Irish Hennessy 2013: The rematch

[mayo]

Tidal Bay, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are all in Hennessy contention
Paul Nicholls' Lexus hero Tidal Bay is one of the 16 entries in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 9.

Galvanised by Ruby Walsh to come home first in a dramatic finish to the Christmas highlight over course and distance, Tidal Bay could face a rematch with two of the other three horses involved in the conclusion.

Peter Casey's popular Flemenstar (third) and Sir Des Champs (fourth) have both been entered, with the latter's trainer Willie Mullins having won the last two renewals of Irish jumping's flagship race, and eight in total.

He has put in Quel Esprit too, while Henry de Bromhead's Sizing Europe has been given an entry as the trainer assesses his options.

Nicholls has back-up in jnwine.com Champion Chase winner Kauto Stone with Jonjo O'Neill giving the option for Ryanair star Albertas Run.

Albertas Run, who won the Ryanair in 2010 and 2011, was runner-up to Riverside Theatre in the most recent renewal of the Festival event as part of a fragmented campaign last season.

O'Neill is, however, currently favouring a trip to Ascot rather than Leopardstown.

He said: "We put him in the Hennessy just as an option, really, as I want to get a run into him.

"I would have thought he'd be more likely to run at Ascot (Ascot Chase)."

Other notable Irish contenders are Joncol, China Rock, Roi Du Mee, Seabass, Prince De Beauchene and Bog Warrior.

[mayo]

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
0 21-111 Sizing Europe44 11 11-10 Henry De Bromhead — 161 178
0 41-121 Tidal Bay43 12 11-10 Paul Nicholls — 171 178
0 11-113 Flemenstar43 8 11-10 Peter Casey — 147 175
0 2/123- Albertas Run302 12 11-10 Jonjo OŽNeill — 165 173
0 5841-5 China Rock43 10 11-10 M F Morris — 156 172
0 111-24 Sir Des Champs43 7 11-10 W P Mullins — 159 172
0 F7-1P7 Kauto Stone14 7 11-10 Paul Nicholls — 94 170
0 3-3361 Quito De La Roque23 9 11-10 C A Murphy — 117 168
0 3-F111 Bog Warrior16 9 11-10 A J Martin — 109 166
0 1113-0 Quel Esprit265 9 11-10 W P Mullins — 147 164
0 1/51-1 Prince De Beauchene44 10 11-10 W P Mullins — 110 162
0 11113- Seabass301 10 11-10 T M Walsh — 157 162
0 511112 Roi Du Mee23 8 11-10 Gordon Elliott — 116 161
0 7-3523 Joncol23 10 11-10 Paul Nolan — 99 157
0 1P17/7 Pandorama43 10 11-10 Noel Meade — — 102
0 211/4- Mail De Bievre509 8 11-10 Tom George — — —

[Yeehaa]

Dunwooody


Beef Or Salmon was the other horse has dominated the contest in recent years - winning it three times, while although deemed a Gold Cup trial, since the race was first run in 1987 we've actually only seen two horses - Jodami (1993) and Imperial Call (1996) - land both races in the same season.

So is that going to change this season? Well, it easily could as leading Irish chasers Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs dominate the betting ahead of Saturday's race, and with the pair currently priced 5/1 and 12/1 respectively for Cheltenham's Blue Riband then whichever horse wins this weekend is sure to shorten up in the ante post market.

Yes, if Flemenstar, who is out to prove his doubters he does stay 3m, wins there is still a chance that he could opt for either the Ryanair or Champion Chases - being entered for those two races as well as the Gold Cup - but with Sir Des Champs there is no such worries as win-lose-or draw he'll be Gold Cup bound.

We last saw them both running a close third and fourth in the Lexus Chase - with just Ÿ of a length separating the first four home that day. Of course it's not just a two-horse race with the likes of Quito De La Roque and last year's winner Quel Esprit in the race too, but, for me, I'll be amazed if the winner isn't either Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs.

With Flemenstar on a tiny recovering mission over this trip then there will be plenty of punters willing to take him on again as his petrol tank seemed to empty very quickly after jumping the last in the Lexus. However, those willing to give him another chance will be hoping he's ridden with a bit more authority. Yes, he was always up with the pace last time, but every time he made 1-2 lengths at his fences he was pulled back into the pack in order to preserve his stamina. It's a tricky one as it was his first time over that trip, but I suspect jockey Andrew Lynch learnt bundles from the race and we could see a slightly different approach this time.

Sir Des Champs on the other hand is a pure stayer and, therefore, connections will be hoping it's a strongly-run affair as he was doing all his best work in the closing stages last time out. That was also only his second run of the season, so he should be spot-on in terms of fitness here and with the Willie Mullins camp landing this race a staggering 8 times since 1999, including for the past two seasons, then I think Sir Des Champs looks the safest option.

Whatever happens on Saturday we'll certainly be a lot clearer on which path Flemenstar will take at Cheltenham, while if Sir Des Champs wins with authority then his current Gold Cup price of around 5/1 will vanish without trace as he looks end up in the winners' enclosure at the Cheltenham Festival for the third successive season.

If you like your trends, then here are some ahead of Saturday's Irish Hennessy Gold Cup....

Irish Hennessy Gold Cup Trends

10/10 - Ran within the last 6 weeks

10/10 - Favourites placed

10/10 - Won over at least 3m previously (any code)

10/10 - Raced at Leopardstown (fences) previously

8/10 - Won a Grade 1 Chase previously

8/10 - Ran in the Lexus Chase (Leopardstown) last time

8/10 - Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting

8/10 - Won by an Irish-bred horse

7/10 - Winners that went onto race at that season's Cheltenham Festival (no winners)

7/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out

7/10 - Won between 3-5 times over fences (rules) previously

7/10 - Won by a horse aged 9 or younger

7/10 - Winning distance - 3 lengths or more

6/10 - Favourites that won

6/10 - Won over fences at Leopardstown previously

6/10 - Officially rated 160 or higher

5/10 - Winners that went onto race in that season's Gold Cup (no winners)

4/10 - Won by the Willie Mullins stable (won the race 8 times in all)

4/10 - Won their last race

2/10 - Won by a UK-based stable

[mayo]

Good video here Ruby doesn't think Flemenstar will stay ...

http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/racing_festivals.php?Irish-Hennessy-Gold-Cup-Chase-Trends-171

[Statto]

As a festival guide


The Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup is arguably Ireland’s premier three-mile chase in terms of prestige but the Lexus Chase has certainly usurped it as a Gold Cup guide with four of the last eight Blue Riband runners taking part in the Lexus but we have to go back to when Imperial Call completed the Irish Hennessy-Cheltenham Gold Cup double in 1996 to find the last time a representative for this coming Saturday’s race won the ultimate chasing prize. The Hennessy was unfortunate in this race last season however as Synchronised was an intended runner but wasn’t pleasing enough to take his chance and the winner, Quel Esprit, was withdrawn from the Gold Cup on the morning of the race.

[Statto]

5 declared for the Hennessy Gold Cup - Bog Warrior, Flemenstar, Joncol, Quel Esprit & Sir Des Champs

[mayo]

1 Bog Warrior(150) Gigginstown House Stud (AJMartin) Bryan Cooper 11,10
2 Flemenstar(171) Stephen Curran (PCasey) AELynch 11,10
3 Joncol(150) Mrs K. Browne (PNolan) Robbie Power 11,10
4 Quel Esprit (FR)(158) Red Barn Syndicate (WPMullins) Paul Townend 11,10
5 Sir Des Champs (FR)(166) Gigginstown House Stud (WPMullins) Davy Russell 11,10

[mayo]

As Donns biggest stalker it fall on me to reveal his latest...

Here’s one theory.

Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs have met twice so far. On the first occasion, in the John Durkan Chase run over two and a half miles at Punchestown in early December, Flemenstar won the race and Sir Des Champs finished second, five lengths behind.

On the second occasion, in the Lexus Chase run over three miles at Leopardstown in late December, Flemenstar finished third in the race behind Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, and Sir Des Champs finished fourth, a short head behind Peter Casey’s horse.

So, in both of their meetings to date, Flemenstar has come out on top. Two and a half miles, three miles, right-handed at Punchestown, left-handed at Leopardstown, it hasn’t mattered. According to the results, Flemenstar is the better horse, and it is correct that he should be favourite in front of Sir Des Champs for tomorrow’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown.

Here’s another.

Sir Des Champs was making his seasonal debut in the John Durkan, whereas Flemenstar had already had a run, running out an impressive winner of the Fortria Chase at Navan, in which he had beaten the former Champion Chaser Big Zeb.

The two-and-a-half-mile trip of the John Durkan was short of Sir Des Champs’ best, and was quite possibly Flemenstar’s optimum. So, actually, the Gigginstown House horse may have done really well to get to within five lengths of Flemenstar.

The Lexus can be excused too if you want it to be. Sir Des Champs’ jumping was not as good in the Lexus as it usually is. He made a fairly bad mistake at the first fence down the back straight, he was slow at the next, he wasn’t as fluent as he can be all the way down the back straight, and then he was slow at the second last fence just as the pace was increasing, which left him playing catch-up.

It wasn’t like him. He was such a super jumper last season until he made a bad mistake at the last fence in the Grade 1 novices’ chase at Punchestown in April. Actually, Willie Mullins said this week that, until he made that mistake at Punchestown, he thought that he was one of those horses who would just never make a mistake over his fences.

Maybe it was the soft ground that was doing it in the Lexus, maybe he just doesn’t jump out of it as well as he jumps off good ground. Maybe it was down to the fact that he is being trained to peak on Cheltenham Gold Cup day, that the expectation was that the Lexus Chase would bring him forward again.

In that context, maybe he did remarkably well to finish as close as he did, just three parts of a length behind the winner and just a short head behind Flemenstar. Therefore, this theory goes, he is the more likely winner of tomorrow’s race, and he should be clear favourite.

The latter hypothesis wins out for me. It is reasonable to expect that Sir Des Champs will improve at least a little, potentially quite a lot, from his Lexus run. Flemenstar, by contrast, was probably at his peak on Lexus day. He may have been at his peak on John Durkan day. Also, the ground will be better tomorrow than it was on Lexus day, and that should help the Willie Mullins horse.

On top of that, Peter Casey’s horse still has to answer the stamina question. He didn’t truly get three miles in the Lexus, so how is he going to get it tomorrow? Ride him more conservatively, in behind horses, put him to sleep until after he has jumped the last? Maybe, but he is not a horse who does sleep too easily in his races, and how many horses can you remember seeing still on the bridle going to the final fence in a Hennessy?

Ride him more aggressively, out in front, utilise his jumping, get them at it, establish a race-winning lead before they ever get to the final fence so that Andrew Lynch could get off and lead him over the line if he needed to? Possibly, but do you think he would be able to get far enough in front of Sir Des Champs? There is a chance that he would, but it is more likely that he wouldn’t.

The tactics are fascinating. So is the presence of Bog Warrior. The Tony Martin-trained gelding is there to run his own race for sure, but he is, like Sir Des Champs, owned by Gigginstown, he stays three miles well and he doesn’t mind going along out in front. And if he were to stride along at a fair pace, guarantee that the race was run at a true gallop, ensure that whatever won it would have to fully see out the distance, that probably wouldn’t do Sir Des Champs’ chances any harm either.

[Lester]

Timeform


The Hennessy Gold Cup was the highlight on a cracking card at Leopardstown last Saturday and, although only four runners faced the starter, it was a fascinating renewal, with Flemenstar and Sir des Champs, who had finished third and fourth respectively in the Lexus here in December, renewing rivalry. This time it was Sir des Champs who came out on top and his victory owed much to a canny ride from Davy Russell. Kept much closer to the pace this time, Sir des Champs avoided the mistakes which had compromised his chance in the Lexus and was sent for home two out. At that stage Flemenstar appeared to be travelling best but, try as he might, he was unable to get on terms with Sir des Champs in the straight. The winner now has a Timeform rating of 174+, which means there is very little to choose between the quartet at the head of the ante-post market for the Gold Cup in bare form terms, but the longer trip seems sure to suit Willie Mullins's charge who has yet to taste defeat at Cheltenham. This defeat surely puts an end to Flemenstar's Gold Cup aspirations, with a tilt at the Champion Chase now a reported possibility although connections have yet to confirm where he will go next.