Cheltenham Fri The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2

[Guest]

This one looks a cracker too:

Dodging Bullets, My Tent or Yours, Tominator, River Maigue


NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
2 246-1 Dodging Bullets27 4 11-7 Paul Nicholls67 150 129 157
5 11081 Run With The Wind33F 6 11-7 Michael Hourigan13 135 128 145
4 122-1 My Tent Or Yours13 5 11-7 Nicky Henderson50 — 122 137
12 33-2 Buy Back Bob35F 5 11-0 A J Martin64 120 107 137
3 24-113 Magic Spear58 6 11-7 C A Murphy100 127 115 136
1 1214-1 Court Minstrel28 5 11-7 Evan Williams40 Paul Moloney — 102 134
7 11 Close Touch21 4 11-4 Nicky Henderson50 — 81 130
9 2119-1 Hold Court22 5 11-4 Evan Williams40 — 115 130
11 1 Tominator18 5 11-4 Jonjo O´Neill50 — 70 130
6 44221U Ted Dolly53 8 11-7 Edward U Hales 128 112 126
13 008-8 Military Bowl13 4 11-0 A J Martin64 — 99 124
8 23-1 Duke Of Navan21 4 11-4 Nicky Richards57 — 12 120
10 140-31 Ifandbutwhynot21 6 11-4 David O´Meara — 99 113
14 131- River Maigue209 5 11-0 Nicky Henderson50 — — —

[Old Vic]

Graded races in Big Race section please.

[mayo]

Close touch is in there too http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...ht=Close+touch

[Statto]

14:25 – Opus Energy Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y CH4

9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
8/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Had a recent run over hurdles
7/10 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 Supreme, 1 Champion Hurdle, 1 County Hurdle)
7/10 – Had never raced at Cheltenham before
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Had run between 1-3 times over hurdles
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Came from the top three in the betting
5/10 – Went onto run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (4 unplaced)
4/10 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

[mayo]

Quality Nicholls vs Henderson clash with Tominator and couple of Irish raiders


HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 1214-1 Court Minstrel28 5 11-7 Evan Williams56 Paul Moloney — 102 134
2 246-1 Dodging Bullets27 4 11-7 Paul Nicholls74 R Walsh 150 129 157
3 24-113 Magic Spear58 6 11-7 C A Murphy67 Robbie Power 127 115 136
4 11081 Run With The Wind33F 6 11-7 Michael Hourigan38 Timmy Murphy 135 128 145
5 44221U Ted Dolly53 8 11-7 Edward U Hales Robert Thornton 128 112 126
6 23-1 Duke Of Navan21 4 11-4 Nicky Richards44 Davy Russell — 12 120
7 1 Tominator18 5 11-4 Jonjo O´Neill39 A P McCoy — 70 130
8 131- River Maigue209 5 11-0 Nicky Henderson45 Barry Geraghty — — —

[Sprinter]

Dual bumper winner Court Minstrel made a successful debut over the course and distance recently, but the five-year-old has much more on his plate, according to his trainer Evan Williams.

"He won an ordinary enough maiden hurdle by Cheltenham standards in my opinion," said the Llancarfan handler.

"He's got a lot more on his plate tomorrow, that's for sure. He's in good form, I can't ask for more on that score, but it's a massive step up in class."

[Yeehaa]

14.25 Opus Energy Novices' Hurdle

This is normally won by a very smart novice and this year should prove no exception. Tominator, a useful staying handicapper on the Flat, wasn't foot-perfect on his hurdles bow at Bangor but won with any amount in hand and can only improve.

Court Minstrel had useful form in bumpers and beat a decent field here on his hurdles bow while Duke Of Navan won by 10 lengths at Newcastle, though was no match for River Maigue in a bumper at Ayr in April. Nicky Henderson's charge should be worth following as he gains experience and the Irish have sent over a strong team with Magic Spear, Run With The Wind and Ted Dolly all recent winners at a fair level.

The fact that DODGING BULLETS failed to win in his first season may turn out to be a blessing in disguise as it means he's still eligible for races like this. He took a while to master the race-fit Hi Note and get off the mark here last time but will improve hugely for that run and can put a marker down here.

[mayo]

Geegeez preview...If betting in this race Paddy Power money back offer if Ruby wins a big bonus[

QUOTE]The young guns have dominated this in recent seasons, with all bar Emma Lavelle’s Self Defense being four or five years old. On that basis, I’m going to overlook the chances of Irish trio Ted Dolly, Magic Spear and Run With The Wind, which will leave me with five on which to focus.

Let’s start with the five year old hurdling débutante, River Maigue. Trained by Nicky Henderson, whose record in this race is a surprisingly poor 0/3 in recent seasons, this cheaply bought son of Zagreb doesn’t have the look of a world beater. Of course, time may show that statement to be folly, but on the evidence available – wins in a maiden point and a moderate Ayr bumper – he has a steep hill, if not a mountain, to climb to match the level of form presented to the race by Dodging Bullets.

Dodging Bullets is still a four year old, and has top class hurdle form. After a début second in the Grade 2 Dovecote Hurdle at Kempton, he ran a gallant fourth of twenty in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, before a slightly flatter mid-pack run in the Aintree equivalent. He was entitled to have been feeling the strain of the Cheltenham run and it’s also possible that he needs a sterner test than Aintree’s literal level playing field.

A month ago, on his seasonal return, he cruised home over course and distance in a little conditions hurdle. The form may not amount to much – although Racing Post has it as his best run to date – but it was a pleasing enough first run of the term. Bound to come on for it, he looks the one to beat.

The Irish have won two of the last three renewals of this race, and of their trio of entries for the 2012 edition – age notwithstanding – Magic Spear may be of most interest. Not beaten far in heavy ground last time, when the winner probably stole the race from the front, he was progressive at this trip beforehand, winning a bumper and a maiden hurdle.

He’d probably want a reasonable pace here, and that’s far from certain, but with just five career starts, there is plenty of scope for improvement on an already reasonable level of form.

Court Minstrel is interesting for the Evan Williams yard. He followed up a promising bumper career (culminating in a fourth place in a Grade 2 at Aintree) with a tidy win at the first attempt over hurdles, over course and distance. Whilst he has a lot to do to beat Dodging Bullets, he’s definitely on the upgrade, and ought to run well.

Duke Of Navan represents the mostly regressive Nicky Richards stable. Richards, a pale shadow of his father in training terms, has had very little success in recent years, though this term has thus far represented something of a renaissance. Indeed, the stable has had 27 winners from 144 runners this year, at an impressive 19% clip.

Nevertheless, on form, Duke of Navan has plenty on, and was beaten sixteen lengths by River Maigue in the aforementioned Ayr bumper. He has since won a Newcastle novice hurdle in good style, but that’s as far away from the pick of the form in this race as… well, as Newcastle is geographically from Cheltenham.

The one I’ve yet to mention, and perhaps the darkest beast in the field, is Jonjo’s Tominator. This five year old was rated 100 on the flat, and won a Listed handicap as recently as the start of September. Clearly, it’s not a given that he will transfer his smart flat form – third in the Cesarewitch on his first start for Jonjo after switching from Reg Hollinshead’s – to timber, but a twelve length winning margin on his first attempt gives hope.

Forgivably, Tominator was novice-y on that first hurdle run, and will need greater fluency here, but he does promise to take quite high rank in the novice division this season, and might be an interesting one for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival, for which he’s a best priced 20/1 (Coral) currently.

Selection: Dodging Bullets 11/8 general[/QUOTE]
Interesting alternative: Tominator 9/2 bet365