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Epsom Derby 2019

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  • Epsom Derby 2019

    Hugh Taylor

    With no Flat racing on Sunday and two mundane National Hunt cards, I’m going to dip into the ante-post market, as DUBAI WARRIOR is my long-range Derby suggestion.

    He impressed me as much as any 2yo maiden or novice winner last season, and the fact that it came in a class 5 novice event at Chelmsford on a Thursday night in November shouldn’t detract from his promise. Jack Hobbs, Persuasive, Enable and Without Parole all made winning debuts for John Gosden in modest all-weather events in November or December and all went on to win at Group 1 level.
    Dubai Warrior produced an impressive time figure and sectionals combination when winning at Chelmsford, and the level to which he ran on that first start strongly suggests he will be making his mark at Group level.

    He should stay middle distances as a 3yo; the very best performers of his sire Dansili have been 1m4f horses and he’s out of a Galileo mare who won over 1m1f-1m4f.

    There are a couple of question marks; the first is that he’s just one of a bunch of potential Derby candidates in his stable, including top-class 2yo Too Darn Hot, and the second is that his smart full brother Mootasadir so far has only produced his form on the all-weather (albeit has raced only twice on turf), and Gosden has already stated that he’d be concerned about soft ground for Dubai Warrior.
    However, I’m fairly confident he’s going to be a high-class colt this year, and at odds of 25-1 and 20-1 I think he’s worth chancing even at this very early stage.


    25/1 (Now best price 20/1)

  • #2
    Wouldn't be touching Too Darn Hot for the Derby Kev. Didn't look to be covering much ground to me and may struggle in a G1 12f race

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    • #3
      Just had a go on Dubai Warrior at 16/1, i know i missed the 25s but still a decent price, especially if it wins something like the Chester Vase or Dante

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      • #4
        Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

        Was not on my radar.

        Too short now.




        Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

          Was not on my radar.

          Too short now.




          Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?
          hovered over 50-1 with pp, but after having magna grecia at 66-1 to do the guineas derby double then realising he'd not entered it I was dubious that 365 had not priced it up (assumed it was also not entered) so didn't back it.

          also seriously looked for a price on 365 before medaayih won yesterday and also not priced up/entered.

          frustrating that they both won so well (did back them yesterday though).
          Ended up backing Medaayih after it won for oaks with hills 8.48-1.
          left dragonet alone.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

            Was not on my radar.

            Too short now.




            Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?
            If you mean Sir Dragonet , Yep!, had him in my Lucky 15 @13-2.

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            • #7
              Too Darn Flop

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              • #8
                Dubai Warrior at 66/1 for Derby... Any reason to why it shouldn't be backed now?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Clinker View Post
                  Dubai Warrior at 66/1 for Derby... Any reason to why it shouldn't be backed now?
                  Injured isn’t he?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    Too Darn Flop
                    Think they’ve made a mistake reverting back in trip.
                    I’m convinced he was beat for lack of sharpness rather than lack of stamina, countless setbacks all Winter and a rushed prep for one of the hottest Dante’s in memory, beaten by a top class horse and front pair pulled a mile clear of the rest who, incidently, include a Breeders Cup mile winner.
                    Are connections saying Line of Duty didn’t stay ?

                    Every chance he takes in the Eclipse after Ascot then steps back up to 12f

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
                      Injured isn’t he?
                      That would be a good reason not too!! Thanks...

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                        Think they’ve made a mistake reverting back in trip.
                        I’m convinced he was beat for lack of sharpness rather than lack of stamina, countless setbacks all Winter and a rushed prep for one of the hottest Dante’s in memory, beaten by a top class horse and front pair pulled a mile clear of the rest who, incidently, include a Breeders Cup mile winner.
                        Are connections saying Line of Duty didn’t stay ?

                        Every chance he takes in the Eclipse after Ascot then steps back up to 12f
                        There's no doubt in my mind that too darn hot was the best horse in the race but he lacked for sharpness. Run the race again next month and TDH would win comfortably imo.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                          There's no doubt in my mind that too darn hot was the best horse in the race but he lacked for sharpness. Run the race again next month and TDH would win comfortably imo.
                          I don't imagine the bookies will compensate you with that view unfortunately.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            I don't imagine the bookies will compensate you with that view unfortunately.
                            Unfortunately not.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I've backed Anthony Van Dyke for the Derby. 8/1 (few days back)

                              I'm anticipating Donnacha gets put on the impressive Chester winner Sir Dragonet and Ryan will be on.

                              Not a sexy one but just really solid.



                              Also added Madhmoon 25/1 before the guineas

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