Glorious Goodwood - 2020

[Kevloaf]

The QATAR Goodwood Festial, much better known as Glorious Goodwood gets under way next week.

The Sussex Stakes has already had some air time, but for the rest of it, lets gooooo

[thorne365]

Santiago in all the ew accums!

[YoungHustler]

Ornate, Qatar Hcap on Tuesday. 33s EW.

I was surprised to see him priced at 33s which is the same price he went off at last year when coming third to Battaash in the group 2 King George Stakes. It's all about speed with Ornate so sharp tracks like Goodwood and Epsom really suit him and it would not surprise me if this race has been the plan for a while(especially as the Epsom Dash was lost this year). He's dropped to his lowest mark in over a year and a big run is expected in my opinion. Only 17 were declared at the 5 day stage and the 2 current favourites are running this weekend so I would not expect them to be turned out again on Tuesday. The main danger imo is Acclaim The Nation who is another front runner that will be suited to the sharp track.

[Kevloaf]

Ornate, Qatar Hcap on Tuesday. 33s EW.

I was surprised to see him priced at 33s which is the same price he went off at last year when coming third to Battaash in the group 2 King George Stakes. It's all about speed with Ornate so sharp tracks like Goodwood and Epsom really suit him and it would not surprise me if this race has been the plan for a while(especially as the Epsom Dash was lost this year). He's dropped to his lowest mark in over a year and a big run is expected in my opinion. Only 17 were declared at the 5 day stage and the 2 current favourites are running this weekend so I would not expect them to be turned out again on Tuesday. The main danger imo is Acclaim The Nation who is another front runner that will be suited to the sharp track.

Like the idea there, probably a race where you're likely to get better than 3 places when the day-of-race markets appear.... I wonder if he'll still be the outsider?

I might have a little bet now just in case with the view of backing it properly with better terms.

[Quevega]

2 really tasty handicaps to start Goodwood off on Tuesday.

The 2 I like are very obvious in the 1-10.
Fully expect both to be favourites and shorter than 4-1.

Gosden's Wasaayef has excellent form from last season.
Drawn well, has shown early pace so should get a good position, and just has to be better than a 93 rated horse.

The other is Varian's Angel Power whose form may get a further boost today if Straits of Hormuz wins today at ascot. Brunch already boosted the form today. And Varians horse running really well. Also drawn well.

In the 1-45

I like Tinandali of O'Meara's (also a trainer hitting form). 11-1
This horse ran a decent race (eyecatching) last time out 10 days back and this trainer won this race with a very similar type last year.

And
Sucellus 25-1
Another who ran recently and has had excuses in last 2 runs and mark dropped accordingly. Can be slowly away but is drawn well so may still end up in a decent position, but likely to need to sneak a run through at this track. However, he is definitely on a good mark when you look at last seasons runs, especially the defeat of cape cavalli and an unlucky third at goodwood.

[kinloch brae]

I have only really starting looking at ante-post on a week to week basis fairly recently but it strikes me that bookmakers are running scared of the whole idea. I guess they haven't been offering the appropriate number of places for a while now but Unibet offering win only on a handicap which should be 1/4 1-4? And they sponsor the race! Surely all races for Tuesday should already be priced but three missing including two handicaps?

I see the 5/2 Khaloosy on Friday is already a distant memory.

Bet 365 don't seem to have noticed that Goodwood is on.

[Big Bucks]

PAINLESS POTTER 12/1 2:15 tomorrow (,Tuesday) in my tracker after reading an article of Alan King recently. Seems very keen on it. Maybe its one for the future but no harm having a point ew on it.

[Faugheen_Machine]

In the 1-45

I like Tinandali of O'Meara's (also a trainer hitting form). 11-1
This horse ran a decent race (eyecatching) last time out 10 days back and this trainer won this race with a very similar type last year.

A real eye catcher lto. With a clear run he'd have been 2nd at worst, imo. Took a bit of 11s too.

[Big Bucks]

Hugh Taylor has just put one up in same race tomorrow as my pick ha! Prob should of held of as prob drift a bit more now.

Followed Q and FM in on Tinandali in race before.

EDIT he has put 2 up against mine, then we have the short fav Battkeground! Doh!

[Priceiskey]

Lennox Stakes tomorrow and I like the chances of Sir Dancelot. Won this race last year and will be ready for another huge run tomorrow. This track suits as he has a lovely turn of foot and can make his challenge late. The current favourite Space Blues is nice and seems to be improving but he’s too short for what he’s done and the draw in 10 is not ideal. Safe Voyage is next in at 3/1 and there isn’t much juice in that either. He won on good last time but it wasn’t a very good race and he’s a better horse when able to get his toe in. Duke Of Hazzard loves Goodwood but like I said before the Queen Anne, Is his form very strong? No is the simple answer and being trained by Paul Cole has to be another negative. Pierre Lapin flopped at Ascot and has it all to do drawn in the car park here. I think he wants this trip but maybe another day. Glorious Journey I like but stall 9 and this track possibly not ideal. D’bai returns after winning just 11 days ago. Dettori up and has a nice turn of foot. May need to find a couple of pounds but I’d give him a squeak. Marie’s Diamond will lead them to the furlong pole before getting swallowed up. Beat Le Bon is interesting in that he’s 2/2 at Goodwood and has a lovely turn of foot. You would have to be disappointed with his seasonal debut but he’s been keen and tanked round the outside before fading. I know Hannon thinks he’s a proper Group horse and this would likely have been the season target. He may not be the horse Hannon thinks he is or was but at 22/1 with only one run this season I’m prepared to give him a chance. Escobar has a few pound to find but I wouldn’t totally rule him out at 33/1. He likes Goodwood after finishing 3rd last year and his 8th the season before you can forget as he was hard on the bridle 100 yards out with nowhere to go. His career best was on Heavy at Ascot which you could argue he’s better with cut but I don’t think it matters much. Graignes is hard to weigh up doing all his racing in France. His form suggests he needs to find around 6 pound to get competitive but his small trainer is flying at the moment and he’s still fairly lightly raced. Not for me but I wouldn’t say he’s a complete no hoper. Bless Him looks to have too much to find and the draw has done him no favours either. History Writer wants soft ground and looks outclassed.
The strong bet for me is SIR DANCELOT his run under a penalty first time up at Newmarket was fine and he was hampered late on. He’s then ran in a red hot July stakes over the wrong trip and that was respectable. Those two runs would have put him spot on for this big season target and I find it very hard to see him out of the frame. BEAT LE BON will also be added e/w and hopefully we will get 4 places this evening?
Good luck everyone. All thoughts welcome.

[kinloch brae]

I don't like courses where jocks have ready made excuses before they even get on the horse. Goodwood must be top of that list. I prefer them to actually lose a bit of ground for a clear run rather than just ride for luck up the inside.

Only two bets on what doesn't look a punter friendly card:-

Santiago
Au Clair De Lune EW

Santiago reminds me a little of Stradivarius. Surely with that weight concession he should be troubling the favourite who we already know isn't unbeatable?

I would have been much more hopeful of Au Clair De Lune without the rain. Hopefully, it will dry back to good.

Elsewhere, I am a little puzzled by this season's version of Duke Of Hazzard. Two runs and on both occasions he has travelled well enough without finishing his race off. I think there is more to it than simply dropping him back in trip and I have no idea why they have ditched P J McDonald.

[Quevega]

2 really tasty handicaps to start Goodwood off on Tuesday.

The 2 I like are very obvious in the 1-10.
Fully expect both to be favourites and shorter than 4-1.

Gosden's Wasaayef has excellent form from last season.
Drawn well, has shown early pace so should get a good position, and just has to be better than a 93 rated horse.

The other is Varian's Angel Power whose form may get a further boost today if Straits of Hormuz wins today at ascot. Brunch already boosted the form today. And Varians horse running really well. Also drawn well.

In the 1-45

I like Tinandali of O'Meara's (also a trainer hitting form). 11-1
This horse ran a decent race (eyecatching) last time out 10 days back and this trainer won this race with a very similar type last year.

And
Sucellus 25-1
Another who ran recently and has had excuses in last 2 runs and mark dropped accordingly. Can be slowly away but is drawn well so may still end up in a decent position, but likely to need to sneak a run through at this track. However, he is definitely on a good mark when you look at last seasons runs, especially the defeat of cape cavalli and an unlucky third at goodwood.

Took a long while for them to price up the 1-10, and when they did it was not as exciting as it may have been had they gone bigger than 4's for either horse.
Ended up with just the 4 pts at just under 4-1 on Wasaayef.
Left Angel Power alone in the end.
If it's available at 9-2 or bigger in the morning then I'll have a saver on it.
The money coming for the Stuart williams horse is interesting so put that in a yankee with Babbo's, Marie D & one at galway later on.

Already backed the 2 in the 1-45 but added Bell Rock also as 12-1 seemed fair value each way.

So a bit heavy really for the first two races at the meeting and it may all go tits up from this point onwards
It's a five day double shifter after all.

[Pendil]

Interesting that Crowley Stays with Restorer @ 33/1 tomorrow rather than Maydanny for MAM that he rode the last twice and is quarter the odds. .5 pts ew

[Kevloaf]

Interesting that Crowley Stays with Restorer @ 33/1 tomorrow rather than Maydanny for MAM that he rode the last twice and is quarter the odds. .5 pts ew

I love that.

I can't explain it, you've suckered me in to 2 pts e/w




It's inexplicable that SDS that's never ridden him would 'jock off' Crowley, for those owners.

I'm such a believer in Ian Williams as well.




Crowley HAS TO have decided to decline the Maydanny ride there surely?

[Saxon Warrior]

I love that.

I can't explain it, you've suckered me in to 2 pts e/w




It's inexplicable that SDS that's never ridden him would 'jock off' Crowley, for those owners.

I'm such a believer in Ian Williams as well
Crowley HAS TO have decided to decline the Maydanny ride there surely?

I know it’s only a 1lb or 2, but Jim Crowley’s lowest riding weight in the last 12 months on any horse is 8st 7lb.

Maydanny is 8st 6lb
Restorer is 8st 8lb.

It may be weight driven, to a degree........ maybe not though