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Newbury Betfair Hurdle

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  • Newbury Betfair Hurdle

    Donn picks one



    Il Fenomeno did really well to finish fifth in the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday, given how the race panned out. Noel Meade’s horse raced six or seven wide throughout, made steady headway widest of all down the back straight and, having joined the leader at the end of the back straight, pressed on across the top of the course, taking up the running and stretching his field out over the second last flight. He was headed on the run to the final flight, but he actually stuck on well up the run-in to get back into fifth. It was a gutsy performance in his first-time blinkers.

    Il Fenomeno can do better now if he is held up for longer, and he could be a well-handicapped horse on a mark of 133. He was just below top class last season as a novice, he won the Grade 3 For Auction Novice Hurdle at Navan and he was third to Benefficient in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle. He handles this soft ground well, and there could be a big handicap in him now, perhaps if he is held up for a little longer, and as long as the blinkers work as well next time as they did here. He is entered in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on 9th February, and he would be of interest at a big price if he took his chance in that.

  • #2
    Evan Williams has warned leading contender Court Minstrel is far from certain to take his chance in the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.

    The six-year-old ran out an impressive winner on his debut over obstacles at Cheltenham in October and emerged with huge credit when third behind top novice Dodging Bullets at the same track a month later, having suffered trouble in running.

    He was slightly disappointing when only fourth in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time and having struggled to cope in the mud on that occasion, Williams insists his charge will only line up this weekend if conditions are right.

    Williams said: "We are keeping an eye on it but he definitely won't run if the ground is very soft. It will have to dry out considerably for him to run.

    "He's in grand form at home and I would obviously prefer to run him if I can because the prize-money is so good, but the one thing we learnt at Sandown is that he can't handle very soft ground, so there is no point running him on it again this weekend.

    "There is a bit of drying weather around at the moment, so we might be all right, but conditions will have to be suitable for him."

    Court Minstrel holds an entry in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at next month's Cheltenham Festival but at this stage, Williams is keen to go down the handicap route with a horse he believes is well treated off a mark of 131.

    "He won't run in top novice company as, in my opinion, he is not a Grade One novice," said the trainer.

    "My feeling is that on good ground he is a well-handicapped horse, so we might as well look at the handicaps at those better meetings for the time being.

    "Whether he runs on Saturday or not, spring will arrive at some stage and I am sure there is a good prize in him when he gets on some good ground."

    Comment


    • #3
      ALAN KING has all but ruled out Saturday's Betfair Hurdle for Grumeti with the trainer prepared to wait a week longer and bring back his Stan James Champion Hurdle contender in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton instead. Owned by Max McNeill, Grumeti has been sidelined by injury since finishing second on the Flat at Goodwood in May and is a general 14-1 shot for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and 20-1 for the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
      The five-year-old had ended the 2011/12 jumps season by finishing third in the JCB Triumph Hurdle and first in the Grade 1 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle at the Grand National festival before a win and a second in two starts on the Flat. However, King is reluctant to run Grumeti in the fiercely competitive handicap on his first outing of the season and is looking towards the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle, a race the trainer sent Katchit out to win before his Champion Hurdle triumph in 2008. King is likely to rely on another long-term absentee in the Betfair Hurdle with Manyriverstocross, a Grade 2-winning hurdler, set to line up.Writing in his column in the Weekender, King said: "I have two entries in the Betfair Hurdle in Grumeti and Manyriverstocross. Although I am not certain, it is more likely that Grumeti will wait and head for the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton the following week.

      "Manyriverstocross has been off the course for 818 days and is ready to make a start. It is an extremely difficult race to make a comeback in but I have very few opportunities in which to start."

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm keen on cause of causes for this going back to the greatwood form. MTOY needs to show he can handle the big field.

        Comment


        • #5
          Swing bowler and claret cloak backed today ...

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Morning Glory View Post
            I'm keen on cause of causes for this going back to the greatwood form. MTOY needs to show he can handle the big field.
            Cash and Go has a pull at the weights MG ?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Cooper View Post
              Cash and Go has a pull at the weights MG ?
              I actually meant to say Cash and Go ! If cause of causes wins must be the supreme winners.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by cheltenham View Post
                Swing bowler and claret cloak backed today ...
                David Johnson must have missed the price on swing bowler

                “She has done nothing but surprise us,” said Johnson. “You can also argue David has placed her very well but even allowing for that she has done well to win five races from just five runs and she was quite impressive on her last run in Scotland.

                “She has a nice racing weight on Saturday and Timmy is dieting this week to make the weight. She is also working well but I’m still not overly excited about her chance. This is a very big step up in an open handicap and I personally think David’s other runner, Ronaldo Des Mottes, has the more obvious chance when it comes to the Pipe horses.”

                Comment


                • #9
                  "He's very well and he's been in great form for a while, but we didn't want to run him on heavy ground," said the Newmarket handler.

                  "We're looking forward to a good run, but wouldn't be surprised if he improves for the run.

                  "He won over a mile and a quarter on the Flat at Newmarket, so two miles over hurdles shouldn't be a problem.

                  "It's as much a fact-finding mission in that hopefully after Saturday, if all goes well, we are going to know what his optimum trip is.

                  "I think we found out at Liverpool that three miles is beyond him. He was going very well in the Neptune but we don't know how that would have ended up. What we are on is a fact-finding mission to establish if this is his trip.

                  "He won a Grade Two over two miles, five furlongs at Warwick. We know he's a nice horse over two and a half.

                  "It will just give us an indication as to how effective he is over the minimum trip and then we can choose what race we want at Cheltenham once we've seen how he goes on Saturday."

                  Ante-post favourite My Tent Or Yours will try to turn around what has been a dreadful week for JP McManus.

                  The Irish owner has been hit with the death on the track of Darlan, a season-ending injury to the promising Ned Buntline, and the loss of the broodmare Like-A-Butterfly.

                  He is represented in the Betfair Hurdle by ante-post favourite My Tent Or Yours, who, although still in his novice season, has shaped like an ideal type for this race.

                  The five-year-old heads a team of six from the Nicky Henderson stable.

                  "He has plenty of weight for a novice," said McManus' racing manager Frank Berry.

                  "Nicky is very happy with him and he goes there in good form.

                  "We are hoping for a good run."

                  McManus is also represented by the Eddie Harty-trained Princeton Plains, who ran a good race when sixth to fellow Betfair rival Cause Of Causes in The Ladbroke at Ascot in December.

                  "He ran a good race at Ascot the last day. He stayed on after being outpaced at halfway," said Berry.

                  "Eddie is very happy with him and it's a great race to have a runner for him.

                  "We are hoping for the best."

                  Cash And Go is another of Henderson's strong party and the mount of stable jockey Barry Geraghty.

                  "I got unseated off him in The Ladbroke at Ascot. He had a good run in Cheltenham before that where he finished in front of Cause Of Causes, so the form looks good there," said the Irish rider.

                  "My Tent Or Yours has the right sort of profile, but he is a short price in a very competitive field.

                  "He is a worthy favourite, but it is a competitive race."

                  Emma Lavelle is hoping conditions will be decent enough to help Claret Cloak.

                  "I'm delighted to see ground conditions are improving and the horse is in really great nick," said the Andover trainer.

                  "We know he's a good-ground horse and he ran really well at Ascot on his comeback run.

                  "After that we moved the bar to say we would run if it was soft, but we haven't even been able to get that - it's been heavy everywhere.

                  "Once it became obvious he wasn't going to be able to go anywhere we gave him a couple of weeks off and then brought him back with this race in mind.

                  "He gets into the race on 10st 3lb, which is very nice indeed.

                  "It's down to him now."

                  Manyriverstocross returns to the track after 818 days on the sidelines.

                  The Alan King-trained eight-year-old was last seen finishing third to Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2010 and was third to Get Me Out Of Here in this race that February.

                  "There are not that many opportunities where I can start Manyriverstocross back and I realise this is a big ask after 27 months off, but we are just glad to get him rolling again," the Barbury Castle handler told www.alankingracing.co.uk.

                  Tom George believes Baby Mix is now back to his best after a three-month break following two disappointing runs earlier in the season.

                  "When he came back in, we found he had grown a lot over the summer and he was more relaxed," the Slad handler told At The Races.

                  "But as it transpired he wasn't at the top of his game.

                  "He's now back bucking and kicking and is quite boisterous about everything.

                  "He's showing all the right signs which he did last season when he was on top form.

                  "He's looking good and we couldn't be happier with his work."

                  Irish raider Cause Of Causes bids to land his second big handicap on these shores after taking The Ladbroke at Ascot in January.

                  The five-year-old has been put up 10lb for that success over Petit Robin, but his trainer Gordon Elliott is still expecting a decent display - especially after he went on to score at Navan last month.

                  "He's run great all year. He's travelled over well and we're hoping for another good run," said the County Meath handler.

                  "He's 10lb higher than he was at Ascot but we're hoping he can still run a decent race."

                  The unbeaten Swing Bowler heads a team of three from the David Pipe yard. The daughter of the classy mare Lady Cricket has yet to taste defeat in three hurdle races and two bumpers.

                  "She's done nothing wrong - five out of five - and she's at the right end of the weights," said the Nicholashayne handler.

                  "She'll enjoy a fast-run two-mile race.

                  "She lacks a bit of experience, but she has to have a squeak."

                  Ronaldo Des Mottes was second to Get Me Out Of Here in this race in 2010 but only returned from a lengthy absence at Sandown five weeks ago, when fourth to Lord Of House at Sandown.

                  "He's got the experience and he'll enjoy the race as well," said Pipe.

                  "Tom Bellamy claims 7lb off him, which will help, and he could run a big race."

                  Pipe's third runner, Home Run, had won five on the bounce until Mr Mole got the better of him at Taunton on Thursday.

                  "He seems OK," said Pipe.

                  "He ran well against a very well-handicapped horse.

                  "He's out of the weights but we will be claiming off him so he'll take his chance, all being well."

                  Evan Williams has warned he may withdraw Court Minstrel if he considers the ground too soft for his promising novice.

                  "I'm very keen to run him in this sort of race but we know from the Tolworth he doesn't like soft ground, so if the ground is predominately soft, I won't run him," said the Llancarfan trainer.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Steve Hughes has gone for

                    Newbury 3.35: COURT MINSTREL (EW 14-1, general)
                    A horse who I have nominated as a possible Cheltenham Festival ante-post bet, Court Minstrel looks a class act even as a novice, and with the minimum weight to carry looks each-way value in what is going to be the normal cavalry charge for arguably Britain’s foremost handicap hurdle.

                    The striking characteristic about this horse is his high cruising speed and so he has done well to achieve what he has already managed in generally slowly run novice contests to date. An impressive last to first winner at Cheltenham on debut, he was given too much to do in a race run at a crawl at the same track in November.

                    Nothing was going as well as he was two out in a Grade 1 at Sandown last time, but the heavy ground took its toll and a mistake at the last meant he could only manage fourth. Whilst ideally he would like quicker going, conditions certainly won’t be as bad here and he will surely get the end-to-end gallop that will bring his real speed to the fore.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Cash and go for me ...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Pricewise

                        Claret cloak
                        Punjabi
                        Cotton mill

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Swing Bowler for Jim McGrath
                          I think Cash & Go for Mick Fitz

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Beat Mayo to it ...The DONN

                            Your starting hypothesis in all of these big races should be that the favourite is too short. Start your analysis with the objective of proving that hypothesis, and you are probably starting down the right track.

                            You may not be able to prove the hypothesis, your conclusion may be that the favourite is actually over-priced, in which case the favourite is the bet. But you really should start out with the intention to take him on.

                            Take My Tent Or Yours in the big handicap hurdle at Newbury today. Can he win the race? Of course he can win the race, but he is a 5.6 shot and the next best of his 21 rivals is a 9.8 shot. So the market is saying that JP McManus’ horse has almost twice as good a chance of winning the race as his best rival has, and that may not be true.

                            My Tent Or Yours is a lovely horse. Only just beaten by The New One in the Aintree Bumper last April, he was impressive in beating the highly-talented Taquin Du Seuil at Ascot on his first run over hurdles in November, and he cruised to victory at Huntingdon last time. He is exciting, and he could be very good indeed.

                            That said, a rating of 149 for his handicap debut is not lenient. Taquin Du Seuil was given a rating of just 134 after the Ascot race, having gone down by just a length and three quarters to My Tent Or Yours, trying to give him 5lb. Jonjo O’Neill’s horse has obviously progressed since then, but he is still only rated 149 after having won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle by nine lengths. My Tent Or Yours has the same rating having won a Class 4 novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon.

                            Also, a rating of 149 puts Nicky Henderson’s horse into the race with 11st 2lb on his back, which is high for this race. Only one horse in the last eight renewals has carried more than 11st 1lb to victory, Essex, who was sent off the 9/1 fourth favourite for the Champion Hurdle on the back of that run. The current fourth favourite for this year’s Champion Hurdle is Rock On Ruby, who is rated 170, 21lb higher than My Tent Or Yours. Okay, so we’re not comparing like with like, we’re not even comparing apples with oranges, we’re into apples with tennis balls territory, but it gives you an idea of the magnitude of the task that My Tent Or Yours faces today. He may well win but, as things stand at present, given the information that we have this morning, 5.6 is no value at all.

                            Nicky Henderson’s horse is a lovely progressive young hurdler who could prove to be very good indeed, but he is just one of several progressive young hurdlers in the line-up.

                            Claret Cloak is another one. Emma Lavelle’s horse is not a novice, but he is only six, he is the same age as My Tent Or Yours, and he has run just four times over hurdles, just one more time than the favourite. He has at least as much potential for progression.

                            The son of Vinnie Roe was a really exciting novice last term, getting off the mark at Sandown in February, coming home 12 lengths clear of his rivals, and then staying on bravely to catch breakaway leaders North Cape and Bold Henry on the run-in and land a decent novice hurdle over today’s course and distance. So we know that he likes the track.

                            He has run just once this season, in a listed handicap hurdle at Ascot in November, when he put up a really encouraging performance. Weak enough in the market beforehand, he was ridden much more prominently than had been the case last season. Taking it up over the fourth last flight, he was there to be shot at as they rounded the home turn, but there was a lot to like about the manner in which he stuck to his task even after he was passed to retain third place.

                            The winner of that race, the highly-talented Raya Star, ran second to Oscar Whisky and Darlan in his two runs since, and is now rated 10lb higher than he was then, despite the fact that he didn’t have as much obvious scope for progression as the year-younger and much more lightly-raced Claret Cloak. Emma Lavelle’s horse was rewarded with just a 3lb hike from the handicapper, and that looks lenient.

                            He should come on for that run, the good to softish ground today should be ideal, and his mark of 136 – 13lb lower than My Tent Or Yours’ mark – allows him into the race with a lovely racing weight of 10st 3lb. He is a major player, and he looks the most over-priced horse in the race at around 14.

                            Mind you, because of My Tent Or Yours’ relatively short price, there are a couple of others who look over-priced. Swing Bowler is one, she is another lightly-raced young hurdler who won nicely at Musselburgh last time and has huge scope for progression. She is potentially progressive enough to withstand an 11lb hike, which she really needed in order to get into the race.

                            The other David Pipe horse, Ronaldo Des Mottes, caught the eye in running a lovely race at Sandown last time behind Lord Of House on his first run for almost two years. His mark of 144 is 7lb lower than his peak and, as long as he doesn’t bounce, he has a chance.

                            Cash And Go, Pearl Swan and Cotton Mill are all interesting, but all three are probably priced up just about right now at around 11 or less. By contrast, Court Minstrel would be interesting at around 16 if Evan Williams determined that the ground was good enough to allow him take his chance. He is 2lb out of the handicap, but it would be surprising if he didn’t prove to be significantly better than his effective mark of 133. Also, the evergreen Cause Of Causes could easily step forward again on better ground. He is often under-rated, and Gordon Elliott always said that he wanted better ground.

                            All that into the mix, Claret Cloak is the main bet, with Swing Bowler and Court Minstrel on side, and possibly Ronaldo Des Mottes and Cause Of Causes saving stakes.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The stats pick is Swing Bowler. Claret cloak next best fit

                              Comment

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