2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Chappers half term report. Not sure if he isnt getting himself in a bit of a tangle about Bobs worth. His hurdles form suggests he doesn’t lack pace, but I just wonder if he quite has the class to win a Gold Cup. He beat the reigning Champion Hurdler over smaller obstacles FFS.

It’s confusing isn’t it? That’s what many racing fans will be saying about the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup even though we are now almost half-way through the season. Be honest, have you really got a strong view on the race that you could back-up with a concrete argument? I think I have, but you may well disagree!

While I’m confident about my conclusion to this piece, it’s fair to say that with the jumps season only a third of the way through, there are already many more ifs and buts than when we started. So it’s time to look at what one could describe as a Gold Cup conundrum.

The obvious place to begin is with the 2011 Gold Cup hero LONG RUN, who was my idea of the winner of the 2013 renewal at the start of this season.

Some will say his performances since that Cheltenham defeat of Denman and Kauto Star typify the problematic nature of the outcome of jumps racing’s ultimate prize. But do they?

You see, I think the main problem with Long Run is that we expect too much from him. Because of the animals he beat at Cheltenham in March 2011 we believe he should be one of the greatest chasers of all time. He’s not that, but he’s still very good. And his consistency is worthy of a special mention; Long Run has never been out of the first three, and in 16 of his 23 races he’s been in fields of more than eight runners. That’s outstanding statistics for a chaser – and a young chaser at that.

Long Run, who will be eight next year, was rated 182 for his Gold Cup victory, and his mark remained unchanged in his four subsequent races, although he was beaten off 178 on his seasonal debut against a racefit Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 24. He’s basically remained stagnant – but his level is a fine one.

Incidentally, this piece is not one to debate the merits of Long Run’s jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. Sam is a fine amateur, but we all know – as does he and his family - he is no McCoy, Walsh or Geraghty. Long Run was bought to bring a family together. Accept it.

In my opinion, there are less questions over Long Run than many of his possible Gold Cup rivals.

BOBS WORTH is seen as the young pretender, although he is, of course, the same age as Long Run. He’s lightly raced, and open to more improvement than Long Run who as a French import started his career earlier.

Bobs Worth has First Lieutenant in his sights en-route to winning the Hennessy

Bobs Worth is a dour stayer, but does he have real class? He ground out a win in the RSA as a novice, and did the same in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on December 1. If Long Run had been in that race, though, he would have had to concede 18lb!

Bobs Worth is unbeaten in four races at Cheltenham – including a defeat of Champion Hurdle hero Rock on Ruby - which is surely a massive plus. His hurdles form suggests he doesn’t lack pace, but I just wonder if he quite has the class to win a Gold Cup. He’s hard to fault, though, and if he landed the big pot in March no-one would be surprised. You will find out more about him in Barry Geraghty’s regular ATR blog.

If the question with Bobs Worth is whether he is too slow, the quandary over FLEMENSTAR is over the distance of three and a quarter miles being too far.

Flemenstar has a point-to-point victory over three miles, but under rules he has never raced further than two and a half. He looks a fabulous prospect, and we’ll know more about him after the Lexus Chase on December 28 (3m).

My gut feeling is that Flemenstar shows too much speed to be a stayer, but people will scream Desert Orchid and Kauto Star back at me so nothing is impossible at this stage. Flemenstar is by Flemensfirth, who has produced plenty of solid stayers, including Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander. However, the sire of Flemenstar’s dam is Beau Cher, whose best offspring was Rathgar Beau. His ideal trip was two and a half miles.

Flemenstar beat SIR DES CHAMPS by five lengths when the latter returned to action in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown on December 9. It was an fair comeback for Sir des Champs, without getting one over-excited. He was rated 168 then, so needs to improve, and it’s worth remembering he landed the Jewson when rated just 148 and the Martin Pipe at the Festival over hurdles off 134. If he’s a Gold Cup winner he needs to up his game quickly.

The horse who is doing that is SILVINIACO CONTI – he won at Aintree off 154, Wetherby first time out this season off 156 and then took the Betfair Chase at Haydock off 168. Go back to his hurdles form and he stuffed Captain Chris 10 lengths once, although Grands Crus made him look ordinary in the Feltham Novices’ Chase. It’s hard to be negative about him, and the Aintree success ruled out the possibility he’s better earlier in the season than later.

The season so far:

Betfair Chase - Long Run is no match for race-fit Silviniaco Conti.
Hennessy Gold Cup - RSA Chase hero Bobs Worth makes a winning return.
John Durkan Chase - Flemenstar inflicts a first defeat on Sir Des Champs.

A trio of horses who would have prospects at their best are Grands Crus, Last Instalment and Weapon’s Amnesty.

We’ll see GRANDS CRUS in the King George, but I’ve always considered him a horse with speed so even if he won at Kempton I would not fancy him for the Gold Cup. I doubt LAST INSTALMENT is good enough, while WEAPON'S AMNESTY must overcome an injury which has ruled him out since his RSA victory in 2010. It’s impossible to think he could come back and win a Gold Cup, although the mighty Dawn Run landed the big race after missing most of a season. Few, though, do that.

One other horse worthy of mention is THE GIANT BOLSTER, who was far from disgraced in his comeback behind Silviniaco Conti and of course finished second in the 2012 Gold Cup. He’s overpriced at 33-1 for all he’s unlikely to win.

So if you are confused about the 2013 Gold Cup you won’t be alone – there are plenty of questions and the main one will be answered in the Lexus live on At The Races over Christmas, but at this stage I still see Long Run as the value.

MATT CHAPMAN'S GOLD CUP 1-2-3

1. Long Run (8/1)
2. Bobs Worth (9/2)
3. Silviniaco Conti (7/1)

Longshot: The Giant Bolster (33/1)

Click to expand...

Who tops the Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders after the King George and Lexus Chase?


Worthy favourite: Bobs Worth

PETER SCUDAMORE: I’ve probably been guilty of underestimating Bobs Worth in the past but he is a worthy favourite. He beat Lexus Chase first and second Tidal Bay and Flight Lieutenant when landing the Hennessy Gold Cup and has a perfect four-race record at Cheltenham, including wins at the last two Festivals. That’s another big plus.

MARCUS TOWNEND: Both Long Run, who probably didn’t run as well as when second to Kauto Star last year when winning the King George, and revitalised Lexus hero Tidal Bay will be suited by a testing Gold Cup but both are beatable. Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti have impressed but I still believe Sir Des Champs, especially on decent ground, can do better after finishing strongly when a close fourth in the Lexus. Trainer Willie Mullins will be trying to sharpen up his jumping before March.

Fourth place in the Lexus may have disappointed Sir Des Champs' supporters but Phil Smith believes it was a career best run.

The British Horseracing Association's Head Of Handicapping has raised the mark of Willie Mullins' chaser to a rating of 169 from 162.

Writing in his blog on the BHA's website, Smith revealed that Captain Chris had progressed in identical terms to Sir Des Champs following his narrow defeat to Long Run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton.

The winner remains on a mark of 172 - the same as Silviniaco Conti - which is just 1lb ahead of Lexus winner Tidal Bay who Smith rated as having run to the level of his Hennessy Gold Cup second.

That resulted in First Lieutenant being raised to 170 and Flemenstar remaining unchanged on 169.

Grands Crus also remained on the same mark (157) following his run on Boxing Day but Smith does believe that there's more to come from David Pipe's grey: "Grands Crus travelled like the best horse in the race for most of the way but seemed not to get home, perhaps because of the heavy ground. He looks capable of better in more optimum conditions."

Channel 4's new man Graham Cunningham

And the first is that I'll probably be bidding farewell to Long Run as a punting proposition this March.

Regulars will know I was with Nicky Henderson's gelding for the King George and his dogged rally to thwart Captain Chris sent me off for a few days in the Alps with a spring in my step.

However, it was a performance of light and shade in one of the slowest King Georges on record.

The way Long Run refused to be denied shows there is still ample fire in his belly and the fact that he was in the heat of a draining battle from so far out (reaching the fourth last nearly six seconds faster than Dynaste in the earlier Feltham only to record a final time over four seconds slower) gives a broad hint that he is better than the bare result suggests.

However, with no Kauto Star, Bobs Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof in opposition I must admit I was expecting Long Run to win by clear daylight.

Perhaps I'm being overly critical. Errors at the last two fences lost him significant momentum - and Ted Walsh ripped into Sam Waley-Cohen on RTE for failing to switch his whip hand - but overall it's hard to think Long Run hit the heights of his previous KG win (or last year's second to Kauto Star) here.

Remarkably, he's never been out of the first three in 24 races now. It will almost certainly be 25 after the Denman Chase at Newbury. And it might well be 26 after the Gold Cup.

Indeed, it's hard to understand why a horse with two King Georges and one Gold Cup on his CV attracts so little love from large sections of the media and punting public.

Perhaps it's the fact that he exposed flaws in the sainted Kauto more than once; perhaps it's his occasionally ungainly style over a fence; or perhaps it's the fact that his amateur rider doesn't fit the beau ideal of how a top rider should look in the saddle.

Graham Cunningham "Thankfully, that surprising and somewhat rash plan is now on the back burner. Flemenstar is bred to stay really well and I'm confident he will show three miles is no problem in the Irish Hennessy back at Leopardstown in February."
Graham Cunningham

Perhaps it's a blend of all three. Supporters will rightly point out this lack of love could see him go off at a bigger price than he deserves to come the Festival.

And they might have a point but, for now, the safe call is to look for one to beat Long Run come March 15th.

That one is unlikely to be KG runner-up Captain Chris, who probably isn't as good as this bare result makes him look given that he was held up and outpaced as the race took shape off the final bend.

Add in the fact that the Captain jumped to the starboard bow on his last two visits to Cheltenham and he's very easy to resist, but Leopardstown's Lexus Chase offered much more on the Gold Cup front.

History relates that Tidal Bay charged late under a demonic Ruby Walsh drive drive to thwart First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir des Champs in one of the wildest Grade 1 finishes seen in decades.

And perhaps history will show that there is precious little between the quartet, but Flemenstar is very much the one I want to focus on.

Granted, Tidal Bay crowned his resurgence for Nicholls with a superb effort having looked as if he might spit the dummy at one point, but I simply don't fancy him as a Gold Cup winner aged 12.

First Lieutenant and Sir des Champs clearly remain in the mix, but Flemenstar travelled like a horse with much more ability than all the other principals for a long way only to falter late after looking like he might win in style as he devoured the fourth last.

It was only a matter of time before he was dubbed a non stayer and for a short while it seemed he was destined to step all the way down to two miles for the Champion Chase.

Thankfully, that surprising and somewhat rash plan is now on the back burner. Flemenstar is bred to stay really well and I'm confident he will show three miles is no problem in the Irish Hennessy back at Leopardstown in February.

The Gold Cup is another step, but this hugely gifted gelding is now trading at 12-1 and bigger for his original target.

And that will look very fair if he does what I think he will do on February 9th.

Last Installment out for season

Phil Smith's half term report


THE STAYING CHASERS SO FAR THIS YEAR

Two corking finishes to the big 3m Grade 1 chases this week but the pecking order among the potential Gold Cup horses still seems a little unclear, writes Phil Smith.

I had Long Run performing to 170 at Kempton with Captain Chris on 169 improving from 162. However I have left Long Run’s rating on 172 as without two serious mistakes in the latter part of the race, I believe he would have won more easily.

Grands Crus travelled like the best horse in the race for most of the way but seemed not to get home, perhaps because of the heavy ground. He remains on 157 but looks capable of better in more optimum conditions.

Like Long Run, Silviniaco Conti is also on 172 from his win last month at Haydock. In the Betfair Chase I had Long Run performing to 168 when again he was let down by his jumping. I am sure when he puts it all together he is capable of better.

Tidal Bay put up the joint best performance of his career (171) when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. I had him on 171 after the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury earlier in the month. He is the link between the best British and Irish form. This puts First Lieutenant on 170 a step up from his third at Newbury. I have Flemenstar on 169 replicating his win in the John Durkan at Punchestown. The other big improver was Sir Des Champs who despite a few errors improved from 162 to 169.

Connections of Bobs Worth (171) must have been delighted with the performances of Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant as they confirmed the solidity of his Newbury win.

The current pecking order of the staying chasers is as follows:

Silviniaco Conti 172
Long Run 172
Bobs Worth 171
Tidal Bay 171
First Lieutenant 170
Captain Chris 169
Flemenstar 169
Sir Des Champs 169

It is too close to call and one or more of them have to make at least 3lb to 4lb improvement to be a Gold Cup winner but which one?

Just one final point about the disparaging remark Francis Casey made about the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Last year Riverside Theatre needed to run to 170 to win it. In my book Flemenstar, for all his potential, has yet to achieve that level! Since the Ryanair became a Grade 1 five years ago the average winning performance has been 168. Last year Synchronised performed to exactly 168 when winning the Gold Cup. The Ryanair is a top quality race

Official Press Release

The countdown to The Festival 2013 heats up today with the unveiling of the entries for the Grade One Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, which takes place on Gold Cup Day, Friday, March 15 and boasts a record prize fund of £550,000 (up from £500,000 in 2012).

A total of 40 entries have been received for chasing’s Blue Riband, which takes place over an extended three and a quarter miles, with Nicky Henderson responsible for five contenders. The master of Seven Barrows looks to hold a particularly strong hand as his hopefuls include Betfred’s 3/1 favourite Bobs Worth, winner of this season’s Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury and unbeaten in four outings at Cheltenham including at the last two Festivals. Henderson has also entered the 2011 scorer Long Run, who finished third in 2012 and won the King George VI Chase for a second time at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. Finian’s Rainbow, successful at The Festival last season in the Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase,
could step up in distance, while Henderson’s two other entries are last season’s Ryanair Chase scorer Riverside Theatre and Roberto Goldback.

The days of Kauto Star and Denman may now be over but reigning champion trainer Paul Nicholls still has a strong team for 2013, including Silviniaco Conti, who recorded an impressive first Grade One victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park in November and the revitalised Tidal Bay, who defeated Ireland’s best chasers in the Grade One Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on December 28. Kauto Stone, Kauto Star’s halfbrother, and What A Friend complete Nicholls’ quartet of entries.

A dozen entries hail from Ireland, including Betfred’s 5/1 second favourite Sir Des Champs. The Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old landed the Jewson Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and was a staying-on fourth behind Tidal Bay at Leopardstown. Flemenstar appeared to find three miles the limit of his stamina in the Lexus Chase, when he finished a close third to Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, but trainer Peter Casey has stated he wishes to give the eight-year-old another try at the distance in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 9 before deciding on a target at The Festival.

An intriguing entry is the Tom George-trained Mail De Bievre. The eight-year-old was a high-class performer in France, where his successes included the Grade Two Prix Murat over two miles and six furlongs in April, 2010. However, Mail De Bievre has not been seen out since finishing fourth over hurdles at the same venue in September, 2011. George said today: “Mail De Bievre has been with me for a couple of months. He came over from France a year ago and did his pre-training with Chloe Roddick before joining me. “He is a very exciting horse to have in the yard. He had an injury but touch wood hopefully he has got over that. We are just taking things one step at a time with him. So far, everything is going according to plan. “The plan is to go for the Denman Chase at Newbury with him as that looks a good place to start. You don’t know with horses until they run, but he looks right and is showing us all the right signs. Newbury will tell us where we are with him.
“His form in France is the best. I asked the handicapper just out of interest what his mark would be and they said as his last mark in France was 175, they would now rate him 160 due to the time he has been off the track.”

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup – Analysis
Nicky Henderson, the most successful trainer of all time at The Festival with 46 victories, holds a formidable hand as he looks for a second victory in chasing’s Blue Riband, the Grade One Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, at Cheltenham on Friday, March 15. The Seven Barrows handler is responsible for five of the 40 entries for the extended three and a quarter mile chase, including the 2011 winner Long Run, who was third in the race last year. On his latest start, the eight-year-old recorded a second victory in the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton on December 26 - his sixth Grade One success.
Henderson is also likely be represented by this season’s emphatic Hennessy Gold Cup victor Bobs Worth, who boasts a faultless record at Cheltenham with four wins to his name including a pair of impressive victories at The Festival in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in 2011 and the RSA Chase in 2012. Riverside Theatre and Finian’s Rainbow also struck for Henderson at last year’s Festival with victories in the Ryanair Chase and Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase respectively, while Ascot handicap chase victor Roberto Goldback also features among a powerful quintet from the Lambourn
trainer.

Paul Nicholls, who is the leading current trainer in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup with a quartet of victories to his name, has four contenders including Silviniaco Conti, who recorded a first Grade One success when comfortably beating Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. The champion trainer has also entered recent Lexus Chase winner Tidal Bay, successful in the Racing Post Arkle at The Festival in 2008, dual Grade One scorer What A Friend and Kauto Stone, a halfbrother to the brilliant dual Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup victor Kauto Star.

The splendid total of 12 Irish-trained entries includes the Willie Mullins-trained Sir Des Champs, who has yet to taste defeat in two previous visits to Cheltenham, with victories in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle in March 2011 and the Jewson Novices’ Chase 12 months later. The seven-year-old was runner-up to the Peter Casey-trained Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase on December 9 prior to coming home a close fourth behind Tidal Bay in the
Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on December 28. Mullins has also engaged last season’s Irish Hennessy Gold Cup hero Quel Esprit and leading John Smith’s Grand National contender Prince De Beauchene. Mouse Morris saddled War Of Attrition to victory in 2006 and the Tipperary handler could be represented this year by Lexus Chase runner-up First Lieutenant, who was successful in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle at The Festival in 2011 and Punchestown Grade One winner China Rock. The Henry de Bromhead-trained Sizing Europe may bid for a third Festival victory following wins in
the Racing Post Arkle Chase in 2010 and the Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2011, while Weapon’s Amnesty, whose finest hour came in the RSA Chase in 2010, could line up for Charles Byrnes. Quito De La Roque (Colm Murphy), Jessies Dream (Gordon Elliott), Bog Warrior (Tony Martin) and Joncol (Paul Nolan), who have all been successful in Grade Ones over fences, complete a strong Irish challenge.

Imperial Commander captured the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup for Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2010 but was pulled up when defending his crown on his latest start in March, 2011. The 12-year-old is set to return to action in the near future after pleasing in a racecourse gallop at Chepstow on January 5. Captain Chris scored in the Racing Post Arkle Chase at The Festival in 2011 and the Philip Hobbs-trained nine-year-old has posted two excellent efforts so far this term including when winning a Grade Two Chase at Ascot in November. On his latest start, he went down by a neck to Long Run in the
William Hill King George VI Chase, a contest that also featured Grands Crus, from the stable of David Pipe, in third and the Martin Keighley-trained Champion Court, who finished fourth. The Keiran Burke-trained Hunt Ball also boasts winning form at The Festival following a decisive victory in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap Chase last year, while The Giant Bolster, who is trained by David Bridgwater, found only Synchronised two and a quarter lengths too strong in last
season’s Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Other contenders include Bold Sir Brian, who is unbeaten in two starts this term for Lucinda Russell, Coral Welsh National first and second Monbeg Dude (Michael Scudamore) and Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis), last year’s John Smith’s Grand National runner-up Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O’Neill) and recent Sandown handicap chase winner Katenko (Venetia Williams).

Entries

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson
F13-F11 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
1114-11 BOLD SIR BRIAN (IRE) 7 Alexander Trotter Lucinda Russell
5110-P4 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 10 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
411-051 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson
U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
3122-24 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley
45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
111-113 FLEMENSTAR (IRE) 8 Stephen Curran Peter Casey IRE
1114-P3 GRANDS CRUS (FR) 8 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
41F1-P0 HEY BIG SPENDER (IRE) 10 Brocade Racing Colin Tizzard
1113-P2 HUNT BALL (IRE) 8 Anthony Knott Keiran Burke
251U/1P/- IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
30/1122/- JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
120-352 JONCOL (IRE) 10 Kay Browne Paul Nolan IRE
02FP-10 JUNIOR 10 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe
04-F021 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
20F0-1P KAUTO STONE (FR) 7 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
6P-0P13 KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE) 10 Bill Trueman George Charlton
2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
22211//4- MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR) 8 Patrick Atkinson Tom George
13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore
351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
F1113-0 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
113-336 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
21/11P-6 RIVERSIDE THEATRE 9 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
000-1U3 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 11 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson
1241-11 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
1111-24 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
121-111 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 11 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
0P012-5 SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis
2142-3P THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
541-121 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 12 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
P40P-21 WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott
F1221//-P WEAPON'S AMNESTY (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE
4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater

Timeform Tipping


At this stage, only nine weeks away from Cheltenham, I'd rather back something with improvement to be made in its jumping than in ability or stamina, and it's not a deep-rooted problem with Sir des Champs - if anything his jumping was the feature of his Jewson win at last year's Festival. On the back of that deconstruction of Champion Court and For Non Stop, Sir des Champs was understandably made favourite for the Gold Cup, since when he's won a Grade 1 at Punchestown, finished second to a race-fit Flemenstar over Flemenstar's trip there, and been beaten under a length, despite the worst round of jumping, in the best renewal of the Lexus for years. Sorry, the thrilling Lexus.

Furthermore, Sir des Champs has so far looked most impressive when the going hasn't been so testing as he's faced this season, and my Hawk-Eye weather predictor forecasts better days and better ground ahead in time for Cheltenham.

Pointed at the Gold Cup in March, following the career trajectory of each of the main contenders, the prototype Racing Hawk-Eye tells me that, statistically speaking, Bobs Worth is the most likely winner (and, while we're here, that Silviniaco Conti won't stay, that Long Run won't cope with a better lot than in the King George, and that Flemenstar won't even turn up), but Bobs Worth isn't quite so compelling as to get involved at 4.3, likely to be at least that price on the day, on the assumption that he's unlikely to strengthen his claims by winning the Argento Chase at odds-on.

Sir des Champs, on the other hand, will be shorter than 6.4 if he puts it all together in the Irish Hennessy in February. Some will say that his reputation has already been lost, but what got lost more, in amongst the drama of the complexion-changing finish, was his promise in the Lexus. Eye-catching. Hawk-Eye-catching.

Recommendation:
Back Sir des Champs @ 6.4 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

All the tipping momentum seems to be with SDC starbets

Friday – Gold Cup: SIR DES CHAMPS (5-1 general)
I marked Sir Des Champs down as the likely winner of the 2013 Gold Cup when he was so impressive in winning the Jewson Chase at last year’s Festival, and despite losing his two races this season, I have seen nothing to change my mind so far.

The gelding looks to have been trained by Willie Mullins this year with just this one race in mind, and we know he handles Cheltenham well having not only won last year, but also over hurdles in the 2011 Festival.

In need of the run behind Flemenstar at Punchestown (when also unsuited by heavy ground and the right-handed track), he only went down narrowly in the thrilling Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last month. He was undone for the first time by a poor round of jumping, but he was ridden with more restraint than usual by Davy Russell to ensure he stayed the trip. He clearly did see out the 3m well and will be ridden more prominently at Cheltenham, which should help him get into a better rhythm. The likely better ground is sure to be a plus too.

- Age: Old horses don’t win the Gold Cup. In fact, the last horse older than ten to win was What A Myth in 1969. Tidal Bay is twelve now and, whilst his Lexus win is solid, there are reasons to believe he’ll not finish in front of all of the beasts he bested there at Cheltenham. At the other end of the spectrum, although Long Run won as a six-year-old in 2011, you’d have to go back to Mill House in 1963 to find the previous horse of that age to prevail.

In essence, we need a horse aged seven to ten, and probably only seven to nine year olds need apply.

- Official Rating: In the last fifteen years, four horses have won without a rating (from 67 to try). The remaining eleven winners were rated at least 166. This counts against the likes of The Giant Bolster, Kauto Stone, What A Friend, Grands Crus and Hunt Ball amongst plenty of others.

- Days since a run: Of those same fifteen winners, *all had run between one and three months ago, with no fewer than ten Gold Cup winners having had between two and three months off the track. So, don’t fear a layoff of 60 to 90 days.

- Odds rank: Twelve of the last fifteen Cheltenham Gold Cup winners came from the first three in the betting. So this probably isn’t a race in which to get carried away with a long shot. Saying that, the other three winners were 16/1, 25/1, and 20/1 (but none was in the last dozen years).

- Last time out: Nine of the last fifteen Gold Cup winners also won on their prior start. Another three were second or third. One fell (Mr Mulligan), one pulled up (Cool Dawn), and one was fifth (Imperial Commander). All three of those unplaced last time out had been first or second at a previous Cheltenham Festival. Unsurprisingly, we’d be looking for a podium finisher last time, or a horse with proven Festival form.

RACE TRENDS:
12 of the last 15 winners had been placed at the festival before
10 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers
12 of the last 13 winners had all won a race that season
The last 12 winners were in the front three in the betting
11 horses priced 33/1 and bigger have been placed since 1997
73 of 75 horses beaten in the race before since 1994 have been beaten again. The only exceptions are Kauto Star (once) and a carried-out See More Business
17 of the last 19 winners were aged between seven and nine
No horse older than ten has won since 1969
Only one horse since 1963 (Dawn Run) has won with less than six runs over fences

Kudos to Bobby Dazler on betfair forum the wild card ....


Mail De Bievre

Cadoudal (FR) – Coyote Davis (IRE) (Kaldoun (FR)

Tall (16’ 2’) well made bay gelding, excellent jumper of fences.* Half brother to Sourceror (by Sleeping Car) who is owned by Gigginstown and was trained by Arthur Moore (last run Gordon Elliot), who won an Irish point and is rated 126 over hurdles and 121 over fences in Ireland.

He was bought by Highflyer for E26,000 at the Aqana sales in October 2006 as a yearling, and was sent back to the sales in July 2007 where he was unsold.
He first appeared on a track in the UK for his current owners when he won a modest 1m 5f Junior bumper at Exeter in December 2008 for Alan King. He was well regarded by the trainer as a bumper prospect, but regressed in two subsequent bumpers (4th at Doncaster beaten 2 ¼ lengths and 7th at Uttoxeter beaten 24 lengths). Took a keen hold on his second and third start which appeared to cost him in the latter stages of the races.

Returned to France to compete in four year old chases where he was trained by J. Bertan de Balanda* *and looked to have improved for fences finishing second on his debut to the highly regarded Rubi Ball (beaten 2 lengths receiving 7lbs). His first race as a 5-y-o confirmed the improvement when he beatn by 3 lengths by Doumaja (conceding 3lbs). He reversed that form a few weeks leader beating the same opponent by 15 lengths (receiving 5lb) to win the Prix Troytown.

The third horse Or Noir De Somoza was a further 3 lengths back in third, giving Mail De Bievre 9lbs, and was subsequently sent to David Pipe who stated at the time he was there to be trained for the Gold Cup or Ryanair. Or Noir De Somoza was awarded a mark of 155 and started his career in the UK in the Grand National where he fell at Beechers on the first circuit. He was well beaten in the Irish National off 152, and in a listed chase back in France, and finished the 2011 season (after two runs over hurdles off 136), being beaten by 48 lengths in the Welsh National off a mark of 136.

Mail De Bievre completed his chase record to date winning the Prix Murat in impressive fashion, with* Or Noir De Somoza in 5th beaten 15 lengths conceeding 6lbs.
He has not raced since April 2010 having developed a hole in a tendon. He has continued to exhibit signs of keenness over fences, with the result that his wins have come when running from the front. All of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground, he has only ever jumped fences at Auteuil. He has won £216,000 over fences in France.

It is anyone’s guess what a mark of 175 over fences in France equates to in the UK, but I would personally equate it to no more than 145 – 150 which would leave him 25lbs of winning a moderate Gold Cup (which this may well be).

Donn on a few of them

There were several other interesting inclusions among the Gold Cup entries published during the week.* Here are five.

Prince De Beauchene: He is probably more of a Grand National horse than a Gold Cup horse, but his trainer Willie Mullins sent out Hedgehunter to finish second in the Gold Cup 11 and a half months after he had won one Grand National and three weeks before he finished second in another, so why not?

Bold Sir Brian: Lucinda Russell’s horse looks way out of his depth at first glance, but he jumps well, he stays well, and he is seriously progressive.* He does have almost 20lb to find with the top ones on official ratings, but he is so progressive that his entry may not be the greatest waste of money in the world.

Mail De Bievre: Winner of a bumper for Alan King on his racecourse debut in 2008, he has been plying his trade in France most recently, with his record over fences there reading 1222211.* His most recent chase win was achieved in a Grade 2 contest in which he had Princess D’Anjou and Or Noir De Somoza behind.* He hasn’t run since September 2011, but he is obviously showing current trainer Tom George enough at home to persuade him to give him a Gold Cup entry.

Monbeg Dude: Who ever heard of a Welsh National winner winning a Gold Cup?

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WORTH A FEW BOB? Barry Geraghty and Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth
By Sean Goff | Cheltenham 2013

The scene is set for one of the most open Gold Cups in history but the Paddy Power Blog team have spent a few hours on the doss *gone through the form with a fine-tooth comb to help you narrow*down the likely winner. There’s about seven weeks to the Blue Riband of jumps racing with a few key trails – namely the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 9 and the Argento Chase still to be run.*The past 10 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold Cup is a boffins’ wet dream and there are some stand-out bookie-bashing stats to help you identify the winner.

And if all the main players in the 2013 Gold Cup on March 15 cast turn up we’re in for an absolute belter.

1. Form is temporary – class is permanent

All 10 winners of jumps racing’s most-prized crown went into the race with an official rating of 166. That’s the ‘mark’ that the National Hunt handicappers have awarded the contenders based on their performances.

Not what they might do, not what you hope they’ll do or not what your sister’s boyfriend’s mate who use to work in the bookies thinks they’ll do. What they’ve done in front of your very eyes all season.

Just over seven weeks out Bobs Worth, *Long Run, Captain Chris, Silviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay, Finian’s Rainbow, Riverside Theatre can be included in any long-list while Irish challengers*Sir Des Champs (166) and*Flemenstar (173) are in the frame too.*First Lieutenant is officially rated 159 but there is an argument that he has achieved more than this bare form figure. If he runs again he can prove it but trainer Mouse Morris intends to send him straight to the Festival.

While Flemenstar, Captain Chris, Riverside Theatre and Finian’s Rainbow are all Grade One winners, they have yet to win a top-tier race over 3m and when push comes to more push up Cleeve Hill you need to be confident your selection will stay the 3m 2f trip.

2. It’s all very odds

If you don’t fancy wading through the ground, the distance, the quality of race mumbo-jumbo then this stat should make you take notice. All 10 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup since 2002 have started in the first three in the betting.* The result of the*Irish Hennessy*at Leopardstown where*Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are 6/4 joint favourites with Paddy Power*could have a major impact on the market – particularly if Peter Casey’s runner does what he threatened to do in the Lexus Chase and bolts in.

The weight of patriotic euros would see him shorten even further than his current 10/1 quote and he was put up by the Racing Post’s Pricewise a couple of weeks ago as his Gold Cup selection. But if Willie Mullins’*Sir Des Champs gets his jumping together and outstays him on the run to the line connections may re-think Gold Cup plans. We’ll know at 3.30pm in four weeks time.

3. Act your age

As a six-year-old Long Run became the youngest winner of the Gold Cup – since Mill House (1963) – when seeing off Kauto Star in 2011. Cool Dawn was the last 10-year-old to win it in 1998.

Since then all winners bar Long Run have been aged between seven and nine. *Crucially, that stat rules out Paul Nicholls’ evergreen Tidal Bay - who won a thrilling Lexus Chase over Christmas – from getting his head in front at the line.


A STAR IS BORN: Hennessy Gold Cup date for Flemenstar
4. Horses for courses

The 3m 2f trip of the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes unique demands on the runners and riders and a previous run at the track – preferably a winning run – has been a big factor in recent years.

Synchronised turned that stat on its head a little last year (previous best at Cheltenham was sixth in a handicap hurdle in 2010) but this year’s ante-post favourite Bobs Worth is unbeaten in four starts at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson’s charge won the 3m Grade One RSA Chase last season from First Lieutenant by two and a half lengths.

All of the main English contenders of Bobs Worth (four wins), Long Run (2011 GC winner) , Captain Chris (2011 Arkle winner), Silviniaco Conti (3rd International Hurdle 2010) *Tidal Bay (Arkle winner 2008!) , Finian’s Rainbow (2012 Champion Chase winner) and Riverside Theatre (Ryanair Chase winner 2012)*have course form to some degree over jumps or hurdles at the track.

Irish challengers Sir Des Champs (Jewson Chase winner 2012) is a dual winner there and First Lieutenant (2011 Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle winner) was second in the RSA Chase last season. Only Flemenstar – who has never run in the UK – is without a previous Cheltenham run.

5. Big race pointers

The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and the King George VI Chase at Kempton have been key trials to finding the Gold Cup winner over the past decade with the winner having run – but not necessarily won – either race.

Only Imperial Commander who won 2010 Gold Cup*who was unplaced in 2009 King George, Best Mate 2002 Gold Cup winner was second*in the King George four months earlier and War of Attrition 2006 Gold Cup,*second in the 2005 Lexus break the winning trend.

This doesn’t rule out First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs*out of contention who finished in a bunch behind Tidal Bay in the Lexus and Captain Chris who narrowly went down to Long Run in the King George.

All are Grade One chase winners – although Flemenstar and First Lieutenant have yet to win a Grade One chase over 3m.

Conclusion

The improving Bobs Worth deserves his place at the top of the market and seems to just do enough to get his head in front. His form in winning the RSA Chase and Hennessy Gold Cup has a solid look to it and has been franked by First Lieutenant*and Tidal Bay in the Lexus.

Crucially, Barry Geraghty’s mount has proved himself on softer ground and if anything, should improve on better spring going. While only two RSA Chase winners *(Looks Like Trouble 1999, Denman 2007)*from the last 15 have collected Gold the following season – Bobs Worth taking win in the Hennessy and record at Cheltenham makes him the one they all have to beat.

Silviniaco Conti is improving and the Paul Nicholls / Ruby Walsh partnership have won four of the last 10 renewals with Kauto Star and Denman and has done everything asked of him in winning the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase (beating Long Run) . *He may head straight to Cheltenham.

Mouse Morris provided the last Irish-trained Gold Cup winner in War of Attrition in 2006.*First Lieutenant – in the same Gigginstown House colours – will follow the same path and could improve again on better ground. His course record and form this season is a big plus and could possibly be the forgotten horse of the race come Gold Cup day. Ranks a cracking each-way bet.

Something has to give between Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar in the Hennessy but a close-run race could see them both line up on March 15.

Verdict

Bobs Worth to make it five wins from five but First Lieutenant to push him all the way. *Henderson can complete the placings with Long Run under Sam-we

Jockey Aidan Coleman believes Katenko has the capability to make an impression in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.
On just his third outing since joining trainer Venetia Williams from France, Coleman helped the gelding to an impressive victory in a handicap chase at Sandown on 5 January.
He was entered in the abandoned Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock this weekend and Coleman believes he could appear at one of the forthcoming big Saturday cards instead.
"Hopefully I will be part of the Gold Cup, too," Coleman told his Racing UK blog.
"The owner of Katenko is keen to go that route and if he keeps improving the way he has so far in his three races in the UK, he could be a live outsider.
"I do genuinely think he could be a Grand National horse as he ticks all the boxes, so perhaps he might line up at Aintree next year, but there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge first.
"He was entered at Haydock, although was never going to run - even before it was called off - and I guess he might run at Cheltenham at the end of the month or Newbury in February - we'll have to see what Venetia has planned."

Bobs Worth straight to Gold Cup after a bad scope. Last run was in Hennessy on December 1st. The last horse to go there and win without a run on or after Boxing Day was Garrison Savannah he had his prep run on 12th December :

Race Result Haydock Wed, 12th Dec, 1990

TOMMY WHITTLE STEEPLE CHASE 5-y-o plus

3m. Chase 6 Ran
1st Celtic Shot 11-2 SP 1/2fav GMcCourt
2nd Garrison Savannah 11-4 (Blinkers) SP 12/1 Mrs J Pitman MPitman

So it is more than 22 years since a horse won the Gold Cup off a break as long as the one Bobs Worth will have.

Anyone know of a horse than won the Gold Cup with a LTO run in November or earlier !

My stats only go back 25 years and will be biggest break in that time if Bobs Worth Wins.

going by statto post above Dawn Run the only winner in last 50 years who has had less than 6 runs over fences. Bobs has had 5.

Blog of the Week

http://aaowen.wordpress.com/2013/01/09/gold-cup-ramblings/

This year’s Gold Cup at this stage looks like one of the most complicated to unravel for years. Lots of the form of the principles is interwoven and the four main pieces of form so far this season are the Betfair Chase, the Hennessy, the King George and the Lexus. Given the accumulation of evidence from these four races I’ve attempted to allocate ratings which make sense given all the collateral form as follows;

Betfair Chase

174+ Silviniaco Conti
170 Long Run

Plenty has been said about the tactics employed on Long Run in this race, and while he does look like he wants a real test these days, he jumped better here that he had for a long time, but despite that was readily dismissed by an unexposed chaser who was admittedly race fit from a win in the Charlie Hall. Silviniaco Conti on this running can be rated a good 4lb better than Long Run but he’s yet to show any chase form on a non-flat track.

Hennessy

170+ Bobs Worth
169 Tidal Bay
159+ First Lieutenant

I’m happy that Bobs Worth ran around 10lb better than his mark in winning this race, as I don’t think it was a particularly strong Hennessy, but obviously he’s open to improvement being his first run of the season. Tidal Bay gets more or less the same mark giving him weight and First Lieutenant ran to his handicap mark although he could be rated slightly higher as he forced the pace, made a couple of mistakes and would not have liked the ground.

King George

170 Long Run
169 Captain Chris

I’ve given Long Run the same rating as he achieved in the Betfair Chase, since while he was probably fitter here and the race suited him better, he made more jumping mistakes and it’s unlikely his overall performance was superior to the Betfair Chase. It still rates a career best for Captain Chris who seems to have got his act together this season and is unexposed at the trip.

Lexus

169 Tidal Bay
168+ First Lieutenant
173? Flemenstar
168+ Sir Des Champs

Obviously there’s very little between these four on the running of this particular race, but Flemenstar on this evidence was clearly the best horse in the race and rated as so, notwithstanding the fact he didn’t get the trip on this occasion. I’ve given Tidal Bay the same rating as his Hennessy run as he’s now a fairly solid performer, which means you have to assume First Lieutenant ran a lot better than in the Hennessy, perhaps due to a more sensible ride. It’s possible though that First Lieutenant holds the form of this race down somewhat, as this was by some way his best ‘winter’ effort. Sir Des Champs can obviously improve if he jumps better and First Lieutenant should improve for better ground as he always does.

The Lexus/Hennessy form is rather separate to the King George/Betfair form, and there’s little recent collateral form to confirm the relationship of ratings between the two, which in rank order are as follows;

174+ Silviniaco Conti
173? Flemenstar
170+ Bob’s Worth
170 Long Run
169 Captain Chris
169 Tidal Bay
168+ First Lieutenant
168+ Sir Des Champs

There is however one horse which you can tenuously use to reaffirm the above ratings, and that horse is Champion Court. He finished 2nd to Sir Des Champs at Cheltenham and 2nd to Silviniaco Conti at Aintree, albeit over different trips. He had 7 chase runs last season and as a 7yo in 2012 was arguably more exposed than both of the aforementioned horses (both 6yos) and rates a solid 161 horse. He confirmed this view in coming second to a very well handicapped horse at Ascot and ran a screamer in the KG when not staying the trip, but fully justifying a rating of around 161. Whilst these things are never an exact science, I do think he’s quite a solid marker, and it fits neatly that Sir Des Champs gave him, say, a 7lb beating at Cheltenham and Silviniaco Conti a 13lb beating at Aintree, leading nicely to their ratings above of 168 and 174 respectively.

Another piece of form from last year’s festival that is particularly relevant is the RSA, where Bobs Worth saw off First Lieutenant. On that form Bobs Worth is around 2lb better than First Lieutenant, and again that is confirmed by their 170/168 ratings I’ve given them above.

So as things stand, nothing from the Hennessy or Lexus stands out from the others on the bare form, but various assumptions are made as to who will improve the most come Cheltenham. At the age of 12 it is unlikely Tidal Bay is going to improve, but under ideal conditions he could replicate his 169 performance. That’s not likely to be enough to win a Gold Cup though and he’s dismissed. Sir Des Champs clearly would have gone close in the Lexus without making mistakes, but there will be fences in the Gold Cup too and you don’t really want to be backing something at 5/1 hoping their jumping will improve come the big day. It may well do, but it’ll have to as at the moment I have him bottom rated of the 8 main contenders and I think he’s a lay at 6.4. First Lieutenant is an interesting one as he’s never really put in top class performances during the winter (either due to ground, or due to trainer peaking him in the spring) as the following shows;

Average RPRs ‘winter’ of 2010/11: 129
RPR at 2011 Cheltenham Festival: 151

Average RPRs ‘winter’ of 2011/12: 145
RPR at 2012 Cheltenham Festival: 164

Average RPRs ‘winter’ of 2012/13: 161
RPR at 2013 Cheltenham Festival: ?

The improvement shown from his average winter performances to his performance on better ground at Cheltenham each year are pretty remarkable. If his trainer has been taking the same approach with him this season and puts him away until the festival, then come March on good ground I don’t think a 175 performance is out of the question and with course form of 1st and 2nd I think he rates a really solid each way bet at 12/1 (NRNB with Totesport).

While First Lieutenant is of course somewhat held by Bob’s Worth on their RSA running, I don’t think it’s impossible he can reverse that form. He was quite keen in the RSA and was only worried out of it near the end. Bob’s Worth sounds like he was a nightmare to train and get right last season after his win at Newbury and I just wonder if they might experience the same problem again. Another nag with this horse is that the Henderson yard are not shy of hyping their horses yet Bob’s Worth has never been a real talking horse. Perhaps that’s more to do with his unflashy style of getting things done, or perhaps it’s because he isn’t a superstar. With the possibility of Henderson leaving a bit to work on and him underperforming in the Argento, coupled with the doubts above, I think he’s a lay at around 4.3.

Two horses who could still be superstars, and on a different level to the rest, are Flemenstar and Silviniaco Conti, who I currently have rated 173? And 174+, the question mark relating to the trip. Flemenstar travelled like he was easily the best horse in the Lexus but failed to see out the trip, albeit only being beaten half a length. It was still an excellent first attempt at the trip, and for those doubting that first impressions can be misleading, see Kicking King’s first attempt at 3 miles. I think if he can learn to settle a bit better and gets slightly better ground at the festival then he can stay the Gold Cup trip. Flemenstar will attempt 3 miles for a second time in the Irish Hennessy and if he beats Sir Des Champs there as many expect him to then he’ll halve in price for the big race, so I think the 9/1 NRNB with Totesport makes some appeal (despite 12/1 being available a few days ago). If he doesn’t get the trip at the second attempt then he won’t run in the Gold Cup and there’s no harm done.

This leaves Silviniaco Conti. I had been against the horse at the start of the season as end of season Aintree form doesn’t always stack up, but his performances at Weatherby and Haydock (and the subsequent efforts of Champion Court) make it difficult not to rate him the best of what we’ve seen so far, and he is hugely unexposed having supposedly not been right all last winter, per his trainer. He jumped superbly at Haydock and never looked like being beaten. They didn’t go much of a gallop early on, but the way Weird Al finished the race having looked completely out of it, means it must have been a fair test of stamina overall, contrary to the general consensus. Another positive is that while most of the Gold Cup contenders have had reasonably tough races at one point or another this season, Silviniaco Conti has not, and will be one of the freshest on the day. Two that particularly fall into this category are Long Run and Captain Chris who battled out a gruelling King George. The former I find it difficult to make much better than 170, and while he’s still making jumping mistakes he can’t be backed with confidence and there should be a couple better equipped than him come March. Captain Chris’s performance there was admirable and he appears to have sorted out his jumping issues. He is unexposed at the trip, is an Arkle winner and it sounds like they are intent on going for the Gold Cup so if he drifts to 40/1 at some point he would probably be worth a small bet.