Lincoln Saturday 23 March 2013

[flatman]

Lets try this

[flatman]

Gary Nutting

THE Flat season is back in its traditional slot straight after Cheltenham and that means it's time to focus on the Lincoln, which is a race I've always had a soft spot for despite its perceived lottery status.

William Haggas is a top man to have on your side in the Doncaster handicap as he's trained three winners of the race, including two in the last six years, so it's no surprise to see him heading the market with potential Group horse Nine Realms.

This colt is bred to be the business as he's a half-brother to the trainer's Prix Du Moulin winner Aqlaam and is obviously highly regarded, having held a St James's Palace entry at the end of last May when landing his maiden after a couple of promising efforts.

Consistently well backed for the Lincoln since the weights were published last month, he could make a mockery of his opening handicap mark of 93 given that the horse he thrashed into second that day has won twice since and is now rated only a pound lower.

At a best-priced 7-1 though, I'm prepared to take him on for two reasons. Firstly, the forecast soft ground may not be ideal.

He's got a bit of a fast-ground pedigree, is unproven on anything slower than good and could it be significant that Aqlaam ran a long way below his best in the soft-ground Lockinge won by mudlark Virtual four years ago?

Secondly, he's short on competitive experience having only run in maidens and is coming back from a 299-day absence - all of which adds up to quite a big ask even if, on pure ability, he's well ahead of the handicapper.

If there is another Pattern-class horse in waiting among the entries, it's surely the John Gosden-trained LAHAAG, who looks to have the more proven credentials for a cut-and-thrust handicap at this stage of his career.

A nephew of the trainer's 1000 Guineas winner Lahan, this big four-year-old has been nursed along in classic Gosden style, confirming debut promise with victory in a Yarmouth maiden and then shrugging off a four-month absence to win a fair 3yo Nottingham handicap last backend.

A market drifter that day, suggesting the run might have been needed, he was backed off the boards for his final start in a Class 2 handicap at York and although the gamble was narrowly foiled, it was still a mighty fine effort in the circumstances.

Chapter Seven, who scored on the nod, was also well supported, back on his favoured soft ground, and his greater experience (he was making his 14th career start and had been competing in good-class handicaps all year) just about won the day.

Lahaag's tail-flashing in the closing stages might set the alarm bells ringing for some punters, but it didn't seem to impair his finishing ability at Nottingham or York, crucially so at the latter venue given that the first two drew clear and were at it hammer and tongs throughout the final furlong.

Put up 5lb for that near-miss, the Marju gelding has the size and scope to be much better than his revised mark of 95 and, with no apparent ground worries, he is fancied to give Gosden a second Lincoln winner following Expresso Star four years ago.

[flatman]

another from ATR David Lawrence

STATS THE WAY TO DO IT
Lincoln Handicap (Doncaster Saturday, 23 March)

Statistics covering the last ten years strongly suggest that Doncaster's Lincoln Handicap - due to be run this Saturday, 23 March - will be won by a contestant carrying 9st 2lb or less.

Eight successful candidates in the past decade - Pablo (8st 11lb in 2003), Stream Of Gold (9st in 2005), Blythe Knight (8st 10lb in 2006), Very Wise (8st 11lb in 2007), Smokey Oakey (8st 9lb in 2008), Expresso Star (8st 12lb in 2009), Penitent (9st 2lb) and Brae Hill (9st 1lb in 2012) - fulfilled this difficult-to-ignore trend.

The two exceptions - Babodana (in 2004) and Sweet Lightning (2011) - carried 9st 10lb and 9st 4lb respectively.

Punters who like to assess races via official ratings might also like to consider the fact that the same eight winners who were saddled with 9st 2lb or less had handicap marks - in chronological order - of 97, 98, 95, 91, 95, 97, 98 and 95, each thereby falling into a range covering just 7lb.

Six winners in the past ten years - Blythe Knight, Expresso Star, Sweet Lightning and Brae Hill were the odd ones out in this category - had already notched a success over the Lincoln trip of one mile.

Earlier course victories at Doncaster are arguable less relevant, as the 2006 and 2007 runnings were staged on other tracks while Town Moor was closed for redevelopment.

Four-year-olds have by far the best strike-rate in the past decade, having collected on six occasions, courtesy of Pablo, Babodana, Stream Of Gold, Smokey Oakey, Expresso Star and Penitent.

Six-year-olds come next in the generational pecking-order, their three victories being achieved within my chosen timeframe by Blythe Knight, Sweet Lightning and Brae Hill.

The five-year-old Very Wise captured the only other edition between 2003 and 2012.

Last-time-out victories seem worth noting, as Pablo, Stream Of Gold, Smokey Oakey and Expresso Star all took this £100,000 contest on the back of a successful latest run elsewhere.

Not surprisingly, though, given the Lincoln's early position in the Flat-racing calendar, eight of the last ten winners were making their seasonal reappearance.

Favourites have a fair record for a big-field handicap, with three outright market-leaders - Stream Of Gold (5-1), Expresso Star (100-30) and Penitent (3-1) - scoring in the last ten years.

Backing second-favourites has proved expensive, however, with only one - Pablo (5-1) - collecting.

Evidence relating to the draw is undoubtedly worth considering, even if not necessarily conclusive.

Three of the last eight winners in Lincolns staged at Doncaster - Pablo (6), Expresso Star (9) and Penitent (1) - raced from a single-figure stall number.

Two - Babodana (23) and Sweet Lightning (16) - was berthed far closer to the stands' side rails.

The three remaining Town Moor Lincoln winners within the period under discussion - Stream Of Gold, Smokey Oakey and Brae Hill - were respectively drawn 13 of 22, 12 of 21 and 12 of 22.

Just two trainers have registered more than one victory within the past decade - Mark Tompkins (courtesy of Babodana and Smokey Oakey) and William Haggas (Very Wise and Penitent) - and it may not be entirely coincidental that both are based in Newmarket.


Weight is strong trend others less so imo...

[Lester]

Snow FFS

[Lester]

Only 50:50 to go ahead...

Draw


Full draw:

1. Monsieur Chevalier

2. Memory Cloth

3. Brae Hill

4. Capaill Liath

5. Majestic Myles

6. Lahaag

7. Global Village

8. Strictly Silver

9. Hit The Jackpot

10. Dance and Dance

11. Gladys' Girl

12. Arsaadi

13. Muffin McLeay

14. Prince Of Johanne

15. Solar Deity

16. Shamaal Nibras

17. Belgian Bill

18. Swiftly Done

19. Chapter Seven

20. Justonefortheroad

21. Captain Bertie

22. Eshtibaak

[Statto]

YEAR HORSE A/G WGT LTO FORM TRAINER JOCKEY RAN OR SP
2012 Brae Hill (Ire) 6g 9-1 210 061000- RA Fahey T Hamilton 22 95 25/1
2011 Sweet Lightning 6g 9-4 23 20-7247 M Dods JP Murtagh 21 104 16/1
2010 Penitent (D) 4g 9-2 160 212- WJ Haggas JP Murtagh 21 98 3/1 (f)
2009 Expresso Star (USA) 4c 8-12 163 111- JHM Gosden J Fortune 20 97 10/3 (f)
2008 Smokey Oakey (Ire) (D) 4c 8-9 139 451 MH Tompkins J Quinn 21 95 10/1
2007 Very Wise (D) 5g 8-11 14 1P2 WJ Haggas J Fanning 20 91 9/1 (jt3f)
2006 Blythe Knight (Ire) 6g 8-10 162 378 JJ Quinn G Gibbons 30 95 22/1
2005 Stream of Gold (Ire) (D) 4c 9-0 169 141 Sir Michael Stoute R Winston 22 98 5/1 (f)
2004 Babodana (D) 4c 9-10 126 219 MH Tompkins P Robinson 24 107 20/1
2003 Pablo (D) 4c 8-11 140 031 BW Hills M Hills 24 97 5/1 (2f)

[Morning Glory]

Next week surely ...

[mayo]

ta for the new avatar vic

Donn

Tricky time of year, this, when you are not sure how fit or forward the flat horses are and when you are not sure how much a long season has taken out of the jumpers or how close to their Cheltenham peak they will be in the after-thought. And that’s without even taking the changing ground into account: heavy since Irish Derby day last year, now talk of watering at Aintree.

That said, you have to have a go at the Lincoln. You can’t really allow the Lincoln pass you by without having a bet in it. We have been looking at it for long enough now as well. Even if you haven’t been thinking about it since last November, you had probably formed an opinion for last week’s race, and if you had, you probably shouldn’t drift too far from it today, one re-schedule and seven days later.

I had. Lahaag, I had said. John Gosden’s horse was nicely progressive last season. He won his maiden on fast ground at Yarmouth in June, then was off the track until October, when he returned to win a soft ground handicap at Nottingham off a mark of 83, and then probably should have won another soft-ground handicap at York off a mark of 90.

There is a lot to like about Lahaag. He obviously had his problems during the summer, but it is significant that Gosden persevered with him and got him back to the track for two runs late in the season. On his penultimate run, the one at Nottingham, he looked beaten as they entered the final two furlongs, but he picked up impressively, appearing to appreciate the soft ground and the premium that it placed on stamina, to get up inside the final 50 yards and beat Border Legend by a tail-swishing three parts of a length.

On his final start of the season at York, he probably should have won, he probably should have beaten Chapter Seven. He and Richard Fahey’s horse moved up on either side of long-time leader Lady Macduff at the two-furlong pole, and the pair of them had a real tussle for the entire of the final furlong.

Chapter Seven always appeared to be a nostril up, but you always felt that Lahaag was going to get there. Until, that is, Chapter Seven appeared to go about a neck up with 25 yards to run, and Paul Hanagan appeared to get really animated on Lahaag. In the end, he was beaten by the bob of a head. The fact that he was a neck up three strides past the line was neither here nor there. (To paraphrase Ruby Walsh, there’s no winning post three strides past the line.)

He is 1lb better off with Chapter Seven (now trained by Stuart Williams) today, but that isn’t why he should turn the tables. Chapter Seven was having his 14th run that day at York, Lahaag was having his fourth. He has much more scope for progression than his contemporary.

Therein lies Lahaag’s chance: in his scope for progression. The handicapper raised him 5lb for his York run, which was fair. He and Chapter Seven came clear of their rivals, and the fifth horse, Swing Alone, came out and won a decent handicap at Lingfield last Sunday. Also, he is trained by John Gosden, who sent out Expresso Star to win the Lincoln in 2009, and he was a similarly unexposed progressive four-year-old who was making his seasonal debut and who – perhaps not completely coincidentally – had also won at Nottingham on soft ground the previous October. Expresso Star was thought good enough to run in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom just two months after his Lincoln win.

The presence of Eshtibaak in the race complicates matters, mind you. Like Lahaag, owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum and trained by Gosden, it appeared that he was the yard’s number one hope for the race last week, it appeared that the owner’s retained rider Paul Hanagan had chosen to ride him, which left Lahaag for the trainer’s rider William Buick. I wasn’t too worried about that last week, I convinced myself that there probably wasn’t much between the two horses, and that Hanagan had been out riding in Dubai and that perhaps the trainer had decided who should ride whom.

A week later, and both Hanagan and Buick are tied up in Dubai World Cup duties, which leaves Dane O’Neill and Robert Havlin to step in for the Lincoln rides. I’m not certain about this, but Dane O’Neill rides a lot for Hamdan Al Maktoum, Havlin rides for Gosden, so it looks like Dane O’Neill has chosen to ride Eshtibaak. That reinforces the view that perhaps Eshtibaak is at least the owner’s number one hope.

Eshtibaak is not dissimilar to Lahaag. He won his maiden as a juvenile, and he won on his three-year-old debut at Lingfield last March. He ran just twice after that last season, first in the Rosebery Handicap on this day last year, and then in a good 10-furlong handicap at Ascot on King George weekend. On both occasions he was impeded in his run, so you can put a line through both. You worry that he might get impeded again today, in a Lincoln, given his running style, but he is progressive and potentially a lot better than his handicap mark.

Also, he is obviously a horse with plenty of ability. At Ascot in particular, in a messy race that was full of hard-luck stories, he looked like a horse who was full of running, but he was just locked away on the inside and couldn’t get out. And he is obviously impressing at home.

I do like these progressive four-year-olds, who have been lightly-raced as three-year-olds, for the Lincoln. Okay, so for the last two years the race has been won by battle-hardened warriors, Brae Hill and last week’s Irish Lincoln winner Sweet Lightning, but the previous three were won by four-year-olds.

More than that, though, it makes sense that the lightly-raced four-year-olds should hold the edge. They are the unexposed horses, the ones who have probably matured and developed over the winter from three to four, but who get to race off handicap marks that reflect only the ability that they were able to show as three-year-olds.

Also, the ground may be a lot better today than we were anticipating in the lead up to last week’s race, and that could help the pacier younger horses. Of course, a member of the older brigade could win the race again, but you could do a lot worse than back the two Gosden horses.

If you do want to get one of the older horses on side, Jack’s Revenge could be the one. He is a little under the radar because he didn’t make the cut for last week’s race, and he may not be to the forefront of people’s minds as a result. But he was highly progressive through last season as a four-year-old, and he rounded off the term by running a cracker to finish second to the useful Tartiflette in a good handicap run over an inadequate seven furlongs at Doncaster.

That is his only run to date at today’s track, so he obviously likes the place. He goes well fresh, he goes well on soft ground, he will appreciate the step back up to a strongly-run mile, he gets into the race on a nice racing weight of 8st 8lb, and he could out-run odds of around 22.

[mayo]

DAQMAN

3.05 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) Who is going to thank Chosen Character for the pace to this race? Coming out of stall 13, he is the only confirmed front-runner I could find.

Though, overall, a low draw has proved best, stalls 12 and 16 have had the winner in four of the last six years.

Since they now surround the likely pace from 13, and have a short-runner among them (Gladys’ Gal in 15), they should tow Brae Hill to history in an arrow formation down the middle of the course.

Richard Fahey’s seven-year-old could well become the first back-to-back winner since Babur (1957-8) for Capt Charles Elsey, who trained in the same part of Yorkshire.

Eshtibaak (stall 20) has won twice when fresh and was Paul Hanagan’s pick of the John Gosden pair before the race clashed with Dubai.

On the low-numbered side, I stand by my ante-post fancy, Captain Bertie, winner of the Newbury Spring Cup last April and runner-up on an even wider, open track at Newmarket, second in the Bunbury Cup.

My reason for making Brae Hill first choice (1 Brae Hill, 2 Captain Bertie, 3 Eshtibaak) is that I don’t think the race is as strong as last year.

The only Group performer, Majestic Myles, has lost his way and is looking to get some help from the handicapper, but last year the second horse home behind Brae Hill won a Group 3, the third won a Listed and also ran in Group 3, the fourth was second in a Group 3, and the fifth won a Listed.

If any with Group pretenders are lurking, they must be aged four or five, where Captain Bertie and Eshtibaak seem to dominate. Sorted!