Scottish Grand National 2013

[Lester]

Think Michel Le Bon goes to Aintree from the 3 mile handicap won by don't push it on national day.

[Hoof]

QUENTIN COLLOGNES
9 gr g Dom Alco - Grace Collognes.
Looks to be improving over fences and won second chase on latest start over three and a quarter miles at Doncaster March 2 beating Mr Moss half a length. Had dropped from 134 to 127 and now 135 - highest ever hurdle mark.
"He's going for the Scottish National and he won't run before because it doesn't fit his build up. He was well-fancied for it last year when he pulled up and that was due to a wind problem which has since been tickled a bit."

[Lester]

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
F-4PPP Weird Al14 10 Donald McCain 158 98 166
1U355U Roberto Goldback14 11 Nicky Henderson 152 134 155
21113 Rocky Creek15 7 Paul Nicholls 152 132 154
86203 Teaforthree14 9 Rebecca Curtis 151 150 158
112710 Across The Bay14 9 Donald McCain 150 99 160
6-P73P Ballabriggs14 12 Donald McCain 150 125 135
3-72P0 Join Together14 8 Paul Nicholls 150 144 154
0F631P Chicago Grey14 10 Gordon Elliott 149 102 153
54126P Cannington Brook14 9 Colin Tizzard 148 132 155
142327 Houblon Des Obeaux38 6 Venetia Williams 148 128 150
34-222 Cappa Bleu14 11 Evan Williams 147 145 151
1F223 HadrianŽs Approach38 6 Nicky Henderson 147 102 149
8-6435 Rare Bob14 11 D T Hughes 146 120 152
35U255 Hold On Julio13 10 Alan King 145 133 154
133-U2 Our Mick39 7 Donald McCain 145 104 152
0710/P Silver By Nature63 11 Lucinda Russell 145 -1 —
F21521 Poungach35 7 Paul Nicholls 144 130 148
341361 Same Difference37 7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 144 126 148
PU-071 Always Right49 11 John Wade 143 86 149
2-121F Rival DŽEstruval38 8 Pauline Robson 143 120 147
6-142B Garleton13 12 Maurice Barnes 142 124 150
P1344U Knockara Beau39 10 George Charlton 142 120 155
11611P Lost Glory14 8 Jonjo OŽNeill 142 98 146
U1F111 Well Refreshed63 9 Gary Moore 142 98 151
F2-110 Wyck Hill56 9 David Bridgwater 142 100 146
201213 Godsmejudge38 7 Alan King 139 90 144
B-8917 Soll14 8 Jo Hughes 139 120 144
P1-332 Mr Moss49 8 Evan Williams 138 125 142
F321P On Trend37 7 Nick Gifford 138 106 140
F4309 Saint Are14 7 Tim Vaughan 138 103 145
3PP45P Becauseicouldntsee14 10 N F Glynn 137 113 135
5F604 Problema Tic14 7 David Pipe 137 116 133
1F1387 Tour Des Champs14 6 Nigel Twiston-Davies 136 98 146
2P-771 Quentin Collonges49 9 Henry Daly 135 120 139
8-114P Rose Of The Moon38 8 David OŽMeara 135 118 146
P45F51 Auroras Encore14 11 Sue Smith 133 146 152
1425P Bradley98 9 Fergal OŽBrien 133 115 141
341F-4 Mister Marker65 9 Nicky Richards 133 77 139
60264P Mr Moonshine14 9 Sue Smith 133 119 148
673116 Nuts N Bolts39 7 Lucinda Russell 133 90 140
23212P Rigadin De Beauchene42 8 Venetia Williams 133 84 142
334321 Big Occasion35 6 David Pipe 132 128 134
265P0 Major Malarkey14 10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 101 139
22-21 Night Force49 10 Brendan Powell 132 63 130
65212P Relax37 8 Venetia Williams 131 131 142
5-421P Russian War14 10 Gordon Elliott 131 71 125
22P323 White Star Line39 9 D T Hughes 131 89 137
222F25 Fill The Power35 7 Sue Smith 130 119 139
2121F Nodforms Violet176 9 Karen McLintock 130 101 133
23P25P Viking Blond14 8 Nigel Twiston-Davies 130 79 137
50-181 Neptune Equester24 10 Brian Ellison 129 64 121
241490 Quietly Fancied19 9 Oliver McKiernan 129 127 132
P1P5F State Benefit15 8 Nicky Henderson 129 111 135
70165P Pentiffic13 10 Venetia Williams 128 116 131
P1621P Storm Survivor14 7 Jonjo OŽNeill 127 103 130
3-411P Cool Operator35 10 Philip Kirby 126 98 135
4-F131 Monsieur Cadou21 8 Tom George 126 76 126
05P112 Rebeccas Choice35 10 Dai Burchell 126 122 127
14P-53 Beneficial Reform49 8 James Ewart 125 114 129
131873 Lively Baron42 8 Donald McCain 125 125 135
1F1F2 Isla Pearl Fisher13 10 N W Alexander 124 76 127
808313 Handy Andy21 7 Colin Tizzard 123 112 127
1-6P63 Air Force One102 11 Lawney Hill 122 80 90
5318- Gurtacrue401 8 Evan Williams 122 — —
3-P9P2 King Fontaine21 10 Malcolm Jefferson 116 98 127
3P-238 Captain Americo21 11 James Ewart 115 90 129
2/P023 Quarl Ego18 9 Lawney Hill 105 57 120
155-P1 Dermatologiste24 10 Caroline Bailey 101 86 107
8511-P Lion Na Bearnai140 11 Thomas Gibney — -1 —
PP-00P Sarteano18 10 D T Hughes — -1 84
81406 Sole Witness17 9 C A McBratney — 127 138
114208 Tarquinius14 10 Gordon Elliott — 131 141
343576 Whatuthink34 11 Oliver McKiernan — 77 112

[Lester]

Aurora Encore could easily win this too...

[Hoof]

Scottish National Odds

Rival dEstruval (8), Auroras Encore (12), Our Mick (12), Rocky Creek (12), Always Right (14), Big Occasion (14), Quentin Collonges (14), Same Difference (14), Wyck Hill (14), Cappa Bleu (16), Chicago Grey (16), Godsmejudge (16), Hadrians Approach (16), Houblon Des Obeaux (16), Monsieur Cadou (16), Neptune Equester (16), Nuts N Bolts (16), Teaforthree (16), Well Refreshed (16), Bradley (20) , Join Together (20), King Fontaine (20), Lost Glory (20), Rare Bob (20), Soll (20), Knockara Beau (25), Mister Marker (25), Mr Moss (25), Rebeccas Choice (25), Relax (25), Rigadin De Beauchene (25), Roberto Goldback (25), Rose Of The Moon (25), Saint Are (25), Tarquinius (25), White Star Line (25), Across The Bay (33), Ballabriggs (33), Becauseicouldntsee (33), Beneficial Reform (33), Cannington Brook (33), Fill The Power (33), Handy Andy (33), Hold On Julio (33), Isla Pearl Fisher (33), Lion Na Bearnai (33), Lively Baron (33), Major Malarkey (33), Night Force (33), Nodforms Violet (33), On Trend (33), Poungach (33), Problema Tic (33), Russian War (33), Sole Witness (33), Storm Survivor (33), Tour Des Champs (33), Viking Blond (33), Captain Americo (40), Cool Operator (40), Garleton (40), Mr Moonshine (40), Pentiffic (40), Quietly Fancied (40), Silver By Nature (40), State Benefit (40), Weird Al (40), Whatuthink (40), Gurtacrue (50), Sarteano (50), Quarl Ego (66), Air Force One (100), Dermatologiste (100)

[Old Vic]

Mania said: "I saw my own GP and then he sent the results of some tests to Dr Turner and, thankfully, he is happy for me to ride again.

"I'm delighted as I wouldn't wanted to have missed riding him (Auroras Encore). The plan is to come back at Ayr on Friday."

Auroras Encore, a 66-1 winner of the Aintree spectacular, will have to carry top-weight of 11st 12lb as he aims to become the first horse since the legendary Red Rum in 1974 to complete the rarely-attempted National double.

Trainer Sue Smith is happy to let her pride and joy line up, provided conditions do not become too testing.

Smith said: "We had a pretty good idea he'd end up with top-weight, so that isn't a surprise. It obviously doesn't make life easy for him and we know it's a very big task, but the horse is in grand order and went really well this morning.

"If I had any doubts or second thoughts about his well-being at all, we wouldn't send him, but at this minute in time it looks like we might let him take his chance.

"If it absolutely poured down with rain and the ground went very soft, that would be a big no-no, but if the ground stays as it is, then he'll probably run."

Bingley-based Smith is set to be doubly-represented in the extended four-mile feature, with Fill The Power now guaranteed a run after climbing to 26th in the weights.

Smith said: "He gives you the impression a trip like this will suit him and if he jumps well, off a nice weight (10st 8lb), he could run a nice race."

A total of 37 horses have been confirmed for the Ayr feature, including the Pauline Robson-trained ante-post favourite Rival D'Estruval.

David Pipe looks set to saddle Big Occasion, winner of last month's Midlands National at Uttoxeter.

Other leading contenders include John Wade's Always Right, Henry Daly's Quentin Collonges, Donald McCain's Our Mick and Godsmejudge for trainer Alan King who is hoping for more rain in Scotland.

"They have had 5.5mm of rain overnight up there, with a possible further 11mm expected before the meeting starts, so it looks like being soft ground, which will be a plus to the chance of Godsmejudge in the Scottish National," the Barbury Castle handler reported on his website www.alankingracing.co.uk.

The sponsor's make Rival D'Estruval the 6-1 favourite, with Auroras Encore double the price at 12-1.

Their David Stevens said: "Rival D'Estruval's owner, Ray Anderson Green, has won the Coral Scottish Grand National twice with Merigo, and his runner is a worthy favourite having recovered from a fall when travelling well in the four-miler at last month's Cheltenham Festival.

"However, he should face stern opposition on Saturday, with Auroras Encore sure to be popular following his Aintree heroics, despite a weights rise that provoked trainer's husband, Harvey Smith, to give a verbal two-fingers to the handicapper!"

[Old Vic]

Stats http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/...ional-Stats-88

[Old Vic]

Will Hayler

Aintree have gone public and effectively stated that the going for the National will never again be quicker than good to soft, but the situation is not so often the same at Ayr, where although the odd spring shower can produce unseasonably soft going by and large racing tends to take place on top of the ground.

That's good news for Auroras Encore, who came alive at Aintree when getting his feet out of the slop for the first time this winter, but certainly not enough to make me want to back him at 12/1 to do the double.

Neptune Collonges tried to double up last year but his previous exertions quite clearly told as he trailed home in sixth and quite simply it's a task that proves beyond most that attempt it.

Earth Summit won both races, but needed four years between the contests to do so, and the last - and indeed only - horse to win both in the same year was Red Rum in 1974.

I'm no great trends man, but even I can see that it's not looking good for Auroras Encore, not least because of an 11lb hike in the weights for his day in the sun.

Favourite across the board is Rival D'Estruval, a horse who takes a route into this race that has proved more profitable having lined up in the National Hunt Chase last time out.

Cheltenham's four-miler has become a far more competitive contest than it used to be since the entry conditions saw it opened to all novices and it says plenty for this horse that he was bang in contention when falling two out.

Hot Weld won the National Hunt Chase in 2006 before taking this race (and the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown a week later) the following season, while Beshabar won here in 2011 having finished second in the same Cheltenham contest.

Rival D'Estruval was nursed into the race from off the pace before his fall, but I don't have any doubts about his stamina and he could well be ridden more positively here - it rarely pays to be too far off the gallop in the early stages.

Always Right was third to Beshabar two years ago and returned to form with a victory at Kelso last time, enough to see him installed as second-favourite here, but he's not one for me with his latest form of dubious worth.

Our Mick also comes here from Cheltenham having chased home Golden Chieftain in the JLT Chase, an interesting performance given that his jockey was hustling and bustling away from an early stage.

If I was going to take one out of that race it would be third-placed White Star Line who has been waiting for some better ground and will get in here off a featherweight. He's a tempting 25/1 with Sky Bet, but his wins-to-runs ratio is just enough to put me off.

Well Refreshed would be of interest at 16/1 if the rains suddenly arrived, but he must have soft ground to show his best and could not be backed until conditions came in his favour.

But in the hope that the going will - as usual - come up good on the day, I'm all over Quentin Collonges, who was well fancied for this 12 months ago but made jumping mistakes and was well beaten when being pulled up.

Breathing problems were blamed for that poor performance and he raced in a first-time tongue tie when winning Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase last time out, trainer Henry Daly also hinting that the horse might have undergone a procedure to help when saying they had "tickled with his breathing".

In the past he has proved too free for his own good going from the front, but this time those tactics worked well for Quentin Collonges, who pulled out more when challenged by Mr Moss in the final strides and it was a performance that was encouraging as to his prospects here.

He prefers a left-handed flat track (having shown a tendency to jump to his left under pressure in the past) and it's no surprise to see Daly target this race again - and in doing so deliberately avoid Cheltenham - despite last year's disappointment.

Put simply, I like his chances a lot and even if the 14/1 at which he is available in a place has gone, 12/1 probably underestimates his chances now that his breathing issues have been ironed out.

[Lester]

Forecast is for lots if rain. Mudlarks needed.

[Lester]

Richard's Update

This Saturday’s Scottish Grand National is the final of the gruelling long distance set of races we have each season, but with last year’s runner-up Auroras Encore going onto land the ‘big one’ at Aintree earlier this month then this weekend’s race will surely have some added attention.

At the time of writing Sue Smith’s Liverpool hero is still in the race – it remains to be seen if he will still be in the field come Saturday as he looks to do what only Red Rum has done and win both races in the same season (1974).

Two of the last three renewals have been won by the Raymond Anderson Green-owned Merigo, and although that horse is not entered this time connections do still have a leading fancy with Rival D’Estruval.

Their 8 year-old was well-fancied last time out when taking a tumble at the second last at Cheltenham in the John Oaksey NH Chase – he looked certain to play a leading role, while many thought he’d have won.

After the race Pauline Robson, trainer of Rival DŽEstruval: "He is fine with just a few nicks on him. He got in too tight and knuckled over on landing. Derek was fairly confident and he had given him a class ride. WeŽre delighted the horse was still there at that point. WeŽll be back, maybe in the Scottish National."

He gets in here off the same mark and being that last race was over 4m then this Saturday’s trip should not be an issue. He’ll love the ground and has run second on the two times he’s raced up at Ayr – barring accidents, and providing that fall has not knocked his confidence, it’s hard not seeing him involved.

Let’s see if he also fits some of the key recent Scottish National Trends:

Age: All of the last 10 winners have been aged 8 or older, so a bit like the Aintree version the race favours the more mature, stronger horses that because they are older would have plenty of experience too. We’ve seen two 11 year-olds win in the last four years, but since 1998 (15 runnings) an 8 year-old has landed the race 7 times. Rival D’Estruval is an 8 year-old.

Recent Form: Another huge stats here as ALL of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 6 last time out. Okay, this actually does knockout Rival D’Estruval, being he fell last time out, but I think we all know he would have been placed at worse had he not taken a tumble. With 4 of the last 10 actually winning their last race then that’s something else to take into account, while if you want to take this trend a bit further than 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top three in their last race.

Days Since Last Run: Coming here fit and well has it’s obvious advantages, and this is further backed up by the fact ALL of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 57 days. To be honest this positive trend will probably apply to almost all the runners, but, again, is something to note, but with 7 of the last 10 winners last racing between 30-57 days ago then this will knock some out.

Weight: Being run over 4m then it goes without saying the weight your fancy is carrying is an important thing to look at. We’ll have to see what the weather is doing later in the week as should the ground dry out then this will help those at the top of the card. However, with 90% of the last 10 winners having just 10-9 or less to carry then the percentage call is to focus on this batch of runners. At this stage Rival D’Estruval is set to carry 11-0, which would be a negative, but, again, many will feel that should he stayed on his feet last time (and maybe won) then he’d have gone up a fair bit for that.

Safe Jumper: Another key trend here as 8 of the last 10 winners were proven chasers with excellent completion records. 8 of the last 10 had actually only fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers. Obviously you can apply this to the final field later in the week, but that recent fall of Rival D’Estruval’s was his first.

Betting: The average winning SP of the last 10 winners is 20/1, so don’t be afraid to look a bit further down the market, while 7 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price in the betting. That said, with 70% of the last 10 hailing form the first 7 in the betting then the safer call is to not delve too far down the market.

Favourite: We’ll have to wait till the day to see which horse will be going off favourite, but those that like their trends will know that we’ve not seen a winning market leader in the last 10 years – at the time of writing Rival D’Estruval is most of the bookie’s fav.

Good Luck!

Scottish Grand National Trends
10/10 – Placed in the top 6 in their last race
10/10 – Ran 57 days or less ago
10/10 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
9/10 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
8/10 – Had fallen or unseated no more than once in their careers
8/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
8/10 – Won by a horse aged between 8-10 years-old
7/10 – Winners from the first 7 in the market
7/10 – Returned at double-figure odds
7/10 – Had raced between 30-57 days ago
6/10 – Won over 3m2f or further
4/10 – Won over 3m7f or further previously
4/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Won by the Ferdy Murphy yard
2/10 – Won by the Andrew Parker yard
2/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
2/10 – Raced in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
0/10 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 20/1

Follow me here:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/DunwoodyRacing
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/DunwoodyRacing

[Lester]

Gary Nutting

GODSMEJUDGE actually appears to go on most types of ground but stamina and jumping technique are his biggest assets, so testing conditions are always likely to bring out the best in Alan King's improving seven-year-old.

I felt he was the 'moral winner' of the Classic Chase at Warwick in January (mugged close home by Rigadin De Beauchene after a protracted duel with third-placed Pate The Feat) and the ground probably wasn't soft enough when he finished third to Back In Focus in the four-miler at Cheltenham last time.

Nonetheless that was still a decent performance at the weights against horses rated 11lb and 10lb his superior and his rating hasn't changed, so he should be favoured by reverting to handicap company.

It's true that Rival D'Estruval would probably have beaten him at Cheltenham but for falling two out. But Pauline Robson's gelding has not been missed by the market (he's 8-1 favourite for this) and on softer ground and getting 4lb, Godsmejudge would appeal value wise at twice the odds.

[Statto]

Some facts and stats about the Coral Scottish Grand National you may not have known.

The Scottish Grand National was first run as the West of Scotland Grand National at a course near Houston, Renfrewshire from 1858 until 1866.
The course in 1858 consisted of 32 jumps, mostly stone walls.
The race moved to Bogside Racecourse in 1867, Irvine approx 10 miles from Ayr.
First winner was The Elk owned by the Duke of Hamilton and ridden by John Page who also rode the winner of the Grand National that year (Cortolvin).
The race was first televised in 1953 and again in 1954 both by the BBC. Then there was no live coverage until ITV took over in 1969 and it remained on that channel until Channel 4 took over in 1986.
The race was last run at Bogside in 1965 and won by Brasher, trained by Tommy Robson and ridden by Jimmy Fitzgerald.
The first running of the Scottish Grand National at Ayr was on April 30, 1966 and it was won by African Patrol, ridden by Johnny Leech and trained by Bobby Fairbairn.
Only one Irish trained horse has won the race - Huntsman in 1869 trained and ridden by Larry Hyland.
Richard Johnson has ridden in the race 15 times which is more than any other jockey. His only success came at the 14th attempt in 2011 on board Beshabar for trainer Tim Vaughan. Richard has finished 3rd on 4 occasions* and 4th twice.
Champion jockey AP McCoy rode Belmont King, trained by Paul Nicholls to win the race in 1997 - his sole success in the race.
The last favourite to win the Scottish National was Paris Pike (5/1) in 2000 trained by Ferdy Murphy and ridden by Adrian Maguire.
Ferdy Murphy (Paris Pike 2000, Joes Edge 2005, Hot Weld 2007) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (Captain Dibble 1992, Earth Summit 1994, Hello Bud 2009) have both trained three Scottish Grand National winners.
Merigo attempts this year to win the race for the third time having previously been successful in 2010 and 2012. The only other horses to have achieved three wins in the race were all at Bogside - Couvrefu II in 1911, 1912 and 1913; Southern Hero 1934, 1936 and 1939 and Queen's Taste 1953,1954 and 1956.

[Hoof]

Alex Hammond

History could be made if Auroras Encore wins the big race as he would become the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to win both Nationals.

Conditions may have gone against him though as trainer Sue Smith said he wouldn't even line up if conditions were testing. At the time of writing it is heavy there with water lying on the track. However, with a windy forecast, that could improve a bit.

He has been raised 11lb by the handicapper for his Aintree triumph, much to Harvey Smith's disgust. His point is that at 11 years old the horse isn't progressing and he pointed out that plenty of National winners never win another race.

So, Auroras Encore carries top weight in this four-mile contest (5lb higher than when second last year) and to be honest he's not for me as much as I would love to see him make history.

His rider Ryan Mania has had a rollercoaster two weeks with the Aintree win and then getting buried 24 hours later at Hexham. He has handled all the media attention with maturity and I hope this win sees his career take off. One thing is for sure, Sue and Harvey don't suffer fools and with their endorsement he should hopefully start being used by more trainers.

So if not Auroras Encore then who?

Twenty-six horses have been declared for the race which is sure to be a real slog. I tipped the Pauline Robson trained Rival D'Estruval to win the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and I'm convinced he would have had he not hit the deck two from home.

He runs off the same mark on Saturday and Timmy Murphy rides for father in law Ray Anderson Green (last year's winning combination with Merigo). Heavy ground holds no fears for him and he has an obvious chance.

Always Right has been a good servant for owner/trainer John Wade and was third in this race a couple of years ago. Although he handles soft ground I'm not sure he wants it this testing.

Alan King's horses are running well and he is represented by Godsmejudge. This horse handles most ground and ran well to be third in the NH Chase at Cheltenham. He's incredibly consistent and there are few negatives, he should run well.

Big Occasion has been well supported in the run up to the race for David Pipe. He has stamina in abundance and won the Midlands National last time out. He has been raised 6lb for that win and can go well again under amateur Mikey Ennis who was in the saddle at Uttoxeter for the biggest win of his career - it would be some result for the rider if he could win this race too as he hails from Scotland. Pipe also saddles Problema Tic, which Tom Scudamore rides.

Our Mick has plenty of weight to carry given conditions (11st 9lb). His jockey Jason Maguire doesn't feel he will have a problem getting the trip and he has run some good races in defeat this term. He looks well capable of winning a big prize, but can make jumping errors.

Neptune Equester has won on heavy but I get the feeling Brian Ellison's horse prefers better ground.

Nuts N Bolts is trained by Lucinda Russell and he loves it round this track. He's a lightly raced horse who has a good strike rate and he ran well enough at Cheltenham but he is unproven at the trip.

I like Rival D'Estruval, Godsmejudge and Big Occasion in a typically open Scottish National. I'm going to stick with the former who crashed out at Cheltenham and hope he can gain compensation here for his enthusiastic connections.