Arc thread

[mayo]

Cutting up. Camelot on retrieval mission ?

[Frankel]

Who will ride Camelot if he shows up?

On Tuesday Nathaniel joined Danedream and Snow Fairy on a growing list of absentees. He was ruled out of the Longchamp feature after returning unsatisfactory blood tests when he was found to be running a temperature.

James Wigan, racing manager to owner Lady Rothschild, said: “Considering how close we are to the race, we cannot consider running him.”

Aidan O’Brien has delayed his *decision on whether Camelot lines up until later this week and has already stated that his son, Joseph, will partner St Nicholas Abbey in the race. If Camelot is given the go-ahead a new jockey will have to be found for the colt.

Seventeen remain in the race after Nathaniel's defection, but Saonois, the French Derby winner, is widely expected to be supplemented on Thursday.

Japanese challenger Orfevre, winner of the Prix Foy, has strengthened as favourite, at around 5-2.

[Statto]

Draw Bias ?

When is the draw...good review here from Niall O'Connor on bettingmarket

Prix De L Arc De Triomphe Statistics 2012

The draw is of crucial importance in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, with only one winner in the last fourteen years (Sakhee) racing from a stall number higher than nine. In 2007 the heavily backed Epsom Derby winner Authorised was sunk from stall 12.

Thirteen of the last twenty five runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained three year olds. This trend has taken something of a knock in recent years, however, with the last three, three year old winners of the race, Sea the Stars, Workforce and Danedream hailing from Ireland, the UK and Germany respectively.

Nonetheless fifteen of the last eighteen runnings of the race have been won by horses aged three. The last five year old winner was Tony Bin in 1998, whilst the last four year old to triumph was Dylan Thomas in 2007.

Four year olds have won thirteen of the last forty runnings of the race, giving them a strike rate of 32.5%. However, only four four year olds have won in the last twenty years; a strike rate of only 20%.

The domination of three year olds in the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe can be partly atrributed to the fact that they get a significant weight allowance compared with the older horses that run in the race. Three year old fillies are asked to race of only 8-8, whilst three year old colts are asked to carry 8-11. This compares with older fillies who are asked to race off 9-2, with the older colts on 9-5. In the 2012 renewal, for example, the three year old filly Yellow and Green will enjoy a weight pull of 11 lb over Sea Moon and Meandre.

Horses above the age of five and those that have been peaked to take in mid Summer races such as the King George, do not have a great record in the race. A notable exception to the latter trend, was the 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars, who won both the Juddmonte at York and the Coral Eclipse, before going on to land the Arc. Workforce, the 2010 Arc winner was trounced in the King George before he went on to take the Arc. No horse has ever won both the St Leger and Arc in the same season.

It is something of a misnomer to say that fillies have a poor record in the race. Everything is relative and a strike rate of three winners from the last nineteen runnings of the race(16%) (Urban Sea, Zarkava and Danedream)belies the fact that there are usually no more than one or two fillies in the race each year.

The 2006 winner Rail Link gave the master trainer André Fabre a record-breaking seventh victory in the race; Trempolino (1987), Subotica (1992), Carnegie (1994), Peintre Celebre (1997), Sagamix (1998), Hurricane Run (2005), Rail Link (2006). All Fabre's Arc winners won the Prix Niel, except Peintre Celebre who finished second. In the 2012 renewal Fabre will be represented by Meandre, who ran second in the Foy, and Masterstroke. Fabre is on record as saying that Meandre is a horse capable of running to a place in the Arc. He has not said much regarding the well backed Masterstroke, who remains a classic Fabre dark horse, open to significant improvement. He is likely to be ridden on the day by big race specialist Barzalona and it would be no surprise were his odds to tumble before the big day.

The last horse to complete the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe double was the Lester Piggot trained Alleged in 1978. We then have to go back to 1956 to have found the next horse to have done so, the brilliant Ribot.

Eleven of the last sixteen winners of the Arc had run in one of the Arc trials, with the Prix Niel clearly the most signifciant of the lot. It should be noted, however, that whilst the last eight three-year-old winners of the Arc had all contested the Prix Niel, not all had actually won that trial. The 2004 Arc winner Bago, finished third in the Niel, having earlier in the season also landed the Grand Prix de Paris. Saonois, who won the 2012 renewal of the Prix Niel is a 12/1 with Les Bookmakers Anglais for the 2012 race.



In the last thirty odd years, only two horses have won the Prix Vermeille and the Arc in the same season; Three Troikas in 1979 and the brilliant Zarkava in 2008. Shareta, who finished third in the 2011 running of the Vermeille, before running a gallant second in the 2011 Arc, landed the 2012 running of the Vermeille. This was the first time that Shareta had won a race containing more than nine runners, and the suspicion remains that she will not quite get things all here own way in the Arc. If she were to, she might just be very hard to peg back. The Nicholas Clement Yellow and Green ran an eye catching race in fourth and is over-priced at 50/1 for the Arc.



The Arc winner has not prepped in the Prix Foy, however, since 1992. However, the Japanese horse Orfevre, a Triple Crown winner in his native land, is the clear favourite for the 2012 running of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe having landed the 2012 running of the Foy.

Since the brilliant Sea Bird landed the Arc/Epsom Derby double in 1965, twenty one other horses have attempted to pull off the double. Five have managed to imitate Sea Bird; the peerless Mill Reef (1971); Lammtarra (1995), Sinndar (2000) Sea the Stars (2009) and Workforce (2010) - a 23% strike rate. Of those twenty one, four were also placed in the Arc; Sir Ivor ( second 1968), Nijinski (second in 1970), Troy (third 1979) and O'Brien's High Chaparral (third in 2002). This gives us a win and place strike rate of 42% for Epsom Derby winners attempting the Arc double.

The master of Ballydoyle Aiden O'Brien won the Arc in 2007 with Dylan Thomas. On a percentage basis his record in the race is not great, not least because his horses have tended to peak in mid-season races. St Nicholas Abbey, Imperial Monarch and Camelot may represent him in the 2012 renewal. Camelot was peaked for the St Leger and put in his place by Encke. Moreover, a look at the 2000 Guineas and the Derby reveals that he has yet to beat a good Group 1 horse.

Godolphin have won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe three times, with; 1995 Lammtarra, 2001 Sakhee and 2002 - Marienbard.

Of jockeys still riding Olivier Peslier is the most successful Arc rider, winning it three times in succession between 1996 and 1998. Dettori has bagged two Arcs as have Kieren Fallon and Christophe Soumillon.

Japanese trained horses have tended to reward their legion of supporters, with big runs on the day. El Condor Pasa (1999) and Nakayama Festa (2010) finished second, whilst the heaily supported Deep Impact finished third in 2006 (later disqualified).



2012 Prix De L Arc De Triomphe


Horse Trainer Age Nationality Trial Draw Odds
Orfevre Ikee 4 Japanese Won Prix Foy ? 9/2
Camelot O'Brien 3 Ireland No ? 10/1
Saonois Gavrin 3 France Won Niel ? 10/1
Shareta Royer-Dupre 4 France Won Vermeille ? 10/1
St Nicholas Abbey O'Brien 5 Ireland No ? 14/1
Meandre Fabre 4 France 2nd Foy ? 16/1
Masterstroke Fabre 3 France No ? 16/1
Imperial Monarch O'Brien 3 Ireland No ? 25/1
Sea Moon Stoute 4 UK No ? 33/1
Galikova Head 4 France 5th Vermeille ? 33/1
Reliable Man Royer-Dupre 4 France No ? 40/1
Solemia Laffon-Parias 4 France 3rd Vermeille ? 40/1
Kesampour Delzangles 3 Spain 5th Prix Niel ? 40/1
Yellow and Green Clement 3 France 4th Vermeille ? 50/1
Avenito Ikee 8 Japan No ? 200/1
Ernest Hemingway O'Brien 3 Ireland No ? 200/1

Seletions: Saonois advised 33/1 Will be updated once draw is known.

[Statto]

Richarddunwoody.co.uk take on it

I've spent quite a lot of time in France over the past couple of years, so I know what this Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe means to the French racing fans and with this year's contest looking one of the most open for a while then we can all look forward to what should be a must-see race.

Much of the focus would, of course, have be on last year's winner - Danedream - as she was hoping to become the first back-to-back Arc winner since Alleged achieved the double way back in 1977-78.

However, this week connections have been left bitterly disappointed as an outbreak of equine flu in Germany has meant last year’s victor has been placed into quarantine and is now huge doubt to make the trip over to Longchamp for Sunday’s race.

The German track where Danedream is based in Cologne has been shut down for three months after a horse tested positive for an equine blood infection – meaning all horses based there cannot now leave the track.

Colonge racecourse general manager Benedikt Fassbender told Press Association Sport: "It's a nightmare.

"We are the biggest training centre in Germany and one horse has tested positive for equine infectious anaemia (EIA).

"For three months we are now in quarantine - no horses can come in to the track, and no horses can come out.

"It is a disaster, especially as Danedream cannot take part in the Arc at the orders of the special vets.

"Danedream has not been infected by the disease, but every horse will be tested for the infection in the next few days."
Patrick Barbe, racing manager for Danedream's part-owner, Teruya Yoshida, said he was "very pessimistic" about Danedream being given clearance to compete in the Arc.

He said: "At the moment, Danedream is very well and has not been infected.

"The only horse who has been infected is on the other side of the racecourse to Danedream.

"Because the Arc is only now in a few days' time, I'm very pessimistic she will be allowed to run."

Her defection is truly sad for all involved, but this now means that a lot of other trainers and owners won’t have last year’s winner to beat and this had thrown the race wide open – until Nathaniel joined her on the missing list too!

Yes, John Gosden’s charge looked to have every chance, especially with Danedream coming out a day earlier, but a bad blood test on Tuesday also ruled this year’s Eclipse winner out.

Therefore, the horse that most of the bookmakers are now making favourite heading into Sunday is the Japanese-trained Orfevre. This 4 year-old came over to land the Prix Foy - a leading Arc trial - last month and on that form looks a strong player. He's already amassed a staggering £7.7 million in prize money and is another that has winning form on a variety of different ground.

That said, he looks a tad on the short side for me now, while it's worth pointing out there were only five runners in his recent Longchamp win.

Yes, he's won races with 18 runners in before in his native land, but probably not against horses of this quality, so he'll need to step up again in my eyes, while it will be worth waiting to see what happens with the draw - a massive 9 of the last 10 winners hailed from stall 8 or lower.

Therefore, being drawn wide and having to either come around the whole field in the closing stages or tuck in from the off can have its disadvantages around the right-handed Longchamp track - the last horse to win from a double-figure berth was classy Dalakhani back in 2003.

Aidan O'Brien is sure to be mob-handed, as he looks to gain some compensation with Camelot after his shock St Leger defeat. 3 year-olds do have the best recent record in the race - winning 8 of the last 9 renewals - while recent English Derby winners, Sea The Stars and Workforce, showed that landing the Epsom Classic is a strong plus. He is, however, not a certain runner at this stage with connections set to make a decision on his participation later in the week, but there was a tiny bit of interest in him in the betting on Monday.

The other Ballydoyle big-gun will be St Nicholas Abbey, who was last seen running third behind Snow Fairy and Nathaniel in the Irish Champion Stakes. On that form he's got a bit to find, but you can expect the step back to 1m4f to help as he's look a tiny bit one-paced at this level in the past.

He was also third behind Frankel two runs ago in the Juddmonte International at York over 1m2f, and when you look at the way Sir Henry's horse disposed of him that day I guess it's just a shame that the world's highest-rated horse isn't having his swansong on Sunday - now that would be a fitting end to what's been an unbelievable career!

Finally, if you like your trends then here are the key ones ahead of Sunday's Arc.....

10/10 - Won a Group 1 race previously
9/10 - Won from stall 8 or lower
9/10 - Raced 4 or more times that season
8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/10 - Won by a 3 years-old
8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously
8/10 - Won from stall 6 or lower
8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously
8/10 - Won their last race
8/10 - Won at least 5 times previously
8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/10 - Won by a 3 years-old
7/10 - Had raced at Longchamp before
6/10 - Had won at Longchamp before
5/10 - Won by a French-based yard
5/10 - Favourites placed
4/10 - Raced at Longchamp last time out
3/10 - Favourites to win
2/10 - Female winners
2/10 - Trained by Andre Fabre
2/10 - Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/10 - Won by a UK-based yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Trainer Andre Fabre has won the race 7 times

[flatman]

A bit more interesting now



Having ruined his immaculate record at Doncaster last month, Godolphin yesterday offered connections of Camelot remarkable redress. Frankie Dettori, employed by Sheikh Mohammed's stable throughout its prolonged rivalry with Ballydoyle, will ride the Derby winner for John Magnier and his Coolmore partners in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Sunday.

The mere confirmation of Camelot's participation, following a workout at Ballydoyle, represented precious succour for a race that had shed three key contenders since the weekend. But the nomination of his new jockey amply restored all the intrigue lost with Danedream, Nathaniel and Snow Fairy.

True, it was not wholly unexpected, despite the notorious froideur between the rival empires after Dettori won the 2005 St Leger for Aidan O'Brien, Coolmore's principal trainer, on Scorpion. To Magnier's candid bemusement, Dettori subsequently went so far as to express public contrition for a perceived affront to his boss. But Magnier is too smart a businessman to allow past differences to intrude on something as important as the renewal of Camelot's reputation, following his shock defeat by Godolphin's Encke in the St Leger. And, as noted yesterday, the sheikh himself surely feels obliged to afford Dettori greater latitude this time round – having dismayed the Italian by fast-tracking young Mickael Barzalona, hired last winter, to immediate parity at Godolphin.

Camelot has hitherto been ridden by O'Brien's son, Joseph, whose minimum weight is a couple of pounds over the 8st 11lb Camelot is set to carry. Ryan Moore has not ridden since breaking a wrist in August, but would be claimed for Sea Moon regardless; and Seamus Heffernan failed to make the most of his opportunity on So You Think last year. That reiterated the tactical challenge of a big field round the dizzy bends of Longchamp – where Dettori has always been especially masterful. Magnier decided it would be puerile to look elsewhere, when the world's top jockey was without a mount after riding in 24 consecutive Arcs.

"What an opportunity, and honour, to be asked to ride the Guineas and Derby winner in the Arc," Dettori said. "This year Godolphin never had a horse for the race, so I was standing by [for] Snow Fairy as I think Ryan was going to ride Sea Moon. But the last two to three days were pretty unbelievable: Snow Fairy had an injury, Joseph couldn't do the weight, and the ride became available. Let's hope the horse is in tip-top shape. It's been a pretty long season now but if the Camelot we know turns up he should have a very good chance."

That is the rub. Camelot has still had only six races in his life, and enjoyed a good break before the Leger. But he did have a hard race there, and will have had only 22 days to absorb it.

"He was ridden to stay," Dettori told the Racing UK channel. "It was a stop-start pace, though I still think the horse quickened well at the end. He looks tremendously well balanced. He came into his own in the Derby over a mile and a half. He spreadeagled the field and the Arc will be his absolute cup of tea."

[Statto]

JAPANESE raider Orfevre will become the first horse since Dalakhani in 2003 to defy a double-figure draw in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triopmhe if he is successful on Sunday.

The draw for the Longchamp highlight was made on Friday morning with Orfevre in 18 and main market-rival Camelot in five.

He is now as short as 5-2 favourite, while Orfevre is 4-1 with Paddy Power.

Shareta will break from stall 11, while Saonois is in two. Three of the last seven winners have raced from stall six, which is where Solemia is berthed.

Sea Moon and Masterstroke are in 16 and 17 with the supplemented Great Heavens in seven. Camelot's Aidan O'Brien-trained stablemate St Nicholas Abbey is in ten.

The going at Longchamp was described as soft on Friday morning. Light showers are forecast on Saturday, but it is set to be dry on Sunday.

France Galop's Francois Boulard said: "The ground shouldn't provide a handicap to anyone."

[Old Vic]

Greg Wood: There have been some significant moves in the betting for Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe following the draw for stall positions this morning. Orfevre's reward for travelling halfway around the world from Japan is a draw in box 18 on the wide outside, the worst position of all, and Yasua Ikee's colt is now top-priced at 4-1 from 7-2.

A further drift is likely if money comes for Camelot, who has a perfect pitch in five, and the 3-1 about the Derby winner is starting to dry up with most bookies now going 11-4 or 5-2.

Masterstroke, from the French arm of the Godolphin operation, has also fared badly and will start just inside Orfevre from 17. He is out to 12-1 from 10-1, but Saonois, the French Derby winner, is closer to 8-1 generally than the overnight 9-1 after getting stall two. John Gosden's Great Heavens, supplemented to the race on Thursday, has also got a good draw in seven and is generally a 12-1 chance, having been laid at 999-1 on Betfair when she seemed unlikely to run.



Trainer John Gosden, jockey William Buick and owner Lady Rothschild suffered major disappointment earlier this week when leading contender Nathaniel had to be ruled out of the race due to an unsatisfactory blood test.

The team shuffled their pack and decided to supplement brilliant Irish Oaks heroine Great Heavens, who is a full-sister to her esteemed stable companions.

Buick believes Great Heavens [stall seven] has plenty going for her in the Arc. He said: "It's a sporting decision by the owners and she is a filly with a lot of ability. "She's in good form at home and with Nathaniel not running, she deserves to take her chance in the race."

Completing the British challenge is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Sea Moon, who has had a light campaign. The four-year-old won his first two starts of the year and although he has not been seen since finishing fifth in the King George, he has been well backed in recent days and Ryan Moore has recovered from injury in time to take the ride. However, he has not fared well in the draw, starting from a wide berth in stall 16.

[Cooper]

Aidan O'Brien is hoping the rain stays away as he prepares to send Camelot for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday.

The 2,000 Guineas, Epsom and Irish Derby winner will bid to redeem his reputation after losing his unbeaten record in the St Leger at Doncaster last time.

Frankie Dettori will take over on the colt, with stable jockey Joseph O'Brien unable to do the weight on the three-year-old.

“We're hoping for not too much rain – we're hoping for English good to soft,” said O'Brien at Dundalk this evening.

“He's in good form since Doncaster and the 1m6f might have extended him too far there. We've always thought he was very special.”

O'Brien also revealed that he is very happy with the booking of Dettori for Camelot:-

“Frankie is a great rider, he has all the experience in the world, and we're delighted to have him.”

Joseph will now get the leg up on St Nicholas Abbey and O'Brien senior said of his other charge:-

“I'm very happy with him. His preparation has gone brilliantly and he loves a mile-and-a-half.”

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Fine ride on the winner