Lanzarote Hurdle 2013

[mayo]

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 4U21-1 Bearīs Affair35 7 11-12 Nicky Henderson53 Jeremiah McGrath5 152 142 154
2 211-32 Black Thunder49 6 11-5 Paul Nicholls71 Harry Derham5 145 157 158
3 7-0311 Loose Chips17 b 7 11-0 Charlie Longsdon67 Nick Scholfield 140 138 150
4 141-2 Oscara Dara26 8 11-0 Nicky Henderson53 Barry Geraghty 140 128 154
5 1F-800 Son Of Flicka35 9 11-0 Donald McCain52 Adrian Lane 140 149 156
6 206P-1 Araldur35 9 10-7 Alan King43 Robert Thornton 133 150 156
7 P26-7U Topolski42 t 7 10-7 David Arbuthnot75 Tom Cannon3 133 123 161
8 11-6R7 Captain Sunshine55 7 10-6 Emma Lavelle25 Richie McLernon 132 149 157
9 1-1102 Victor Leudorum161 t 6 10-6 Charlie Mann83 Dave Crosse 132 114 158
10 3P-PP2 Oscar Prairie7 8 10-4 Warren Greatrex50 Thomas Garner7 130 162 159
11 421-18 Lamb Or Cod49 t 6 10-4 Philip Hobbs61 James Best3 130 146 154
12 5-0098 Secret Edge17 b1 5 10-2 Alan King43 Peter Hatton7 128 142 160
13 8P-520 Rigidity21 tp 6 10-1 Tim Vaughan60 Michael Byrne3 127 121 160
14 34-61 Buck Magic57 7 10-0 Neil Mulholland29 Dougie Costello 126 145 157
15 31212 Trackmate99 7 10-0 James Evans Liam Treadwell 126 142 153
16 10-545 Sircozy28 b 7 10-0 Gary Moore57 Jamie Moore 124 152 153
17 93-152 Uncle Jimmy26 6 10-0 Philip Hobbs61 Mr T Cheesman7 124 133 149
18 118618 Romeo Americo37 6 10-0 Seamus Mullins Wayne Kavanagh3 124 152 152

[mayo]

Wonder if Brampour will run ? everything below Victor leurorum out of handicap if he does.

[Lester]

http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/racing_festivals.php?Lanzarote-Hurdle-Stats-152

[mayo]

Matt Gardner

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/horseracing-tips/ante-post/lanzarote-hurdle-lets-hope-for-a-bit-of-sunshine-at-kempton-080113-29.html

Black Thunder will most likely be the starting point for many, with the six-year-old hailing from the all-conquering stable of Paul Nicholls. Indeed he has improved with each and every run to date and looks open to further progress still but there is a definite question mark next to his name, mainly brought about by his effort over C&D on seasonal debut in November.

Up until that point Black Thunder had not been tried over further than two miles and three furlongs and his finishing effort that day suggested that he barely stayed the extra two furlongs, weakening after the final flight and looking as though the emphasis on stamina was far from ideal. Admittedly he went some way to dispelling that notion on his next start at Haydock, over a furlong shorter, as he stayed on in taking style, but that was in a race run at a steady pace in which he was giving an overly-patient ride. In a race of this ilk, where a strong pace is possible, we don't want to have any doubts about the one we've ploughed into so Black Thunder can be ticked off the list.

With trainer Nick Williams having won the last two renewals of this contest, with James de Vassey and Swincombe Flame, it would be folly to dismiss his representative Un Bon P'tit Gars, who is arguably the most unexposed participant in the field having taken to the track just three times. The five-year-old has already achieved a fairly useful level of form, looking a very good prospect when beating Moscow Presents at Uttoxeter in a novices' hurdle in October, and he is worthy of his place in this company but it is more than possible that he may find this competitive scenario all too much at this stage of his career.

With the likes of the battle-hardened Bourne and Brampour in opposition it is difficult to nail your colours to the mast of one so inexperienced and, for now at least, it could pay to look elsewhere.

Lamb Or Cod would make plenty of appeal were it not for his trainer, Philip Hobbs, suggesting that the six-year-old was suffering from a breathing problem when running below form at Haydock on his latest start. As has been well documented by the same stable's Wishfull Thinking, horses with breathing difficulties can often be hard to predict which makes it tough to place our faith in him.

The Nicky Henderson-trained Bear's Affair could well turn out to be the best horse in this field, with the manner of his Aintree success in December sticking out like a pasty Brit in speedos lounging on a Canarian beach, but a 12 lb rise in the weights incurred for that win will make life marginally more difficult for the current market leader, which leads me to be inclined to look away from the head of the exchange.

Emma Lavelle hasn't had the best of seasons so far but there is a sneaking suspicion that her luck, and that of her stable, may be about to change with Captain Sunshine fancied to land the spoils in the Lanzarote. The seven-year-old progressed throughout most of last season, winning novices' events at both Kempton and Cheltenham, with the latter mentioned win, in a useful race, representing his best effort to date and leaving the promise of more to come. Although he is yet to deliver this season it is possible to make excuses for her performances, likely to have been in need of his reappearance before blotting his copybook slightly when refusing to race at Exeter.

It is not completely clear cut as to what happened that day as Captain Sunshine didn't plant himself, initially he looked to have taken an extra turn at the crucial moment just as the field were preparing to depart. It would be difficult to recommend him on the back of that but we can rest assured in the fact that he has since consented to race at Cheltenham, where he shaped better than the bare result in a well-contested handicap, and it is worth remembering that Saturday will denote just his fourth start in handicap company.

Having found the strength not to back all of the above horses, despite many of them making appeal, we have honed in on Captain Sunshine as the one we want to side with on Saturday. Bear's Affair is most likely the best long-term prospect in the field and Black Thunder would probably win were this race staged over three furlongs shorter but the present is what matters and Captain Sunshine can bring it home, potentially teeing up my seventh visit to the Canaries. We can but hope.

Recommendation:
Back Captain Sunshine @ 23.0 in the Lanzarote Hurdl

[Lester]

Barrys Blog
Nicky has two declared for the William Hill Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle over two miles five and I left it to him to decide which I rode out of top weight Bear’s Affair and OSCARA DARA (2.40)

Bear’s Affair won well at Aintree last time when Jerry McGrath rode him and won by ten lengths claiming 5lb. The horse has been upped 12lb and not using his claim again would have left him 17lb higher.

In any case, Oscara Dara is quite handy himself and he did pretty well for me when I rode him for the first time at Punchestown in April and he beat Malt Master three and a half lengths on heavy.

Although he was a close second to Cantlow on his only run since in a two mile novice chase at Plumpton in December, he’s given the impression that he’ll probably fulfil himself over hurdles this season.

A move up in trip should suit too and I’ll be surprised if he’s not competitive off a debut mark of 140.

[Statto]

Age
All of the 16 winners were either aged 5, 6 or 7, but 10 of those winners were aged 6


Last Completed Start
11 of the 16 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start, 8 of those won


Days since run
10 of the last 16 winners had their last run more than 3 weeks ago, the other 6 all ran within 3 weeks


Official rating
14 of the 16 winners were rated less than 138

Weight
11 of the 16 winner had carried less than 11-00 to victory


Course form
11 of the last 16 winners had either won at the course or were having their first run there, the other 5 had never won there before

Victor Leudorum , Buck Magic best fit to these trends

[Statto]

11/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
11/11 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/11 – Never won a hurdles race over this trip (or longer) previously
9/11 – Winning distance – 2 ž lengths or less
8/11 – Won exactly 2 times over hurdles previously
8/11 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
8/11 – Won by a horse that carried 10-11 or less
7/11 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
7/11 – Won by either an Irish (4) or French (3) bred horse
6/11 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Won their latest race
4/11 – Had raced at Kempton before (3 won)
3/11-* Favourites that won
2/11 – Won by the Nick Williams yard
The average winning SP in the last 11 renewal is 10/1
The Gary Moore stable have won the race three time – 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (31 runnings) there have been 28 winners aged 7 or younger

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Buck magic for me ...


Neil Mulholland, trainer: “He's a nice horse and has a great racing weight. He's had one run for me and one win, at Cheltenham, and you can't ask for more than that. He's impressed me and he's improving. They all need to work their way up the handicap and I hope he's still going up, I think he can make his presence felt.”

[mayo]

Verdict

I think the favourite Bear’s Affair is very beatable and*wouldn’t*put anyone off place laying him on Betdaq at 2.26 or less. Oscara Dara looks handicapped about right on what he’s done so far, but being lightly raced, with a top trainer and likely to improve for the step up in trip I think the current 7.4 on Betfair looks a cracking bet. The 11/2 with William Hill is more than acceptable too. I would also*recommend*an EW bet on Araldur at 12/1 with Coral.

Declan megaher ^

[mayo]

On the face of things, Kempton's Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40), which remembers Fred Winter's 1974 Champion Hurdler (also a wizz around this course, where he won*the Christmas Hurdle twice), looks the hardest of the day's puzzles to solve, with plenty of in-form runners amongst an 18-strong field, two of them trained by Winter's former assisstant, Nicky Henderson.

Henderson, who has an outstanding record at this course, with a 30% win rate over the last five seasons, is represented by Bear's Affair and Oscara Dara. The former, who heads the weights, now competes from a BHA*mark of 152, courtesty of a decisive win at Aintree five weeks ago*under today's jockey, the talented claimer*Jerry McGrath. To my eyes, a rise of 12lb for this effort looks harsh, particularly*testing going*at Aintree*stretching some of*the fields out to a*far greater degree than would otherwise have been the case.

By contrast, it's easy to argue that Henderson's second representative, Oscara Dara, currently rated 140,*looks more than fairly treated for his handicap bow. His proximity to some of last season's leading novices, when fourth to his stable-companion Darlan at Aintree on just his second appearance over hurdles, plus the subsequent efforts of those he tanned when taking a decent novices' contest at Punchestown on his final appearance of 2011/12, provide plenty of evidence to support this theory, and though collateral form doesn't always work out, it's surely interesting that stable-jockey Barry Geraghty is on board.

Clearly, his reappearance over fences,*when second to the smart Cantlow at Plumpton, which on the face of things looked a sound enough performance,*didn't please everyone and it looks as though his chasing career has been put on hold, at least*for the moment.

Paul Nicholls' BlackThunder, who flew home when runner up at Haydock seven weeks ago, the progressive Loose Chips, bidding for a hat-trick, together with Buck Magic and Araldur are all in-form rivals with feasible chances. However, to me, Oscara Dara could prove to be a blot on the handicap and, as such, win or lose is well worth a bet.

[mayo]

^ ex timeform Jim

[mayo]

The winner was well marked up here