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View Full Version : How do you approach Aintree vs Cheltenham?



robith
03-26-2019, 05:44 PM
Thought I'd raise the question as each year after Cheltenham I always seem to end up down at Aintree, and can't put my finger on it at all. I struggle to get the read on whether running at Cheltenham was good or bad from horse to horse and race to race. There also isn't as much publicly available data on trends etc to support thoughts.

As such over the last couple of years I've tried a few things to help

- No multiples
- Reduce point size by half vs Cheltenham

But this year I kinda fancy taking it on. Just wanted to ask how other people approach Aintree?

Redbridge
03-26-2019, 07:13 PM
robith, see where you are coming from, but after Cheltenham I feel like I was involved in a RSA slog fest.
I had a couple of bets and come the Thursday card nothing gave me the urge to have a dabble, but the day made me hyper witnessing Bryony and Frodon.

Aintree is an anti climax for me, I used to look forward to having a solid bet on the National when it was a National instead of a few brush fences, you could write 95% of the field off even before the tapes went up.

Good luck with your betting and I shall be watching without getting involved unless the Juvenile gets me interested at the last minute which I doubt because I hear Fusil is heading to Punchestown for his next gig.

Kevloaf
03-26-2019, 07:30 PM
Thought I'd raise the question as each year after Cheltenham I always seem to end up down at Aintree, and can't put my finger on it at all. I struggle to get the read on whether running at Cheltenham was good or bad from horse to horse and race to race. There also isn't as much publicly available data on trends etc to support thoughts.

As such over the last couple of years I've tried a few things to help

- No multiples
- Reduce point size by half vs Cheltenham

But this year I kinda fancy taking it on. Just wanted to ask how other people approach Aintree?

I approach Aintree totally different to Cheltenham.

Cheltenham, the ante-post markets are formed and evolving all season. Aintree (bar the Grand National) doesn't allow that approach.

I therefore switch from 'beating the book' to just having one (or two) selections a race - which is how I used to bet on Cheltenham 4+ years ago.

It is riskier, and some years I'll be up, some down (can't be bothered to check specifically how I've done) as I just treat it the same as I treat any 'mini festival' (which for me are ALL bar Cheltenham, with Royal Ascot the only one getting 'close' to being an ante post prospect) - so I treat Aintree the same as Glorious Goodwood, York's Ebor meeting - etc etc.



I do like horses that purposfully missed Cheltenham HOWEVER I don't think the market really misses many of them, so that angle isn't one I'd back blindly.

Eggs
03-26-2019, 07:48 PM
....I tend to look at specific trainers for Aintree. For example, I will back everything (small stakes e/w) that Peter Bowen runs regardless of odds or form. He targets this meeting and the strategy has paid for me in the past.

Irish entries (outside of the National) interest me, given the preference for Punchestown.

TimRiggins
03-26-2019, 08:46 PM
I just chuck a few hundred quid at it, and happy days if I win.


Had a score on Tiger at 50s, so freerolling for a couple years :devilish:


That's what I tell myself, even though I spent it on 10 nights at the Cosmopolitan :highly_amused:

Faugheen_Machine
03-27-2019, 06:23 AM
....I tend to look at specific trainers for Aintree. For example, I will back everything (small stakes e/w) that Peter Bowen runs regardless of odds or form. He targets this meeting and the strategy has paid for me in the past.

Irish entries (outside of the National) interest me, given the preference for Punchestown.

Same here Eggs - I've been doing this with the Bowen horses for 10 years at Aintree, with some brilliant results. Like you say, he certainly targets this meeting.

mayo
03-27-2019, 08:44 AM
I struggle to get the read on whether running at Cheltenham was good or bad from horse to horse and race to race.

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15297-To-back-Cheltenham-Horses-at-Aintree-or-not



There also isn't as much publicly available data on trends etc to support thoughts.

OV get the finger out http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/



But this year I kinda fancy taking it on.

I love the meeting but probably will only bet 20% of my Cheltenham Bank. I like the trainer angle HdB, Bowen, Hendo in G1s (particularly hurdles). Anything Mullins send this year has to be watched after Winter hold ups.

FaugheenTheMachine
03-27-2019, 11:00 AM
Will definitely be pulling my stakes back this. Usually on course either Thursday or Friday (or both) but going to Ayr the weekend after instead this year so won’t be betting as much as always find Aintree tough anyway.
Think the big difference with Cheltenham is the antepost side, the markets have been formed for months and studied hard. There won’t be much difference these days between the markets in the fortnight leading upto Cheltenham and the on day race markets (bar late switcheroos etc) whereas with Aintree we don’t have a clue really what will run until the final decs come through

robith
03-27-2019, 11:45 AM
http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15297-To-back-Cheltenham-Horses-at-Aintree-or-not




OV get the finger out http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/




I love the meeting but probably will only bet 20% of my Cheltenham Bank. I like the trainer angle HdB, Bowen, Hendo in G1s (particularly hurdles). Anything Mullins send this year has to be watched after Winter hold ups.


That's a great thread MAyo, thanks for the work on that

mayo
03-28-2019, 09:19 AM
That's a great thread MAyo, thanks for the work on that

Hope it helps :encouragement:

The King Pimm
03-29-2019, 07:59 AM
The lack of ante post markets is frustrating for Aintree, with less than a week to go B365 still only have 3 Antepost races available so difficult trying to prepare which does drain away at my interest in the meeting.

robith
04-06-2019, 04:35 PM
I actually hate aintree.

My season ends at Cheltenham in future

robith
04-06-2019, 04:45 PM
I actually hate aintree.

My season ends at Cheltenham in future