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Ascot Chase Feb 16 2013

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  • Ascot Chase Feb 16 2013

    No entry for Riverside Theatre ? Might have been the plan to go to Cheltenham fresh and keep him going for Aintree this year ..he was over the top after two races in 2012. He would be hard to back now anyway on the back of the King George run.

    Looks like a very decent race though. Not sure Finians likes Ascot or will show his best on the ground. Somersby might be the one...course specialist etc etc .

  • #2
    Timeform


    Of the quartet that remains the one that makes least appeal at the prices is the current market leader, namely Captain Chris. The nine-year-old has arguably yet to achieve over fences what both his physique and his hurdling career suggested he may, for all that he has won an Arkle and twice finished placed in a King George. He looked to have this season's renewal of the latter-mentioned event sewn up but for Long Run to rally and beat him by a neck and many will point to that being just about the best piece of recent form on offer, however I urge you to watch a replay of that race as Captain Chris was under pressure from a fair way out and it was only really as Cue Card and Grands Crus capitulated, and Long Run idled, that he got himself involved. The drop in trip isn't certain to be in his favour and he has long been prone to errors over fences, factors which all contribute to the 3.5 presently available looking rather on the short side.*

    Prior to his seasonal reappearance in the Amlin Chase, Finian's Rainbow would have been a "no-brainer" at 4.5, with the 10-year-old boasting the best form on offer and a consistent profile. However that outing, on ground softer than he had previously faced, was a poor one, the testing conditions fully taxing his fitness and eventually seeing him being beaten in the region of 24 lengths. He has reportedly undergone a breathing operation since, which could suggest that all may not have been well regardless of the ground, but the suspicion is that he may prove an entirely different proposition come the Spring Festivals.

    Cue Card and Somersby, what to do with you two? I'm tempted to say that Cue Card wins, with his victory in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter still fresh in the mind. He looked even better than he had done as a novice that day, which is high praise considering he briefly, and I mean briefly, looked a threat to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, and his effort in the King George, where he patently failed to stay three miles, can be readily forgiven. I've managed to convince myself that I'm round about 75% convinced that Cue Card will win this race (which I know doesn't sound very convincing at all) *but, as things stand, there are three places on offer which means that we don't have to select the winner at all.*

    Clearly were Somersby to emerge triumphant it would greatly expand our financial gains, but he looks a cracking each-way bet at 7.0. The nine-year-old defeated Finian's Rainbow in the Victor Chandler Chase last season and made his seasonal reappearance this term in the same event, shaping well after nine months off but eventually striking as being in need of the run. He did look to retain all of his ability however and he has long since suggested that this sort of trip would bring out the best in him, and he would need only one if his main rivals to perform below-par in order to secure us a return. His Ascot record only further enhances his appeal, yet to finish out of the first three in four attempts, and it is far from out of the question that, were he to turn up at the peak of his powers, he could well trump the entire field and emerge triumphant.*

    If you steadfastly back on the nose then Cue Card is the one for you but the sensible money could well be on Somersby to hit the places. OK he hasn't always convinced with his attitude but on his day he is a top-class chaser and could well take advantage of any chinks in his rivals' armour, and it is certainly possible to find weaknesses with regards to both Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. I can't see myself gracing the courts of Wimbledon any time soon, as much as I'd fancy myself to blow Federer away in three, so Somersby for the Betfair Ascot Chase will have to do.

    Comment


    • #3
      Captain Chris (11/4), Cue Card (10/3), Finians Rainbow (4), Somersby (6), Ghizao (10), Albertas Run (12), Big Fella Thanks (20), Astracad (33), Teaforthree (33), Vino Griego (33), Pigeon Island (66)

      Finians at 4s has to be backed imo. Buckley was hopeful he would have a better horse after the wind op.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Morning Glory View Post
        Captain Chris (11/4), Cue Card (10/3), Finians Rainbow (4), Somersby (6), Ghizao (10), Albertas Run (12), Big Fella Thanks (20), Astracad (33), Teaforthree (33), Vino Griego (33), Pigeon Island (66)

        Finians at 4s has to be backed imo. Buckley was hopeful he would have a better horse after the wind op.
        If you did Finians each way looks like a good bet only 2 places now...

        Captain Chris (11/4), Cue Card (steamer11/4), Finians Rainbow (steamer7/2), Somersby (steamer5), Ghizao (steamer9), Pigeon Island (steamer50)

        Comment


        • #5
          The Betfair Ascot Chase should theoretically be the best guide to the Ryanair Chase being another Grade 1 chase taking place over an intermediate trip three and a half weeks weeks before the Festival. That was certainly the case last year as Riverside Theatre took this race on his seasonal debut and then justified 7/2 favouritism in the Ryanair. Albertas Run also finished second here before going one place better in the Ryanair three years ago and Fondmort also placed here before winning the Ryanair in 2006 so three of the eight winners of the Cheltenham Festival’s 2m5f Grade 1 race have finished in the first three in the Ascot Chase.

          Comment


          • #6
            This afternoon’s Ascot Chase is just one of those races that you simply savour. One of those races that forms the very fabric of the National Hunt season. You know all the protagonists inside out, you know their traits, their strengths and weaknesses, you can visualise every one of their last five runs at least without the need to resort to Sky Plus or racingpost.com – yet you still don’t know what’s going to win it.

            Six runners, four with real chances, possibly five. You can understand why Somersby is only fourth favourite though. On official ratings, he is just the joint-third best horse in the race. He has 8lb to find on Finian’s Rainbow and 4lb to find with Captain Chris. Even with Cue Card, he is rated Cue Card’s equal, but Cue Card is only seven, Somersby is nine. Cue Card has raced just seven times over fences, Somersby has raced 17 times. In theory, therefore, Colin Tizzard’s horse has way more scope for progression.

            On Racing Post Ratings, Somersby is fourth best, 176, compared with Finian’s Rainbow’s 182, Captain Chris’ 177 and Cue Card’s 177. He is also only fourth best on Timeform ratings, 179, 9lb inferior to Finian’s Rainbow, 4lb inferior to Cue Card, 3lb inferior to Captain Chris.

            So how is he going to win?

            Maybe he isn’t going to win, but maybe his chance is better than that suggested by odds of 6.2.

            Take them one by one. Finian’s Rainbow is top-rated, deservedly so given that he is the reigning Champion Chaser, but he was desperately disappointing on his only run this term to date, over two miles and three furlongs at today’s track. It was the second time he had been beaten in as many runs over fences at Ascot.

            Maybe it was the really soft ground that was his undoing that day, but it is not going to be a whole lot better today. Maybe it was something else, maybe he just wasn’t right, maybe he was having trouble with his breathing, and he has reportedly had a small wind operation since. Even if it was, he still has to bounce back. There are lots of imponderables there, lots that you have to take on trust, and he is short at 4.5.

            Cue Card is obviously high-class, he was second behind Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle last year and he was really impressive in winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his debut this term. However, he is another who has disappointed on his most recent run. That was in the King George at Kempton, when he didn’t jump well and when he was struggling before the three-mile trip should really have become an issue. The drop down to two miles and five and a half furlongs should be in his favour, but, as with Finian’s Rainbow, he has to bounce back, and 3.75 is short.

            It is more difficult to pick holes in Captain Chris. He won the race in which Finian’s Rainbow disappointed on his debut this term, the Amlin Chase over two miles and three furlongs of today’s track, and he ran out of his skin to finish second in the King George, beaten just a neck. He is one for one at Ascot, he has to go right-handed, he is proven on soft ground now and this is probably his ideal trip. He has a lot in his favour.

            The one weakness in the case for Captain Chris is that he had a desperately hard race in the King George and that he is on track for Cheltenham. Philip Hobbs surely would have given him a fair bit of time off after Christmas, and he is probably being trained to peak at Cheltenham, so there is a chance that today’s race is just a stepping stone in that regard. There is a chance that he will just not be at his peak today.

            Indeed, that goes for Finian’s Rainbow and Cue Card as well. Finian’s is on a recovery mission, a positive run is surely the objective and then go to Cheltenham, while Cue Card has the Ryanair Chase on his radar, and this is the ideal stepping stone to that end.

            Somersby is different, this race has probably been his target. He ran well on his seasonal debut in the Victor Chandler Chase – re-routed from Ascot to Cheltenham a week later – when he probably would have finished second had he not chased Sprinter Sacre and/or had the ultimate runner-up not stolen about 20 lengths out of the gate.

            It makes sense that this race has been Somersby’s target, simply because it is a Grade 1 race run at Ascot. Somersby loves Ascot. In three runs over fences there, he has finished second to Master Minded in an Amlin Chase and a Victor Chandler Chase, and he has won a Victor Chandler Chase, beating Finian’s Rainbow into second place.

            Remarkably, the three highest ratings of his chasing career have been achieved in his three runs over fences at Ascot. In all three he achieved a higher rating than he achieved in any of his 14 runs over fences away from Ascot. Whatever it is about the Berkshire track, it seems to suit him. Perhaps it is the long, gradual pull up from the sixth last fence to the winning line. Different to Cheltenham’s peaks and dales.

            His run in the Victor Chandler Chase should have brought him forward. Mick Channon’s horse is invariably better on his second run of the season than he is on his first. He has achieved a higher rating on his second run of the season than on his seasonal debut every season since he started racing.

            The distance is a little bit of a worry for the former Henrietta Knight-trained gelding, but he gets two miles and three furlongs well, he has won over two miles and four and a half furlongs, and he should get the trip. Fourth in the 2011 King George, he could even improve for the step up by a couple of furlongs in trip and, at 6.2, back at Ascot, Somersby could be the value of the race.

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