Boxing Day Racing Thread

[Old Vic]

King George has its own thread but might as well catch the rest here ...

Kempton

Kauto Star Race aka the Feltham

1 55162 Annacotty19 b1 5 11-7 Martin Keighley83 Ian Popham 130 114 144
2 23143 Buachaill Alainn12 p 6 11-7 Peter Bowen33 Richard Johnson 132 72 141
3 22-111 Green Flag26 6 11-7 Lucinda Russell63 Tom Scudamore 145 137 156
4 122-21 Just A Par28 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls50 Daryl Jacob 148 138 164
5 62-132 Third Intention28 t 6 11-7 Colin Tizzard67 Joe Tizzard 147 134 163

[Old Vic]

Kempton Christmas Hurdle (looks like a match)

6 212-11 The New One12 5 11-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies57 Sam Twiston-Davies 167 125 173
4 1121-1 My Tent Or Yours26 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson50 A P McCoy 160 160 170
3 31/4-3 Grumeti26 5 11-7 Alan King56 Robert Thornton 151 139 163
5 332-12 Sametegal39 t 4 11-7 Paul Nicholls50 Daryl Jacob 150 141 156
2 1411-6 Duke Of Navan26 5 11-7 Nicky Richards33 Brian Harding 145 127 155
1 PP-PPP Chapel House78 10 11-7 Richard Harper Thomas Cheesman 74 — —

Christmas Hurdle 2014 Prices as at 24/12/2013
The New One	1/1	11/10	1/1	1/1
My Tent or Yours	11/10	11/10	11/10	11/10
Grumeti	18/1	14/1	16/1	16/1
Samtegal	18/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Duke of Navan	40/1	25/1	40/1	40/1
Chapel House	500/1	500/1	500/1	500/1

[Old Vic]

Leopardstown

Racing Post Novices Chase

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
3 122-12 Defy Logic39 h 6 11-12 Paul Nolan33 Mark Walsh 148 138 154
2 3113-1 Champagne Fever40 6 11-12 W P Mullins67 R Walsh — 109 152
4 186-13 Road To Riches25 6 11-12 Noel Meade100 P Carberry 147 125 150
6 24-12 Trifolium19 p 6 11-12 C Byrnes Davy Russell 141 116 149
5 312-83 Ted Veale39 6 11-12 A J Martin40 Robbie Power — 120 148
1 14-115 Art Of Logistics25 5 11-12 D T Hughes25 Bryan Cooper 138 123 144

[racecaller13]

Christmas Hurdle Trends

The WilliamHill.com Christmas Hurdle is part of the supporting card to the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The Fighting Fifth Hurdle has proven the key trial race for this in recent times with 5 of the last 10 winners running in it prior to taking this.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (for age purposes we’ll assume 2010-11 renewal was run in 2010)

4yo: 0-1-13

5yo: 3-1-14

6yo: 5-4-18

7yo: 1-0-4

8yo: 0-2-11

9yo: 1-1-4

10yo: 0-1-1

8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, both exceptions were previous winners.

4yos have a poor record, having gained just 1 place from 13 runners, this included last year’s unplaced favourite, Countrywide Flame.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ in last hurdles start

7 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (3 exceptions finished in first 3 in previous year's race)

8 of 10 winners had had 6 to 17 previous hurdles starts

7 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1

5 of 10 winners had won at Kempton previously (4 of 5 others having first course start)



Other Races

Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 142F134 (2-1-7)

Top Novice Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 4F1 (1-0-3)

Masterson Holdings Hurdle winner (Sametegal): 23 (0-1-2)

William Hill Download The App Hurdle winner (The New One): 62P (0-1-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 31132

5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's race, finishing 14231

4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 5P01

3 of 10 winners ran in the Tipperary Hurdle, finishing 131

3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 443

3 of 4 second season hurdler winners ran in Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 712

2 of 10 winners ran in Contenders Hurdle, finishing 11 (both Binocular)

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 12

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 34



Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-0-9) has won the last 3 runnings, twice with Binocular and last year with the ill-fated Darlan. He also trained the winner in 2000 & 2001.

Paul Nicholls (0-1-11) has a surprisingly bad record having gained just 1 place from 11 runners in the past 10 years.

Alan King (0-1-2) has saddled Raya Star to finish 2nd in 2012 & Penzance 3rd in 2006.

Irish trained runners (5-1-6) have dominated in recent years, winning 5 of the last 9 runnings and they have not been represented in past 3 renewals. Noel Meade (4-1-5), has been most responsible for most of this success. No Irish runner entered this year.



Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter

The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 10/1 and all 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting.

Favourite (4-2-10) has won 4 of last 10 renewals but shows a level stakes loss of 0.90.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 3 in last season’s race)

- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

- Posted an RPR of 154+ on last hurdles start

- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle (or grade 2 winner that placed in a grade 1)

- Previously run 6 to 17 times over hurdles

- Course winner (or having first run at Kempton)

- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth last time out

- Finished in first 4 in 2012 Christmas, Punchestown Champion and/or Tipperary Hurdle

- Ran in Champion Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham 2013

- Trained by Nicky Henderson

- Priced 7/1 or lower
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....YMry1nkP.dpuf

[racecaller13]

Feltham Chase Stats

The Kauto Star Feltham Novice Chase takes the place at Kempton on Boxing Day on the supporting card to the King George VI Chase. The race is seen as one of the best guides to the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The race was abandoned in 2010 so we will focus on last 10 runnings from 2002 to 2012.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-0-2

5yo: 1-3-14

6yo: 6-2-24

7yo: 1-3-13

8yo: 1-3-8

9yo+: 0-0-3

No strong trends on ages, 6yos have won 6 of last 10 from 38.7% of total runners.



Breeding

French bred: 5-2-13

Irish bred: 3-8-28

GB bred: 2-0-10

NZ bred: 0-1-2

German bred: 0-0-1

5 of 10 winners (last 3) were French bred and they represented just 20.3% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 142+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases

10 of 10 winners had won over 50% of their chase starts

9 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 14 hurdles races (exception ran in just 2)

6 of 10 winners (last 4) had won a graded hurdle

8 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a class 1 chase (1 exception finished 2nd in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 6F+

6 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury

The 10 winners had run in a combined 34 chases the season they won it, finishing in first 2 in 32 of those 36 runs (2 exceptions were a fall and a 4th in Paddy Power Gold Cup)



Other Races

Worcester Novices' Chase winner (Just A Par): 521211 (3-2-6)

Betfair Cash Out Novices' Chase winner (Black Thunder): 55 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in Worcester Novice Chase, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Ryman Stationery Novice Chase last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Rising Star Novice Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup last time, finishing 12

3 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 728

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 12

7 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 World Hurdle, 2 Neptune Investments, 2 Coral Cup)



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-2-9) has gained 2 wins & 2 seconds from 9 runners in last 10 runnings.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-2) and Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) have both won the once since 2002.

Oliver Sherwood has not had a runner in this race since 1998 when winning it with Lord Of The River.



Price

9 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting

Only 1 winner has gone off higher than 5/2 in the last 10 renewals.

Favourite (7-1-11) have won 7 of last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.68.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French breds do well

- Won last time out, posting an RPR of 149+

- Ran in past 50 days

- Won at least twice over fences

- Won over 50% of chase starts

- Won a class 1 chase or hurdle

- Won over 2M 6F or further

- Run in no more than 14 hurdles races

- Finished in first 2 in Worcester, Rising Star and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase

- Ran in a hurdle over 2M 4F+ at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival (especially World Hurdle)

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard

- From the first 2 in the betting (no bigger than 5/2)

Offline
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....nJ35bDxr.dpuf