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Most Likely Winners

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  • Most Likely Winners

    The Fat Jockey Forum Most Likely Winners......


    Supreme
    Klassical Dream 45%
    Al Dancer 3%
    Angels Breath 29%
    Aramon 3%
    Elixir De Nutz 6%
    Champagne Platinum 3%
    Fakir D'Oudaries 3%
    Mister Fisher 6%
    Arkle
    Cilaos Emery 45%
    Le Richebourg 42%
    Hardline 3%
    Lalor 10%
    Champion Hurdle
    Apples Jade 45%
    Buveur D'Air 34%
    Laurina 10%
    Sharjah 7%
    Melon 3%
    Mares Hurdle
    Benie Des Dieux 82%
    Laurina 18%
    NHC
    Ballyward 19%
    Discorama 6%
    Ok Corral 74%
    Ballymore
    Battleoverdoyen 43%
    Brewinupastorm 7%
    Aramon 3%
    Klassical Dream 3%
    Champ 43%
    RSA
    Delta Work 47%
    Santini 40%
    Topofthegame 13%
    QMCC
    Altior 97%
    Min 3%
    Cross Country
    Tiger Roll 89%
    Mall Dini 4%
    Josies Orders 4%
    Auvergnat 4%
    Bumper
    Andy Dufresne 25%
    Blue Sari 29%
    Envoi Allen 17%
    Ask For Glory 4%
    Thyme Hill 4%
    Eden De Houx 4%
    Blackbow 4%
    Master Debonair 13%
    JLT
    Camelia de Cotte 3%
    Champagne Classic 14%
    DDS 45%
    Lostintranslation 24%
    Drovers Lane 3%
    Real Steel 7%
    Voix Du Reve 3%
    Ryanair
    Min 45%
    Aso 7%
    Top Notch 3%
    Waiting Patiently 10%
    Al Boum Photo 3%
    Monalee 31%
    Stayers Hurdle
    Paisley Park 39%
    Faugheen 3%
    Penhill 55%
    Samcro 3%
    Mares Novice
    Salsaretta 13%
    Honeysuckle 20%
    Epatante 27%
    Ellusive Belle 13%
    Emily Moon 7%
    Sinoria 7%
    Chante Niege 7%
    Buildmeupbuttercup 7%
    Triumph
    Sir Erec 64%
    Quel Destin 7%
    PDO 25%
    Carlo Biraghi 4%
    Albert Bartlett
    Rockpoint 10%
    Rhinestone 3%
    Kateson 21%
    Birchdale 10%
    Champ 3%
    Commander of Fleet 31%
    Dickie Diver 7%
    Dinons 3%
    Lisnagar Oscar 3%
    Easy Game 7%
    Gold Cup
    Kemboy 14%
    Al Boum Photo 7%
    Presenting Percy 72%
    Clan Des Obeaux 7%
    Foxhunters
    Caid Du Berlais 16%
    Fennos Storm 12%
    Gilgamboa 12%
    Hazel Hill 16%
    Pacha du Polder 12%
    Stand Up And Fight 32%

    **** I do not guarantee the statistical accuracy of these results ****



    We've seen 99% of the form, plans are mostly set, time to nail colours to the mast.


    So ignoring current odds and assuming normal Cheltenham ground, what are your MLWs? (non-handicap)


    Supreme: Klassical Dream
    Arkle: Le Richeburg
    Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
    Mares: Laurina
    NHC: Ballyward
    Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
    RSA: Delta Work
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Mall Dini
    Champion Bumper: Blue Sari
    JLT: Lostintranslation
    Ryanair: Monalee
    Stayers: Paisley Park
    Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Albert Bartlett: Kateson
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Hazel Hill


    That gives the following trainer tally:
    Mullins - 4
    Elliot - 3
    Joseph O'Brien - 2
    HDB - 2
    Patrick Kelly - 2
    Henderson - 1
    Tizzard - 1
    Philip Rowley - 1
    Tom Lacey - 1
    Emma Lavelle - 1

    Interestingly I don't have one for Nicholls, although I expect him to do well (Topofthegame, Pic D'Orhy et al. have great chances). I was also surprised I've only got one Henderson horse down despite him currently having six market favs. I'm probably underestimating him here but I'm against a lot of those based on experience (Angels Breath, Ok Corral). The handicaps I can't take a proper view on till I see the conditions and who lines up on the day, but based on the above I'd say Prestbury Cup is going to Ireland's way again this year. 8/11 lump on job
    Last edited by bobbyvalentino; 11 February 2019, 05:54 PM.

  • #2
    ignoring odds, here's your winners at this juncture.

    Supreme: Fakir D'oudaries
    Arkle: Le Richeburg
    Champion Hurdle: Laurina
    Mares: Benie des dieux
    NHC: Ok Corral
    Ballymore: Champ
    RSA: Delta Work
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Tiger Roll
    Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
    JLT: Defi Du Seuil
    Ryanair: Monalee
    Stayers: Paisley Park
    Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Albert Bartlett: Commander of Fleet
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Pacha du Polder

    Comment


    • #3
      Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

      You'd get a price on that Bobby.

      Comment


      • #4
        Supreme: angels breath
        Arkle: cilaos emery
        Champion Hurdle: buveur dair
        Mares: Bennie des dieux (just over stormy I)
        NHC: discorama
        Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
        RSA: topofthegame
        Champion Chase: Altior
        Cross Country: auvergnat
        Champion Bumper: ( winner hasn't ran yet)
        JLT: defi de seuil
        Ryanair: min
        Stayers: Paisley park
        Mares Novice: (winner hasn't ran yet)
        Triumph: (winner hasn't ran yet)
        Albert Bartlett: easy game
        Gold Cup: al boum photo
        Foxhunters: ucello conti
        https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
        Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

        Comment


        • #5
          Supreme: Mister Fisher
          Arkle: Le Richeburg
          Champion Hurdle: Buveur Dair
          Mares: Laurina
          NHC: OK Coral
          Ballymore: Champ
          RSA: Delta Work
          Champion Chase: Altior
          Cross Country: Tiger Roll
          Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen
          JLT: Lostintranslation
          Ryanair: Monalee
          Stayers: Penhill
          Mares Novice: Epatante
          Triumph: Sir Erec
          Albert Bartlett: Dinons
          Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
          Foxhunters: Gilgamboa

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

            You'd get a price on that Bobby.
            I would definitely consider a dabble, not sure who would price that kind of bet. That said I had Nicky's down as NB for quite a few of those.

            Comment


            • #7
              Supreme: Klassical Dream
              Arkle: Cilaos Emery
              Champion Hurdle: Buveur D'Air*
              Mares: Benie des Dieux
              NHC: Ok Corral*
              Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
              RSA: Santini
              Champion Chase: Altior
              Cross Country: Tiger Roll
              Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
              JLT: Defi du Seuil*
              Ryanair: Min*
              Stayers: Penhill*
              Mares Novice: Mullins
              Triumph: Sir Erec (Though Pic D'Orhy if runs)
              Albert Bartlett: Kateson
              Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
              Foxhunters: Stand Up and Fight

              Altior and Presenting Percy the only 2 i'm very confident on out of the lot, Altior of course a certainty
              I have a feeling this year could throw out a whole host of unexpected results though. A season of delays, setbacks, unusual ground will probably mean a fair bit of the form we have seen could be turned upside down.

              Albert Bartlett is still a minefield imo as is the Bumper. Mares Novice rightly or wrongly I still side with the view Mullins must have one better than what we have seen. [Supreme] is very much a case of seeing how good Angels Breath actually is. Will very much come down to if they get another run into him and if he can prove he deserves his place at the head of the market but until then, I couldn't side with him. Finally the RSA is a belter of a race but i'm actually on the fence with a preference. For all I loved Santini's debut, valid excuses at Kempton, there's a nagging doubt there especially after Hendersons recent blog on him being the slowest horse he's trained. The Reynoldstown performance needs to be a good one... Those are the races i'm least sure of right now

              *races I see very much as match bets. Buveur vs Apples / Min vs Monalee / Penhill vs Paisley Park but preference for the selected.

              Gives the following to each trainer:

              Henderson - 5
              Mullins - 5
              Elliott - 3
              O'Brien - 1
              Kelly - 1
              Hobbs - 1
              Lacey - 1
              Bolger - 1

              Henderson will need to go out all guns blazing on the first 2 days to get his winners, as I can't see many winners on the second 2 days. Can see the first 2 days going in a similar vein to last year where Elliott struggled on day 1 where Mullins pulled away but Elliott then recovers Tuesday. If the above is correct though Elliott will need to fire in a few in the handicaps. Friday put a stop to the Mullins/Henderson/Elliott juggernaut and will be the day for the 'smaller trainers'

              Comment


              • #8
                Supreme: Klassical Dream
                Arkle: Le Richebourg
                Champion: Apples Jade
                Mares: Laurina
                NH Chase: OK Corral
                Ballymore: Brewinupastorm
                RSA: Santini
                QMCC: Altior
                X Country: Tiger Roll
                Bumper: Blackbow
                JLT: DDS
                Ryanair: Waiting Patiently
                Stayers: Penhill
                Mares Novice: Not a clue
                Triumph: Sir Erec
                Potato: Birchdale
                Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
                Foxhunters: SUAF

                Comment


                • #9
                  Supreme: Angels Breath
                  Arkle: Le Richebourg
                  Champion Hurdle : BVD
                  Mares: Laurina
                  NHC: Ballyward
                  Ballymore: Champ
                  RSA: Santini
                  Champion Chase: Altior
                  X Country: Tiger Roll
                  Bumper: Andy Dufresne
                  JLT: Defi du Seuil
                  Ryainair: Min
                  Stayers: Paisley Park
                  Mares nov: Elusive Belle
                  Triumph: Pic D’orhy
                  Bartlett: Relegate
                  Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
                  Foxhunters: Fennos Storm
                  Last edited by lloydy; 10 February 2019, 05:08 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Supreme: Angels Breath
                    Arkle: Cilaos Emery
                    Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
                    Mares: BDD
                    NHC: Discorama
                    Ballymore: Brewin’upastorm
                    RSA: Topofthegame
                    Champion Chase: Altior
                    X Country: Tiger Roll
                    Bumper: Master Debonair
                    JLT: Lostintranslation
                    Ryainair: Monalee
                    Stayers: Penhill
                    Mares nov: Mullins
                    Triumph: Pic D’orhy
                    Bartlett: Kateson
                    Gold Cup: ABP
                    Foxhunters: Fennos Storm

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Supreme: Angels Breath
                      Arkle: Cilaos Emery
                      Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
                      Mares: BDD
                      NHC: Ok Corral
                      Ballymore: Champ
                      RSA: Delta Work
                      Champion Chase: Altior
                      X Country: Tiger Roll
                      Bumper: Envoi Allen
                      JLT: DDS
                      Ryainair: Min
                      Stayers: Paisley Park
                      Mares nov: Mullins
                      Triumph: Hope Pic D’orhy, Sir Erec on what we’ve seen.
                      Albert Bartlett: Dickie Diver
                      Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
                      Foxhunters: Stand up and Fight

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Supreme: Aramon
                        Arkle: Hardline
                        Champion Hdle : Sharjah
                        Mares : Benie Des Dieux
                        NH Ch. : Ballyward
                        Ballymore Hdle. : Klassical Dream
                        RSA : Delta Work
                        QMCC : Altior
                        X Country Ch : Tiger Roll
                        Bumper : Envoi Allen
                        JLT : Real Steel
                        Ryanair : Min
                        Stayers Hdle: Faugheen
                        Mares Nov Hdle:Relegate
                        Triumph Hdle : Sir Erec
                        A.Bartlett : Commander Of Fleet
                        Gold Cup : Kemboy
                        Foxhunters : Hazel Hill
                        Last edited by Bigfish; 10 February 2019, 05:33 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Supreme: Klassical Dream
                          Arkle: Cilaos Emery
                          Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
                          Mares: Benie des dieux
                          NHC: Ok Corral
                          Ballymore: Champ
                          RSA: Delta Work
                          Champion Chase: Altior
                          Cross Country: Tiger Roll!!!!!!!!
                          Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen
                          JLT: Defi Du Seuil
                          Ryanair: Aso
                          Stayers: Penhill
                          Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
                          Triumph: Quel Destin
                          Albert Bartlett: Commander of Fleet
                          Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
                          Foxhunters: Pacha du Polder

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Supreme - Angels Breath but a close call from KD
                            Arkle - Le Richebourg
                            Champion Hurdle - Apples Jade
                            Mares - Laurina
                            NHC - OK Corral
                            Ballymore - Champ
                            RSA - Santini
                            CC - Altior
                            X Country - Tiger Roll
                            Bumper - Andy D
                            JLT - DDS
                            Ryanair - Monalee
                            Stayers - Paisley Park
                            Mares Novice - Sinoria
                            Triumph - Sir Erec or Pic D’orhy
                            Spud - Birchdale
                            Gold Cup - Presenting Percy
                            Foxhunters - Stand up and Fight

                            Close Brothers - Glen Forsa
                            Fred Winter - Band of Outlaws
                            Coral cup - Storyteller
                            Ultima - Coo Star Sivola

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Lots of people going for Laurina in the Mares. Have to say that is very unlikely. WPM said she goes Champion and - Ruby needs a decent ride in that and - the owner is dead set on going for the big one and - they have BDD and Stormy Ireland for the Mares. Relying on a Vautour like switch is dodgy.

                              Comment

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