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**Outlaw** · 12 May 2020, 05:24 PM

Good start,you might as well delve back another couple years with time on your hands for a bigger sample

. In all seriousness nicely presented and be very interesting if someone gets some angle on the type of runners for each race. We know the Giggi angle for the Mp as it's well documented but look forward to anyone spotting other "profiles" for certain races from this stable going forward potentially.

**BigChaang** · 12 May 2020, 05:33 PM

I started looking back at all races at the weekend , I only did a couple of years.
and gordon elliott came up a fair few times, so definitely a good angle to consider.
will delve a bit deeper and see which races in particular -( non handicaps ), .
are worth considering.

**The King Pimm** · 12 May 2020, 08:03 PM

My best multiple for the past 2 festivals have been Gordon Elliot handicap Lucky 31’s. He just so good at placing them and having his horses peaked. Ben Dundee finishing 5th and missing out on 4th in the plate denied me an extra 120 point return on this years best Multiple.

**riccirich** · 12 May 2020, 09:00 PM

And I think I'm right in saying that out of the seven that Davy rode for gordon, six of them placed (if you include Ben dundee)

**The King Pimm** · 12 May 2020, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by riccirich View Post

And I think I'm right in saying that out of the seven that Davy rode for gordon, six of them placed (if you include Ben dundee)

Ben Dundee finished 5th so didn’t place unless you had him covered with enhanced/extra place. He was only beaten by Oldgrangewood by a head too!!

**Priceiskey** · 12 May 2020, 10:00 PM

Good work on this Kev and all the other races you have covered. Enjoyed reading them.

**Saxon Warrior** · 13 May 2020, 09:25 AM

Handicaps have all been about Gordon Elliott for at least three years.
He is the only one with the ability & ammunition to place handicap hurdles and handicap chasers regularly successfully.

Willie Mullins has rarely competed successfully in handicap chasers

**Istabraq** · 13 May 2020, 09:36 AM

Does anyone in here support the notion that novices should not be able of contest handicaps ?
Trainers are so good at concealing horses abilities the handicappers job has become almost impossible, any support ?

**Eggs** · 13 May 2020, 09:42 AM

.....fascinating and much appreciated analysis (with the exception of the Column of Fire reminder!! Saying that CoF was a great shout so far out).

**Rhinestone_Cowboy** · 13 May 2020, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

Handicaps have all been about Gordon Elliott for at least three years.
He is the only one with the ability & ammunition to place handicap hurdles and handicap chasers regularly successfully.

Willie Mullins has rarely competed successfully in handicap chasers

But is it really a matter of differing ability and ammunition, surely Willie�s team can match him in that respect? Is it not more down to the yard liking a plot and a punt in equal measure?

**Captain Chris** · 13 May 2020, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

Does anyone in here support the notion that novices should not be able of contest handicaps ?
Trainers are so good at concealing horses abilities the handicappers job has become almost impossible, any support ?

Interesting idea. Are you limiting it to Cheltenham or all racing? There would need to be a big change in the racing calendar for that or else certain horses would spend their careers in novice races without ever winning. Maiden races and then winners contests for novices and novice handicaps maybe? I'd prefer that anyway in fairness. Try to funnel all decent novices towards the same races (like Ireland seems to).

In summary, would happily see novices banned from Cheltenham (if not all) handicaps. So many horses just under the top level seem to find it difficult to win the big races after their 2nd season over hurdles /fences - without plotting (cheating) to get their mark down. This may keep it fairer for all.

**Istabraq** · 13 May 2020, 11:28 AM

It was an idea I heard banded around somewhere straight after Cheltenham, a review of what options the handicapper might have to prevent what appear glaring errors when assessing novices.

In crude terms there’s a trend developing where Irish trainers clean up most handicaps, often with novices, regardless of the premium the UK handicapper puts on Irish horses and rarely are these horses surprising everyone with their improvement, they’re often well fancied/backed...

**Captain Chris** · 13 May 2020, 11:38 AM

There are 5 novice chases and 6 novice hurdles (including the juvenile + mare's events) so it's not as if there are a lack of options

**nortonscoin200** · 13 May 2020, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

Whilst re-watching this years festival race-by-race and putting together a little summary for each race, I found myself repeating “Gordon Elliott” over and over again. No real surprise to anyone as he’s been leading trainer there twice (2017 & 2018) and was beaten on countback this year with 7 winners.

That said, I found myself thinking that ‘Gordon Elliot is the place to start for every handicap’ which is a line I found myself coming back to on plenty of occasions!

It's always good to have some facts backing up such broad sweeping statements....

In the table below I’ve put together all 10 handicap races and worked put in all of his finishing positions (1^st to 5^th, then unplaced). I decided to include 5^th as most bookies offer it in the handicaps and I thought that was fair enough.

The above data tells us:

In total he had 23 runners, of these:

Winners = 17.5%
Placed = 39 %

Unplaced = 43.5%

To work out how profitable that was though we need to include the prices. I used Starting Price for these, for obvious reasons.

To a �1 each way, level stake we have the following results:

Total stake e/w	�46.00
Total Return	�82.02
Profit/Loss	+�36.02

This year, backing Gordon Elliott blindly, each way, would have given you a 78% return on your investment.

Interestingly, Win Only would have been �23.00 staked and a return of �34.00 which is a worse return.

The above is only 1 years data, and drawing too much from it would be foolish, but however you look at it, it's very impressive!

We obviously had Column Of Fire who would surely have improved the results if he'd stood up, but that's quite a selective way to look at it as anything can and does happen.

The strike rates for the Grand Annual, Pertemps and Kim Muir are at 100% which is ridiculous, and the Boodles is pretty incredible too.

‘Gordon Elliot is the place to start for every handicap?’

Based on the above, in 2021, he will be for me

Interesting stuff Kev.

For comparison purposes, I've just been through Gordon's performance in the 18 championship races at this year's Festival and it was almost as impressive as his handicap strike rate - but not quite so profitable for punters.

Runners: 18
Winners: 3 16.6%
Placed (1-3): 6 33.3%
Placed (1-5): 9 50%

Stake (�1ew): 36
Returns: 44.6
Profit: 8.6 (based on ew 1/5th odds 1-3 at sp)
%Profit: 24%

I obviously didn't include horses who finished fourth and fifth in the above figures because they would be losing bets for most punters.

But for the sake of consistency with Kev's calculations here are the results of adding them in as successful bets:

Profit : 17.2
% profit: 48%

Backing Gordon's horses win only in the championship races would have also produced a lower % profit than each way:

Stake: 18
Returns: 19.56
Profit: 1.56
% profit: 8.7%

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Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

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