Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012 Official Thread

[mayo]

Cant see one so here goes

D

avid Pipe has yet to make a final decision on where stable star Grands Crus will start off his season.

The top-class staying hurdler made a brilliant start to his career over fences last term, winning at Cheltenham, Newbury and in the Feltham Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

He disappointed when a hot favourite for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but has pleased his trainer since returning from his summer break and a decision on his likely starting point is not far away.

The talented grey, who carries the colours of Roger Stanley and Yvonne Reynolds, is ante-post favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month.

Pipe said: "He’s in good order and I’m pleased with where he is at the moment.

"I’m not sure yet where he’s going to start off. I’ll have a chat with the owners very shortly and we’ll go from there.

"There are a few options and the races he can run in are fairly obvious, including the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

"I need to discuss things with the owners before making a decision."

[Sprinter]

Sean Boyce...

At the time of writing few have framed a market for this event and it’s possible that the winner isn’t quoted of course but here’s an early heads up.

The Paddy Power has already been earmarked for the remarkably progressive Hunt Ball with trainer Kieran Burke stating that he believes his horse can win the race off his current mark. He did add the proviso though that lack of match fitness would be a worry. A bigger worry for me would be that he would need to be at least as good, and possibly better against improving opponents, than his current mark. This horse has done nothing but amaze us all but I’d be more than amazed if he has much more to offer than his current mark suggests. Current prices are probably fair as he is a likely starter and unlikely to go off any bigger but I can happily pass him over for now.

I think Cue Card has a very exciting season ahead of him but would be surprised to see him line up in a race like this where he’d be asked to give a lot of weight to some hard trained and improving rivals. I expect the Tizzard team to keep him in top company, small field races. Betfair Chase, then King George for example and beyond that perhaps a Gold Cup tilt. He’s a serious horse but I don’t seriously expect to see him at Cheltenham in November.

Champion Court is another who is unlikely to line up. Martin Keighley has expressed concern that the race might be a big ask for his progressive young star. In a way that’s a shame as I’d quite like his profile for this race. The trainer has pointed to a tendency to jump a little right which would make a graduation chase at Kempton followed by the King George a more obvious route for him.

Aerial was a fair fourth in the race last year and only a six year old so has scope for further improvement against an ever climbing handicap market. It is tough though to make a strong case for him oustripping that handicap mark this term. The fact that Ruby Walsh has detected a right handed bias in the horse would also be a negative both for him turning up and for winning.

ATR viewers and readers of my thoughts will know how highly I regard Philip Hobbs’ horse, Menorah. His issues are even more widely known though of course. Jumping has time and again proved his Achilles heel and it’s hard therefore to get too excited about him from a value perspective just now. Were he to line up he’d be a very exciting runner but the hurly burly of a tough handicap chase doesn’t seem the obvious starting point for him under the circumstances.

Silviniaco Conti is a very exciting staying chaser for the coming season but another for whom the King George is a likely target. That’s partly to do with trip but also to do with the fact that the horse seems best on a flat track and when fresh. Both those factors strike me as negatives for him in the Paddy Power in terms of participation.

For me CRISTAL BONUS is the most interesting of the Nicholls horses that are currently quoted in the market. Very lightly raced, he flopped badly in the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival but bounced back at Aintree on his final start last season. He found Menorah too good that day but finished in front of his stablemate Al Ferof. This two and a half miles is his trip and there could be plenty more improvement to come from him this year. His failure to fire on this course is a slight worry but if he turns out to be a likely runner in this I’d want him on my side I think.

FOR NON STOP is a fascinating animal for this and clearly very talented. He ran a good race in third in the Jewson at Cheltenham. Trainer Nick Williams says that his races take a bit out of him and I think he’s got an edge when he’s fresh. Were he to line up in this (and Nick Williams tells me it’s on his dance card) as his first start of the season he’d be a very interesting prospect indeed.

Michel le Bon could be that rarest of beasts, a well handicapped Paul Nicholls chaser. He has clearly had his issues having averaged less than one start under rules for each of his nine years but he is equally clearly very talented. Grabbing an early big race pot could well be a wise move as long term planning with such a horse will be nigh on impossible.
Sean's Advised Bets
Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Cheltenham, Saturday 17 November)

0.5pt win Cristal Bonus (14-1 Bet365, Stan James, Paddy Power)
0.5pt win For Non Stop (16-1 Bet365)

[Lester]

Nicholls' main title rival Nicky Henderson is eyeing a crack at the Paddy Power Gold Cup with the "funny old bat" Nadiya De La Vega after her victory in the BetVictor.com Handicap Chase.

The mare put a disappointing run behind her at Chepstow in December to score by two-and-a-half lengths under a typically strong ride from champion jockey AP McCoy, who went on to complete a double aboard Bondage.

Henderson said he will now give the Paddy Power Gold Cup, which he has won with Fondmort in 2003, serious consideration.

"She dropped AP going out – I only found out after the race," he said.

"She can be a funny old bat, but she's been working very sharply since she came back.

"The Paddy Power Gold Cup will have to come into it now."

[Huntball]

David Pipe on Grands Crus target

It was an enjoyable day and there was a good turnout from the crowd and they seemed pleased to see stable star Grands Crus who had won the Grade One Feltham Novices’ chase at the track on Boxing Day. As you can see from the pictures, he is in good nick and will hopefully be on the course within the next month either for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham on 17th November or the Betfair Chase a week later at Haydock. I can honestly say that at present we have not decided on the best route for him, suffice to say I will have to speak to the owners and take in the best option for the horse. The public will be informed when a decision has been reached.

Grands_Crus_Kempton_Parade.jpg

[Old Vic]

Martin Keighley is not keen to run Havingotascoobydo in the Paddy Power Gold Cup next month from out of the handicap.

The seven-year-old made his seasonal return at Cheltenham last weekend and was in the process of running a big race before giving the second last a big brush.

He was allowed to coast home in his own time when his chance had gone and Keighley remains convinced there is a big prize in him.
"He came down the hill looking like he was going to win," said Keighley.

"Unfortunately he belted the second last and blew up, he just needed the run.

"I think he'll come on a heck of a lot from that and we'll look forward to his next run.

"He's got an entry in the Paddy Power but I wouldn't be keen on running him from out of the weights.

"If we don't go there there are two identical races for him at Ascot the following week."

Havingotascoobydo is 14-1 with the sponsors for the first major handicap of the National Hunt season.

[Lester]

After a summer recuperating at the farm of his Sturminster Newton owner Anthony Knott following that fabulous 2011-12 campaign the seven-year-old has returned to work with Burke enthusing: "Hunt Ball is bigger, stronger and better than ever. He changed in shape and size with every run last season – he's got more of a back-end now, he's thicker in the neck – and what's more he knows he's good too.

"Anthony looked after him well in the summer – when he bought him last year he looked terrible."

Step into his stable and the handsome, muscular bay nearly 17 hands high and with a kind eye stands demurely as though butter wouldn't melt.

But don't be fooled by that laid-back stance because put a saddle on his back and his mischievous, spirited nature emerges – he has dumped both trainer and regular jockey Nick Scholfield as he continues his build-up to the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday, November 17.

Burke said: "Hunt Ball can be a blighter at times – he suddenly whipped round and had Nick on the floor. He's not easy at times and can try to get you off.

"He takes a lot of work because he is such a big horse but he doesn't try that hard at home – something rated about 20 could go past him on the gallops and he'll be just jig-jogging. He came back in mid-July because he doesn't like being out too long and we wanted to give ourselves plenty of time – we want him spot on for Cheltenham.

"He's now doing some hard, fast work and we're very pleased with him.

"We would never have thought he would prove to be as good as he is now. We knew he was well in front of the handicapper but we never dreamt he'd go to 157 – we thought we were pushing our luck a bit at 115.

"Mind you, when I rode him in a novice chase at Cheltenham in April, 2011, he felt a nice horse – we had Balthazar King, who won the cross-country at the last Cheltenham Festival, off the bridle at the top of the hill when we were nowhere near fit and finished fourth.

"It could be that the family are late developers – his full brother has just won in Ireland aged six.

"People may look at what happened last season and think I was a jammy so-and-so but you make your own luck. It wasn't easy to pick out the races and go where we won – it was hard work.

"When we stepped him up he looked even better and he was really impressive at the Cheltenham Festival – though that race is a bit of a blur to me. As for Aintree, he would have won that day if he hadn't run at Kempton Park or Cheltenham."

The Paddy Power is the same trip of an extended two miles and four furlongs that Hunt Ball won over at the Cheltenham Festival and the following race on his schedule will be the three-mile King George VI Chase at Kempton Park over Christmas.

After that plans are fluid. Burke added: "We're not sure where to go after that. We have a couple of options but we won't worry about that yet. As for the Festival there is the Ryanair Chase but most probably it's going to be the Gold Cup – I know he'll stay that trip because he's bigger, stronger and a year older."

At this point Knott interjects: "It'll be the Gold Cup – he's not going anywhere else."

Burke has been taking his celebrity to nearby Ham Hill or Richard Barber's Seaborough gallops and he'll also be heading to the sands at Brean near Burnham-on-Sea – and a racecourse gallop is planned at Wincanton. "He loves going on the lorry – he hops up just like a dog in a car."

[Lester]

The pattern to finding the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner has been set in stone for a number of years now in that we should look to a progressive, young chaser with winning Cheltenham form already in the bag from a top southern stable that is towards the head of the market, as 15 of the last 20 winners fitted that profile following Great Endeavour’s easy victory last season.

The market has been an excellent guide. Of the last 40 winners, just eight did not start in the first four in the betting which is some going for a handicap of this competitive nature. Once we have our very-fancied runner, we should then focus our attention on those with at least one piece of quality track form. Of the last 20 winners, a mighty strong 16 had already tasted success over the course (all bar one at 2½ miles or further) whereas the 1990 winner Multum In Parvo was only beaten a short-head in the previous season’s Cathcart Chase.

Last season’s winner won the Byrne Group Plate at the course 20 months earlier. The previous two winners were winning at Cheltenham for the first time in their careers which takes some gloss of this statistic but there can be no doubt that a strong piece of course form is a big positive. The runner-up and third last season finished fourth and first respectively in the previous season’s Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival which is a fairly new race so look out for runners from last season’s renewal won by Hunt Ball.

THE MARKET HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT GUIDE. OF THE LAST 40 WINNERS, JUST EIGHT DID NOT START IN THE FIRST FOUR IN THE BETTING WHICH IS SOME GOING FOR A HANDICAP OF THIS COMPETITIVE NATURE.
Irish-based raiders had to wait 30 years for their next Paddy Power Gold Cup winner since Bright Highway back in 1980 when Tranquil Sea justified favouritism three seasons ago and the North have landed just one renewal since 1983 so it has been the southern-based stables and notably the big southern-based stables that have been very difficult to beat. Martin Pipe trained eight winners and his son, David, got on the board for the first time last season.

Nigel Twiston-Davies gears his stable up for this three-day meeting and has won two of the last four runnings in addition to Tipping Tim’s success in 1992 but also note Philip Hobbs who may have only saddled one winner (Joint Sovereignty in 1989) but four of his last nine runners have placed, three at double-figure prices though his Wishfull Thinking could only finish a well-beaten sixth last year after being sent off favourite. It is surely only a matter of time before Paul Nicholls wins this prize despite a career record of 0-23 (3 seconds) and Granit Jack looked all set to do just that until falling fatally in 2007.

Weight carried does not seem to be a big factor (though four of the last five winners were rated between 146 - 148 - the exception being Imperial Commander who ran off 139) with winners going in from all over the handicap but, age on the other hand, most certainly is as second and third-season chasers have ruled the roost in no uncertain fashion and the first five home last season were all aged no older than seven. Given that no horse aged ten or older has won since 1975 and that none have even placed since the former Champion Hurdler, Beech Road in 1993, it should be safe to overlook such contenders for win and each-way purposes.

[mayo]

Kalleshan broke down at ascot

[Old Vic]

It's a personal thing but everyone has his own version of the jumps start. For some, it's Listowel. For others, it's the Chepstow fixture that used to feature the old Mercedes Benz Chase and the four-year-old Free Handicap and now has the Totepool Silver Trophy. For others still, it's yesterday's Charlie Hall.

Some might say the jumps only begins when AP McCoy has ridden his 100th winner (last Thursday!). However, even diehards of the level who have steadfastly clung to the Flat through Racing Post Trophies, Breeders' Cups, November Handicaps, and Melbourne Cup have to quietly admit that the sport has come in its winter coat when we get to Cheltenham's Paddy Power in mid-November.

For many, the feature race will always remain the 'Mackeson' -- reflective of an enduring sponsorship that began with the inception of the race in 1960 and lasted in a world of fast food and instant messaging a whopping 35 years. The race sponsorship wobbled for a period, from Murphy's through Thomas Pink, until Paddy Power took over in 2003. Given the commercial progress of the sponsor in recent years, it is unlikely to change names again for the foreseeable future.

By far the most successful franchise in the race's distinguished history has been the Pipe family. Martin practically made the race his own, winning it eight times (seven between 1996 and 2005); and son David took over where he left off by winning last year's renewal with Great Endeavour.

This time another Pipe grey heads the market in Grands Crus and, in spite of 44 entries at this stage, it looks as if the seven-year-old will be devilishly hard to beat. His handicap mark of 157 almost certainly underestimates his talent and has been accrued mainly through a tame final effort in the RSA Chase, a notoriously punishing encounter for a novice in any year.

Long Run was an equally disappointing beaten favourite in the same race before starting favourite for the Paddy Power two years ago. He raced off a one-pound higher mark (158) than Grands Crus but could only manage third. In spite of that defeat, he won the Gold Cup the following March, beating Denman and Kauto Star, and wound up the season with a rating of 182.

While we're on the subject of comparison, the Paddy Power trip of two-and-a-half miles is far more up Grands Crus' street than ever it was for the stamina-laden Long Run, so it is easily conceivable the Pipe grey could win this out of the park off his present mark.

However, his price two weeks out from the race is just 7/2 best, and the fact Grands Crus still holds an entry the following week in Haydock's Betfair Chase just tempers any ante-post enthusiasm at this stage. Furthermore, he is a hold-up character which races very keenly so is going to need luck in running in what could be a maximum field.

For Non Stop raced into the Paddy Power equation last weekend with a breathtaking victory in the Old Roan Chase, but the handicapper hasn't missed him and has slapped him with an 11lbs weight rise. While undoubtedly improving, and with some requisite good course form, although he has never won at Cheltenham from four visits, he is one for the shortlist. However, they went off at a suicide pace at Aintree and the race rather fell apart in front of For Non Stop, so I'm pretty sure his margin of victory was exaggerated on the day.

Champion Court had For Non Stop behind him in the Jewson when chasing home Sir Des Champs in March yet will meet him in receipt of 7lbs this time around. Martin Keighley unlocked the secret to Champion Court by allowing him to freewheel in front and the tactics all but succeeded in the Jewson. He would hold an outstanding chance if he lines up. However, the trainer has another in the race and has intimated he won't run both. He sees Champion Court as essentially a three-miler this season and is only considering the Paddy Power after his horse suffered a minor setback forcing him to miss an engagement in a graduation chase tomorrow.

The one that most catches my eye is Micheal Flips, which finished fourth in the Jewson but now meets the others on considerably better terms. Prior to that he had run For Non Stop to two lengths off levels in the Grade One Scilly Isles at Newbury yet he gets 16lbs from that rival on Saturday week.

His jumping has been his Achilles heel but his trainer is confident he's got it ironed out now. He split Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti on his chasing debut last term before winning two weeks later on his second start. Yesterday's pipe-opener at Ascot should have sharpened his axe and he might just be the one for the Christmas money in a fortnight.

[Yeehaa]

Poqelin dropped 3lbs so knock on effect on the 140+ rated horses. Any thoughts on lowest rated to get in ?

DIVERS will have a "perfect" weight for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham a week on Saturday according to the owners provided top weight Poquelin does not miss the contest.

Owned by Let's Live Racing and trained by Ferdy Murphy, the eight-year-old finished third behind Great Endeavour in last year's Paddy Power off a 6lb higher mark. He returned this year finishing well down the field at Cheltenham last month and sits towards the bottom of the weights for the Paddy Power Gold Cup on November 17.

Mark Ball, racing manager to the owners, has now got his fingers crossed that the rain stays away to boost Divers chances further for the Grade 3 handicap.

He said: "Poquelin was dropped 3lbs to 163 thus leaving 138-rated Divers provisionally perched on 10st 1lb for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. That's perfect but all we need now is a fair run with the weather as it's no secret he wants decent ground to show his best."

Writing on the Let's Live Racing website, Ball added that favourite Grands Crus looked "well handicapped" but that Poquelin's place in the field made it tougher for those carrying big weights at the top of the handicap.

"With the dropping of Poquelin to 163 it makes the task of those in the high 150's just that bit harder," he said. "Grand Crus, who does look well handicapped on a strict line through 168-rated Silviniaco Conti, will have to shoulder 11st 5lbs. That is assuming Poquelin turns up, that's not a certainty of course, so the weights could go up further."

[Statto]

BHA site has GC on 11 6...

Grands Crus in Power equation

Grands Crus has been allotted 11st 6lb for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday week, the first major handicap of the National Hunt season.

David Pipe's grey was not at his best when beaten in the RSA Chase at Prestbury Park in March but had previously looked a novice chaser of the highest order, not least when dishing out a beating to subsequent Charlie Hall Chase winner Silviniaco Conti in the Feltham at Kempton.

Pipe has still not decided whether to take advantage of what looks a lenient handicap mark or to start his season off at the highest level in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite the uncertainty, the sponsors make him their 3-1 favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Paul Nicholls' Poquelin, a standing dish in the race, heads the weights. Nicholls has eight entries in total which include his impressive Down Royal victor Cristal Bonus (11st 6lb) and Grade One winner Al Ferof (11st 8lb).

For Non Stop created plenty of interest when he waltzed away with the Old Roan Chase but his task has been made harder, having been allotted 11st 11lb. Hunt Ball was the success story of last season and he will carry 11st 6lb for Keiran Burke.

Micheal Flips is an interesting contender for Andy Turnell with just 10st 8lb on his back and the former jockey was happy with his charge after finishing fifth at Ascot on Saturday.

"Micheal Flips is a definite runner for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, all being well. I thought that he ran all right at Ascot on Saturday - he was carrying a lot of weight and the trip was a bit sharp for him. He will be better for the run and it should put him spot-on for Cheltenham," said Turnell.

"His good form last season was very good. His second to For Non Stop looks very good now and he seemed to run consistently well without setting the world alight. He made one error with his jumping on Saturday but he jumped pretty well otherwise and he seems more confident over his fences now."

Other notable contenders include the Nicky Henderson-trained pair of Nadiya De La Vega (10st 8lb) and the 2011 second Quantitativeeasing (11st 4lb), last season's RSA Chase fifth Walkon (10st 6lb) and Jewson Novices' Chase runner-up Champion Court (11st 4lb).

Paddy Power Gold Cup - sponsors bet: 3-1 Grand Crus, 6-1 Hunt Ball, 10-1 Champion Court, For Non Stop, Walkon, 12-1 Nadiya De La Vega, 14-1 Micheal Flips, Ghizao, 16-1 Cristal Bonus, Divers, Al Ferof, 20-1 bar

.

[Old Vic]

Martin Keighley @martinkeighley7

Champion Court bypasses the Paddy Power & now heads for Ascot's Amlin Chase. Havingotascoobydo also misses the PP & has options at Ascot.

[johnno]

Not my work but could be ....


I can't, but there could be some juice in the price of Pipe's other entry, NOTUS DE LA TOUR.

He's a 25/1 chance and while he's not absolutely guaranteed a run at present, he only needs four to come out and that looks highly likely given Nicholls isn't likely to run all of the big guns he has above him in the list.

Notus De La Tour was a very promising novice chaser last term. He was second and third in a couple of Grade One contests at Leopardstown after impressing with his jumping when winning novice chases at Carlisle and Plumpton.

His final start of the season came in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival when he was sent off an 8/1 shot but fell at the third, his stablemate Salut Flo landing the spoils.

We didn't learn it that day but I'm sure a mark off 144 isn't the ceiling of his ability. He jumps very well and his second in a Grade One behind Blackstairmountain hints at potentially a greater level of form, with the step back up in trip to 2m4f and further set to unlock further improvement.

Also versatile regarding the ground and a horse that goes well fresh, this talented six-year-old could be a real plunger in the market if his trainer decides to go into the contest double-handed.

At 25/1, I think he's worth the risk.

The one other horse I think is worth backing at this stage is PEPITE ROSE at 20/1.

I'm sure the trends followers will be rolling around laughing at me for tipping up a five-year-old mare but this is an animal with serious talent and she's been given a chance at the weights.

Rated 150 after notching up four novice chases in a row earlier this year, she gets in here off 145 and is already guaranteed a run right at the bottom of the weights.

She struggled in the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase at Aintree at the end of last season but that was her eighth run of a busy campaign and I'm inclined to forgive her - she is a terrific jumper of a fence and could be dangerous off a lightweight if allowed to get into a good rhythm.

There was lots to like about her reappearance run at Ascot over an inadequate two miles and she may have well finished better than third had they not omitted the second last.

She got better after a few runs last season when stepped up in trip and this race looks to have been her target for some time.

At 20/1, she can go well for the excellent Venetia Williams.

[mayo]

Good thoughts johnno ...I don't think horses rated over 150 have a great record. Got to be something sneaking in that is laid out ....

[Old Vic]

Really wish we could get a better handle on the field. Jock em up thread needed ...