Welsh Grand National 2012

[Guest]

TEAFORTHREE is 7-1 favourite to deliver a home victory in the Coral Welsh National and to become the first Welsh-trained winner of the race since Norther in 1965.

The Rebecca Curtis-trained Teaforthree, a Cheltenham Festival winner based in south-west Wales, featured among entries for the December 27 marathon revealed on Wednesday.

Among his potential rivals are the first three home in the race last year: winner Le Beau Bai, who is 10-1 for the repeat, the second Giles Cross, 12-1, and third Cappa Bleu, who is 25-1.

Also prominent in the sponsor's betting is Badger Ales runner-up Michel Le Bon at 10-1, last weekend's Grade 3 Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase second Bradley at 12-1, and Monbeg Dude, who finished a neck ahead of Bradley at the weekend and is also 12-1.

The race will form the centrepiece of the last fixture broadcast on BBC for at least four years, as Channel 4 will be the exclusive terrestrial home of racing until 2016.

This year's running of the Welsh National will also mark the 40th anniversary of Coral's association with the race, making it one of the longest partnerships in sports sponsorship.

Welsh National
Coral: 7 Teaforthree, 10 Michel Le Bon, Le Beau Bai,
12 Giles Cross, Bradley, Monbeg Dude, 14 Harry The Viking, Universal Soldier, Roalco De Farges, Alfie Sherrin, Raz De Maree, 16 Tidal Bay, Hey Big Spender, Across The Bay, Hold On Julio, Join Together, Becauseicouldntsee, Soll, Quartz De Thaix, Alfie Spinner, Viking Blond, Master Overseer, Lie Forrit, 20 Cannington Brook, West End Rocker, Chicago Grey, Royal Charm, Baile Anrai, Harouet, 25-1 bar

[Statto]

Paul Jones

Recent course form has been a big advantage as 13 of the last 21 winners were given some match practice at Chepstow earlier in the same season. Eight of those ran in the Rehearsal Chase which was moved to Newcastle in 2005 so the Chepstow factor should in theory not be as important but Le Beau Bai extended their high strike last season having won at the course earlier in the month and the previous two winners had also won at Chepstow before in another season so Chepstow form remains highly significant, be it this season or in the past.

One race to treat with real caution as a guide, however, is the Hennessy Gold Cup. Given that second and third-season chasers have dominated both these staying prizes and there is only a month between the two races, a logical conclusion would be to support a horse that performed with distinction in the Newbury showpiece. However, no Hennessy runner has won the Welsh National since Playschool completed the double in 1987 and last year the Newbury hero, Carruthers, joined the likes of Ghofar, Party Politics, Lord Relic, Fiddling The Facts, Young Kenny, Kings Road, Take Control, Hedgehunter, Sir Rembrandt and Dream Alliance in being a leading fancy at Chepstow off the back of a big effort at Newbury (bar Sir Rembrandt who only got as far as the third fence) without success. In fact, of those mentioned, only Carruthers did not start favourite or second favourite. It almost certainly leads to the conclusion that any horse that excelled in the Hennessy would, in all probability, need more than a month to recover from those exertions as these are both brutal races.

Recent course form has been a big advantage as 13 of the last 21 winners were given some match practice at Chepstow earlier in the same season.

The tide is beginning to turn as far as weight carried is concerned as the Welsh National was formerly a race where supporting a horse carrying a big weight, or even over 11st for that matter, was like throwing money down the drain. Carvill's Hill's goliath performance to win by 20 lengths off top weight off 11st 12lbs back in 1991 was dismissed as a freak year and it took horses of the class of Master Oats and Halcon Genelardais, who then went on to win and finish fourth in the Gold Cup three months later, to breach the over 11st threshold in the next 15 years. Recent trends, however, are by far the most important and four of the last six winners have carried 11st+ including another future Gold Cup winner in Synchronised.

In keeping with the other major handicap chases run in the first half of the season, horses aged in double figures really struggle here. Since Rag Trade took this event back in 1976, only the Martin Pipe-trained Riverside Boy has defied this statistic but that was a particularly poor renewal featuring just eight runners of which six were running from outside the handicap and half were fast approaching veteran status.

The Welsh National used to be a strong favourites' race with the market leader scoring six times between 1988 - 1994 but just one of the last 15 market leaders (Silver Birch) has justified such market support. That said, Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais were long-time ante-post favourites only to be replaced as market leader on the morning of the race and the only two real surprises in the last 38 years were the successes of Earth Summit and Dream Alliance.

The Pipe team were dominant in this race, winning five times in six seasons during the late-eighties and early-nineties but their touch in this contest appears to have deserted them having supplied just two placed runners from their last 30 contenders. Northern raiders have also failed to come to terms with this race of late. Their last winner was the Monica Dickinson-trained Righthand Man back in 1984 despite sending down plenty of leading fancies including three beaten favourites. Paul Nicholls has won two of the last eight renewals including saddling a 1-2-3 in 2005.
At a glance summary

Positives
A run at Chepstow earlier in the season
A victory at Chepstow earlier in their career
Trained by Paul Nicholls

Negatives
Aged 10+
Hennessy Gold Cup runners
Northern-based raiders
The favourite

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 P3-112 Across The Bay28 9 11-12 Donald McCain73 Jason Maguire 153 101 162
2 P0-112 Quartz De Thaix22 9 11-6 Venetia Williams69 147 146 162
3 121P- Giles Cross266 11 11-3 Victor Dartnall33 144 84 160
4 P11-86 Teaforthree35 9 11-3 Rebecca Curtis67 A P McCoy 144 141 164
5 0P1-2 Michel Le Bon56 10 11-3 Paul Nicholls62 144 129 161
6 21B-8 Soll35 8 10-12 Jo Hughes Mark Grant 139 136 156
7 2P17-2 Universal Soldier42 8 10-11 Charlie Longsdon43 138 134 163
8 235-3U Alfie Spinner35 8 10-11 Nick Williams29 138 142 162
9 6P1-P1 Master Overseer22 4x 10 10-10 David Pipe42 137 152 158
10 74-F02 Katenko14 7 10-9 Venetia Williams69 136 115 156
11 767-23 Royal Charm28 8 10-8 Paul Nicholls62 135 122 165
12 FP-023 Viking Blond49 8 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies45 Sam Twiston-Davies 134 106 165
13 4P2P-2 Major Malarkey28 10 10-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies45 133 158 161
14 03-345 Jadanli34 11 10-5 Paul John Gilligan50 Alain Cawley 132 134 157
15 P0P-06 Mon Mome21 13 10-5 Venetia Williams69 132 119 131
16 3R14/6 Triggerman50 11 10-3 Philip Hobbs45 130 98 150
17 13P-U1 Monbeg Dude49 8 10-1 Michael Scudamore 128 130 163
18 1P417 Harouet27 8 10-1 Peter Bowen33 Jamie Moore 128 107 162
19 0650-1 Sona Sasta28 4x 10 10-0 David Pipe42 Mr M Ennis7 127 115 163
20 8P-143 Our Island29 8 9-12 Tim Vaughan47 125 138 159
21 U3-411 3 Cool Operator20 4x 10 9-11 Philip Kirby20 124 126 163
22 46-115 2 Incentivise19 10 9-6 Richard Lee 119 142 151
23 P9R741 1 Arbor Supreme29 4x 11 9-1 Jonjo O´Neill36 114 128 151

[Lester]

It could be a big week for the Tizzard yard, as he has lined up Cannington Brook for a crack at the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on December 27.

"His big target this season is the Welsh National next week as the long trip will play to his strengths and it would highly unusual if the ground weren't testing at Chepstow," Tizzard said. "He is in grand order and I hope he will run a big race."

[Statto]

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 to 9
French bred horses do well
Officially rated 142 or higher
Horses carrying a penalty also do well
Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
Had 1 or 2 runs this season
Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season
Course winner (or having first course start)
Won over 3M or further
Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+
Second or third season chaser
Finished in first 4 in Midlands National and/or Haydock GN Trial
First 6 in a Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, A King or N Twiston-Davies
Tends to race prominently

[Lester]

Dartnall hopeful...

Giles Cross did a brilliant piece of work this morning and I’m hopeful he will run well in the Welsh National on Saturday, while I think Seebright could be the horse to change our fortunes in the bumper.

[mayo]

GALWAY trainer Paul Gilligan has high hopes his mudlark Jadanli can make his mark in Saturday's Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.

Despite being a 25/1 chance with sponsors Coral, Gilligan believes that his former winner of the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse will give a good account of himself.

"We intend going and our horse will love the ground," said the trainer of his 11-year-old, which finished third in last season's Thyestes Chase at Gowran.

"I've been setting him aside all year for this race and hopefully he might get into the money there. I'm happy with him and he should run well. At the moment Alain Cawley rides him, all being well."

The race was postponed last week due to a waterlogged track, but it is drying up and clerk of the course Keith Ottesen is confident the meeting will go ahead. The prevailing conditions certainly won't be a problem for Giles Cross, which has twice finished runner-up in the Chepstow marathon.

Victor Dartnall's 11-year-old continues to attract ante-post support for the valuable handicap chase, although he'll be making his seasonal debut with Dartnall's stables having closed for a few weeks due to an outbreak of equine herpes.

prolific

However, the Devon trainer believes that lack of a recent run will not be a handicap as he has got plenty of work into his prolific stayer, which has won first time out in the past.

"He seems very well," said the trainer. "It would have been great for him to have had a prep run – he hasn't had one, but he's had a lot of work."

[mayo]

Got to back both of Nicholls I think

[mayo]

Got to back both of Nicholls I think

LEADING Coral Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner, backed on Wednesday into 10-1 from 14-1 for the Saturday marathon, is one of four of the Chepstow big-race entries to have been declared for Sandown's 32Red.com HBLB Handicap Chase at Sandown the same day.

The Nick Williams-trained Alfie Spinner, Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm and Venetia Williams' Katenko are among the 12 48-hour declarations for the £50,000 Sandown event.

Coral Welsh National top weight Across The Bay has also been confirmed for the Sandown prize but only as a second-preference option, suggesting that trainer Donald McCain still intends to aim for Chepstow.

Declarations for the Welsh National, rescheduled to Saturday following the abandonment of Chepstow's December 27 card, are made on Friday morning.

[Hoof]

Paul Carberry is set to pick up a useful spare ride aboard the Michael Scudamore-trained Monbeg Dude in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on Saturday.

Monbeg Dude is due to carry just 10st 1lb, so the young Herefordshire handler needed to find a jockey who is able to manage a light weight.

Quietly supported in the betting and now a best-priced 14-1, the gelding handled desperate conditions at Cheltenham in November when winning the Grade Three Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase.

Tessa Champion, Scudamore's partner and a work-rider at the stable, tweeted: "Paul Carberry's booked to hopefully ride Monbeg Dude for @MichaelScu in the WelshNational @Chepstow_Racing on Saturday."

[Hoof]

Good booking ^

[Statto]

WAYNE HUTCHINSON will partner Universal Soldier for the first time in the Coral Welsh National, in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon revealed on Thursday.


Universal Soldier, second to fellow Welsh National candidate Quartz De Thaix at Haydock on soft ground in November on his only start so far this season, was cut a couple of points to 12-1 by bet365, Boylesports, Blue Square and William Hill on Thursday.
The Welsh National looks unlikely to attract a maximum field of 20 when declarations are done on Friday morning, but should still offer each-way betting to four places, with at least 16 runners lining up.

That suits Longsdon just fine as he said: "He has an each-way chance. He is in great form and will have some headgear on to help him. This has been the plan for a long, long time. He wants heavy ground and three and a half miles."

Fehily's mounts at Sandown will include the Nick Williams-trained Alfie Spinner, who had been well backed for the Welsh National on Wednesday but was on Thursday declared for Sandown's £50,000 3m handicap chase.

[Sprinter]

In-form David Pipe mounts powerful Welsh National challenge with mudlarks Sona Sasta and Master Overseer
David Pipe has started the New Year so well that on form the West Country trainer can be expected to have an impact on Saturday’s Coral Welsh National at rain-soaked Chepstow, in which he is set to saddle two renowned mudlarks in Sona Sasta and Master Overseer.

Pipe’s observation that “Chepstow ground is slightly different to anywhere else at this time of the year” is indeed accurate, and with the race postponed 10 days because of its waterlogged state over Christmas, stamina and an ability to handle bottomless going become the two most important pre-requisites for any aspiring winner.

“Both love the mud and they stay all day, and on their best form, they both have a chance,” he said.

Pipe believes Sona Sasta may be under the odds at 8-1, and that Master Overseer, a gritty winner in testing and heavy conditions at Cheltenham last month, is over the odds at 16-1.

Pipe, who had winners at Musselburgh and Exeter on New Year’s Day, has slipped comfortably and confidently into the driving seat at Pond House since taking over from his legendary father Martin in 2006.

The Welsh National was one of Martin’s favourites – he won it five times in six years – but David has yet to get his name on the Chepstow honours board.

[Statto]

10 Year Coral Welsh National Betting Trends

10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
10/10 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
10/10 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/10 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
9/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/10 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
7/10 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
7/10 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
6/10 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
6/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – French bred
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
The Pipe stable have won the race 5 times, but the last of those wins was in 1993 (Riverside Boy)

Note: Age trends - Because the race was due to be run in 2012 then all horses would have been a year younger (all horses age by 1 year on Jan 1st)

[mayo]

McCoy, while confident of his chances in the 18-runner heat, told At The Races: "With the conditions as they are, it's going to be wide-open. Monbeg Dude is a horse who I always thought might be suited by a real test, there's Viking Blond, Paul's horse Michel Le Bon - you can make cases for a lot of them.

"I've seen that at the moment he's about 3/1 and then it's 7/1 bar and I just don't think there is that big a gap between him and the rest of them, particularly with the ground the way it is.

"Last year he was being aimed at the Hennessy and the Welsh National came as more of an after-thought but this time his season has been very much geared around the Welsh National.

"The extra couple of weeks after Newbury might have helped him and I hope he has got a good chance. He's a pretty easy horse, touch wood he jumps well and he's a pretty handy sort.

"He doesn't have to lead but we'll pop out handy and see how the race is run. Stamina is going to come into play and hopefully he's got more than the rest of them."