenham Festival, headlined by four successes in the Racing Post Arkle Chase (1997 Or Royal, 1998 Champleve, 2004 Well Chief & 2005 Contraband) and Our Vic's front-running success in the 2008 Ryanair Chase. Johnson captured a first owners' championship in 1997/98 and took the title again in 2001/2, 2002/3, 2003/4 and 2004/5. Comply Or Die's victory in the 2008 John Smith's Grand National helped Johnson secure a sixth leading owner title, with over £1.4 million in prize money for that 2007/8 season. Crabbie's Grand National Record (David Johnson): 1998 Challenger Du Luc (Fell 1st); 1999 Eudipe (Fell 22nd), Tamarindo (Fell 6th); 2002 Iris Bleu (Fell 5th); 2003 Iris Bleu (PU bef 16th); 2004 Lord Atterbury (3rd), Jurancon II (Fell 4th), Montreal (Fell 6th); 2005 It Takes Time (4th), Lord Atterbury (Fell 1st); 2006 Therealbandit (PU Bef 27th), It Takes Time (PU Bef 29th); 2007 Celtic Son (PU bef 22nd); 2008 COMPLY OR DIE (WON), Vodka Bleu (PU bef 19th); 2009 Comply Or Die (2nd); 2010 Comply Or Die (12th), The Package (UR 19th); 2011 Comply Or Die (PU bef 29); 2012 Swing Bill (10th); 2013 Swing Bill (6th)



Paul Nicholls (Manor Farm Stables, Ditcheat, Shepton Mallet, Somerset)

Born: April 17, 1962. Background: Started out in racing as a jump jockey and partnered 119 winners between 1980 and 1989, with his biggest British successes coming in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Broadheath (1986) and Playschool (1987). He struggled to keep his weight down and gave up race riding. Between 1989 and 1991, he was assistant trainer to David Barons, who trained Broadheath and Playschool and sent out Seagram to win the 1991 Grand National. Has been training at Manor Farm Stables in Ditcheat, Somerset, since taking out a licence on November 1, 1991. Achievements: Seven-time champion Jump trainer (2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12) and became the first handler to accrue more than £4 million in a season in 2007/08. He gained his 2,000th winner at Down Royal on November 5, 2011, less than 20 years after taking his licence, making him the fastest Jump trainer to reach the landmark figure. Has sent out 34 winners at the Cheltenham Festival, including four victories in three of the meeting's showpiece contests - the BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase (1999 Call Equiname, 2004 Azertyuiop, 2008 & 2009 Master Minded), the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup (1999 See More Business, 2007 & 2009 Kauto Star, 2008 Denman) and the Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Big Buck's 2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012). Also won the Stan James Champion Hurdle with Rock On Ruby and Crabbie's Grand National with Neptune Collonges in 2012. Crabbie's Grand National Record: 1992 Just So (6th); 1996 Vicompt De Valmont (10th), Deep Bramble (PU bef 2 out), Brackenfield (UR 19th); 1997 Straight Talk (Fell 14th); 1998 What A Hand (Fell 1st), Court Melody (Fell 6th), General Crack (PU 11th); 1999 Strong Chairman (15th), Double Thriller (Fell 1st), 2000 Earthmover (Fell 4th), Torduff Express (Fell 13th), Flaked Oats (Fell 20th), Escartefigue (UR 30th); 2001 Earthmover (Fell 4th); 2002 Murt's Man (PU bef 17th), Ad Hoc (BD 27th); 2003 Montifault (5th), Fadalko (UR 6th), Ad Hoc (UR 19th), Shotgun Willy (PU bef 22nd), Torduff Express (UR 27th); 2004 Exit To Wave (PU bef 9th); 2005 Royal Auclair (2nd), Heros Collonges (8th), L'Aventure (15th), Ad Hoc (Fell 22nd); 2006 Royal Auclair (Fell 1st), Le Roi Miguel (PU bef 19th), Cornish Rebel (PU bef 19th), Silver Birch (Fell 15th), Le Duc (UR 8th), Heros Collonges (UR 15th); 2007 Royal Auclair (Fell 9th), Le Duc (UR 6th), Eurotrek (PU bef 22nd), Thisthatandtother (PU bef 30th); 2008 Cornish Sett (12th), Mr Pointment (PU bef last), Turko (Fell 25th); 2009 My Will (3rd), Big Fella Thanks (6th), Cornish Sett (17th), Eurotrek (PU 17th); 2010 Big Fella Thanks (4th), Tricky Trickster (9th), My Will (Fell 4th), Nozic (UR 20th); 2011 Niche Market (5th), Ornais (Fell 4th), The Tother One (Fell 6th), What A Friend (PU 27th); 2012 NEPTUNE COLLONGES (WON); 2013 Join Together (12th), What A Friend (PU bef 19th), Harry The Viking (PU bef 26th).

[mayo]

Nicholls open day


He was second in the Hennessy and looked like winning when he led over the last but just faded on the run-in. He did something similar in the Argento and then ran a really tidy race in the Grand National, travelled with plenty of exuberance and led over the second-last. He tired from then but he was giving weight to the four horses that finished in front of him. He was big and weak last season and we’re trying to get him to finish his races better. He’s had a soft palate operation during the summer. He’ll start in the Hennessy with the Grand National as his big target. He looks stronger this year and he’ll be winning races