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2014 Gold Cup

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  • 2014 Gold Cup

    Bobs Worth ...one to beat but not backing at 7/2 with a year to go
    Sirs Des Champs ..will probably drift he he performs as he did early season as last year
    Sprinter Sacre ..Non Runner. very cheeky to quote him.
    Silvi Conti ...wouldnt rule him out
    Long Run. Cant see that he will be getting better now
    Simonsig NR Ryanair or Champion chase
    Boston Bob ...might be an interesting one
    Cue Card...NR back to Ryanair
    Dynaste ...NR imo
    First L ...possible will run here next year imo
    Flemenstar ...champion chase ?
    Harry Topper ...wild card
    Back in Focus ...another one with place possibilities
    Benefficient ...ryanair ?
    Lord Windemere/ Lyreen Legend possibles too.


    Bobs Worth (7/2), Sir Des Champs (8), Sprinter Sacre (8), Silviniaco Conti (10), Long Run (16), Simonsig (20), Boston Bob (25), Cue Card (25), Dynaste (25), First Lieutenant (25), Flemenstar (25), Harry Topper (25), Back In Focus (33), Benefficient (33), Grands Crus (33), Invictus (33), Lord Windermere (33), Lyreen Legend (33), The Giant Bolster (40), Unioniste (40)

    Last edited by Lester; 3 January 2014, 04:08 PM. Reason: Added 2013 Gold Cup Video

  • #2
    Think the Rsa might have been a bit under rated but Bobs will be tough nut to crack. rocky creek another not quoted that might get in mix...

    Last edited by Lester; 3 January 2014, 04:08 PM. Reason: Added 2013 RSA Chase Video

    Comment


    • #3
      Ben Coley: I see absolutely no reason why Bobs Worth won't be back to retain his Gold Cup crown next year. Plenty went wrong for Nicky Henderson's horse last Friday, not least having to skip past the fallen Silviniaco Conti and plough through ground more testing than is ideal, yet he still had seven lengths in hand of a dual-Festival winner, with an outstanding horse well beaten in third. Quite simply, whatever the conditions, should he line-up next March he would look to have the class of 2013 beaten. Do I fear any of the novices? Not really, no. I thought the RSA was a sub-standard renewal, with due respect to those who dominated the finish, while it's hard to see Henderson sending the exceptional Simonsig past three miles particularly in light of his post-Arkle comments. The Jewson winner looks a specialist at two-and-a-half and basically we're getting 3/1 that Henderson can get Bobs Worth back to the Festival at somewhere close to his best. It's a chance worth taking.

      Comment


      • #4
        Handicapper on next years lot ....


        However I have to confess to some head scratching following the running of the RSA. It was a somewhat unsatisfactory race with Boston Bob falling at the last fence.

        Both the winner and second had seemed exposed as being short of top class but in fairness to them they clearly improved for the step up in trip and a truly run race as most of the novice chases in Ireland this winter have been slowly run on desperate ground.

        Eventually after much thought and mind changing I decided to base the race through a combination of Hadrian's Approach and the average winning performance in the race over the last ten years. I had Hadrian's Approach on 147 from both his second in the Feltham to Dynaste and his close run behind Unioniste at Newbury.

        This brought Lyreen Legend to 153 and the winner, Lord Windermere to 155. The average winning end of season rating of the RSA has been 156 over the last ten years so Jim Culloty's charge is rated as marginally below the average RSA winner.

        However what to do with Boston Bob? Opinions will vary as to where he would have finished had he completed and private handicappers could take a view that he might well have won. However as the official Handicapper it is just not possible for me to have a faller higher than the first two finishers when the result was still in doubt so I have assessed him on 152. Remember it is an awfully long way home from that last fence as Bobs Worth showed in the Gold Cup. It is not often that a horse finishing sixth in a top race catches one's eye but I was very much taken with the run of Goulanes (145 in only his second chase having been slightly hampered). I am sure he is a horse with a future.

        The John Oaksey National Hunt Chase was much easier to assess as our top rated Back In Focus (150 going into the race) defeated Tofino Bay our second top rated on 149 by half a length with the rest of the field well beaten off. Tofino Bay has solid handicap form his Troytown win at Navan to give him his 149 so it made sense to accept the result at face value and leave them on 150 and 149. It makes Back In Focus the second highest winner of the race in the last ten years.

        Comment


        • #5
          Dunwoody

          It's always great to see a horse stick his neck out and battle up the Cheltenham hill, but when it's in the Gold Cup it makes it an even more special sight. Bobs Worth is now unbeaten from five runs at Prestbury Park and on that evidence there is nothing to suggest he'll lose his unbeaten track record next season either. Okay, so he's another that can get a bit outpaced during his races, but Barry rides this horse superbly and knows him inside out now -he's has ridden him in all his 12 career starts!

          He also came here without a recent run and with another probable light campaign next term then at 8 years-old he could actually have more improvement in him. Some will say that if the ground is a bit quicker next year then this will help bring the likes of Sir Des Champs and Long Run, who were second and third, a lot closer, and I agree - but I'd still have Bobs Worth winning. Silviniaco Conti fans will also fight his corner as he was still going okay when coming to grief at the third-last - he's still only 7 years-old and was the highest-rated in the race, but the way Bobs Worth relishes that hill if anything gets into a battle with him you can only see one winner.

          The betting at present sees Bobs Worth at 7/2 to retain his title - a fair price - while Conti and Sir Des are at 8/1, but if I were having a small play now then at 16/1 Long Run looks the value. Okay, probably not to win the race, but he's yet to finish out of the first three in all his 25 career runs and this is sure to be this 8 year-olds target once again in 2014 and won't be that price on the day.

          Comment


          • #6
            Sir Des Champs at 8s would be only bet I'd consider at the minute.

            Last edited by Lester; 3 January 2014, 04:10 PM. Reason: Added 2013 Punchestown Gold Cup

            Comment


            • #7
              Latest odds

              Bobs Worth (3), Sir Des Champs (8), Silviniaco Conti (10), Sprinter Sacre (10), First Lieutenant (16), Long Run (16), Al Ferof (20), Dynaste (20), Lord Windermere (22), Boston Bob (25), Cue Card (25), Flemenstar (33), Harry Topper (33), The Giant Bolster (33), Grands Crus (40), Invictus (40), Mount Benbulben (40), Back In Focus (50), Benefficient (50), Cape Tribulation (50)

              Harry Topper anyone ?

              Invictus might be interesting but like to see him run first. Beat Bobs Worth at Ascot a few years ago.

              Comment


              • #8
                Nicky Henderon will do with Bobsworth exactly the same as he did with See You Then. Wrap him up in cotton wool and make sure he's spot on on the big day.

                He has good reason to do so as the King George is totally out of the question as he'd end up so far behind at one stage he'd never get back on terms with the others.

                No doubt he'll have a couple of runs somewhere but the Gold Cup is where he will shine.

                The only horse I can see beating him is last Installment but he's sidelined and probably won't make it there.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Haven't heard anything about Last Installment either.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Bookies taking no chances. Sir des still my one. Might get beat in John Durkan or Lexus so holding fire for now.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Thinks 6s about Bobs a bit on an over reaction. If Cue Card goes to Gold Cup now he will probably set off at his usual clip with a few (Dynaste anyway) in tow. Doubt if we will see Sir des champs commit as early this time but can still see it turning into a bit of a slog with something outstaying Cue Card and Dynaste after the last. Bobs still the most likely candidate to do that.

                      Last edited by Lester; 3 January 2014, 04:11 PM. Reason: 2013 Betfair Chase Added

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Evening Mayo

                        Nice to see books taking a view on the race for once. BW 7/2 with Paddys and 6s with Ladbrokes.


                        Looking at last years field ony Sir Des has won a race since - might have left its mark.

                        1st 1 Bobs Worth (IRE) N J Henderson 8 11-10 B J Geraghty 11/4f
                        Tracked leaders, pushed along and outpaced after 4 out, switched outside and headway when left 4th and hampered next, challenged after 2 out, ridden to lead before last, stayed on under pressure flat £6000-£2000 £22000-£8000(x2) £11000-£4000(x2) £2750-£1000(x3)
                        2nd 7 8 Sir Des Champs (FR) W P Mullins 7 11-10 A P McCoy 4/1
                        Tracked leaders, went 2nd at 11th, joined leader 17th, every chance 2 out, outpaced in 3rd when switched right between last 2, soon ridden, rallied to regain 2nd flat, kept on, well held final 75 yards £18000-£4000 £8000-£2000 £4000-£1000(x4)
                        3rd 2¾ 5 Long Run (FR) N J Henderson 8 11-10 p1 Mr S Waley-Cohen 7/2
                        Hit 1st, led, joined 17th, driven after 3 out, ridden and headed before last, no extra in 3rd flat opened 9/2 £36000-£8000 £4500-£1000(x2) £40000-£10000 £20000-£5000
                        4th 6 10 The Giant Bolster D G Bridgwater 8 11-10 T Scudamore 16/1
                        Tracked leader to 11th, remained prominent, pushed along in 4th when left 3rd 3 out, rallied and effort on inside next, soon ridden, no extra approaching last opened 14/1
                        5th 6 3 Cape Tribulation J M Jefferson 9 11-10 D F O'Regan 12/1
                        Held up behind in touch, struggling 16th, no impression when left 5th 3 out, plugged on from next, never troubled leaders £60000-£5000
                        6th 13 4 Captain Chris (IRE) P J Hobbs 9 11-10 t R Johnson 14/1
                        Jumped right throughout, held up in touch, chased leaders 5 out, outpaced 3 out, soon weakened
                        7th 37 11 Wayward Prince Mrs H Parrott 9 11-10 t1 Jack Doyle 100/1
                        Held up in touch, dropped towards rear 6th, struggling halfway, tailed off from 4 out
                        PU 6 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 8 11-10 S Twiston-Davies 40/1
                        Held up in last pair, not fluent 13th, struggling 15th, weakened 4 out, tailed off when pulled up before 2 out
                        F 7 Silviniaco Conti (FR) P F Nicholls 7 11-10 R Walsh 4/1
                        Tracked leaders, hit 9th, 2 lengths down in 3rd and every chance when fell 3 out opened 9/2 £9000-£2000 £2700-£600

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Lydia after Hennessy

                          As things stand, the Hennessy is unlikely to impact as much as last year's renewal on the premier staying chases - although matching the 2012 renewal was a tough ask. Nationals of one sort or another were mentioned for the first and second, Triolo D'Alene and Rocky Creek, although Paul Nicholls is now talking Lexus for the latter. Both would need to improve greatly for more ambitious targets; the less exposed Rocky Creek might be the more likely to do so. Neither has run well at Cheltenham, albeit Rocky Creek has only tried it once. Katenko, an intended runner in the Gold Cup last season before being struck by a severe bout of colic, still had every chance when falling. We still don't know whether he is good enough, or even as good as he was prior to his unfortunate illness. Lord Windermere was taken out of his rhythm and hampered in avoiding that prone rival - an inhibiting factor that should not be underestimated in chases. He got back into the race afterwards, but that effort might have taken its toll in his tame finishing effort. However, it might just have been a bit lacklustre full stop. Whatever, he has not yet enhanced his fringe Gold Cup claims.

                          Comment


                          • #14



                            Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
                            Bobs Worth ...one to beat but not backing at 7/2 with a year to go
                            Sirs Des Champs ..will probably drift he he performs as he did early season as last year
                            Sprinter Sacre ..Non Runner. very cheeky to quote him.
                            Silvi Conti ...wouldnt rule him out
                            Long Run. Cant see that he will be getting better now
                            Simonsig NR Ryanair or Champion chase
                            Boston Bob ...might be an interesting one
                            Cue Card...NR back to Ryanair
                            Dynaste ...NR imo
                            First L ...possible will run here next year imo
                            Flemenstar ...champion chase ?
                            Harry Topper ...wild card
                            Back in Focus ...another one with place possibilities
                            Benefficient ...ryanair ?
                            Lord Windemere/ Lyreen Legend possibles too.


                            Bobs Worth (7/2), Sir Des Champs (8), Sprinter Sacre (8), Silviniaco Conti (10), Long Run (16), Simonsig (20), Boston Bob (25), Cue Card (25), Dynaste (25), First Lieutenant (25), Flemenstar (25), Harry Topper (25), Back In Focus (33), Benefficient (33), Grands Crus (33), Invictus (33), Lord Windermere (33), Lyreen Legend (33), The Giant Bolster (40), Unioniste (40)
                            Not bad call Vic ...Id say you called the season so far about right. Will add a bit of Video to this thread
                            Last edited by Lester; 3 January 2014, 04:14 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              2013 Lexus

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