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2015 Supreme Novices Hurdle

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  • 2015 Supreme Novices Hurdle

    Supreme Novice Trends

    <iframe src="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1cMJLOGGm87sQluD3SDrPIdXZCFcElwYx0NeGA38azIc/embed?start=false&loop=true&delayms=60000" frameborder="0" width="660" height="400" allowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" webkitallowfullscreen="true"></iframe>



    <iframe width=720 height= 720 src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Qfx96vbrTCS9ktGdtyLOJK0NDc4nz6jb_9ksEIKCww/pubhtml?gid=1781017040&amp;single=true&amp;widget= true&amp;headers=false"></iframe>
    Last edited by Lester; 6 March 2015, 06:32 AM.

  • #2
    WPM confusing us again look at this on Tell Us More

    A mile and a half victor at the Curragh, in his days on the flat, Mckinley (33/1) showed that bit of pace to outpoint two previous point-to-point winners, Tell Us More and Free Expression, in the first Grade 1 at Naas, the Lawlor's Hotel Novice Hurdle.

    Third string for Gigginstown House Stud and Willie Mullins under Paul Townend, Mckinley was coming back to action quickly after pulling up at Leopardstown just last Saturday.

    However that was obviously just a temporary issue and here in the closing stages he mastered his fellow Gigginstown House and Mullins runner, Tell Us More, by three parts of a length.

    That fellow, the choice of the owner's retained rider, Bryan Cooper, went off odds-on and put in a bold-jumping display from the front until succumbing in the latter part of the two and a half miler.

    Free Expression (13/8 2nd fav) meanwhile, didn't pass the jumping test, getting a few of his hurdles wrong, and ended up a length and a half back in third.

    "This fella is improving all the time but I didn't think he had improved that much," said Mullins.

    "I only threw him into the race at the last minute as I thought 'where else do I go with him.'

    "Paul gave him a great ride. The improvement I've seen in his homework is vindicated.

    "Tell Us More jumped fantastic and raced great. He probably had to do all the donkey work and that probably just told.

    "He beat off Free Expression, the one that we thought would jump and stay as well as anything.

    "It's possible Mckinley's flat race experience might have paid off. Tell Us More had three races where he didn't have to fight or battle and inexperience might have beaten him.

    "We'll look at the Deloitte now for them. There are a few novice hurdles around and we'll see how they come out of that and see how next weeks novices get on.

    "We thought Tell Us More was a stayer but we might think about coming back in trip now.

    "Killer Crow (second last under Ruby Walsh) probably wants further and better ground."

    Comment


    • #3
      Starting to get into the Cheltenham frame of mind so did a bit of analysis on record of big 4 in the race.

      Of late it has really been worth following Walsh, AP and Geraghty - forecast/tricast potential if you stuck with them.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
        Starting to get into the Cheltenham frame of mind so did a bit of analysis on record of big 4 in the race.

        Of late it has really been worth following Walsh, AP and Geraghty - forecast/tricast potential if you stuck with them.

        http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-...le-Jockeys-153
        Good stuff there Vic.

        Duovan out at the weekend but already 5/1 in Antepost market. I think I ill wait until morning of the race now.
        What will AP have this year ?

        Comment


        • #5
          <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Douvan puts his Supreme Novice credentials to test in Grade 2 <a href="https://twitter.com/punchestownrace">@punchestownrace</a> tomorrow won by Vautour last year <a href="http://t.co/QP68jjIXZq">pic.twitter.com/QP68jjIXZq</a></p>&mdash; Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/553520646345744384">January 9, 2015</a></blockquote>
          <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

          Comment


          • #6
            I think I might have underestimated Douvan.

            Impossible to oppose after that ... Though I did note the whatever race he goes for stuff from Ruby

            Comment


            • #7
              Looked better than anything VT or FH did last year in my view. absolute lump job.

              Comment


              • #8
                I don't like taking shorts prices about Novices. I am guessing Mullins will have at least three in the race Douvan - Ruby alvisio Ville AP Nicols canyon Townend - could easily have a Gigginstown runner too.

                Anyone know what Mordin said about lami serge in the Irish Field ?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Douvan did look good yesterday, but, again, in a small field on soft ground against low rated stayers, different test at Cheltenham on all fronts. He's also very short for the Neptune so it's difficult to know which race he'll be aimed at, another one to leave until much nearer the time for me. He did seem to jump really well though, unlike Faugheen who jumps better the faster they go, this could be a chink in the armour of Douvan, we won't know how good a jumper he is at speed, probably until the day of the race.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Visually Douvan looked good but the form of first run - beat a subsequent Grade1 winner reads better.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RP Ratings still have <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/lamiserge?src=hash">#lamiserge</a> ahead of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/douvan?src=hash">#douvan</a> <a href="http://t.co/cCK9HLcc6S">http://t.co/cCK9HLcc6S</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cheltfest?src=hash">#cheltfest</a> <a href="http://t.co/6ky4KNtpbg">pic.twitter.com/6ky4KNtpbg</a></p>&mdash; Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/554225018541187072">January 11, 2015</a></blockquote>
                      <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>




                      <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>.<a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948">@Timeform1948</a> plot the path to Supreme victory <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Vautour?src=hash">#Vautour</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Douvan?src=hash">#Douvan</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LAmiSerge?src=hash">#LAmiSerge</a>. <a href="http://t.co/HGSlPty5QG">pic.twitter.com/HGSlPty5QG</a></p>&mdash; At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/554616800873168897">January 12, 2015</a></blockquote>
                      <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Ellison targeting Sky Bet Supreme Scottish Trial

                        The Road to Cheltenham moves north of the border on Sunday, February 1, when Musselburgh stages the Scottish Cheltenham Trials Day.

                        Opening the card at Musselburgh is the £20,000 Sky Bet Supreme Scottish Trial Novices' Hurdle (1.00pm) over two miles, which is the penultimate contest in the series of trials sponsored by Sky Bet ahead of the Grade One Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday, March 10.

                        Heading the market at 3/1 with Sky Bet is El Namoose (John Ferguson), successful in three of his four starts in bumpers and a comfortable four-length winner on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon on November 11.

                        Malton handler Brian Ellison has two entries headed by The Grey Taylor, who is a 5/1 shot with Sky Bet. The six-year-old was formerly trained by Steve Gollings and made a winning debut over hurdles in a two-mile contest at Wetherby on November 1.

                        The Grey Taylor was subsequently moved to Ellison and doubled up under a penalty over the same course and distance on November 26. He surrendered his unbeaten record at Wetherby on December 27, when beaten a short-head by smart Flat recruit A Boy Named Suzi.

                        Ellison reported: "The Grey Taylor is flying and definitely runs on Sunday.

                        "I was pleased with his first two starts. He won really well the first day and last time he was trying to give a lot of weight away to a good Flat horse. I know the winner has been beaten since but he probably did not stay.

                        "I think The Grey Taylor has come on again and better ground will improve him as well. Musselburgh won't be a problem to him - he has plenty of pace - and we have had this race in mind for a while.

                        "We have given him an entry in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham."

                        Ellison is also planning to run Amaze (25/1), who will be having his first start over hurdles since finishing sixth in a Perth juvenile hurdle in September, 2011. The seven-year-old was last seen out when second in a 10-furlong handicap at Newcastle in June.

                        Ellison added: "Amaze will run as well. He basically doesn't like the starting stalls, so I thought we would give him a shot over hurdles."

                        There are three entries from Nicky Henderson, including the 4/1 second favourite Cardinal Walter. A smart middle-distance handicapper on the Flat, Cardinal Walter scored by seven lengths on his hurdling debut at Doncaster on December 12. The master of Seven Barrows could also run Sweet Deal (7/1), who won on his first two starts over hurdles but struggled in handicap company last time out and the J P McManus-owned Saint Charles (8/1), who got off the mark at Doncaster on January 9.

                        Some Plan (Tom George, 7/1) only found the smart Seedling a length and a half too strong at Cheltenham in December, while the two entries from Donald McCain - Roserrow (8/1) and Starchitect (10/1) - are both dual already winners this season. Starchitect chased home the high-class Peace And Co in a Grade Two contest at Doncaster in December, while Roserrow was a course and distance winner last time out on November 6.

                        The one chance of the prize staying in Scotland could come from Stylish Chap (Lucinda Russell, 16/1), who scored over the course and distance last time out on January 5.

                        Completing the entries are Restraint Of Trade (Jennie Candlish, 25/1), formerly decent on the Flat for Godolphin and successful over hurdles at Bangor in December, and the Irish-trained Ashjar (Colin McBratney, 40/1) who won at Tramore back in May but has been largely disappointing since.

                        Sky Bet Supreme Scottish Trial Novices' Hurdle, Sky Bet odds: 3/1 El Namoose; 4/1 Cardinal Walter; 5/1 Some Plan, The Grey Taylor; 7/1 Sweet Deal; 8/1 Roserrow, Saint Charles; 10/1 Starchitect; 16/1 Stylish Chap; 25/1 Amaze, Restraint Of Trade, 40/1 Ashjar

                        Michael Shinners, Racing PR Manager for Sky Bet, said: "We are delighted to extend the Road to the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle to Musselburgh and have been rewarded with what looks like an excellent race.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Walsh confirmed Douvan on course for the Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for which he has been backed into as short as 15-8, rather than the longer Neptune Novices' Hurdle.

                          "It is hard to imagine you would send him over further than two miles having won around the inside track at Punchestown," Walsh told Racing UK. "He only did as much as I asked him to do there but he jumped brilliantly and travelled super. He has plenty of pace, although he did beat stayers there.

                          "I'd have maximum respect for L'Ami Serge. It takes a good horse to do what he did at Sandown in the Tolworth. I was very impressed with him there."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            ive got Alvisio Ville at 33-1 for supreme, hoping he runs in the deloitte and proves to be as good as they think.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by roose88 View Post
                              ive got Alvisio Ville at 33-1 for supreme, hoping he runs in the deloitte and proves to be as good as they think.
                              fry keeps talking about jolly allan for the Supreme. Would they run both ?

                              Comment

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